Dow Jones Industrial Average
March 11, 2021 update
Elliott Wave Plus
The stock markets have been continuing to the upside recently, enough so that a slight revision to the Dow Jones Industrial Elliott Wave count on shorter term charts is required.
Our long-term targets for the grand supercycle wave 3 top remain the same, in the 41,020 to 43,652 range. Also, the requirement of a 5-wave structure up from the March 2020 low into that target range remains unchanged. Today’s wave count revision is in regard to how the Dow will carve out those five blue (minor-degree) waves to the upside.
The revised wave count (shown in detail on the daily chart in the video) takes three important facts into consideration:
1) The stock market has continued relatively unabated to the upside since the March 2020 low and has now traversed about 70% of the distance required from the March 2020 low to our upper target zone.
2) The upward movement from the March 2020 counts better as a pink WXY double zigzag than as a 5-wave impulse.
3) There is a large, 18-month Hurst cycle trough due around mid-year in virtually all stock market related items. This is because virtually all stock related items bottomed together in March 2020. A current Hurst cycle analysis suggests that that large cycle trough is due in the Dow in about late-August 2021.
Taking those three facts into consideration, our main wave count projects that (blue) wave 1 of an unfinished contracting diagonal is due to end now or very soon, and a sizeable corrective pullback of up to 30% will unfold next through about mid-year (2021). That should be followed by more upside to more all-time highs, with a major stock market top due in late-2022, or more likely, in 2023.
Alternatively, the many trillions of newly printed stimulus dollars will keep pushing this market (artificially) higher with very few pullbacks along the way until it bubbles into a screaming top inside our target range (about Dow 42K). If that’s what’s happening, the major top we are expecting will likely occur earlier (as early as mid-2022), as Hurst analysis (shown in the video) is currently projecting.
– Sid Norris & Andrew Norris
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