Elliott Wave Analysis of The Boeing Company (BA) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts to enlarge.
This post continues my coverage of individual Dow Jones Industrial Average components.
My long-term Elliott Wave count for Boeing (shown above) indicates that a Supercycle Wave 3 ended in this item in 2007. Importantly, the downward wave that followed into the March 2009 low counts as a clear corrective (5-3-5) zigzag. Then, the rise since 2009 appears to be carving out a corrective ABC, with the wave B within that structure forming a triangle. That triangle is important. Triangles cannot appear alone in a wave 2 position. So a 5-wave move up from March 2009 is not expected.
This logically leads to the March 2009 low being labeled as Cycle Wave A, with the upward movement since 2009 as an almost complete Cycle (teal) Wave B. Cycle Wave C to the downside is therefore due to follow, likely ending below the extreme of Cycle (teal) Wave A. That would complete an expanded flat for Supercycle Wave 4. It is also possible, but less likely that Supercycle Wave 4 will be a “running flat”, with Cycle (teal) Wave C unable to quite make a new new low beyond the extreme of Wave A. A short wave C is less likely though, because wave 4’s typically retrace wave 3’s by 30% to 50%, with a Fibonacci .382 retracement being most common. That would take Boeing stock down to $12.47 in about the year 2020, which is well below the 2009 low of $29.05.
On the weekly chart (above), the Primary (burgundy) Wave B triangle (from May 2011 thru September 2012 is shown more clearly. That triangle also explains why upward movement has been so strong since late 2012. Thrusts from triangles are generally quite relentless. However, once thrusts from triangles are finished, the pattern is complete, and the thrust is typically quickly retraced in full.
Hurst cycle analysis of BA indicates the same thing I’m seeing is so many other items, a coming 4.5-year cycle trough due in early 2016, followed by another in late 2020. I am therefore projecting that the coming downward movement into early 2016 will likely be just Primary (burgundy) Wave 1 within a larger 5-wave downward impulse.
Finally, on the daily chart (above), Intermediate (black) Wave 4 appears to have finished in mid-October 2014. From that point, all that is needed to complete the cycle-degree pattern is a black wave 5 to the upside, internally subdividing into 5 blue waves. It appears that waves 1, 2 and 3 blue are already finished. Wave 4 blue may be complete, but seems likely to extend a bit further. This is because wave 4 blue hasn’t retraced blue wave 3 by at least 30% yet. That would occur at 147.36. A 5th blue wave up would be required afterwards to complete the pattern. Because wave 3 blue was “extended” at about twice the length of wave 1 blue, an extended blue 5th wave is not expected.