Elliott Wave Analysis of American Express Company (AXP) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts to enlarge.
During most of 2013 and 2014, my main count for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was that Supercycle wave 3 topped in the year 2000, and the large expanded flat that followed through March 2009 was Cycle Wave A within a larger Supercycle Wave 4, still underway. While I have other wave counts that have developed for the DJIA (like an expanding Supercycle wave 4 triangle underway since Y2K, and not due to end until 2020), my original count for the DJIA continues to hold up well when applied to AXP.
The above weekly chart shows that the movement up from March 2009 is likely an ABC zigzag, with the wave C (burgundy) of that zigzag being quite weak in angle, actually falling out of the bottom of the corrective “base channel” all the way back in August 2011. Then, despite its inability to continue higher within the burgundy base channel, Wave C (burgundy) continued higher for quite a lengthy duration, eventually lasting 3.75 times longer than wave A did. (Wave A burgundy lasted 59 weeks, then Wave C took 221 weeks). If my main count is correct as shown on the weekly chart, Wave C (burgundy) finished a 5-wave upward impulse that started October 2010 in late December 2014.
Then, as shown on the above daily chart, starting at the December 29, 2014 top, AXP carved out a 5-wave downward impulse, while exhibiting textbook internal Fibonacci wave relationships within that impulse. I believe this was likely wave 1 (burgundy) to the downside of what will eventually be a 5-wave downward impulse, likely to end below the March 2009 low of 9.71, (although it doesn’t have to). Alternatively, the downward impulse that started in January 2015 may be wave C to end a complex black wave 4. Either way, Hurst cycle analysis is suggesting that a significant 20-week cycle crest will develop soon, centered in about mid-May 2015. This expectation of a significant top in May is currently also the case in independent Hurst cycle analyses of the DJIA and SPX, when starting the analyses at the Y2K top.
By the way, my intention is for this post to be the first in a series, covering as many of the Dow 30 components as as I can over the next few weeks, leading into the projected mid-May top.
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