Many Elliotticians believe that the US stock market is nearing the end of fives waves up from the 2009 low. We already looked at Boeing (BA). Let’s take a look at another Dow 30 component, 3M (MMM).
The following is my Elliott Wave interpretation of 3M stock (ticker MMM) utilizing a combination of Elliott Wave and its associated Fibonacci price targets, and Hurst Cycle analysis. (Click on the pic to enlarge).
Like many large cap US stocks, 3M is showing five clear waves up from the 2009 low, with the 5th wave (at teal/cycle degree) likely starting at the August 2015 low. Within teal wave 5, 3M appears to have finished waves 1 through 4 (burgundy/primary), with wave 5 burgundy probably still underway. Within wave 5 burgundy, it appears that 5 black waves to the upside are incomplete, with the black wave 3 having either just topped on June 20, or in the process of topping here in July, to be followed by black waves 4 and 5 to finish the structure.
From a Fibonacci standpoint, 3M has already very recently reached two large-degree targets: 1) where teal wave 5 would equal the net traveled of teal waves 1 through 3 times .618 @ 214.11, and 2) where burgundy wave 5 would equal the net traveled by burgundy waves 1 through 3 @ 212.12. However, there is an intermediate degree target that hasn’t quite been hit yet, where black wave 3 would equal 2.618 times black wave 1 @ 215.83. The high in 3M so far was 214.57 on June 20, so 3M came within an eyelash of hitting that target as well.
To summarize so far, from a Fibonacci standpoint, the top could easily be “in”, but it appears that the required Elliott Wave subdivisions to the upside are incomplete. So let’s bring in Hurst cycle analysis for some additional clarity. The screenshot below is a Sentient Trader (Hurst cycles) analysis of 3M starting in June 1997, including the (orange) composite line, which takes all Hurst cycles (up to 9-year duration with this relatively short data set) into consideration and projects futures price direction as a result, if the cycles continue to unfold at a similar tempo.
Admittedly, I had to manually pin a couple of troughs in the analysis in order to even out the phasing, but the resulting general roadmap seems to match up nicely with an unaltered Hurst analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average starting in the year 1966, as well as one starting even further back, in 1928. Notice that the composite line suggests a drop from late July into late September next. That would likely be black wave 4. The composite line then suggests a rally to new highs into the first quarter of 2018. That would likely be the 5th wave in black, and the final intermediate-degree subdivision to complete five large-degree waves up from the 2009 low.
This is the second in a series of posts featuring my analysis of individual large-cap Dow component stocks. A combination of Elliott Wave and Hurst cycle analysis will be utilized on each item. Expect another one within a few days.