Investing Using Elliott Wave
Elliott Wave Plus | Weekly “counts” Webinar Text
February 7, 2021
(This text was auto-transcribed by a software utility)
Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, wherever you may be. This is sid from Elliott Wave Plus. and this is the February seven of 2021 edition of my weekly counts webinar. Where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci. Price targets for many of the world’s major stock markets, commodities currencies and bonds, hearst cycle analysis, as well as a number of other forms of technical analysis will also be considered on all items before we get started. I’d like for you to be aware of my disclaimer. It’s at my website Elliott Wave Plus dot com. You go there, scroll all the way down to the bottom of any page on the site, click on that tab that says terms of service disclaimer right there and it’s there all the time. Please read it in full and mhm If I were to summarize it in one sentence, it would be. There is risk of loss in all trading. Okay, here we go Dow Jones Industrial average.
Stocks (S&P-500 ES, Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA YM):
Super long term outlook is for generally more upside for uh, likely a couple more years. Um, there’s some there’s a cluster of Fibonacci targets up here, mm Between 41,000 and 43006 50 that I believe will um provide um a good, not only a good target, but heavy duty resistance. Um and so really the wave count is that that would be a grand. Supercycle Wave three top and therefore the end of Supercycle Wave five. And that would be up from the 1932 low Cycle wave five. That would be up from the 1974 low, Burgundy or primary wave five Up from the 2009 low and intermediate or black wave five Up from the March 2020. Hello? And I forgot to turn off the video itself. I’m gonna do that right now and there we go. Um And um and then the end of it, I’m not showing them on this chart showing on the monthly chart of five blue waves up From the March of 2009 low. And um so we’re getting awfully close to the end of way, five of five of five of five. Um but probably got a couple more years in the tank here. Her cycle analysis is expecting a top In mid to late 2022 and virtually all items. Um But it’s the way the market’s been rolling lately. Um These tops have been coming in on the late side. The troughs have been coming in on the early side. And so so far up from the March of 2009 low, I think we have a blue wave one complete and we’re in a blue wave to expanded flat at this juncture. Uh The way be within the expanded flat is uh quite extended a little bit out of normal, but not unusual in this mania market, where each leg tenants tense tendency, each leg at any degree of trend has tendency to kind of overshoot um Typical femininity targets. Um You can see the massive divergence that is potentially set up now, but um I think it will only result in a pink wave c down to complete a wave too, And then it’s on up in a way 345 during this period. Um Once wave to blue is complete, be looking for an inflationary situation where during that period from about mid year, this year, Up through um probably 2013, possibly even late 2013, uh we’d see a much weaker dollar that should artificially prop up assets like stocks, commodities and virtually everything else is the dollar weakened substantially, that the outlook hasn’t changed and is a real key to kind of everything that all, all the wave counts across the board and still at this time. So as we move into the weekly chart, you can see, I’m still labelling of the five waves up from the March Low, complete at the early september high. There’s a definite reason why I’m still doing that even though this way B has become quite extended to the upside And it’s now reached where it is 1.61, 8 times the length of wave a. A typical wave be of an expanded flat would be 1.38, 2 times the length of wave A. So that that level was right back down in here and you can see, we’re a bit above that. But the reason I’m counting the move up from uh late october through present as a B. Wave, we’ll see that as we get into the uh daily chart. So the Fibonacci is really a target for the end of the wave. C. Is derived by Extending the length of pink wave, expanding it by .382. That target hasn’t changed, it’s a 2562. And the Dow. Um the alternate is basically protectors count and that is that we’re not going to hit these Fibonacci targets up here, Not looking at those were just simply looking at hell, extremely bullish sentiment is at this time it’s in at record levels of bullishness. Um In many measures it’s um the most extreme, extremely one sided bullish um outlook from the masses that’s ever been seen More bullish in some ways than the 1929 top, more bullish than the 2000 top. And so that would be consistent with a really major top. But because of what I expect in the U. S. Dollar, I think that those extreme levels that we’re seeing there are going to become even more extremes are gonna come absolutely beyond ridiculous extreme. By the time we get to um At least mid 2022, probably up into 2023. Also, There’s a large 18 month cycle trough do mid year this year. And that trough is, the date range for that. Troughed is usually between on almost all items bottomed In March and therefore you move forward 18 months, you get about August. But these these trials have been coming in early hurst is um figuring that that trough is going to come in august possibly july possibly june. So I think as early as june we could look for uh That uh that trough. So the the October late October low in virtually all items was a 40 week cycle trough. And that’s the halfway point to the 18 months and then occurred in late october. So March april may june july august september october six months, six months it took them. And so that traffic came in early. So if you move forward just six months from late october you get in november december january february March april. So it’s possible that um you know these troughs are coming in so early. Just have to be aware that tom I’m drawing them at this juncture early. The expected trough early but it may not be early enough you really need to look for um uh that I’m gonna say as early as May. But here’s the big reason why I continue to expect this move up from the october late october low to be a B. way in pink and that is that has an obvious a leg to it and then a very tiny be leg. And then it’s been shopping overlapping in virtually all items across the board. Mm In that overlapping nature of the price action really doesn’t belong inside of a wave three. A lot of people want to believe yet this had to be the end of wave to because this market just keeps going up and it keeps finding new new levels. But the problem is the price action and in a leeway of the price action reigns supreme. It is the determine the primary determinant. The # one ranked way to determine how to label waves. A close second place is the fibonacci relationships between between the waves and everything else beyond that is really secondary. So the fact that this has been very choppy and overlapping since the mid november low. Um, it would be very, very difficult as an authentic, you know, Elliot wave technician to label this structure is something else. It could hardly be labeled as anything else in my opinion. And therefore I’m sticking with this thing. We’re just getting extended way be In pink. It’s now reached where it’s 1.618 times length away. They, there are examples um, throughout history of extreme way bees that were quite long and one of them was right back here. You know, this, The move up into January February of 2020 Overshot. Where was 1.38, 2 times the length of, of waving. So, um, uh, it’s not not that unusual and in today’s environment where um, trend following al goes, just continue to push on a trend until they’re proven wrong. I guess it’s not really surprising. Uh, and given the sentiment of this way over one side of the boat sentiments we’re seeing in the markets right now. So when we look in real closely at this wave structures, it’s moving up on up actually, this latest dip that we saw the week before last and then the rise to all all time new all time highs in the S&P. No, quite just a few ticks short of it in the, in the dow, but a little short of it in the S&P. I’m sorry, new all time highs in the S&P. The NASDAQ and the russell. It actually has brought a little bit of clarity to this diagonal. So, um, christian Frederick says, what is the ultimate down target quarterly you’re talking about after the grand Supercycle Wave three top is in, in a couple of years. Is that what you’re asking christian if if that’s correct. It is Probably a 90 young crash over a period of a few years, possibly all the way to 19 or 2032, which would be the next K wave. Well, the last K wave low was 1982 in my estimation. And before that, 1932 that was pretty obvious. So there’s kind of a 50 K wave is kind of 50 years ago, also be a substantial crash. Um, so here’s, here’s the, uh, the way I’m counting this now and it is, this is a very impulsive move right here, Very likely in five waves. Five orange waves for wave A and then we got the tiniest of little abc structures for a way to be. And ever since then, this is why I’m counting counting it on the way up abc for wave one in orange than a little abc for two and orange. And then usually one leg of a triangle or a diagonal is complex. And this third wave here was complex and I think it started off with a wave A. And purple being an expanding dr Leading Diagonal. 1 2, 3 for five. So that was that’s a five wave structure that had a number of the strong dips and another strong dip right here. All these dips overlap, easily overlapped into the price of Prior beyond down below the prior highs, then a B wave here and then and then a nice five wave structured upside 123 45 Orange Wave three and in him and a running flat for B. C. Wave. That would be away for so far we really have a perfect expanding diagonal. Wherefore was longer than two, four came down into the price territory of wave one three was longer than one. So now we need an abc structure, a zigzag to the upside to end the pan And this way five in orange must be longer than wave three and orange was. So I’ve measured wave three And I’ve got a minimum target up here of 31665. So if this count is going to hold as an expanding ending diagonal, the market must make its way all the way up there. Um Oh yeah. And so far it’s working out pretty well as a 12345. Wave up structure probably finished And now look for be way back to the way four of one lesser degree. So that would be down to 35 21. And then to move up to slightly beyond 31 665. Hers is expecting a top any day. And um, these dates are fully updated and looking for a move down after this pattern is complete Through March seven approximately Rebound corrective rebound through April one and then on down And uh on down through in five waves. Um a 0.38 to retrace of the entirety of blue way one to the upside from the March low would take us back to 24 3 82. Also a 820.382 expansion of wave A and pink Is at 25-062. That’s my target zone and I don’t think it’ll bottom in August. I think it’s likely to bottom probably in June and that’s why I’ve drawn it. So there’s the dow jones industrial average. Um, I think that it’s um, I’ve got this count pretty well figured out. Um is everything is all the rules are, and guidelines are in place and just looking for essentially a down up one last down up to end this pink wave beef and then looking um to the downside through approximately mid year. Um Let’s see here um diagonals are particularly difficult trading environment frankly for anyone, you know diagonals. It’s are I think the most difficult pattern too until you get real late in the pattern to assess, you know what’s actually happening in the diagonal, it has all the characteristics of correction. The only thing is it continues to gradually trend. And in the case of an expanding diagram which is a megaphone pattern, the end of the pattern, it can be quite aggressive so there’s the dale. Um Yeah all of a sudden to end the week looked like the commercials. Um Not quite as bullish as they have been. And so um seeing a little bit probably a little bit of profit taking here. Even from the most aggressive trend followers. It’s a P. D. The count is the same, You know, the target for the end of the way, five of 5 of five of 5. Um and therefore grand supercycle wave three top is higher up around um Pretty close to 5000. There’s a couple of targets up here when it uh 4600. Another one at 49 31. So I think we’re going to get into the upper 4000s before this um Secular bull market that’s been going on since 19 32. It comes to a close. Um So in the case the S. And P. I’m also counting the March 2009. Low, the very same way as a black way for low intermediate degree. And and then looking at 45 blue waves up into that target zone. Matter of fact, on the monthly chart, I’ve got a target An additional high target of 50 400. And that’s where black wave five Would equal black. The net travel to black one through 3 times .618. Uh Oh that’s usually a good target. So there’s, the target range is really from 4600 to 5400 for the top. Um Within a couple of years same exact situation across the board on the wave count. And the reason I’m sticking with this way be concept. Um uh And and the reason is because of the price action since um about mid november, I’m counting it ever so slightly different. But on the way up and we’ll look at that uh on the on the es contract in a minute. But you can see after the rocket ship up From the October 30 low I think. In this case we get a triangle. And uh and then we once the triangle was finished, the thrust from the triangle is choppy and overlapping. But continuing to trend the very same same sort of pattern and ending expanding diagonal. Here it is on the E. S. Contract. So from the um uh October 30 low There’s a five wave up structure I believe for wave one. I’m sorry Wavey and orange Wave A. In orange. And um this looks like a triangle through here be an orange. And then the diagonal each leg of the Daigle is typically an abc zigzag abc for one abc for two A. b. and in this case an ending contracting diagonal for wave see in Aqua to end purple wave three Than an ACC for four. And we need an abc pattern to finish the move but it must end Above 39 22.75. And so this abc right here isn’t quite enough. And so something else is going on besides the finished abc to the upside right here. And um I’m kind of kind of like the idea of this being a 12345 way wave structure for wave a, get a pull back for wave, be back to the extreme away for one lesser degree and then get 1\/5 wave up, probably topping mid month, mid month in here in february. Um so notice that this also is calling for one last down up to finish the pattern. See if I have anything else would look at the sentiment here. We also have a commercial sentiment on the barrish side, on the S. And P. I think. Um and but the retail traders still heavily long the DSc daily sentiment index, There were 80 88 of retail traders were bullish. Um As late as a couple of weeks ago, you can see that even that pull back that we saw the week before last, they only really moved down to 61 and now they’re all the way back to 80 again. So I don’t think the pattern upside pattern is done yet, but the commercials as a percent of open interest are looking to the short side here. Whereas retail is still heavily long now moving to NASDAQ and Russell. Start with the NASDAQ.
Stocks (NASDAQ NQ, Russell 2000 RTY, Semiconductor Index SOX):
Yeah, so in the NASDAQ, um, I think we had a running flat for the way for black wave force. I’m placing the black way for label On the longer term count at the March of 2020 low, that matches up nicely with some other items, uh with basically everything else. And looking for blue five blue waves up. Yeah, Yeah. As for a fibonacci target up here. Um if you started the 2002 low one, two 1, 2, 3 45 or three that was in 2018, expand. Are they running flat for four then looking for five waves up from there. When I grew this target Of, 23,009 61, basically 24,000 is the ultimate target on the NASDAQ. Um I measured it from the low inside of the way for I think that’s proper Fibonacci technique. Not necessarily at the end of the way for over here, but at the low within the wave for And so as we move in closer on the NASDAQ, same thing extended way be to the upside looking for a pullback for a wave See Back to somewhere around in the neighborhood of 10,000 on the NASDAQ before it moves higher, Eventually topping around 24,000. Probably in 2023. You see some divergence is forming this high, Even though it was substantially higher than the high in in February of 2020, Darcy didn’t make a new time with inward seeing another divergence here, quite a bit of bearish divergence showing. Mhm. And the count is slightly different on the NASDAQ. As we get into the daily chart, I’ve got five ways of complete through the early september high A three wave down structure for an A. And then a very extended way be in pink to the upside and um Way B I think is essentially a zigzag 12345 for wave a. In green be waived. And then a sea wave in uh in five orange waves one 212345 for three. Running flat for four. And now I think we’re getting an expanding diagonal For the orange wave 5 to the upside. So orange wave four, I’ve got it ending on January six, which oddly enough was the exact day of the bottom, on the U. S. Dollar. On my own Against many in many currency pairs. And yet the market has continued to find a way to chop higher. And I think there’s a pattern here is also pretty clear abc for one, abc for two, A. B. c. for three. The little actually probably a b. and then 12345. NBC for three. A. b. c. for four. A. Probably running or an expanded flat here for way be and then away. See in this case um this being an expanding ending diagonal. This leg right here of measured that leg and set a target for the end of purple way five where purple way five must be at least As long as purple wave three it was. And in this case it has already reached that target. Still, I think we need a down up still to go And a fairly extended pink way be target up here would be where pink way be was 1.618 times pink waving. And that’s at 13 733. So you can see how extremely overlapping and choppy this price action has become. I think we’re in an ending pattern here as well. You just need it down up. Um Mhm. Moving along, let’s let’s take a quick peek at sentiment on the NASDAQ Commercials. Still showing a bearish attitude on the NASDAQ he did in the week at a 91. So, so the retail quite lofty commercials on the short side, this looks like it is ready for a pullback, but not the ultimate pull back and this would be down and still one more up to go. Um Russell, the russell has been um marching somewhat to its own drum from, from the March of 2009. Low has been more aggressive to the upside than the other items, but here’s the monthly count on the russell. So a primary, Our burgundy way for low at the 2000 too low black one black too. And then a blue 12345 There would be a black wave three high in 2018, A flat For way forward down through March of 2020. And now um we can Use the net traveled of black one through 3, Take that times .618 and um Add that to the bottom of wave four. And we have a target of 27 27 were kind of racing toward that here pretty quickly. Um, and we’ve made so much aggressive progress along the way that if the market is going to talk, let’s say late next year, This would have to be, in my opinion away, one of a of an ending contracting diagonal waved ones of contracting Daigle’s are the longest wave of any wave in the diagonal. And it’s eaten up so much of this ground to the upside already that that really is the best target for a top. And so in my opinion, they all the russell is well overdue for a pullback. But if these are, this is going to be a contracting diagonal, each leg of the diagonal has to be an A. B. C. And then looking for A B. C. Down from there, notice abc abc abc. So I’m looking for an abc zigzag all along the way. And um this wave to pull back Wave 2s of diagonals typically retrace 66 2. Um wow, I forgot It’s a 66 To 81%. According to the blue book, 66 81%. Well, there would be a really, really big pullback and so I’m just gonna pulling back a little less than that through mid year back to support, which is substantially lower percentage wise, that man. And then we look at the internal wave structures on the way up from the March 2000 and nine, low 12 and then 123 triangle for 45 for three 45. So there’s five waves up for an a. And I think this is an abc running flat that ended in late september and then one two. And I was flirting with the idea of making, because we’re getting new highs here of making this the end of green wave three And this is the end of Greenway for and looking for a Greenway 5 to the upside. But I’m going to show you on a 120 minute chart. Some Fibonacci is on there that I think Strongly suggests that this really was the end of green wave three here late in december and then a green way for low Down through January four. And if this is going to be A green wave five then did I think um, it’s likely going to be all we’re going to have is a down up left in the tank. Like everything else. I think it’s going to be a ending contracting diagnosed. I didn’t put any Fibonacci is on this channel and see a couple. There’s a few femininity targets I’ve been looking at lately. There’s an interesting one then, is where away five would be a 2.618 expansion Off the top of the Green one. So here’s green wine, Expand that by 2.618. And you get basically write it right where we’re at right now. So that’s uh, that’s pretty interesting. Uh huh five equal Um 2.618 expansion Of one and Green. That’s kind of a new Fibonacci. I think I need to put together a new video where I talk about some of the Fibonacci is that I’m finding more effective than the traditional ones that I Made in the Elliott Wave one on 1 Video, so many years of probably 10 years ago now. Um, and these new methods usually involved, well, they always involve a similar log chart, but they also involved the Fibonacci expansion tool. Fibonacci expansion tool. You see if I can find any other interesting targets up here using the Fibonacci expansion tool. There’s another really interesting one and that is um You measure up from the beginning of the five wave impulse Up through the end of the wave four and then you look for Um the 5th wave and let me see here, it’s going to be yeah, That one right there. 22. So there’s another Fibonacci target that’s suggesting we’re basically very, very, very close and that is um The net traveled of zero through four And then a .618 expansion off of that. So five equals a .61 expansion of zero through four. Another way of setting a target and see that we’ve basically reached both of those levels right now. So let’s get into the um but this move up from Greenway for needs to be a five wave structure. We’ve already reached those targets. So how can that, how can that occur? Um kate stepping back just a little bit. The reason I don’t think this is green wave three And the reason I think this is green wave three yet another expansion tool and that is when I expand blue wave 1×1.618. That’s suggesting that this was in fact Green Wave three where Green Wave three was 1.618 expansion of Green wave. Once you measure this, that’s a That distance is a unit of one, take at times 1.618 and run that up from that high there. And that creates this target. Good target for wave threes. where way three is 1.8s at 1.61 expansion of The Green one. And then using the next expansion, Wave five is a 2.618 expansion of green one, basically, right where we’re at right now. I just showed you that one. Another good target though. If this is the green Wave three and this is the green Wave four, then we could look for Greenway five to be 50.618 times the net travel to one through three. That’s a little higher. So I think this was Wave orange. So this was the end of Green wave for this is orange one. Orange to orange three. Probably topping. Now, orange for an Orange five could reach up to 22 94. But it’s also possible that Orange five could truncate and this target for the end of the 5th wave could hold to be, You know, the more important target. So, I’m going to put here orange five mhm could have uh, might truncate and the trunk, it means it after this down, you know, we’re expecting it down up. But after this down move here that it would be unable to match as high as it is basically right now. If this is the end of Orange Wave three, it could fall slightly short of it because an ending Contracting dialogue wave five within an ending, contracting dialogue can truncate. You see that were already extreme overbought territory. So there’s there’s the russell one oddity about the Russell is it appears that the commercials have been buying the Russell Retail also has been buying the Russell. This is the one and only of the four um, us stock indices where the commercials are on the long side, they’re on the short side on everything else. And and it really kind of explains this kind of what I think is an outsized move to the upside and wrestle. And it does appear that there’s been a concerted effort among hedge funds, investment managers, et cetera, to rotate into the Russell. And that’s one of the reasons, that’s one of the reasons why this uh Russell’s just continued so strongly to the upside. While really nothing else has been this this this strong, I showed you, I think it was last week, the rest of the pE ratio on the russell is negative. If you add up the bottom line and you know, take all of the, the balance sheets Of all the stocks and wrestle to almost 2000 stocks. He added up their bottom lines and you you’d end up with a negative number. Um, So uh huh. Yeah, I don’t been zero head is his edge and honestly highly questionable source for information. It’s interesting. I’ll say that for them, they, they write interesting articles, but yeah, yeah. Not buying that one, you know, just, it’s amazing. But how many articles um, come out that just their primary reason, you know, reason for the article is just to predict it everything, what’s, what’s been happening. It’s uh, it’s just going to continue. Everything that’s been happening is just going to continue. But I am, you know, I’ll definitely Um, push back on that one. I don’t know what to do. Um, you know, this is just words. Everyone’s got a reason for this and the reason for that, I’m going to stick to technicals. Fibonacci targets internal wave structures, much better way to go. My opinion because so much of these stories that come out, um, you could get the complete opposite side of that story, any number of places. Um, yeah, here’s some the, on the 240 minute 80 X plus chart, there’s an up move. There’s an apparel right there and it caught this, this really nice by Zone box. But now we’re in a brown box and we have a walter breast here. That’s so that usually when you, when you have a strong trending move and you get a brown box and you get a walter pressure, that’s a crossover right here of this indicator. That’s real indicative of extremely overstretched. And that’s usually a pretty good sign of, of a top. You know, the media wants to make a they want this and this is all just a master plan from the, from the financial propaganda media. They want this to all be about stimulus, and they wanted to all be about, um, um, you know, putting the coronavirus behind us with the vaccinations that’s there desperately holding on to those and they will continue to hold on to those. But that’s you know, because that is the two points that they are trying to make so very, very strongly. It really um kind of sets it to me that just, you know, I’m a contrarian. Yeah, it’s so universally believed that um it’s just hard. It’s hard for me personally because I am a natural contrarian to put any stock in that at all. So, and that their their latest thing is that retail traders, I saw what the billionaire guy that owns a basketball team and he’s on shark tank. Mhm. He was on tv saying that the new retail traders have made traditional stock valuation models passe. And now that is the kind of thing you hear um as you near major tops in my opinion where you know, this time is different. You always hear that near major tops. Um So so quick quick peek and semiconductor index, interestingly. The semiconductor index last week was unable to make it up and make a new high. But I’m sorry. So far this month has been unable to match the hot topic that occurred last month. So the, you know, it’s a subtle difference but it looks like the semiconductors are lacking just a bit. They’re moving to. Okay, um popular stocks.
Popular Stocks & VIX (Facebook FB, Amazon AMZN, Apple AAPL, Microsoft MSFT, Google GOOGL, Tesla TSLA):
I’ll just flash through these very quick. You’ll say I’m I’m gonna get these to you in your screenshots. But on Apple looking for a wave pool of wave for pullback through mid year have targets much higher in on Apple or 274 for for the end of a five wave ab structure that that in the apple stock started In 1982. There’s 1980 right there. So leading An expanding diagonal for one And then a way to down here through 2003. That 1, 2345 Cycle degree wave three Hi uh in 2015 and 2016 cycle degree way for need a five wave up structure to complete the move. And I think we’ve only seen three of those waves Looking for completed four and 5. Mm. Just curious. Yeah. Yeah, it looks like I already tried to and that’s where I’ve got the ultimate target 12 cycle degree away five would be at 1.618 expansion um, off the top of cycle degree wave one and that’s a 2 74. So a week moving into a weekly chart. Uh huh. There is that 2-75 target range up there. So I’ve got this as a 12345 for wave To complete Burgundy Wave three. That was in september early september of last year. And then in a and in the case of ample this way be is not outsize. It’s just really so far made of barely made a new high above the high last year and they had blowout earnings and yet the stock sold off on earnings is still sitting below the initial spike or the high death that that apples that when those blowout earnings came out. So um looking for a pullback through mid year and then on up substantially higher if if If we get a pullback back under a 100 and I’ve got a couple of Fibonacci targets down here. one would be the .618 expansion of wave that’s at 86 11 but another one would be at 92 24. So any price below 100 on ample, I think should be bought And look for the stock to go up to 2 75. Um, amazon looking for a pullback through mid year to complete away for and then on to new all time highs Boeing I think is um, on the, on the, just in the beginning stages of giving it up to the downside through mid year. Disney, I think will also give it up through mid year, but then moved substantially higher. If Disney can pull back to support back down at 1 17, it’s also screaming by the eventual High target. Fibonacci target is to 87 facebook looking for a pull back to the way for one lesser degree through mid year, to be back down around 27 And it also would be screaming by google looking for pull back um Through mid year and then the target for the eventual high in Google 23 85. So I think it’s destined. It’s highly highly over bought currently and um, I think it’s due for a pullback for away for Microsoft, same thing and looking for a pullback for away for possibly a smaller degree wave too through mid year and then much higher netflix. Looking for the finish of away four through mid year and then substantially higher Tesla. Um, Tesla’s, I think flirting with high as it’s going to go looking for a pullback through mid year back to the way for one lesser degree next, if that ends up being a five wave structure, then I think we have Tesla Mev topped And in the case of Tesla to move up from the screaming move up from mid 2019, 1, two, 34 and then one and a two and a three and a triangle. This is very important that triangle is very important because this would be a terminal thrust of the triangle. Now, I don’t know for sure if the top tick is in on the terminal thrust. But um, and look, it could be, it could be finished and whatever whenever the thrust from this triangle is finished, I think the stock is destined to retrace back to the extreme back to the beginning of the thrust of the triangle. That’s all the way back to 400 On Tesla, which is at 900 now. So I’m or 850. So, I’m calling for tests that drop in half over the next few months. Walmart I think is topped in a major top. Looking for a move down through mid year. Things just began or just begun. Okay, quick Look at Vicks. Uh, the smashed down on the VIX has been palpable over the last several days after that, that spike up into overbought territory. Um So it’s right back down on the range. If I look at cycles, um the Fsc cycle program online is calling for More upside and through mid month and then pull back through April 13. We’ll see how the plant pans out. Generally, the cycles I don’t think are working on the VIX. Um So we just had an all time high on the S. And P. And this indicator which has been fairly reliable, is at the upper portion of what I call the resistance zone. Which is many, many many tops have occurred. You know, within that resistance zone. It’s very rare that the indicated that the 13 day exponential moving average of the daily closes on the NyC advanced, the client ratio can spend any time hardly any time above the resistance zone. Usually it it can’t spend any time above it. It finds strong resistance there. So I think we’re at a point of resistance again, looking for a pullback in stocks. Just remember I’m not, I think we need one more down up The 10 day simple move, 10 day simple moving average. Our 10 week simple simple moving average of the put to call ratio is flattened down and is acting real bonomy down here. Ah So looking for it too term as a sign on a weekly chart of a top in the markets that really hasn’t turned yet. No on the this is the daily chart. So that last chart was a weekly chart. This is the daily chart and we aren’t starting to see a little bit of a bounce in the put to call ratio. And that is typically when this is moving up, that is bearish for stocks. So we’re seeing a sign uh bearish sign. Um only put to call ratio indicator. This chart I don’t talk about very often, but it is just amazing. Here we are at all time highs in February of 2021 and look how weak this indicator spent. Uh this is the 89 weeks simple moving average of the advance decline line and there is a usually a lag of about three years from the peak of this indicator to the market to the next all time high. But you can see there was a big divergence into this peak really hear that was suggesting that the high in early september might be a more important high than what it ended up being. So, this all of this move up has been against the grain huge divergence, admittedly this is a lagging indicator, but it is interesting to see uh hell the market appears to diverged away from this indicator uh that usually peaks about three years back in 2000. This indicator peaked in 1997. And then we didn’t get a top till 2000, there was a three year delay. And then this this indicator peaked in October 2004, and we didn’t get a top until October 2007, an exact three year delay there. But in this particular case, This indicator peaked in February 2014. You know, it Also have a secondary peak almost as high in September 2017. So we’re about three years past that high. So ah very interesting to see how the market has managed to somehow continue higher when there’s so many different signs that it probably shouldn’t have been able to do it. And it’s it’s all about pd ratio. I mean the A. P. D. Ratio in S and P. Right now is something like 42 or something. When I first started getting interested in stocks Back in the early 1980s, I got my first really good job selling computers Uh in 1982 I was 24 years old. And uh this is during the explosion of the personal computer. And I mean we were selling IBM XT s With dos 3.1 With a tin megabyte hard drive in a monochrome monitor for five grand as fast as we could pack them up and sell them out the door. And if you want to dot matrix printer with that then there’ll be another $1000 on top of that. Then you then and then your software on top of that. It was absolutely the most supreme time to ever be in the personal computer business as businesses started feeling like they needed to computerize for the first time. But and I knew about stocks like Microsoft and many others real early in the game when they were just penny stocks. I just bought a few shares back then and held onto him all these years. You know, I wouldn’t be doing these webinars, I can tell you that. But um the uh um I remember reading investment books at that time That um from value investors that they would refuse to buy any stock with a p. d. ratio of over 12 and they really wanted to find stocks, buy and hold stocks with pd pd ratios, You know in single digits maybe around nine. And anything with PD ratio of 14 or 15 was considered very richly valued. Well the pd ratio today on this and the entire S. And P. As I believe, 42 that’s what that is how the market has reached some of these levels. And that’s why once the the grand supercycle Wave three top is in if the PT raised in order to get up to there. Since the PD ratio apparently has disconnected itself from earnings all together, we could have Pridie ratio in the S. And P. Of 60 or maybe 80 by the time we get to 2023. And that is how the market could crash 90 from there. It would take that big of a crash to get back to what was considered to be value and, you know, value, proper valuation Based on many, many books that were when I first started investing back in the early 80s. Um Anyway, on on the transports Looking for a dip through mid year and then on up, the eventual target is 195 23. Same, same, Everything is the same accounts the same on the, on the all these items. Looking for the main difference on the transports is instead of um thinking that the five waves upended back in september and looking for expanded flab, Just figuring five waves up is ending now and then looking for a way to down through mid year. Same thing with utilities, X L. E. Um hurst is expecting a pullback, continue to pull back through mid middle of february is all and then on up this one could um the large cap oil could I think peak late in March and but ultimately still looking for a pullback to an 18 month cycle trough. No different here through about mid year. It’s just different the way it gets from here to there. It is different and probably the reason is because these stocks are not is over valued is many of the other stocks after having been beat down for a long, long time. Mhm. So here’s the shorter roadmap on Excel. Mhm. Um I think it’s going to turn to the downside and and and finish this move down. Um hearst says february 13. The Fsc cycle program program says late March. So I’ve got it going down into early March and then shooting up higher from there. So we’ll see. I I don’t think the absolute top tick is in on the crude oil yet but I think it’s really close. Uh So I’m looking for move to the downside on Excel E for the next few weeks. Um Banking banking is looking very toppy. It’s been very overbought. Uh I think five waves up has finished on banking and it’s time for it to turn and move down through mid year. Here’s here’s an item that even though the hearst is calling the same March Low a The same nine year cycle trough about everything. It’s uh suggesting that um and they may not bottom in august or july or june, it probably my bottom like me. So looking for that pullback through mid year. Here’s a closer look, right? Um pot stocks. I think it probably moved up about a size they can go and are going to. And I’ve noticed that there’s all kinds of to all of a sudden there’ll be real busy talking about marijuana stocks again. And this is um And when that starts happening on T. V. Look out, uh Looking for a substantial move to the downside through mid year. Next uh I. B. B. Um continues to thrust up out of this strong hole. It’s overshot my target by a little bit. But this does look like a triangle to me. I think this is a terminal thrust. When it’s done it’s done looking for a pullback through mid year. Um Real estate is um expecting a peak very soon. Here’s here’s a really interesting thing about real estate. Mhm. This upward movement and since March on real estate is there’s no way that’s an impulse that I can see. It’s very choppy and corrective. It’s all built in threes. Yeah. Mhm. And hearst. So a lot of this road map that I’ve drawn up on real estate is strictly based on the price action and then some of it is on hearst. Remember there’s a pull back through mid year and just about everything and um yeah you can see the Her states and everything but you know Greg you ask what this is based on why would I be so bearish for this being away one in real estate down here through March And we’ll be putting in a. two and then another one too. And we wouldn’t get be an all new all time highs in Mid 2022. Like in so many other items we’d be at another secondary peak. And the reason is because the price action. I don’t know how to call account. That is I guess the only way I can see potential way to counted as as an impulse would be as a Leading diagonal and with three waves up for one 2345. And so it will be very close to the ending a contracting leading diagonal possibly for wave one. This could be a wave two and then it goes way on up higher. We’ll see But definite you’re not impulsive price action. Still looking for a pullback through mid year possibly a little later on the home builders as well. X. R. T. Continuing to track it just out of morbid curiosity. This really doesn’t really represent the the retail, the real retailing market very well stocks like Gamestop um at its highest point became the largest holding brakes. RT. And you look at the top five largest holdings, they were all stocks that were um involved with a Reddit short squeeze. And so this has become some sort of zombie item. I’ll continue to track it out of morbid curiosity but thank you for a pullback through mid year. We’ll take it just a quick look at the Baltic dry index. The Baltic dry index kind of a proxy for the shipping sector. Although it’s really Baltic dries, pretty specific. It’s not necessarily about oil tankers or anything dry. You typically means grains and such. Not, not oil, but it’s been going through a substantial pull back which I had warned of. And it’s a big enough pull back now that I’ve got to look at the possibility that what’s going on in shipping is after a wave one to the upside. This is up from the May of 2020 low A wave one to the upside, we’ve got three or we got an A. And A B. of a flat and this might have been has been away one And this could be a wave two and we have 345 Down through the middle of 2021. So that is a new alternate and it’s based on the aggressiveness of these last two candles. To the downside. Uh huh. Um Yeah, I can’t dewhurst on this anymore. I used to be able to dewhurst but the ticker is gone. Um But the last time I did hearst this was a large 18 year cycle trough down here in 2020. And the question is, how is it going to get into the wave three to the upside? Is it, is it going to have a fairly small pullback for wave tubes and ended here or is it going to be a larger pull back then with the last two weeks? No, I think a larger pullback is definitely back on the table. Ah I did warn couple of weeks ago and the webinar showed that a whole bunch of these shippers had shown some fairly ugly looking reversal candles, not all of them. Last week, it’s a green candle and most of them, but the week or two prior were pull back handles. Mm Right. Yeah. These many of these were actually up last week. I would just be awfully careful about continuing to hold here. Um, you know, if you do own some in the sector and you’re well up on them, um, seems smart too. Take some, if not all off the table and look for this. Hold this kind of deflationary pullback through mid-year two finish and then take another look at them. Another reason is, um, oil is awfully close to the top tip to tip. Uh, top target that I’ve had for. And uh, it looks awfully overbought currently on the short term basis. Looking for a pullback possibly all the way back to 30 bucks and that could, that could hurt this sector. Yeah, But just for a few months down to mid year, now moving to minors will start with, you are a uranium. I still think uranium, even though uranium shot up last week and put together a green candle. I think uranium is has finished a 1-1 and it’s involved with a wave to nix. I don’t know what form this wave two is going to take. As I mentioned last week this wave to down through mid year, I’ve drawn on many items as potential zigzag but there is some evidence now, especially in the U. S. Dollar index later in the week that suggests that this isn’t necessarily just gonna be a zigzag. It might be a more complex wave to like a W. X. Y. X. Z. Or something like a flat or um Most likely I would say a combination correction. But the the whole idea of it being a zigzag is all of a sudden in question. There might be something else as it moves down uh sideways and down through the middle of the year. And uranium is definitely an item that’s indicating that yeah it might be something else other than a zigzag GDX. So hold onto your hats because I think GDX is probably going to move up for a few weeks. You know, I’ve been remained fairly bearish on this item, waiting for it to finish a complex correction and I don’t think it’s finished with correcting yet because I think the U. S. Dollar is involved with an upside black wave too. Um It’s unlikely that the GDX would get involved with strong upside wave three until we get to mid year, but it does appear to be putting in a complex pattern. Um And so here’s here’s my updated outlook on on the complex pattern. So there’s GDX along with gold uh topped in early august and it started the corrective move to the downside with an abc. So I haven’t changed that and then then an abc and I haven’t changed that either. So W and an X. When we’re starting to get into some potential for a little bit of an altered roadmap here. This looks like a really clean five wave structure down here for waving. And this upward movement, in my opinion was three wave structure and had a triangle in the middle of it. So that would be pink wave A and so I was I was like, well this is pink Way be before, but I think pink wave B is going to be complex. And it started with a green W. And now this this on friday, we saw a little bit of upward movement on GDX. Um you know, they bottomed on thursday and it’s enough of an upward movement and we saw we saw the U. S. Dollar all of a sudden stop going up on friday and and put together a reversal candle head and back down. So I’m I don’t think the way be is finished. I think it’s not going to finish until March 22 and I think it’s we’re getting a complex abc for a W. Abc for an ex. I’m calling this a little triangle in here and now I’m looking to the upside On G. D. X. over the next several weeks. Uh let’s say about seven weeks, corrective lee in an abc. So if you like to trade this sector, I think there’s some potential for some upside here. I I don’t think it’s going to be strong, but I, you know, GDX closed at 36 34 61 on friday. And I think it needs to top up above $39 but not above 41-81 by the time we get to March 22, so we could see some upward movement. So the question is if we’re going to see some upward movement in this sector, and I also think we could see some upper movement in gold and silver next. Even though it’s just going to be corrective and it’s not going to be a big move, there are some stocks in the sector specific stocks that I think are look more attractive than others from evaluation standpoint in how they look as far as an investment stock. I’m not talking about an investment quite yet because I don’t think this correction is gonna finish until we get over here toward mid year. This would be a trade. So I might point out just a couple of stocks I think would be a decent trade on the way up. And you know, you might look look up taylor dart at seeking alpha, subscribe to his emails and uh look back and he sends out an amazing number of emails where he looks at specific stocks in the sectors, looks at their how their minds are doing, how they’re financing, their balance sheet is doing and all their prospects and kind of give some of the thumbs up and some of the thumbs down. Uh huh. And I think he does an amazing job of that. Uh and so you might look at him some of his stock for some or some hits most recent. You know, he’s been really on fire toning bullish game ever since this low back here in november. And yet these stocks will have gone anywhere yet. You know, it’s still we’re still awfully close to that november low in these stocks. He’s been talking about evaluation and a number of things and I don’t think they’re really gonna take off till mid year but we could get some upper movement here and uh some of my favorites in the sector are as far as evaluation and some of these ideas come from taylor. Uh A U Y A UI has basically moved back down to the way for one last er degree. So this is the March Low 12345. So it has moved back to the way four of one list of degree. It actually did that on January 27 and just a little bit above that. Um We could see, you know, move back up to the top of the range. It’s been kind of an arranged trading mode before one last drop back down here through mid year. Um Is it possible that that’s the end of the correction for a U. Ey And this is a one and A two. And the way to can’t make a new low about mid year. Yeah. I would say that’s possible on some of the better stocks in the group With. And so this is a good one. And the reason I like it and it hasn’t taken off too much from this low from a few days ago yet. And then another one that I like. I’m not picking anyone’s anything that has been um that has already taken off to the upside. I’m trying to find stocks that can can move up over the next few weeks. That’s all from fairly deep um Correction. So sand is another one. This is a royalty company 12 345. So the way four of one lesser degrees right back here. It’s long since would move well below that and still well below it And it has moved back. Almost 50 is were traced very close to 50 of its initial five wave struck. Move to the upside from the March low. That’s low enough where a person could start possibly building a position here. So this is another one that hasn’t, and as you can see it’s been getting beaten down and it hasn’t grown up too much. But I think the stock is good, wheaton is the third one I was going to highlight this week. There’s others. I’m not trying to be all inclusive here, but wheaton Move down on that same date, January 27 to the way 41 lesser degree. Now it spiked up with silver, but now it’s given up a bunch. Now I think it’s possible that this stock does do something like this. Um You know, it gets a bit of a bounce, but with silver you know we could Maybe see like a five wave down structure from the most recent high. So It may return back to the way for one lesser degree of 36 68. It’s A 40 64. This is also royalty company. It was more of a banker to minors. So those three are still pretty low. They really haven’t taken off the upside yet. There’s other stocks that are the darling stocks that I think are probably still too high. Like C. D. E. Yeah is it eventually gonna move a lot higher? Yeah but it’s it’s awfully high A. G. I think it’s got to pull back from that you know. Oh it’s I don’t think the the whole up shoot here was read it it was it was some some nefarious types. They were trying to create a spike and silver. They were taking advantage of silver bugs um being super bullish all the time. And they knew if they could create a story that was similar to the Gamestop story that they could um maybe get get a spike and profit on a very short term spike. And they did get that in. But it was not a short squeeze, it was not a short squeeze because as a general rule there there was not, there’s a few stocks that were heavily shorted in the sector, but generally in the sector there wasn’t a tremendous amount of shorting, there’s a lot of shorting on mucks because they continue to dilute shares and they still are and so this there was a tremendous amount of short interest here and they took advantage of it and literally for just a few days yeah Jacob says can can it move against GDX which which I just read your note Jacob so I’m not sure which stock you were talking about. Uh huh. But yeah there are specific stocks uh A G egg can easily move against GDX. Yeah the problem with Exit got that huge spike and all of a sudden was tremendously overvalued and it was already overvalued. Taylor darts. Last um article about A. G. Said that it was overvalued and and that was when I was down in these ranges. It was already overvalued. This is such a sweetheart stock. It’s very much in the same position as mucks. Was um Back in 2024 2016 Monks went from 66 cents a share to $5 a share in in just a matter of a few months, about nine months. And it was a darling at that time. Well it has since lost that darling status and I think A. G. Because evaluation there’s just too many people enamored with it that it’s time to look somewhere else than other than a G. For for value. And I think taylor’s articles can help with that. I think it S. V. M. Is a possibility now is it? I think all the silver stocks that spiked in association with that nefarious business are probably going to suffer because of that stuff. Um um I don’t think that well I think what happened with and I don’t think it was read it once again it was some nefarious types that infiltrated the red environment. Those guys there are a lot more interested in the Reddit guys. They’re a lot more interested in Bitcoin than they are. Uh huh. Uh huh. Gold or silver. Never made any sense that they were behind this this this was some other types. They were trying to to create a spike and they did and it’s going to hurt the stocks in the short term. But you’re on a G. Kendrick. Can I can I can I put labels on the chart that have some nefarious types of. Yeah, there it is. I’m just calling it an outside zack X Wave on on on on first majestic. So yeah, I will guarantee you Greg, I can always find a way to put labels on a chart no matter what happens. That’s uh the beauty of L. E. Wave. You know some some of the some of the waves could be two, you know, overshoots. But I’m like for instance I’m kind of labelling this as a B. Wave and X Wave be similar to be way and just make certain makes sense. It would be something akin to a be way from. So, but there are so many stocks in the sector that did not participate in all of that tom foolery and are still pretty low and that’s that’s the ones I wanted to show you but you know I think it’s time and I know on many of you are enamored with A. G. But I think it’s time to look elsewhere for value in the in the sector and we’ll get to golden silver later and you’ll see what the outlook is there as well. Um But so bottom the most important bottom line, I have no idea I have is that yeah we could get a bounce here on G. D. X. But I I don’t think it’s gonna set the world on fire. It’s something that can be traded to the upside I think. Yeah but I don’t think it’s finished with this correction. I think that’s been going to be closer to mid year. Um G. D. X. J. So here’s here’s my interpretation of what I think is gonna happen in G. D. X. J. This is a weekly chart. Yeah. I’m expecting some upper movement and I’m expecting a lot. No, you know it’s you know a balance. That’s why I say you can trade inside of a triangle. The amazing thing about some of these junior miners is you know, they move in such large percentages even on small swings that you can trade some of these even GDX J. To the upside and the downside during a triangle like this and and do well. And and during a triangle you don’t get as much volatility as you do during a trend. But if you’re patient and let’s say you’re only trading to the long side um and you take profits quickly, you could profit several times over the next few weeks. To the upside on some of these stocks, I think day trading them. Um Silver miners. S. I. L. You see on this one, I’m counting that Reddit Spike, we’ll call it the Reddit Spike. Even though I don’t think they the founders of those, you know the people that were really doing the taking advantage of the short sellers, I don’t think they were very active outside of mugs and A. G. In the sector and I think they’ve already bailed on the idea. But anyway, the three ways down for W. Three up for an X. And A. Three waves up for a be calling it A. B. Wave and now 12345 You can see that isn’t very bullish but looking for A bounce all the way through March 23. This is a weekly chart in a wave too. So this would be a green one green too, 345 And then um Mhm. Copper miners, this initial move down and copper miners looks like a three wave structure. So I’m not super confident uh of what kind of formation kind of Elliott wave pattern we’re going to see on for this blue wave to, I think we’re going to get a black and blue wave too. And I and I do think five waves up is complete, 12 3, 4 and then 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. That looks like a nice completed five wave up impulse, looking for a pullback through mid year. But the initial move down looks like three waves. Here’s the daily of it. 123 Yeah. Yeah. Or maybe even W. X. Y. It’s not a clean five now it’s bouncing. Uh So I don’t know, you know, the the the overall roadmap is still in place. But here’s I when I was speaking about this earlier, this is a good example of it where I don’t know if this is going to be just a plain chain zigzag down through mid year on a lot of these and we might we might see something else moving on german tax. Yeah. Just getting a note from a subscriber, please send all minor charts respectfully. I’m already taking about 140 screenshots on Sundays after the Webinar. You know that’s why I’m kind of selective on which ones I show. Um You have usually been sending new mountain barrack so send all that’s getting a little greedy. Sorry, there’s a already counting more more stuff and covering more stuff than any other human that has a service. Um The german dax Same basic idea looking for a pullback for way too through mid year and then on up have an eventual target of 18371. Um So the question is, have we seen the top tick tick yet, but because on on uh last week we had it threatened to make a new high came within a few ticks of hitting it. So I’ve had to leave open the possibility that the black way B is not finished yet. Now in the case of the dax This three with 5 wave up five ways up through the early September. Mhm. Um so I’m getting a question looking for taylor stock. So taylor dart and seeking health to, he’s the guy that does all the fundamental analysis on all the miners, a lot of them. So you can go there. I did find his page and he gives you the opportunity to subscribe two his emails and he sends out a bunch of them and sometimes more than one a day where he does, it’s exhaustive analysis on the individual stocks in the sector. That’s a good place to find to look for. Which which stocks currently have the best um head back, which stocks have the best prospects currently and in decent valuation, not too overvalued. So on the dax, my main count is going to turn around right now and move to the downside. Uh huh. The alternate count is that it’s going to slip up to another one more slight new high for the end of and that’s going to be the end of the B Wave and then it’s on down through mid year. So you’ll see that in your inbox, Footsie, Footsie rebounded a little bit last week. But you know who, there’s really not much of a change in the Footsie, I think the footsie has Is, hasn’t completed a five wave down structure yet and I think it will, and that will be a pink wave one and then we get a maybe a running flat for pink wave to through mid March, right? And um continuing on just taking a straw poll, who of the football fans out there, who who’s pulling for the Chiefs and who’s pulling for uh Tampa Bay? Mhm. It’s today’s today’s uh ah question, just curious, I don’t want to say too much about one team or the other. Uh if if I’m, if I’ve got some haters out there, Jacob, Cisco Chiefs, you know, that’s where I’m at traders in Tampa Bay. I asked my brady. Yeah, uh huh. No way brady! All the way. It’s going to be fascinating to see if the old man can beat the young genius. It’s, that’s the, it’s one of the more interesting, you know, storylines behind the Super Bowl in recent years, in my opinion. Um I’m a chief’s fan, so I’m all about Mahomes. Uh huh But I certainly appreciate brady. He’s uh who could argue with the level of success he’s had. Yeah, it’s and video, no lead is safe when they’re with brady, brady is in the game. Uh he’s the master of comebacks many times. Um So when hang sang that the move up on the hand saying so far pretty rough, But I’m calling it a 12 and then this wasn’t rough. This is a really clean, nice fire wave structure, another one. And so I’m looking for a wave to, that lasts through mid year. So we have this um you know when you know that you’re going to get a correction and you’re hoping that it’s that you start, it starts out with a nice five wave structure and that we have a very predictable zigzag. That’s the most beautiful thing that could happen when you’re expecting corrections. If it starts with a nice five about the rights length and then you can do very, it’s very easy to predict moving forward um that what’s going to happen had a in a zigzag. But unfortunately I’m starting to see evidence that that is not what we’re going to get. Um between now and mid year on this correction I’m looking for. Hang Sang is a perfect example. This is a very small little initial move move up. So this this looks like in order to finish Moving back to the way four of 1 lancer degree by about June. It looks like it’s gonna be a complex move. So it’s going to be difficult. I think I think a compliment like a W. X. Y. Double zigzag. And so I’m probably going to have to, I’m just going to remind you on some of these weekly charts where I’ve drawn this exact, it’s probably not going to be a zigzag is going to be something more complex. Uh huh. Um, shanghai. No, no big differences on me. These looking for a pullback through mid year on the shanghai for a wave two and then much higher on the Nikkei looking for a pullback through mid year and then uh, the Nikkei is very similar to the russell. Um, the target for the top Isn’t that far away at 30-150 and it’s already shot up there like a rocket. I think it’s going to get there in the form of a ending diagonal contracting variety. Canadian market snuck up. And that’s the reason is because oil was up. Oil was up last week, as I had predicted. Um, but it’s nearing. It’s getting awfully close now to my upside targets. I think that, that it’s likely to turn here pretty soon within a couple of days. Um, So I think we’re awfully close to an interim weight be high on the Canadian stock market looking for a strong pull back through mid year Australian stock market. I don’t think it’s quite finished five waves up after this triangle one two, three for so, um, I think it’s got a little bit higher. It’s got to go. There’s a target that’s on up there. And if Australian market is going, it hasn’t quite finished the threats from the triangle watch out for copper. It may not have topped which out for the Australian dollar, it may not have topped as well. So, um, But yeah, if this was a triangle here. one two three, I don’t see I see a potential Maybe flat for wave four. But then I think it’s got some more up to go. Is there a proxy for the hang saying? Well, closest thing with E. M. E. M. I think it’s a really high volume popular tradable item here in the US. So yeah, I think um E. M. There’s options available on the M. As well. Uh Nifty 50 Snuck up with one more high. And now from this way for low you can see a 12345. So it really has overshot The best target for a 5th wave up. But now we can see the proper number of subdivisions. So I think that the nifty is at are very very close to a top. Looking for a pull back to the way for one lesser degree through mid year and then brazil also looking for a strong back, strong pull back through mid year before it moves higher. There’s a massive, you know, if if my road map is correct and my assessment is correct on this, there is a massive buying opportunity coming in mid year on lots and lots of things and because the dollar is going to be Weiqing weakening substantially, if my road map is correct from mid year for the next couple of years after that, I think a person, if they’re going to be able to retain, you know, some value out of their hard earned money, they need to be invested, need to be invested about mid year pretty heavily in a number of items in order to keep track. You know, with inflation, I think that’s what’s coming. And so No 1 1 approach would be, hey scoop up as much dry powder as you can possibly get your hands on for mid year and collected between now and mid year. Just get as much dry powder, much of the vegetable funds as you can put together to a nail and mid year and then, and then uh pick some items that have the best chance of moving up during an inflationary period. Uh make sure you’re in there by mid year and stay in And if the roadmap works out, there’ll be a big wave three and we can set some targets and um just sit on it. You know, almost all these roadmaps virtually identical pull back through mid year much higher. It’s junk bonds, highly, highly correlated with stocks, uh huh bonds have been moving to the downside and um it’s reaching a point now where I think we’re going to get a bounce um and the question really becomes, how big of a bounce are we going to get it going to do? It’s impossible to get a massive bounce and as there’s this huge flight to safety through mid year, we’ll find out, you know, that’s that’s still my main count, but I’m looking been looking for a bottom on this move to the downside for a while. Um I will say from, you know, if this is a wave one and there was a wave three, choppy wave three down here and this was a way of four 1, 2, 3 45. So you can see a nice five wave structure down here most recently on this move down on my art. It could it could move just a little bit lower. This targeted 1 46.47 on TLT. Uh and then I think it’s we’re due for a bounce, whether or not it’s going to be this huge balance I’m showing on a lot of these charts. We’ll find out the reason why I’m looking for the huge balance because I think that we need to finish a known L. A. Wave pattern That started way back in the year 2000 of an ending expanding diagonal that would have a blow off wave see to new highs next. So an expanding diagonal And the end of the way forward. The expanding, dying on all this started in the year 2000 was in october of 2018. Got a really clean clear five wave out structure from there. But that this being a diagonal, each leg of diagonal is an A. B. C. This to me was a really clean five. This movement to the downside is a lot more choppy and hesitant. Um, so as far as the price character goes, I’m sticking with this count for now. The component line is bullish from February five through july. So um I don’t know the appointment. If this song can possibly make it that far up on, I may have to adjust the count but there is some upside expected, you know on the ZB contract. Um The here here’s the wave count on the way down Started with three waves down for AW. And then an A. And green B. And green sea and green for a pink X. Then A. And green being green sea and green for pink. Why a pink X. Triangle than an A. B. See it could move lower. Um target down here 165. Um and it could bottom at any time. Some are counting, this is a one two 345 And even those even those who are bearish stocks deadly bearish like it’s going to be just going to melt down from here. Uh um Are expecting that after this fifth wave. It’s done when I get some kind of bounce out of there. But I think the bounce is going to surprise on how big it is. Xeon contract. Same basic idea. In the very long term chart we need we’re finishing an ending expanding diagonal. Next move is going to be a strong move to the upside to finish. Um On the C. N. Contract. It did not the 10 year. It did not make a new low below the below a few weeks ago. Like the like the 30 year did So that the 30 year the ZB is making a new low here. Whereas the Xeon contract is not that’s a non confirmation. And um looking for some upside is it is only on this chart where I’m showing the alternate where it wouldn’t move as strongly to the higher and too much higher through mid year. Um Mhm And at the top and major top would be in here. Oil and gas commodities. The the oil roadmap here lately has been working on pretty well and no. Mhm. Mhm. So up from the april low in oil are got an A. And B. And a wave, see black is underway to the upside and it should be in five waves And we’re very very close now to finish in blue wave one to the upside hearst is uh suggesting that it’s awfully close to the top and we’ll go into a corrective pattern. No guarantees that it would be a zigzag, but down through middle mid year and then on up for a full year after that, here’s the daily chart. Uh huh uh from the black way below 12 34 and then one in green two and green 345 So we’re getting awfully close to my target. Um best target I think is 58 55. That is where pink wave five would equal .618 times the net traveled of one through 3. Pink here’s a closer view of that. Yeah, I’m also showing on on this chart of crude oil, how you can take the initial wave one to the upside And do i .1.618 expansion off the top of that pink wave one and set a target for Pink Wave three. This is why I think this is Pink Wave 31 of the reasons why I think that’s the end of Pink Wave three. And then you can look at the next target up where Wave five Would be a 2.618 expansion off of this initial way one. And that target is also very, very close. It’s a 59 32. Very, very close to my favorite Fibonacci target for the end of the fifth wave. And that’s where Panke Way five is equal to the net. Travel to one through three times 1.618 So there’s pink one through 3, Take that times .618 And then add that to the bottom of four. And you get that target there at 58 55. And you can see we’re getting awfully close to it. Uh This was as I had projected a way four across here in green, so 123 45 and look, see I had put a target on here where Wave three would be equal to Wave one uh Times 2.618. That’s measuring up through this high and then down through here that sets a target and weigh three B 2.618 measured up from wave chew. But that ended up not being the best target. Uh huh. This ended up being the best target. So you take this initial wave one, thank you. And you expand it By 1.618 and you can also expand it By 2.618. And that helps you set a target for the end of the 5th way. This is amazing. Hell often some of these new 15 measurement techniques are working out. Mhm. Yeah. Where Wave three was exactly uh 1.618 expansion off the top of one. So this would be a quantity of one, Take that times 1.618 and add that to the top of it. You get this ticket, times 2.618, you’d add that to the top of it, you get this. And if that’s true, then we have arrived potentially At the end of the wave one and blue to the upside because that we’ve hit that target just late last week. I can also, let’s see, set, um, look at the trend channel for Within the 5th wave up and uh, that there would be an R N. L. R N. Elliott trend channel where you connect the extreme to two and four, who the parallel copy at three and look for that line to present right resistance Kind of a target for the end of 5th way. So we’re getting awfully close, the top might be in, but um, once we move into the, Well, this is the 240 minutes chart, the best Fibonacci target and the one that’s most often the closest to being correct. Uh, that would be weird. Pink five equals net travel to one through three times 30.618 still hadn’t been hit 58 55 but you can see how close we are and then there should be a pullback through any, anybody mid year, mid year. You know, I’ve got some, some her stand, some FSC target date windows for you on how it might make its way to the downside. I’m currently projecting it as a zigzag and we’ll see if that’s the way it turns out. Um, commercials on a six month look back are fairly short on crude oil, but on the short term commercials as a percent of open interest still long. You know, we, we did hit a 78 on the DSS to end the week. Pretty pretty lofty. Uh doesn’t necessarily scream that, you know, we’re at exactly the top tick, but we possibly are natural gas. I don’t think the correction to the downside is finished. I think we’ve got a nice five wave up structure for a blue wave A. Um uh the second half of last year. Yeah. Yeah. Mhm. And um I don’t think we’re quite finished with a blue B. Uh pull back yet, although as we move in closer. So here’s the five wave up structure for blue wave A. You know, um I think this pullback continues through mid year before it takes off to the upside along with everything else. I am showing an alternate on the daily chart that yeah, the correction might be finished and we’re getting a one and then abc for two and then it just on up from there. Mhm. It would be a little on that. It would take off to the upside out of a 40 week cycle trough and not out of an 18-month cycle trough. So the main count is still that it’s going to work its way back sideways and lower through the middle of the year before we get our before the inflationary um explosion light goes off. Mhm. I’ve got a couple of of uh charts have been working on lately and updating one is the CRB catch index and I think we’re awfully close to finishing a five wave up structure in in the commodities complex. I’m not sure of the absolute top tick is in yet. If oil has just slightly higher to go, I can see where this might move just a little higher and then looking for a pullback through mid year and then on up. So that’s, that’s the general idea is uh, that we’re finishing a five wave up structure. We’re going to pull back to the way four of one lesser degree and then move higher. Um, and then another one that I’m showing is D. B. C. It’s a, it’s another index commodity index just looks at things a little different. And on this one, I’m figuring that an ending diagonal or actually leading diagonal ended Down from the 2008 High. That’s where goal our oil made its all time high down Through the March of 2020. So it’s amazing how that low has formed a very large cycle low now. Um, And and and it was followed in this case also by a five wave of structure. And now it’s back up to the top of the channel. I think it’s going to find resistance here. It’s going to move back to the way 41 listed degree and then it’s going to break out. And when I Dewhurst on this, this has commodities generally moving higher all the way into March of 2023, which makes sense because I think the dollar is going to go, it’s going to finish its correction right about mid year this year. So the dollar US dollar move up and away black wave too Through about the middle of this year. And then the dollar is going to weaken substantially all the way into 2023, potentially into late 2023. So there’s the outlook on commodities and that’s why I keep saying, you know, there’s, there’s a massive bind hold opportunity coming in. A lot of things. Yes, certainly in the commodity space around mid year. This year, it’s coming. Um moving on to medals. We’ll start with copper, copper. I’m still looking for that pullback through mid year. And on this chart, the weekly chart I’m showing it is still as a potential zigzag the downward movement. So, so far in copper, not really what you’d expect for the beginning of this move to the downside. So I’ve created an alternate and that is that um, we’ve seen a a triangle across here. So looking up from the October two, low 1 in green, two in green, three in the alternate A B c D E. And we could get this thrust in copper to the upside, you know, this price action to the downside so far, It’s, it’s not a clean five. That could be a one, 212 But if, unless copper turns right around And moves to the downside, then that 1, 2 12 ideas out. And so this this leaves open the possibility that copper is going to move, move higher Um on a short term blast and then and then put in the end of five ways up from the March low. I haven’t shown. Let me see here. This is similar log chart. Yeah, I mean we already hit Where Way five was long enough. Um Normal, I had taken that off the chart because I’m pretty confident that the top is in but now the price action after the after the top charge, you know, hard to say. So that that target really worked pretty well. Let me see if there’s any other targets, you can see that target worked really well too, where Pink five was 2.618 expansion of of Pink one. So from a Fibonacci standpoint that it had every reason to expect that the top was in. But the price action so far to the downside, pretty iffy. Um You know if it if copper doesn’t turn and start moving to the down here um I’ll have to look for potential 5th wave up where it’s supposed, you know instead of looking for an a. b. c. digzag as I’ve been saying the women are could be something more complex here that has a new high in it. I wouldn’t expect it yet. I would expect that decent size three down and then away B if we’re gonna get it uh expanded flat. So I’ll have to say that the way the the copper and the U. S. Dollar acted on friday last week really brought some question marks in two uh currencies and commodities sure did. Um Platinum. Now I’m planting them. I think we have a little bit clearer picture on platinum and I showed down last week where I suspected the top wasn’t in on platinum yet. So I’m planting them on the daily chart from the March low 12 34 than expanding diagonal for five. So Black Wave one ending early august and then corrective activity abc for W. And then an abc. Best target for a. B. Wave. Actually it changes terminology for an X. Wave Would be where it’s 1.382 times the lake of W. Yeah, so this would be blue. W. Take that length times 1.382. And there’s that target there. That’s when you know it’s been flirting with that level ever since early december and it’s been flirting with it in a very corrective sideways choppy way. And so from this low right here I’m counting it is 123 four. And if this is the fifth wave it needs to have five waves in it. one two three for and then abc so I think we might be the very tail end Of a 5th wave. Yeah. Um and and the the whole 5th way would be an ending contracting diagonal. All of the way, the way the price has been acting and chopping up and down in threes for the last month really supports that count. So I think we’ve got just slightly higher to go. uh should she might be able to do it within just a day or two and end up topping it about 11 86. Then then we get our um abc correction down. Uh And so what what we’re talking about here is essentially an expanded flat with alternate labeling of A. W. X. Why the only difference being that this would be a three wave structure to the downside Instead of a five down through mid year. Um I want to see you look at sentiment. Yeah. See how commercials as a percent of open interest or all of a sudden long on copper. Mhm. And all of a sudden on planting them, you know, starting to look a little bit more of the upside on a longer term outlook though, on platinum, it’s bearish noticed that the large specks are heavily long and the commercials are heavily short and that gap has been widening and widening. It’s about as wide as you better ever see it. You know, we did see pretty wide gap back in the Early 2000, led to that plunge down into the March low. So that gap was kind of similarly wide at that time. And and that’s where we’re getting right now. So I think it’s about to finish a pan or and then move lower through mid year palladium, I think it’s already started and it’s moved to the downside through mid year and it’s possible that palladium is just simply already put in its all time high and it’s about as high as it’s going to go for a number of years. And that high was all the way back in February 2020 gold and silver is next then currencies, then Bitcoin in the super bowl and snacks and beers. Oh, let’s see here. Yeah. Oh yeah, that’s interesting. Greg says electric cars don’t need catalytic converters that could could could decimate the demand for platinum or palladium. Uh huh. That’s good stuff. Uh So here’s a long term outlook on gold as I I think we’re in the process of putting up five wave up structure that actually started way back In December 2016 1 two and then 1234 543 And then we’re in a way for. So um are in Elliott said um if you’re looking for the end of a way for Put a parallel or draw a line from the extremes of one and 3. put a parallel copy of two and look for a price to find that trend line. And that’s where you know it’s about over. Well it hasn’t found it yet. Still moving kind of sideways and down and another. Yeah mate. A I saw I saw his goal. Yeah here’s the big problem and you know I don’t I don’t want to throw David Hickson under the bus. But when you do a peak and trough analysis long term on gold and you do a peak and trough analysis long term on the U. S. Dollar. It’s the for the longest time the analysis on the dollar has been expecting um move down a strong move down from about the middle of this year through Late 2023. Well there’s no way that that is correct and his skulled forecast is correct. Sorry, one of them is going to be wrong and I think the one that’s gonna be wrong is is gold because um I remember When gold was bottoming dag back in late 2015, he had me as a guest on one of his things and um he’s real proud of The projection that is the silent one. And johnny E strike was um calling for a cyclic low based on custom model that was probably going to bottom on gold Around March of 2016. And I said no, I think that we’ve seen a ending diagonal and the chances are quite good that we are at or very near the low. And this was, this was in january of that year 2016. And the whole group of hearst no at all piled on my ass. Like you wouldn’t believe, you know that, that I was calling for low earlier than what the grandmaster himself, you know, john e strike who still had some sort of religious fervor vince about, you know that guy, he’s uh deceased now. And that I was calling for a low too soon and I was, I was really gonna be wrong. And um, so I think, you know, in my experience, hearst in order to read the hearst tea leaves into a gold road map, you have to be creative and you can’t um, you can’t take the composite line at its face value. So yeah, what kind of saying? I like David, he’s a good guy. He is and I I love being able to have access to sending a trader. I think it was just fabulous gift of writing that software, having it written, paying to have it written and you know, so I don’t want to be too, but there was, I don’t think it’s a good idea to get completely married to hearst as it as if it is the gospel. I’ve been there and it’s it will disappoint. So it’s you have to take things. I think from, I think Elliot wave has to be number one. The internal wave structures have to take president over everything. And I think that to go along with that if you’re wave count is correct and your Fibonacci targets can be outstanding. And so I’m in my opinion, the best analysis and the best um analysis I’ve seen from uh outside of in the outside world. really peter good burn and wave track for years and years. He’s also very bullish on gold, but he thinks it needs to finish this way for we’re really close on on the way we’re thinking about it. And the main thing is The downward movement since that black wave three high. Um it’s been a choppy, overlapping and corrective. I don’t see how that builds into an impulse and that’s what David Hicks un’s analysis was basically saying that it was going to build into an impulsive move to the downside. And I don’t think that’s the internal wave structures of the move down so far suggests that at all. Um um I mean, asked, what do I think the picture for gold is post 2023 and will it go Uh down with the broader market? Yeah, I think um when, once the dollar bottoms in late 2023 we’ll get to that in a minute. That it will be a huge multi decade dollar revival. That the dollar will move strongly to the upside After. And that’s just basically after a five wave diagonal pattern ends in 2023. That started in 1985. So if the dollar is going to be strengthening at that point that should be a headwind for hard assets. So. So yeah as a matter of fact hurst is, and I’m being liberal with this notice. I’m also saying that this is a nine year cycle peak According to the Hearse Analysis, but I don’t think it’s going to top until the next 18-month cycle peak which is in early February. And that will be away. five top. That’s the end of highways up from this low. So I have been creatively looking at where the next peaks and troughs are taking some borrowing from the U. S. Dollar index and doing some other things in order to massage this roadmap into something that makes sense from an Elliott wave and Fibonacci standpoint for a long time. And I have to say it’s generally worked pretty well. It’s not always perfect. But um but so this moved so far to the downside. Um We look at the daily chart. I I just I think it’s got to be corrective and if it’s corrective then fits perfectly perfectly with my roadmap of it being 1\/4 wave in black that I think is going to bottom in june because that’s when I think the top isn’t going to occur on the U. S. Dollar. And a and then it’s going to move up strongly from there. That’s going to be that big inflation buying opportunity. So actually this needs to be a Y. So here’s this is slightly revised roadmap. So a triangle for Bc. For blue W. Abc. For an X. Um five. I’m gonna This looks like potentially a three wave structure to the downside. A. B. C. But I’m I’m just going to label it As more than likely as a five. Uh huh. This movement up in gold was corrective abc friend. And uh for wave and now we’ve seen an abc to the downside in gold in hurst is projecting that were near a low and we’re going to move up and I think Hickson did show that and it’s so in the short term it’s pretty close on where the next swings are. So I think this I think we might have bottomed on gold for multi week bottom on thursday of last week and we’re going to move up corrective lee for the wave C. Of a triangle, then diva triangle, Either triangle. The triangle will end in early May. There would be one last capitulation puke out move that should be bought around 1672. That would be a .38 to retrace of the entirety of black wave three. So I don’t think this is going to turn into an impulsive move to the downside. It’s all corrective. And this roadmap that I’ve got here, I think works well on the short term, on on um on hearst. And I think the fact that it hurts when you add peak analysis in is calling this a very large cycle piece, is throwing off the analysis just because that says his 19 year pig even hearst himself admitted you can have a nine year peak and a year later be making new highs. And I think that’s what we’re going, what we’re going to have. But so I mixed all of these different methodologies together to come up with what I think it’s the proper road map and that’s that’s what I’ve got for this week. I think I think we’re going to see some upside. So this supports the idea of some upside for About five weeks, maybe into mid March. That fits I think pretty close to the GDX drug map. And then, and then that’s it. And it’s not the biggest. Um this wouldn’t be, you know, something that said set your hair on fire. It’s so strong to the upside, but it is going to be strong enough to the upside that I think it can be treated so there’s gold. Um Mhm. Notice that the commercials as a percent of open interest are all of a sudden uh movement had moved back to and they were very bearish during all of this this time frame and they moved back to neutral. We also recently saw a move down in the sea on gold to 37. So gold is not go go go go could rally here, corrective lee for a little while. Uh with these conditions, silver, I’ve also revised this count and I think silver is in II triangle. That’s going to last an entire year. That it started triangle started back in early august and it moved down in three ways for wave. And now it moved up a very choppy and corrective for a wave B. Of a triangle. And now we’re going to get away C. Of a triangle D. E. And by the time we get to the mid middle of the year on silver, that’s where we get our big inflation move. And in the case of the silvery, it would be a thrust out of a triangle. Very aggressive, Probably up until early 2022. Um, here’s a closer look at that idea. A big problem. Silver I think is going to have it on as far as being really strong To the upside over the next five weeks. Is that the rug just got pulled out from under a bunch of people on silver. You know, there was a ton of people that went out and bought silver believing the hype the lies that would have been put out by some nefarious types that we’re taking advantage. It’s kind of a genius move, taking advantage of some success that a few, a group of people using social media to um take advantage of some fairly low, low volume items with high level of short interest. That really is not the situation on silver, but some nefarious types. Side hey let’s tell the same thing about silver. We might be able to catch you know two standard deviation move or something and and make a fortune really fast on it and um it’s already over that play is over now. I do think well silver will stay up and bounce through mid March and I think we’ve got there’s the sideways roadmap all the way through july then then a screaming move to the upside. So there’s silver. Yeah I think we’ve begun a bounce that’s gonna got a little bit of life to it. Not much over the next few weeks on silver. Um Now moving on to currencies. Mhm. Um So here’s the long term look on the U. S. Dollar index. The all time high was back in 1985 it was 1 64.72. Don’t have enough data here show it and I think it’s been working its way down in a diagonal unending pattern that’s going to end. Um according to hearst in late 2023. According to another cycle non her cycle running in the markets, a 15.6 year cycle mid 2023. So we have some nice agreement of where it’s going to end and substantially lower down around the mid sixties I think on the U. S. Dollar index. So I think the U. S. Dollars very likely going to plunge this will keep the stock market and the commodity is moving higher, especially after mid year this year. So this was a nice five wave down structure back over here and then a corrective way very deep way be. And then another nice five wave down structure. So the down moves have been fives. The up moves have been corrective and looking for another corrective move to the upside through. Approximately june yeah, So, 1, 2, 3 45 waves down for wave a in a corrective be wave And then 12345 wave structure down through the January low. And now looking for a corrective wave to now on this long term chart, I’m still drawing it as a zigzag Um drawing it where it kind of moves back pretty close to the way 4, 1 lesser degree. So back to 94 75. And I’ve got, I’m showing it on this chart as as is the exact cause I don’t, there’s no use putting a lot of detail in this chart, but it could be based on what I saw on friday. I think there’s a decent chance we’re going to see something other then it zigzag for black wave too. And I think what we saw on friday last week, this bearish engulfing candle right there I think indicates that what we’re going to see on this black Wave two is going to probably be shallow. It’s not going to be a 20.618 retrace like a lot of Wave twos are Um it’s probably gonna be backed away for one lesser degree, which which happens to be exactly right at the .38 to retrace I kind of like this as a potential a triangle for Bc. And that’s the end of Blue Wave W It’s already done. Blue Wave W has already done. And so looking for a pullback took it last through mid March. This is why I think the precious metals, gold and silver, mainly gold and the gold miners, they got a little more room I think to the upside than silver does could move up. You know, corrective lee in an abc through mid March and then and then we get the final. So I think we’ve already seen way bluewave w to the upside, never going to get an X. Way than an abc. So i this is why I said in the minors might be a few select miners could see some upside between about now and approximately mid March. But it’s a trade, it’s not a buying whole because you’ve got to deal with this coming up. So there’s there’s the U. S. Dollar index. Um let’s see what we do, what kind of what we’re expecting. Some of these other things generally expecting, you know, um a rebound on the U. S. Dollar against almost all currencies, virtually all currencies through mid year. This happens to be the japanese yen. But it looks like we finished A 12 and three on on the USd Jpy. I’m probably going to move into some sideways price action now for several weeks. Eventually. You know the hearst on these things that this lift on the U. S. Dollar lance until mid august. I think the U. S. Dollar is likely to strengthen a little more against the yen than it does against some other currencies over the next few months because, but that would be something that the bank of Japan would like. And I I think that probably this this move to the downside since March in the case of this pair was turned into a very gradual diagonal. Mhm Because the bank of Japan was constantly trying to put a floor under this thing and so the dollar strengthened a heck of a lot more than this. I’m sorry, wink weakened the dollar weakened a lot more than this In comparison with the spike in March Against most other currencies. But on this one the bank just remember the bank of japan. It wants this pair up. Why? Because that means a weaker again. And that means they can sell their cars around the world for cheaper. That keeps their cars affordable. Um, as they sell into the different companies and cars are just one example. You know, all the other things they make to their electronics and things. So they are constantly trying to keep this hair from um going too far south. They want again weaker than the dollar and they’ll find it constantly. But they’re gonna have a hell of a hard time fighting it once mid year is over. It’s going to be difficult situation for them where the japanese goods, if, if there’s anything japanese you want to buy, probably ought to get it bought by mid year. Anything japanese manufactured. Mm um, Canadian dollar. So I already showed how the, the oil is awfully close to a top and could have possibly top, it’s likely to move just slightly higher. And that means um, that we could see this pair move a little bit lower us dollar lower. Canadian dollar up as so Canadian dollar generally strengthens when oil is strengthening and the move up so far, pretty, pretty weak. It’s not really impulsive. Yeah. So I’m looking for a little pull back here. Could it, could it turn into, you know, a new low? Yeah, it could. And the reason is because the best Fibonacci target for the bottom down here never was hit Where we five would be equal 2.618 times in that travel to one through three and that’s blue one, two, three for five. So that target was never hit million. So it’s possible that it it does maybe try to sneak down and make a new low below that low, right there. And I’ve been saying that for the last couple weeks because I’m expecting that oil had not top quite yet. Um Now moving to the Euro pound, Ozzie will start with the HAC in Auntie. We kind of have the same problem that the movement down so far has not been a definitive five wave structure. So on the day on the weekly chart, I’m still showing it as a zigzag down through mid year. Back to the way for one lesser degree. Uh huh. But on the daily chart I decided to put some Fibonacci is back on the chart that I had taken off because I thought the top was in and still on the main count, I’m suggesting the top is probably in. Um But Um the downward movement if if the top sand would have to be a 1212. It’s pretty rough to be labeling it that way. In fact, maybe you want to one two, 12 Yeah, so it would have to turn without moving very much higher at all And continue on down in an impulse wave three of 3 as a matter of fact. Yeah. And I’m not so sure I can do that after this big spike on friday to the upside. And so um I’ve drawn some Fibonacci is that brings back a Fibonacci target. That’s higher Up at 81 69. And that would be where blue wave five would be. Look .618 times in their travel to one through 3. So I’m not so sure of the immediate bearish outlook right now. I’m leaving open an alternate where it moves up there. Then then it would, yeah, move down through mid year. If it does make any kind of new high, It would be if it would be making a 5th wave time. Um Yes, yeah, commercials all of a sudden getting a little longer the Euro, the Euro has had uh a little bit more, a little bit stronger progress to the downside than some of the other currencies against the dollar so far since about Jan six. And some are saying it’s a 1- 1, 2 underway. Yeah, but I’ve decided in and and danced on this weekly chart. That’s what I’m showing 1-1, 2 and then it just just keeps going on down. Um but on the daily, I’m gonna call this uh another way to count it. Yeah, and really so far and what we can see with our naked eye is a three wave structure to the downside. So what if that is all there is to the beginning of a more complex correction, then that would be a way of W and and look at look at what hearst and the FSc cycle program are suggesting here, they’re suggesting that this bounce that started on friday could continue on through the end of february. Then we moved down into late March, up into late May, down into maybe late june early july. And so I’ve drawn it, so it kind of adheres to that general road map. Um as a as a triple zigzag. So this could be our this is the problem. It’s always so easy when you get a really clean clear five, That is about 2\/3 the way to your target. Which is then, you know, you can just put an A. And look for a B. Wave and then it’s the wave down, you can look for a zigzag, but I’m not so sure we’re going to get a zigzag here and it looks like something more complex. So there’s the road map. Uh and right now looking for a bit of a bounce, although corrective bounce. This this would allow gold and miners too move up. Uh you know, for a few weeks. Mhm. You can see on the 240 minutes chart how strong this move was on friday, this bounce and it was in in Oversold territory. On a 240 minute chart, it was in a brown box, he got a walter brassard, then it got a bicycle and then it got a green zone all in fairly short order, That’s a pretty solid little bounce right there. Um on the daily chart, it hasn’t turned the trend back up yet, But on the 240 minutes it has a pound dollar, pound dollar. I think he’s been putting in a very choppy overlapping ending diagonal for a while. I think the pound dollars more immediately bearish. But you know, it’s sort of that same, so that same candle. And it was, you know, it’s a big enough move that I put this fibonacci back on the chart, but this overlapping price action uh, suggests the top is in and see we we we wouldn’t be able to do something like this become an expected. It was we were still in a contracting dialogue because that would make this leg too long in comparison with this way. So that’s why we have to stick with Um away three. They ended back here In a four here of the diagonal and that it topped here. I’m still expecting to pound to turn right around and head lower. Um In psychoanalysis really is to, so we’ll see if that pans out. But that’s that’s my best attempted A. At a wave count there On page $1 really hasn’t changed that much. And then uh we’ll show the swiss frank and the Bitcoin on the swiss frank, the bigger picture Looking for um a wave to in black through mid year and then moving down through late 2023. It’s same same as the US. dollar index. And um I can see this as a leading diagonal for wave A. And then away B. And then another diagonal expanding diagonal for wave one and looking for a way to. And last week um the swiss franc was definitely one of the stronger items to the upside until friday. And then they had that Barron’s engulfing candle. So I’m going to count this as a finished abc to the upside for a w looking for that X. Wave down through mid March and then more choppy upside progress probably up into june july time frame. And then then the big moved down through late um 2023 mm hmm. And then uh very quickly to finish up Bitcoin and on Bitcoin streaming is on. So this is up to date. Um If Bitcoin is gonna gonna move lower which is what um psychoanalysis is expecting then it needs to get going. It’s flirting with a new all time high at this juncture. Didn’t make, it didn’t make a new all time high and now it’s giving them more bearish daily candle. So this would need to turn and move to the downside of this road map is correct. The big idea on Bitcoin is that um the December of 2017 high, which coincided with the advent of the B. T. C. Uh futures contract, which really was the first time that Bitcoin became short herbal. So I really think that the price action since Bitcoin became a modern short herbal item Uh starting December 2017, that price action after that high is the most important. The earlier price action not as important. And a move down after a, You know, this chart only has data back to October 2011. You know, Bitcoin actually in existence longer than that. But that was you know, multi year 678 year long impulse my opinion. And then we got a three way down structure that only lasted one year one year. And then I think we’ve got a three wave up structure that is uh least right now, stop going up and where it was very close To 1.382 times the length of that initial down structure through December 2018. So I think this is a b wave, I think this is what this roadmap projects is, that. Bitcoin is going to crash Down through maybe 1800. It’s currently at 37 38,000 and got its highs 41 K I think here. But that would be a massive, massive crash. But if this wave count is correct at that point, which is pretty close to mid year this year, then bic Wynwood and maybe other Kryptos would have a chance to put in and possibly a wave three to the upside, much, much higher pricing. The big problem, I think what Kryptos is, you know, I’ve been using Bitcoin is my main road map for Elliott Wave, But um with technology moving along the way it is there’s so many competing currencies or Kryptos there’s probably going to be one that comes along. There’s just a lot heck of a lot better than Bitcoin. Um It’s faster, it might be something that is standardized on moving forward. Um And so it’s still really, I don’t think Bitcoin can be considered to be a gold equivalent because there’s so many different competing items, ethereum light coin obviously ripple um Here’s you know there’s others like this E. O. S. Or stellar lumens. There’s a whole bunch more and all every time they come up with a new one it’s got it’s better it’s faster that’s improved and so Bitcoin I think becomes dust someday. But it’s just some old model t forward that it’s going to go into a museum in the history books but I don’t see any reason why it would continue to be the standard. That’s that’s one of the big problems with using. I think Bitcoin is a potential safe haven. The other potential problem is that it’s so incredibly volatile. Um, that This next move to the upside could be more a 95 crash. Similar to what this this crash was. This was about 89 crash back over here herself. That’s, I don’t think that’s what safe havens do. They don’t crash 90% Um, in one year and I just think it’s just too volatile to be added to be utilized in that way. So happy Super Bowl, sunday and we’re finished here. Have a great rest of your day, Be safe out there, enjoy the game And if you don’t care about the Super Bowl, uh, that’s okay too. I hope you have a great week in the markets. Hope everyone has a great weekend markets. If you have any questions about my work, send me an email and, uh, thanks you very much for your subscription. We’ll talk later. Bye bye.
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