Investing Using Elliott Wave
Elliott Wave Plus | Weekly “counts” Webinar Text
January 17, 2021
(This text was auto-transcribed by a software utility)
Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, wherever you may be. This is Sid from Elliott Wave Plus. And this is the January 17 of 2021 edition of my weekly counts webinar. Where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stock markets, commodities currencies and bonds, Hurst cycle analysis as well as a number of other forms of technical analysis will also be considered on virtually all items before we get started. I’d like for you to be aware of my disclaimer. It’s at my website Elliott Wave Plus dot com. I’m gonna bring it over. Yeah. And to find the disclaimer and read it, you scroll to the bottom of any page at the site and click on the terms of service disclaimer tab and there it is. It’s there all the time. Um please go there and read that in full. If I were to summarize it in one sentence, it would be. There is risk of loss in all trading. Okay, let’s start counting waves and see what’s happening.
S&P-500 (SPX ES) & Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA YM):
I think some pretty strong developments in the market late late in the week last week I am going to turn off the video itself. Okay. And so we’ll shoot through these uh to be honest, almost all my accountant wave counts were right on the money and very few changes from last week, to be honest. I mean the Russell made a slight new high, but the the S&P-500 did not from my Wednesday screenshots. They the I thought there might be one slight higher high in the Dow and that happens so many, many items are the wave counts working. And so um a lot of this will be reviewed. So I’m going to try to run through it pretty quick today and get to the short term charts really fast. So I’ve been describing the last couple of weeks the expectation that um um the move up from the March Low is either Wave one within a five waves and unfinished five waves structure to the upside in the in the Dow jones industrial average. And there’s Fibonacci targets in the 40 02 43 44,000 A range of the Dow Jones industrial average actually, yeah, 41,000 2 44,000. There’s three major femininity targets up there that haven’t been hit yet, and that’s how um my main county is that uh we’re not finished moving up to those targets in five ways that that uh wave one within that five wave structure is finished at the early september high and and now we’re getting an expanded flat for a wave too. Then we’ll have a 345 on up. Mhm. The alternate is that the move up from the March low of this year is the complete fifth Way, five of 5 to the upside and that the top tick that we saw last week could possibly be um grande. The end of the Grand Supercycle Wave three, that’s protectors counting, I’m tracking that here. Um There certainly is some potential support for that idea. There’s grand supercycle wave three and uh potential, otherwise, it’s up here. Um And and what would support that idea would be the extreme sentiment conditions that we’re seeing now, in many cases, record breaking. A sentiment. Extremes Never been seen before, not even at the Y two K top. So that’s extraordinary that we’ll be seeing that now. And um Right. And so the next thing that is expected in both the main and the alternate count, it’s a five wave Down structure. Um According to Hurst, you move approximately 18 months forward from the March low And you get August 2021. But I can tell you these these troughs have been coming in early this last 18 Month cycle trough Um only took 15 months. And so if you move forward, if we’re going to see the same that same length of cycle For the next 18 months, I called trough um 15 months forward from March would be June be June of this year. So I think as early as June would be a good idea to expect to finish five wave Down structure from the current levels or the high last week. And then as we get into the fourth quarter of this year, uh we’ll get into um the nitty gritty of which one of these counts is is uh likely is most likely. Um So uh if the if this isn’t a super major large degree top that’s only seen in a very, you know, there are many generations between tops of this large. Um then we would get a corrective way to, to the upside. It would not make any more new highs and then it would start moving Down strongly in a wave three from there. Um or uh me and that’s the alternate or it would move up strongly in a wave three. And if you think the sentiment and and um the blow off nature of this top was was record setting. If if if this is all the pullback we’re going to get off of these conditions and it’s gonna scream higher. There’s going to be a blow off top that’s never, no one’s ever seen anything like it in the history of the stock market. Um, Up into uh, you know, the 41 to 40 4000 range on the Dow. And it, dent likely Would take us well into 2022 and possibly into 2023 Hurst is suggesting that the market will top or they start aggressively moving Down Um as early as July 2022, so we’ll just keep that on the chart for now. But I’m not adhering, I’m not drawing my lines necessarily Uh perfectly in harmony with that. Just like I’m expecting a bottom before we get to August 2021 because it appears that the market is running in speed up mod uh as far as these troughs, concern or concern. Now, this item that suggests that with the main count is going to be correct, is that Hurst is calling that low in March, a nine year cycle trough low. So there’s likely to be more upward movement out of a nine year cycle trough low than just, you know, Ever many months. It’s been since March I guess 10 months. Um It’s not impossible that that’s all the upward movement you get out of a nine year cycle trumpet. Very unusual. So so getting into the daily chart from the March Low Um in the Dow, I’m counting a five wave of structure from that low 12 345 through the September High, early september hind and an abc flat for a wave. A And then this upward movement that we’ve seen ever since. Um Halloween I think it was, or late october B. A. B. Wave. And um the price action ever since middle, in the middle of november being very choppy, overlapping. Um Built in threes as a uh ground higher, strongly suggests that this is not a way part of a wave three to the upside. In other words, the blue wave too didn’t end here. Um that this price action just doesn’t support that. Um that labelling and also um it’s worth considering that this two month correction probably didn’t last long enough to um fully correct a 12345 5.5 months impulse to the upside. So, but really the most important reason for not putting the blue to here is this price action right through this stretch right here. Very unusual. It’s it’s what I used to call or sometimes call a caterpillar pattern where um you know, it’s there there really isn’t a strong directional uh impulse to the market and if this was part of a wave three, it would have been much stronger. So uh so I think this is a pink be wave and it did overshoot what we would normally uh expect. Pink be wave to kind of max out at and that’s where way be in pink would be equal to wave a in pink times 1.382 It’s overshot that by a little bit. But that’s fairly typical these days of be waves that overshoot targets. I showed this last week that the likely in the Down was a B wave moving up into the February of 2020 high and it overshot its normal target and stayed up there for a little while. And in sentiment got extremely Rich. one side had extremely bullish at that juncture and it just became apparent that um uh since everyone was on one side of the boat, almost the entire market was bullish that that was likely to um give way in a correction and boy did it. Uh 30 38 correction in about five weeks. And so this correction don’t expect to be that large, but this correction could be Um and I’m expecting it to be in the neighborhood of 20%. If it gets Down to that low target Down there. Let’s see. Get up the 1%. Yeah The neighborhood of 20 correction. Um and I think it will take that big of a correction to work off. The kind of fraud that we have seen recently was just unbelievable bullishness on normally if you might expect even a larger correction than that with the record foolishness that we’re getting. So Um looking for a 20 correction to the Downside in five waves. Um The FSC Cycle programme expects it to move Down through let’s say late May Hurst thinks it’s moving Down through August seven. You take an average and you get into june and that’s what I was talking about earlier. You know, expecting maybe a june flow um and moved Down in five waves. And as you can see, we’re just barely into this thing. If this count is correct, this is just barely barely getting started to the Downside. So this um this is a very early call to be calling a top considering that looking for a 20 correction and the correction we’ve seen from peak to trough so far in the Down, it was uh is 2% so quite a bit more expected. Um so there’s there’s the 240 minute chart of the same thing. Um And so I would expect a wave one in green, so I’m expecting five green waves Down. I’d expected to move Down to support And the earliest support level five C here is 28 902. So we’re at 38:00. So that is a drop of almost 2000 Down points to say 1900 Down points just to get to wave one. Uh So that’s uh they camped on the Dow jones industrial average. Um last week um I was, my chart was drawn such that it could make a slightly high and it did ever so slight, very very slight new high here above this hide. I mean just mere just ticks higher as all. Um you on the daily trend chart, we ended the week, the final candle of the week. It still is in a trend following green bike box, but we did get an A. D. X. Sell signal. So the DMI minus um uh crossed up above the DMI plus and that created this little red arrow. So that’s a very early signal that occurred on friday on the Dow jones industrial average average. And I would say it’s early, as far as, um, trend followers would be concerned. And on the 240 minute chart, um, it gave us, uh, basically a cell signal here and it’s still in a pink box slightly oversold on, on the short term. So on on the dale. Let me take this uh, Chart and change it to a real short term. Let’s call it a 15 minutes. Um, and see what we see so far. This looks like a 12345 wave structure to the wooden Downside so far, so that’s probably orange one and then we moved up, but we didn’t fill this gap. Um, this is on the cash index and look at the move up so far. 12345 So, um, I think there’s a pretty good chance that it is going to need to fill that gap earlier this week with a big bit of upward movement. It doesn’t have to I mean this this upward movement is large enough to Have retraced about 50 of that move Down. Um Yeah, a little more than 50, but 9.618 yet, that would be a 30,009 88. So I based on this, the look of this is a five wave up here. This could be a B. Wave and then we get another five up. So at least on the Dow jones industrial average. Um I’m prefer to say that this upward correction isn’t done yet because of the five wave up look of that initial move up here and then this kind of a three wave moves. So that would suggest that Wave two and oranges on up a little higher. Um And so a .618 retrace um would be of of the initial move Down so far would be 39 88. And uh this week I’m I am gonna I’m gonna dial Down into some 15 minute charts on all these indices to try to come up with some real exacting retrace potential retrace numbers for you. So, that’s the deal. Um Let’s go to the S. And P. We don’t have a cell signal yet on the on the album. We would need for this am a line right here uh to flatten out and start Turning red starts sloping to the Downside. That I am, a line on daily chart is currently at 30 3 21. And it very well could be that it needs to get Down to that and maybe close below it on a daily chart. Before it would consider taking a short signal on the daily daily signals, mm S. And P. So nancy and p same same same basically. Um Now in the S. And P. The account on the way up to the target is a little different. I go to as a W. X. Y. To the upside but I’m still um wanting to call the top tickets being in now on the S. And P. There’s a weekly chart and looking for a fairly substantial uh wave to That would let’s say get back to the .38 to retrace of the entirety of wave one which ended in early September. And that would have moving back Down to about 29 72, next on the S. And P. And also right there and at 29 72 is another target at 29 95. And that is the .618 expansion off the bottom of wave a. So um this is on the S. And P. M. Also counting five wave up structure through early september but instead of an abc flat through this this low here, like on the Dow, which makes made a new low here, the Dow did below this low on this one I’m counting this is three waves Down for wavy here. Three waves up for W. Three waves Down for an X. And then three waves up for why? Uh huh. To end away be that once again also overshot the most normal target for the end of a pink B. By a little bit. You know, looking on this daily chart where it connects this low on the other side of this low and on friday it broke that trend line. And uh same problem here calling trying to call this part of the ongoing wave three. To the upside for one thing, the cinnamon is way too rich too early and in a wave three for that to occur. The other is that this correction was too brief. But the main thing is that this grind e choppy overlapping price action since mid november does not support the idea that this has further strong legs to the upside at this time. Um so on the 240 minute chart on on this one, I’m showing the E. S. contract instead of the cash index and there’s the wave count been looking at and and a triangle here and then an ending expanding diagonal here. That actually ended in the es contract on January eight. And it did not make a new high here. It is worth considering though moving forward that this um attempted a new high that failed on Thursday of last week. That’s the 14th was actually the truncated into the pattern. Um, And that way, we wouldn’t have to try to explain this as a 1, 2. You know, we could start the count from there just the same way as we would maybe start the count from there on the Dow, which we would have to because it did make a new slight, new high right there, so that may be the Orthodox Top and that was on Thursday of last week. So I’m going to dial Down to a 15 minute here as well and um, all last week, um, it was apparent that the market was refusing to go Down. And the big problem with starting the count. It this hide that looks like a three wave structure to start to the move, but if we started from this high here, then it cleans it up as the potential Orthodox top on the years contract. And that way it’s a 12345 Normally after a five wave Down structure, you look for a move back to the way for one lesser degree. It hasn’t made it back up there yet. Here’s the low so far, whoops. and once again this move up looks like a one 2, 3 45. And so that could be an a. And they were getting a very deep be. Now if it moves Down below this 37 41 50, then this really could not be counted as a five legitimately because that would be the end of the correction. So let’s see, Oh yeah, so once again we’ll see how the week opens up. But if we were to take this five wave structure seriously here to the upside with a deep way be. Now We would look for a five wave structure up back to 37 84 50 before it would start moving into a third wave to the Down south side. So once again, this five way structure up is showing itself in both the Dow and the S&P-500. Um So we’ll see this is going to be very interesting start to the week um on whether it just keeps going Down or if it gives, you know, attempts to rebound Back to 37 84 50 before moving lower. As you can see that kind of, the way I’ve got it drawn. As a matter of fact, what I what I’m going to do is I’m going to go ahead and label this as the Orthodox top there, up with the B. As a question mark here. And um and then I’m going to label this as an orange wave one C. Here. Mhm. And expecting the orange wave to up here as my main count little bit of a rebound. So we’ll see if we get that. Uh huh. So there’s um There’s the ES 240 minutes chart. Um We also got a D. M. I. Sell signal on the daily chart on friday, Very similar looking situation on the 240 minutes to the Dow. We don’t have a cell signal yet. We would need for the the am A line on the the Algo to start sloping to the Downside and it looks like it’s within an eyelash of of doing that. And at that point we would have the potential or a sell signal because we’ve already got on a negative crossover on the walter. Brassard also noticed that on a lot of these charts have taken this money flow index and um are versus R. S. I. And after any kind of overbought or oversold territory once that stretch ends and it was neither are in overbought territory anymore. I’m placing a pink stripe if it’s bearish green stripe, if it’s foolish and those that are just really coming in great and I think will be good indicators for you to look look for on these charts. Um, moving forward when you get your screenshots, that happens to be on the AL Ghosts, The Daily Al Ghosts, which the premium plan members get. And they also get These 240 minutes ADX plus charts as well. Every night now, by the way, I’ve had some subscribers have a hard time upgrading to the premium plan. And that’s because there was some programming issues on my side. I got my programmer working on that right now, Hopefully he can get that fixed and it will be easy to upgrade to the premium plan. Um But if you attempt to upgrade the premium plan, it gives you some kind of error message. Just send me an email and I’ve got a manual way to get that done for you. So, um my email is sid at Elliott wave plus dot com. So if you do want to upgrade, don’t let that that air message that you may or may not get when you try to upgrade to the premium plan. Don’t let it dissuade you just let me know and we can get that done. Um The once again on the two times bullish and two times bearish ETFS on the S&P-500. That signal that came in On the 11th, just really beautiful as far as the end of an overbought zone. Also, while the R. S. I. Was over park, the money flow was lacking it. And that makes it a stronger signal. Usually. Same thing back here. Same thing here. So most of many times there was um the end of an overbought zone and the darker the color the better or the end of it over oversold zone create some really nice signals on these daily charts. Um On the two times bearishh E. T. F. Of the S. D. S. On on the S. And P. This would be the one to consider buying some shares of right here or possibly three times version. Uh There’s it’s easy to find those ticker symbols of uh by googling, you know, two X or three X. Leveraged E. T. F. S. And get a list of those and look for the ones with the highest volume. Uh I personally like the ones from Pro shares better than directly on because they seem to have handled the explosion of in the vics that occurred back in March better than the direction ones. Nor accident had to shift a number of their three times E. T. S. 222 times. And and that kind of destroyed the ability to back test on those uh as far as automated signals. That’s why we went with two X. And we went with pro shares on these L. Goes. But these signals can be applied via the three X. Uh E. T. S. Just as well. And you can see that the the A. M. A. Line has flattened out. And is that uh $12.45 on the sts. It’s have any kind of close above 12 45 on sts. And I think will very likely have a buy signal on STS. Um Premium plan members will will receive notification that that has occurred in real time. Let’s see what else we have here.
NASDAQ NQ, Russell, and Semiconductor Index:
We’re moving on to NASDAQ and Russell start with the NASDAQ. No change here. Um We either have a significant and very large degree top in place um last week at the top tick or um we’re going to finish a wave two and move on up in in a screaming blow off. You know, no holds barred if you ain’t seen nothing yet. Kind of move to the upside. Um But the NASDAQ also ended the week with a Down week last week. And we have kind of on a weekly chart. We have an inside uh they can’t all except it’s a weekly candle. We got big divergence showing on the sea. And notice on the sea that we um darcy overbought has moved Down out of overbought territory. And so little white space there and that’s where uh we put in uh take special notice of um it was overbought man. Now it’s not so it that has a tendency to point out the beginning of some moves to the Downside. Did there, did there. And as far as the Bullish one, that wouldn’t work like a charm there. So all of these have been meaningful even though some of them were shorter term Pullbacks like this one. So I think this is the bigger beginning of a bigger pull back and based on the wave counts. I think it’s the beginning of 20 correction or worse. Um In the case of the nan stack after a five wave, really clean clear five wave up structure from the March Low through um the early september high. Then we got this sideways junk here. I’m calling this three wave structure Down here is Wave and this is an abc. And in the case of the NASDAQ, it didn’t overshoot anything, It came up right up to these targets and it fell just ever so slightly short of hitting two different targets. 13 187 was the Pink Be Target, and it got as high as 13 1 13. So it fell 74. Uh NASDAQ points short of that target, but I think there’s also a very good chance that top is in here. There’s that uh and really been running on up to the upside on fumes. Um on this last move to the upside based on the R. S. I. It’s been diverging all the way. I’m even on a daily chart ever since, uh december nine. And on the in Q contract, there’s my count, I think the top is in and I pointed out last week I had an arrow up here and says this looks like a potential five wave Down structure 12345. And um I think way too, it’s a very likely finished. Uh If we do get some upward movement um it’s possible way to isn’t finished, I’ll leave that open as a possibility. But it does look like we had a five wave of structure followed by a deep wave too. And so this um decent chance of this being the beginning of the third wave And 1212. And and you know, it may rebound some, but it doesn’t seem likely that it would um still be in an orange wave to in my opinion For what? It’s going to dial Down to 15 minutes on this. There’s the 1 2 12345 for 34 123 Let’s say 1234. four ft 1 two. Anyway. Rough Way five. But they’re still getting that is Y. five linen Abc Probably a W. Xy Xz for Wave two. This would be maybe another wave one. And um the movement Down is his well overshot Where it would be a b. wave and we would move back up here. So 1-1 two. Pretty bearish, pretty bearish. Um you know this could be basically one and a. Two and A. Um And another. I would I would like I would prefer to call this A. One and a. Two and a one and then an A. B. C. For two. So it might retrace the final late day move to the Downside and take out that high there before it moves higher. So that would have it moving back up to around 12 900 before it moves lower that. Um Otherwise, if we can’t even do that, it’s just flat, bearish. You know, part of the lot of people wondering, well, what’s the catalyst for this? So off? And I think now that we know what the new, we’ve got a real good idea of the proposed stimulus, that stimulus Probably isn’t going to Goldman Sachs did an article about it, it’s at zero hedge um or a summary of the Goldman Sachs assessment of the new stimulus, is it zero hedge? And there’s a lot of this stimulus is probably not gonna make it through. And so what the stimulus, mainly goat goes after, is um you know, putting more money and making more money available for unemployment, um sending out some um what is it? $1400 checks, Which, let’s face it, I mean, how long or does are these checks going to keep this thing going? And with Covid just expanding in this new, um, there’s some scuttlebutt that are something and it’s not scum about, but scientists are saying that this new, more aggressive version of Covid could be the predominant strain of Covid by March. We don’t know for sure if these shots are really going to take care of their, of that yet. I don’t think, um, I think it will, but then there’s been delays in getting enough of the shots and then fast enough. And so there’s still lots of problems. Um, and um, it’s amazing that the, when he came, when they came, the new administration came out with their, their uh, detailed plan, the market started to sell off. And um, because there’s, uh, I don’t know what else there is to coming that’s gonna keep pushing this thing higher. It’s like it was baked in, it was a sell sell the news event, in other words. And but the big thing about it, I felt was that there’s no, none of the big infrastructure plan is in this, they’re saving that for later. And that was going to be the thing that was theoretically gonna be the big supporter of of the economy. And so that isn’t coming. They were they were projecting that that that might be mid year. Well, that’s about how long I think this correction is going to last and then if they come out with this big infrastructure thing, but in your mid year, that could be the catalyst for away, you know, the finish of the five wave structure up from from the march low taking the Dow up over 40,000. But right now no infrastructure, it’s all just band aids, you know, pretty much band aids, um additional unemployment, you know, emergency checks sent out to the households, I can’t remember what else was in there, but there was no infrastructure in there. Um So on the NASDAQ uh things look like, I say things have a very barest look to them, we’re in the red box um and if we do, if we have started into a Wave three Down, small degree Wave three Down in the NASDAQ already. And I think we have, I mean it could get pretty oversold pretty quick and keep going. The thing to remember about how aggressive this, how sharp this move could be from the top is how super one side of the market is up here, the more one side of the market is then I think the more potential there is for its sharp pull back uh as you can see on the NASDAQ has been diverging and the last time we get it exited, overbought territory was way back here. And yet it managed to grind its way a bit higher um, in the A. M. A. Line on the algo. When daily charge is sitting at 12 6 30. So close below that very likely give us a cell signal on the algo. The sentiment Um, got up recently right here to a 92 and these are daily candles. So that was friday last week As high as a 92 and there was a 94 back here. So extremely rich sentiment readings. No uh, no by signal yet on Q. I. D. Two times. Bearish Q. Q. Q. S on the um, on the outcome, uh, the family line is at $7.40 on cue. I’d any kind of close above 7 40 I think we’ll get ourselves up A fresh by signal on the two times. Bearish cues. CTF queue ID wrestle. The Russell had a one more spurt left in the tank I think. And I think it’s very likely done. You can see how extremely overbought it is on a weekly chart or weekly chart and my can is a little different on the Russell did this move up is an abc for a wave one of it of an ending contracting diagonal that it won’t end probably, I’m probably in a couple of years from now, but it’s time the thing about diagonals as, and I’ve got a pulling back to basically support, but um, you can get some really deep, um, retraces, uh, on each leg of, of a diagonal. You know, the, the book says it’s typical in the blue book To see a 66-81 retrace. So that would be massive retrace. Um, and so there’s potential for a big pull back here. I’ve got it only going back to 50 level. And they, and I think another thing about this, this pullback for this wave too, that I’m expecting on the main counts on virtually everything Down to mid years. I think it was very likely considering the cinema conditions that is going to be sharp in the sharpest corrective pullback type. Currently pullback is a zigzag. And so, um, that’s why I’m expecting a zigzag on the wrestle, expecting this initial pull back all the way Down into early March. That’s the daily, here’s the 240 minutes chart and um, there’s um, this, this last fifth wave to the upside I think is finished to see if I’d made a quick drawing for somebody. Yeah, gonna take the and I’ve thrown it in the trash but I’ll pull it back out of the trash just to show you on the Russell, on the Russell. So I’m going to, This is this low, right here is January four, January four and I sent this out to subscribers on friday early uh and see if I find it again, made this starting and sink or swim side. So there’s, I didn’t fly any colors or anything to do, but there’s a January 412123434 And then the fifth wave, one, 23 for five. And it turns out that was the top. And then after that, Um it gave way pretty strongly to the Downside or show that on a 15 minute chart here. And by the way, it’s super important when you’re counting waves to do it on the cash index, you can’t count anything like this on the on the futures contract that this is not what the futures contract looks like. And it doesn’t have these really, really clear wave structures in it on the RTF with his contract, them tracking those both on short term charts. And it’s amazing how deceptive overnight price action can be on these futures contracts. It can it can get you weigh thrown off on your counts. So there’s the one two and 12345 for 12 so far, 12 12 343 four and then 1 2345. And it’s already made it back to the way for one lesser degree. That’s probably a small degree wave one. And that looks like an ACC to the upside for wave two. Um So it could be a 1-1 to set up or this may not be all of the corrections we may get this, this might be like a W. X. Y. Or something correction. Um But anyway, This is my main idea I wanted to show was the really, really clear five wave up structure from the January four low and the Russell. And um it was way it had been over shooting the large degree targets by a fair amount. Um and so it’s due for a do for a top. And so that’s likely it. And and now we start into our correction to the Downside. But, you know, I made this note here, there’s five clear sub waves on the way up here. Who? Yeah. Uh on the NASDAQ, Yeah, we’re getting some 80xL signals and scientists last screen box and it’s just about to move Down past the a tr volatility stop on the on the daily trend falling. But on the Russell, because it has been more aggressive to the upside. You look at the daily trend charts still in the green box is still well above the tr so I’ve pretty overbought here. Um Definite divergence showing on the on the ADX line on daily trend chart there. Oops right, So I think this was a wave one and it’s in a wave too. Um The wave to may even be finished at a very small degree and if it continues strongly lower, Then I I think it’s already in in a way of three. This being wave one and this being waved to there is the potential that it tries to pull back a bit more to open the week to finish that a waved a deeper wave too. Once again on the daily R. T. Y. Chart we have the end of a overbought period and of the friday daily candle. Uh the both the money flow and R. S. I. Have moved out of overbought territory indicating that that candle could support uh a larger Down move and I think it’s very likely to based on all the evidence I’ve shown you so far. Um also have the end of overbought territory in both uh the money flow and R. S. I. On the two times bullish E. T. F. On the wrestle you W. M. And yeah, don’t quite have the end of the oversold territory yet. Um on the R. C. It’s close, very close. So this could turn into a buy signal for T. W. M. Um The two times bearish Russell With a close above 4 45. I did some more work this week on some things that I I kind of had to put on the back burner because so many of the wave counts were really accurate this week. I ahead time without him to change much too go to the individual stocks in update some charts there.
Popular Stocks & VIX (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, TSLA):
So I’ve been keeping you abreast on apple with a monthly screenshot now as well as a weekly. Uh I think that the way be is finished and we’re going to be in a wave see now to the Downside on ample um through mid year you see the massive to massive divergence is one at this high and one of this new high on a weekly chart. Yeah things are looking rather weak. Um Mhm. Uh Last signal we we got on friday was a sell signal on a 240 minute A. D. X. Plus. And that was uh right here. Also, I’ve been working on uh with the wave counts are likely to give us on the other large cap. Most of the most popular stalks on amazon. I think that there’s sideways grind is over and we’re going to move into a selling period on amazon. And um I don’t know if they move Down will be that big, but looking for a move Down through mid year, you know if the wave count is correct, this could be another fourth wave and large degree. So um it might move Down in corrective fashion like a W. X. Y. Something like that. And this could be a triangle, A. B. C. D. E. Even potential triangle there, which would give us a next thing would be a thrust and then a rebound and then more Downward movement. And so that would uh give us a. W. X. Y. So a. And blue B. Triangle see thrust. And I’ve been thinking this might be a triangle in some of these large popular stocks that this side words grind. But you know, the assumption on these stocks is always that it would thrust up out of a triangle. But well I don’t think that’s the way it’s going to thrust. I think it’s going to thrust to the Downside. You know, if we get any kind of little rebound here on monday A. B. C. D. E. It might be the E. Wave of the triangle. Yeah. A. B. C. On amazon. Mhm. Excuse me at the sneeze. So that very well could be what we’re in store for for the first half of this year on amazon definitely has the look of a triangle. Yeah. Um because I’m embarrassed for the first half of this year, I decided that uh that Boeing is probably finished with the way be and moved Down next. In a wave see of of a flat Down through mid year. A. And then abc for B. See and then look for wave see To be a .618. Uh Mhm. 1.618 times the length of blue wave a. And that would be Down to 1 23 on Boeing. It’s currently at 204 This would be a significant drop drop in Boeing percentage wise. 40%. Mhm. Disney I think Disney has the same exact look that Russell the Russell does of a three wave screaming move to the upside recently. If we’re going to get a pull back into mid year then what we like might likely be seen here would be a an ending contracting Diagonal. That would top maybe late in 2020 two. Yeah, but I’m expecting an abc to the Downside next. This has been one of the darling stocks of course, the talking the super bullish. What are you buying now? What are you buying today? You know um talking heads on CNBC, they’re the same ones have been Down there for 20 years. I’ve heard them all talking about how amazon was a buy right now and Disney was a by and that was just late last week now. Did that kind of move right there? I’m I don’t think anything is likely to buy. Not not anymore. Might have been at the beginning of the move, but not after all that. And then here’s the trend following. And you see the Disney just fell through. It’s um a tr volatility stuff on daily chart and to Aaron turned into a pink box for the first time in a while and it it got a DME or ADX cell signal right there that looks bearish. Facebook has been moving to the Downside. The my wave count is that it’s probably going to move Down some more In the 5th wave of this green wave see and then rebound in an X wave and then um more Down toward the middle of the year. So it’s well under way but it does look like it has a decent chance of being a corrective move similar to similar to the chart I showed you on amazon. So Facebook is definitely on a, on a trend following cell signal since Jan six. I’m sorry, facebook is google um still looks like a terminal pattern to me on google and looking for a pullback Down through mid year on google. But it could be that up from the Christmas Love 2018 that this is all um a leading diagonal abc for one of the of the contracting diagnosed too. 345 yeah leading diagonal. And this could be a wave to Down here. Leaving open the possibility still looking for a pullback through mid year. Google is just about to break through this. Um these trend lines narrowing, trend lines Had a slight throw over back here, the all time highs still standing from December three and it is flirting now with the lower uh trend line of this um rising wedge pattern that’s bearish Microsoft, looks like it’s ready to give way. Um And in a way three to the Downside having given us a one and a two uh Down through mid year, I think that will only be a large degree way for and then on up. So in the case of Microsoft, I think this is all a B wave from the March low, up through september high and it’s getting ready to fall, just starting to, to to move. Same thing with netflix. It’s been flirting around, you’re messing around sideways in some kind of pattern and uh, maybe this is a one and a two is just a really nasty sideways wave too. Yeah, and looking for potential deep pull back through mid july next according to Hurst. It is also on a cell signal since January six. Yeah, Tesla is still hovering near all time highs last week scandal. Um, I think there’s a name for that kind of weekly candle as far as candlestick reading goes. Um, but anyway, it’s an inside bar, um, some indecision, some definite divergence. Uh, I think this has all been a thrust out of a triangle and I think, you know, I’m become more comfortable with the potential of this is a major top on Tesla. And it started moving Down, you can see on Fridays candlelight came Down enclosed, right at the um, a line. So any kind of close below On this daily trend following chart that I am a line and we’re very likely to this, this green buy box, which has been in place since November 17 will end going to be very advisable, highly advisable to take profit on Tesla if you’re long. And Tesla were within an eyelash of getting that kind of signal and that’s on a train following chart, wal mart, I think is probably topped. And last week scandal was particularly bearish as it tried to rally, couldn’t hold it and close to near the bottom of the daily candle that we’re moving Down through mid year on walmart. Um, and we ended the week on walmart with a trend following self signal notice that it closed way Down here below the amma and the Obama turned red and that’s on a daily trend following template. That is also bearish. J. P. Morgan has been screaming higher recently came out with blowout earnings and yet it was Down on the day. Um And that a lot of times um if you get blowout awesome earnings and you get a sell off because of it, that’s a bad sign on the short term. Especially if it’s been training really really much stronger um into earnings. And you’ll notice that we have a walter breast cert uh not walter browser but it’s over uh stretched trend condition on the daily chart. The ADX. Is not only well above 60. Yeah It’s a it hits about 70 advisor amazingly lousy chart for the company that’s theoretically making the zillions of doses of of this stuff serum that’s going to be administered around. It’s hard to say why, you know, the stock really couldn’t do any better than that. Very poor. That’s right. Andby the way, Cerner embarrassment, you know, through the middle of year on most um, most stocks, the fix as you’ll notice on the vics. Uh, hang up. We’ve been uh really interesting situation. Events VIX where the logo for the fourth quarter happened on November 27. We haven’t had a new loan epics ever since. And while the stock market’s been moving to new all time highs recently, the vix showing some bullish divergence. So this is interesting and I did a new fsc cycle analysis on it and it is bullish on the vics from Jan 15 through feb seven, pull back through late february and then on up all the way through May two currently. Very interesting on the vics. But yeah, there’s, we got an oversold condition on the R. S. I. All the way back in late november. And it’s been um diverging ever since On the 240 minutes chart. We’re definitely on a bicycle on the vics on the daily chart. The daily trend chart. The last actual signal we got was a by but and we haven’t seen any cell signals recently on the A. M. A. L. A. Girl. Um we were on a bicycle on the vics on on Jan 12 and it’s currently in profit. And that signal came just two days after a dSC reading of eight on the vics, so that looks promising. Mhm commercials are heavily, heavily long. The VIX, the large specks are heavily, heavily short the commercials on it as six month look back heavily long the VIX, The Dsi recently in eight um what looks like the big money is prepared for a pullback in the stock markets. Um um and and are potentially hedging against it by buying? Probably calls on the vics, the N Y S. E. Advance decline ratio. 13 day exponential moving average. Here’s a, here’s an interesting one. The all time high On the S&P is back on January eight. This indicator actually made a slight new high after that. And yet price really couldn’t. The actual SNP itself couldn’t make a new high. And so that is a unusual divergence. Usually these dates come in right on the money on this, so a little bit of divergence there and then you can see a giving way. I think that’s bearish and the total put call ratio. Um, As far as I’m concerned, amateur hour has continued, you know, Robin Hood our or whatever. But look how low we ended the week. They’re on the 15th. On this indicator. This is, this is a daily chart. I mean, we did see a lower low. In other words, the holding of puts is almost non existent, Nobody hedging. As far as the majority of traders, the great majority of traders On 1223 we did get the lowest spike we’ve seen in weeks, but we’re were Down near some recent lows that we saw back in october now to close the week on the daily. And then when you look at the weekly, I mean it’s the bullishness has hardly budged. Uh, the bullet, this level of bullishness even to end the week. It’s so, um, extraordinary that when this thing implodes, I just think it’s all going to turn into a really sharp move very sharp and so I’m looking for a pullback in the S&P-500. This is the S. And P. Uh to finish this flat through about mid year. And so I think we’re probably going to see an explosive move to the upside on the potent of total put to call ratio. Um As um a lot of these bullish positions we get stopped out. Oh, when I had I meant to show you, but um it’s not not required. There’s one other thing on that. Okay.
Moving on to sectors. Um The transports, I think it gets pulled back through mid year. I think it’s just going to be a wave too. But I think it would probably be a pretty sharp pullback here. Uh So that first start was the, sorry was the transports looking for that pullback on utilities. Like looking for a wave to pull back through mid year. X. L. E XL li looking for a pullback through the end of february and then then more upside Through April 12. But then generally Of finding a investable low somewhere mid year around July 14 according to Hurst. I think we’re just in a be wave right now. Um A. B. C. Expanded flat right now in Excel lee, here’s a closer look, So a nice five wave up structure followed by an A. Of a flat B. Of an expanded flat. And now it’s starting to give way and I think it it moves Down strongly through late february. In a way of seeing, in my opinion, if you’re still long large cap oil, I think it’s a good time to get out of there. And by the buying back lower, you can see extremely overbought on the daily chart. It hasn’t quite exited. Um Overbought territory, the R. S. I. Has, but the money flow hasn’t but one more day of Down and the money flow is very likely to close out of overbought territory. And that would create another one of these pink stripes. Um And I think that would mark the beginning our early still be early on in the sea wave Down in five waves expecting in large cap oil stocks. You can see the Algo took profit on friday, The X. And the the daily Algo and Excel lee took profit on friday because of a loss of momentum. The walter brother came Down and crossed over its moving average. It closed out a nice winning trade there part saying in other words it’s saying get out on monday, the markets are closed monday but get out I guess on Tuesday. Yeah. Uh huh. Daily trend chart. You know it’s flirting with its um adaptive moving average. I think it’s going to move lower. Let’s move to banking. Mhm. Uh I think baking has moved as high as it can go right now. It has done it in five waves have done very aggressively and I think that’s the way they and we’re going to get away, be pulled back Down through mid year on banking stocks. So that this would also mean that were I think that yields which have been moving higher, are going to move lower, start moving lower and they have started um moving lower. Uh and I think they’ll continue through about mid year. That a lot of the um zeal toward banking sector has been because of rising yields, but like I say for now, I think it’s over and we’re going to pull back through, let’s say may initial pullback through mid february, maybe late february. But this does look like a completed five wave up structure. Even the 5th wave up 12345, her 121234345. Um And this the has moved on out of overbought territory. Now on this indicator around love what this indicator does now in the trend. It’ll it’ll give you some false signals but um it will give you an extended period of overbought or oversold. But at the point that it ends, it’s a good signal. So I find it to be a meaningful new indicator. We’re going to be looking at what a bit this year. Mhm. As far as the algo goes on, K. B. E. It’s still in a long position. But It has recommended now 1 23 candles a row to um tighten the stop to trail the stop. And uh and but here’s the key. And as a premium plan. Remember when you get one of these charts and you see these little arrows up here, that means if a small opposing arrow appears change, stop to trailing, tighten, tighten, stop. But the real key is this is probably not going to come all the way Down and get stopped Down. It’s very likely on tomorrow Tuesday. It would normally be monday if the market was open buddy going to close out the trade anyway because the walter breast shirt, which has some Downward momentum now will cross over the moving average and that will create uh one of these red blocks here and up here and I’ll say get out and it’s gonna be lucky to get out in profit. Frankly, I think um On the 240 minutes chart, you know, we got another walter Brassard. We don’t have a Red box yet. In order to get a pink cell zone box on the 240 minute. It would need to close below this am a line. And you can see it’s it’s getting Down to it now. Um We also have uh the end of an overbought period there. Um The second last candle of the week. We gotta walter Brassard on that candle. And we also got a sell signal on the ADX DMI system, trend following system. We don’t have a pink box yet that’s based on the um a bis own cell zone system that’s running in the background on these ADX. Plus charts. Um marijuana stocks. I think they’re going to pull back with the rest of the market. But um And I think it’s in a. B. Way. I think it’s going to pull back now. I. B. B. Has reached a potential target for a top. It’s been screaming higher. Um This looks like a triangle. This looks like a thrust set of the triangle and it looks like a thrust of a triangle in 12345 waves. Very toppy looking here on I. B. B. Real estate I think has got some more Downward price action. Uh that it needs to put put in. Um right, it could be kind of whip sausage, it could be that it moves Down, but then realizes, hey, yields are coming Down. That means 30 year mortgage interest rates are coming Down and that might boost give a temporary boost to real estate. The thing about real estate that this real estate chart that I want to point out to you though is this upward movement? It does appear to be choppy, overlapping and corrective home builders uh made new high last week. And, but I think it’s still very, very toppy looking at it and it’s at just barely overshot. I’m a pretty good target for a top. I think it’s going to pull back through midyear and possibly a little later XRT real estate also had another up week and uh, I think that it’s going the way of the Russell. It’s moving up aggressively in abc for wave one of a diagnosed and the eventual target for the end of the fifth wave isn’t that much higher. So it’s going to be choppy over the next year and a half, two years I think. But the next strong move Down In my opinion for Wave two of an eventual ending contracting Diagram. Um, unfortunately on shippers, something has happened on my feet. I’ll have to contact trade navigating the trade navigator people and find out why my Baltic dry index, it’s no, hasn’t been uh, streaming or adding on any new data for Week 1/2 or so. So I really don’t have anything new for you on, on the shippers.
Shippers (Baltic Dry Index):
Um, other than it does appear that Wave three has started uh, to the upside on on the shippers. And um, you know, if you glance through some of the shippers that I was spotlighting some weeks back, most of them have been moving to the upside. Most of them have been moving to the upside, but not all of them. Uh just a quick glance through some nice upward movement. Really nice upward movement. Um, a little bit of up. Very generally, pretty, pretty nice upward movement recently, but because I am expecting this pullback through mid year, um, I’d be awfully careful about uh, you know, if you’ve got some huge profits here, um, it might be a good idea to take some off the table through mid year. Um Like this particular pattern looks like a potential leading diagonal to the upside nick. Could give back some through the middle of the year. You know, not all of them. Uh Not all so not all of them are screaming here, but some of them are, some of them are. No, There’s an amazing when screaming higher, but now it’s in an 80x. Over overbought condition. And this looks like a 12345. So it’s possible if we’re going to get a pullback in the stock market through mid year. Did we get pulled back back to the way for one lesser degree? Just be aware of that. This is uh I’m I’m warning you, mm that’s that’s definitely possible. Um Lng partners screaming higher. So the timing of when I started covering these pretty darn good. So it was similarly excellent to the timing when I warned of um of a move up in the uranium stocks as well as a move up in the oil stocks. All of those recently have been really dynamite sector calls that have come through our service and these webinars some yeah some definitely to move higher. It’s very minimum. You might set some, you might set some some stops on them. You know in profit. I don’t necessarily have to get all the way out here is the one that’s been lagging but last week was up pretty nice. Um definite lag er here it’s a pure play on oil tankers and it really hasn’t been doing very good. So it’s not universal. Not there’s some some that have been at the lag but most of them generally moving up really nice move to the upside. I’m a little worried about how parabolic some of these moves on our um you know when they if they get into a parabolic mode that’s often unsustainable but it’s hard to call a top on it too. Uh Not so much um upper movement here. Just still grinding sideways a little bit of up, not that much here. And so just giving a quick uh just taking a couple minutes out of the webinar showing showing these individual stocks you can freeze to the playback if you want to look at look at them. But Um I would say four out of five have been aggressively moving higher in all the ones that I’ve been showing. But there’s a few laggards, certainly an interesting sector and it could be that the these were just so severely beaten Down. Just that uh it’s not like even if we got into a recession or worse shipping isn’t going to come to to an end. It just calls out the the weak hands and you end up with a strong hands and they have a higher market share. I did read an article about how they um it costs more today. Their their pricing power is really strong so they’re very welcome to very well could be that the a lot of the weekends have been shaken out of the sector and they the only ones left kind of charge an arm and leg gets to ship something from point A. To point B. That appears to be the case. Uh huh. So moving on, I’ll have to get to the bottom of the Baltic dry but you know the last, It was still streaming as of 10 days ago and it was moving up strongly. Now moving to the miners.
Mining Stocks (GDX):
I have a new addition to the mining sector set of charts that I, I’m going to show you this week and that is um, you are a, the uranium ITV. So I prepared a chart for you on this. Um, and um, this is all the data that I have Goes back to 2011 or 2011 was very likely. If that wasn’t the top tech on, on a February four of 2011, then it probably was very, very close to the top tech. And so I think it’s pretty, pretty reasonable. Two. Look at this and try to count it as a one two three triangle for four Thrust of the Triangle for five. And when I do that, this target here was a point where way five would be 50.382 times the net traveled of one through three Times .382. What from the high point inside of way for notice that I’m not majoring from the end of the triangle. And this is I think something you should I a technique you should use. And I’ve seen one other excellent Fibonacci wave counter guy do this where even though you’ve got a triangle for way forward, you draw your fibonacci from the extreme within the way for program and that that is more likely to give you some strong Fibonacci targets. And in this case it certainly did. And the move up since that low, it appears so far to be in three waves been pretty aggressive. I mean you are a Back in March was $6.95 a share. And it recently, just a week before last hit 1704 share. So, so this has been putting up some extremely uh aggressive rarely. And so I did Hurst on it and it is looking for a pullback through mid year. This is the reason I wanted to do um you’re a because I’ve been using C. C. J. Specific uranium stock but I wanted to look at the sector and see what hers thought and it’s some pretty much in agreement that this trough and March was a large degree trough. And we got a 40 week cycle trough right here and around Halloween. This is almost universal. So in and now looking for a pullback into an 18 month cycle trough about mid year. I’m even shown some dates here of how it might pull back in a zigzag and then more upside long term is um um The one concerning thing I see on on Cindy and trader is that the this is following this Indian traders composite line road map and that it expects the top late in 2021. And then more Down. I think it’s very likely to morph into something different by the time we get there. But it is interesting that it is expecting a pullback. Um uh And so if you this is why I I’ve been churning C. C. J. And we have uh I think a potential 1212 bullish situation underway but we may get a longer lasting wave to associated with this next 18 month cycle trough do about mid year. Then what uh I was necessarily showing on the C. C. J. H. R. And I’m sorry mate. A I forgot L. I. T. I know you mentioned that last week. Um So I’m gonna open up a chart and just take a quick peek at it. I I won’t be able to do any wow it’s just been screaming higher. I don’t have very much data unfortunately. Uh Yeah. What a screaming move. Uh As a matter of fact I would call that a parabolic move and um Which I’m not sure I’m gonna measure up what a major an expansion off of this law in 2015. Uh you know there’s a fibonacci expansion target at 78 12. That’s getting close to this move up has been so aggressive. It’s hard to count any waves inside of it. It kind of looks like the wrestle. Look at the Fibonacci expansion. A 12345 or five five. Yeah. Well and and you already already talking about my Tesla um My expectation for Tesla, you see how overbought it is lately. It’s too late to buy this in my opinion. I mean way too late. It’s gone parabolic but it’s interesting. Very interesting. Um Too far too fast. Um If you ask me. Yeah, I mean I’m not interested in chasing this, that’s for other people. Um That’s held the move In this 1234 and extended 5th way. Um Let’s make sure I’m in similar again. Well I can see it hit in 78 12. That’s the next Fibonacci target expansion target off of its five wave up move. Um Mhm. So there it is. Yeah. Find waves up abc. Now this this is a corrective three wave moved Down but I think it’s moved too far to be a B wave. You know that would be the expectation for the top of a. B. Wave at 56 78. You see it’s sharp pass that it doesn’t mean it it isn’t a B wave but um of all of these Fibonacci, I tell the ones that I the Fibonacci tool that I have started using, that I that I think you should definitely incorporate on a similar chart view is the expansion tool and that’s that’s this one right here, where you you want to see what the expansion is off of some of these levels. Like if this is a wave one And then 1, 2, maybe this is a 1, 2, 3, 4. No, that that came Down too low, Too low for four, But sometimes you can spanned off the top of wave one And you can get some dude targets and that the obvious target that really worked there is the expansion off of wave one would be the end of way five. There was 1.618 expansion off the off the top of wave one, that is a fibonacci target that I have started using. That is amazing how accurate it can be from time to time. So just looking for expansion of way one to the end of the 5th wave 1.618 relationships. So that explains that top. But then the question then we get into, you know, what’s where’s the next level for a potential top here? And at that point, you if, if you’re looking for an abc and that’s it, Then you would look for an expansion of .382 Or .618 And you can see the .382 is being expanded. That’s why I say it’s likely to go on up to 78 and then of course, you have the old trusty uh Looking for a way of three, That is 1.618 times the length of way of wine, And that is at 95. So it’s possible, this is just an abc, as long as it doesn’t overshoot by very much 78 otherwise we’re probably looking at a wave three And we’re probably looking at a target of 95 14 next. Um with what’s going to happen on the U. S. Dollar over the next little bit I would expect to pull back through mid year and then potentially much much higher as we get our scream screaming inflationary move after that starts around the beginning of the year. So there that’s just a quick look at it. You know I don’t have oh I’m not done here, I gotta show you GTX and quite a bit more work I did. So in GDX I’m very concerned about GDX. It hasn’t been acting well and um for those of you that I had to literally talk you out of chasing this most recent move hide or and I know there’s quite a few of you that really were interested in and they thought that this it was very popular to think that this move to the upside was gonna keep screaming to the upside and this was a major trough low and is moving higher. And my main concern and it continues to be was that was looking for the end of the fifth way Down the U. S. Dollar. I think we have that now and that is explaining to some degree why we’re getting some of this aggressive selloff at this juncture. I was worried about how the what the reaction would be When the dollar did bottom with in its 5th wave and started into a multi month upward wave to correction. And that’s why I placed this on many of these charts is that we could continue to see weakness in this sector all the way to july if the U. S. Dollar is going to be in a wave to all the way to way to july, it’s a major concern. And man, I had to fight with some of you men who did you know? We’re used to like argue almost got to argument about it and I’m fairly unfriendly terms. But uh this I hope I saved you a lot of money from getting in uh the wrong time. Um And I don’t think this corrects. The Downside correction is over and it’s gaining steam and it’s and now that it has this bounce on the U. S. Dollar as a as a major headwind. Um um I got to tell you. Uh huh. Uh huh. That it’s uh it’s a major concern about me getting about me showing you too bullish of account too early. Oh absolutely yeah that the pullback would continue through here. Yeah. The only thing, the only reason that isn’t the main count Greg is because it’s not necessarily being suggested by Hurst. But if we get enough Downward movement here we could see Hurst morph into something that was more bearish. Um And on the U. S. Dollar I expect this bounce in the U. S. Dollar to last probably into March. So I’m very concerned about um about this potential low here, very concerned about it uh being my main count and I just wanted to make sure that you knew knew that now I do have a way for this to kind of work even with the the bottom in july. And that is that we would see the end of this triple zigzag in let’s say early february. And then we would get I move up in a wave one and then a wave to pull back into july. In other words the dollar strengthening would kind of keep keep the miners in a sideways mode all the way to july before they really took off because remember my expectation is starting in july on the U. S. Dollar index that it’s going to plummet and so I’m still think there’s going to be a major buying opportunity for this sector. A really major buying opportunity where it could scream higher in a big way. But if if it’s going to move opposite the U. S. Dollar index that isn’t that really that screaming move it really isn’t due until july. So I’m just issuing this verbal warning that um yeah this could be the end of a triples exact or a double zigzag in this case W. W. X. Yeah doubles exam but this could turn into a triple zigzag And and maybe not and maybe give a full 618.618 retrace by the time we get to july and maybe this is the end of Y. And here’s another X. Wave and then this is a Z. Wave Down so be aware of that. But right at the moment um it’s you know now that the U. S. Dollar has just now showing a little bit alive to the upside. This is starting to get real aggressive. So yeah I wouldn’t try to buy here too early and that’s that’s my warning. Um I’ve even seen you know there’s there’s some popular wave counts out there that are calling the early august top in gold the end of a teal or cycle degree way B. And they’re they’re trying to find a way to count this as the beginning of an impulse. And the most popular discussion of that is that it has started with a leading diagonal Leading Diagonal c 12345. Yeah that looks pause now see you know supposed to get a new low and diagnose moving threes. So abc for one abc for to see that new low right there, each leg of a diagonal is supposed to be a zigzag or something from the zigzag family. And this right here abc that is a flat with a new low in it. So that doesn’t support the diagonal idea. So um I don’t and I tried to count a diagonal to the Downside as a wave one in gold and it doesn’t work either. So I think I’m right and I think that the Downward movement from early august is corrective but I’m worried about that. It may last in corrective fashion all the way to july before and and the and therefore the U. S. Dollar has to finish its um wave two before the next major bind. Hold opportunity without having to kind of trade in and out of it. Uh So um I don’t think it’s I don’t think it’s impulsive to the Downside. I don’t see a legitimate way to count it that way. Yeah. Unless it’s a series of (121 211 21212 Super parish. And I Those stacked up 121212 counts once you get into the third one to the likelihood of that actually being cracked is really small. Yeah I’ve seen plenty of 1- 1/2. But boy it’s real rare. Labeling something As next three sets of 1/2. That that ends up being correct. So I like the corrective nature and that’s going to be my main count. I’m gonna stick with that. Tried to try to find a way to be more bearish about it. But right now I don’t see a legitimate way from an Elliott wave standpoint to count. This is yeah. Part of an impulse. Uh huh. But it yeah, it’s it gets its getting spanked pretty good. And this is uh frankly exactly. It’s moving exactly the way I thought it would. It’s doing exactly what I thought it would so far. And we’ll see if you can put in, if it can find support in this winDow right here, somewhere between late January and mid february, if you can find support. And I did some work on the other charts uh G. D. X. J. You know, once again I think we need to be very careful of what’s going to happen to us dollar through approximately july Yeah, this looks like a 1234 Like it’s in the fifth wave now But it could still be the 3rd way of 121234345 on Down. So we’ve got lower targets but definitely getting getting hit silver stocks, S. I. L. Silver stocks definitely getting hit pretty hard right now. Uh These are all fresh hurst and fresh FFC dates we’re looking for continued Downside through late in the month and um FFC is expecting a move up But only through March 17. And so this is how this could turn into a triples exact W. X. An abc. For why another X. Wave in the Z. Wave Down through july definite possibility, definite possibility. Yeah Hurst is a bit more bullish the net. Looking from late January up through early May Down into Augustine and then on on on up for in January 2022. But my main concern is what’s going to happen now and still looking lower uh copper miners. S. S. C. O. P. X. You can see a completed five wave structure to the upside. Looking for a pullback Down through mid year, Hurst says through early june fsc cycle says through mid May and there’s a winDow for the top up here uh deeply overbought and showing um some weakness here with this last candle last week. Took another look at a G. This is fresh. Fresh count on a G. I’m looking for a G to continue to the Downside. All according to Hurst All the way to April eight. And before you get too aggressive saying well the young hurts. This hurts that, you know, be aware Hurst during these corrective times since early august I think has been doing a pretty darn good job on the miners and gold. And it’s been doing very well. So I don’t I don’t think it’s a good idea to poo poo on it. Um On this at this time it’s it’s been rolling pretty good. Um And then potential low in april notice that there isn’t an 18 month cycle trough due until August on on a G. Just be aware embarrassed on egg Through at least April eight. Um Got the potential for some Downward action on on this, on the on the our assigned Down here a weekly chart. The R. S. I. Was warning of the top all the way back uh near near that august high just after it. Similar to it warning giving the same warning back here and similar to giving a bullish warning right here after this little green stripe Down here. Uh huh. Barrack, I’ve done a new some new work on barrack. I think barracks moving lower at some juncture. You know the big money, the institutional money will get back interested here. Um But it uh it looks like it’s got another leg Down abc for W. And then the next wave and then abc on Down. I think Mark’s moves lower. I didn’t do anything. They’re new, they’re Newmont still looking lower. Um And it could turn into a triples exactly doesn’t bottom until july so um I’m certainly not recommending doing any buying in this sector at this time. I think that it’s gonna move lower and it’s got several more weeks, the Downward movement before before it’s done. Uh even the strongest stocks uh you know, A. G. A. U. Y. Uh C. D. E. E. Q. X. F. Sm. Go row. Maybe not as strong as it once was. Hair club to that, you know, Uh Actually got an email from some subscribers, give me all kinds of crap about, you know, you’re missing the move and heckling who came in right about here and now it’s puking out and I don’t think it’s anywhere near moving, done moving Down and N. G. D. Sand SV. M. All these are getting hit. Uh uh This is uh wheaton. Now, wheaton looks like a nice fi way, move up and the Downward movement does look corrective. Abc X. A. B. C. Another X wave and then an A B. A. B. C. Still yet to go. Um I think what we could drop all the way back to 32-87. I was looking at that, you know, that this is a good stock and, and at some point this year it’s gonna be screaming behind. Not yet. Okay. See the head and shoulders pattern on wheat. Just noticed that giant head and shoulders pattern. I’m going to tell you that one more time, but yeah. Okay, come on, Pushing this old 32 bit program to absolute limits uh head, left shoulder, right shoulder, put textbook. So, you know, if you’re just Yeah, and and the the uh neckline is almost perfect. And so uh just using traditional hidden shoulders uh from the head Down to the neck line and then looking for that. Well, it’s been a while since I did hidden shoulders with it said, is that expecting a move that far below the neckline? I can’t remember. Or is it or below this second shoulder. Anyway, Then that’s got potential getting getting all the way back to $30 30 a share. Um um On just using a traditional head and shoulders, um object price objective. Mhm. All right. Moving on to european stock indices.
Markets outside the U.S:
No real big changes here on the dax. Looking for a pullback through mid year. Uh For way too. So this is a bullish count. Um But not until mid year. It’s bearish until then. And uh so this is up from the March low counting. Um uh Wave one to the upside through the early september high three waves Down for a of a flat a corrective B to the upside that it stopped going up, ride in the perfect target zone for way beat and then looking for a pullback, I’m going to say for 2 10,008 77. Um For wave, see Um a sharp pullback in five waves before it goes higher. Uh So you can see how very close uh The dax came to hitting of real typical target for away be of an expanded flat. That’s where way B. Is 1.382 times the length away. They right there very close now. It’s looking like it’s very likely done moving up for now looking for that five way structure town to mid year. Uh Could see it move all the way Down, You know on this chart to 10,000 to 45 I think it’s very likely to move below the wave. A target here in five waves. And that was 11472 by the time of bottoms on friday, the trend following. Algo gave an A. D. X. Cell signal on daily charts. Uh How long ago? Um hasn’t put in a sell order yet. Um And but it’s on a negative walter bry sur crossover. It would need for the M. A. Line to roll over and start. And it’s flattened out here to roll over and start sloping to the Downside in order to get a cell signal. Well, we recently moved Down out of overbought territory on the R. Side and its continued lower. Very pretty bearish. Looks like the barrett’s beginning of something larger. To the Downside. Um Footsie. Um I expecting a five waves move to the Downside after way be of an expanded flat. So this move to the Downside was corrective for wave. This looks like an abc to the upside and where it came very close to hitting target. For the end of the baby, Where we be of an expanded lamp would be 1.382 times the length of wave. A. And I think we have commenced in the Downward journey now and um there was that target, It almost hit it. And um I think we’re moved Down in five waves to 51-89 before um seeing um our next um the start of our next major bowl move. How how big of a move Down would that be from the recent top percentage wise? 24%. It’s already Down some of that. Some 23%. Yeah. Mhm. The daily trend for a learning target. Um It’s moved Down and found support at the uh adaptive moving average so far when it on the daily chart, when it closes below the adaptive moving average, which is currently at 66 74. I think it will create a cell signal. Mhm. Um Hang sang. Hang saying even in the face of uh the dollar strengthening last week, put in an additional bullish candle on weekly candle. But I still think it’s going to pull back through about mid year next along with about everything else. Um The upward movement from the low in March Does give the appearance initially of being corrective but I suspect that it’s it’s a very bullish one running flat for two and then a nice clean five weight structure. The upside for another wave one and it’s time for another wave to Down through late May probably For it moves on up in a wave three of 3. So it’s a very bullish count after it. It gives a pull back now in the case of E. E. M. It looks a little different from the ain’t saying and it looks like it is just now finishing a five wave of structure. And within the 5 5th wave 12345. It’s slightly overshot but did not close above a target. Where way five pink would be equal to net To the net. Travel to one through 3 paint times .618. The best target we have for fifth waves. Looking for a sharp pullback to the way 41 lesser degree before moving higher. And that would be back through 42 29 on the E. M. by approximately mid year. Um, notice on the, on the algo from the E. M. It’s still in a winning trade but with on friday E. M. Pulled back quite a bit and you’ll notice that it’s now exited overbought territory on the R. S. I. Indicator. And the walter brassard is within an eyelash of say of producing a crossover a red block. And that would be an exit signal. And I think we’re gonna get that on the next candle, daily candle on E. M. And exit signal on this on this um, nice profitable trade so far, mm shanghai, looking for the finish of an expanded flat Down through mid year. Looking to the Downside, Nikkei looking for a pullback through mid year, there would be uh, wave to of an ending, contracting diagonal. And we do eventually top out a couple of years from now, year and a half, maybe two years. Um, but looking for a pretty steep pull back for wave two of that diagonal. Canadian stock market, looking for a pullback for a wave too back through mid year, uh, could be a steep pull back before moving high, quite a bit higher. Eventual target is 21 400 on the TsX Australian stock market, looking for a pullback for a wave be Down to the, went back to the way for one listener degree next. Um, it, it doesn’t look like it’s probably quite finished the fifth wave to the upside, but it just stubbornly won’t move any higher. And with everything else turning over expect their sex will as well and moved Down through july august time frame Back to 59 70 before moving higher, Nifty 50 and continued to uh, seek higher prices. But I’m looking for it to pull back through mid year, just like everything else, it could be that that pullback is just a wave too and then it moves on up to more screaming, blow off new highs over the next couple of years. Um, in this particular case is going to be very instructive on whether this move, this pullback move to the way four of one lesser degree. It’s going to be in five waves or if it’s going to be in three, that, that will be important. And then brazil looking for that pullback through mid year,
So if we’re going into a period of risk off now, I’ve been talking about this for a while and I think it’s finally arrived. Seems took forever. Um Okay. One thing I will say about Elliott Wave is in Elliott Wave, there really isn’t a pre established target For the end of a wave one. Yeah. Uh there really isn’t a predetermined target for the end of the way one. It could be back to the way for one lesser degree. Sometimes that would work. Sometimes not depending on how aggressive that movement have to get. Uh But this all of the movement up from the March Low, probably wave one and most most items. And in the case of junk bonds, very similar expectation that it was a wave one through early september maybe august september time frame. And now it’s an expanded flat and it’s going to roll over here and give away, see to the Downside through mid year. The way B of the expanded flat did overshoot by a little bit hell high one would normally expect it to go. But it’s looking weak all of a sudden now looking for that pullback uh T. L. T. I think it’s going to get a flight to safety um bid during this pullback through mid year. And so I’m looking for for bonds to move higher and yields to move lower. There also could be goosed by um kiwi coming from the fed. They could jump into some kiwi on a moment’s notice with any kind of Downward hint of Downward movement. Getting getting a head of steam. And it could be back in buying these bonds uh in droves. And uh so that I think there’s strong potential for a bottom here and and a reversal in a move to the upside on bonds. Uh The all of the bearish talk about bonds and the bullish talk about uh yields and uh has recently reached a fever pitch. Yeah. And so I think it’s time time for that turn as you can see on the T. L. T. 240 minutes chart looking um uh the the RSE moved out of overbought territory. I’m sorry, oversold territory similar to what I did here and here. Both of those were followed by bounces there. But I think the discount is going to be bigger than those. And the oversold territory was larger and longer lasting here recently and it was on either though. So that’s suggesting that this amounts is just just beginning on the daily chart. You see it’s flirting with closing above the adaptive moving average on TLT and that would be bullish. So um yeah, still counting it is an unfinished and I’ll show this on the ZB contract. There’s unfinished very long term pattern here. In my opinion that is that From the 1981 low we’re going to a. B. C. Structure. Looking for ways see to equal wave A. It hasn’t hit that target yet. And also Looking at this as an ending expanding diagonal. And uh way four of the expanding dialogue started back in October 2008 and gave up gave a nice five wave structure. The upside in the Downward movement I think can best be characterized as corrective. It’s choppy, it’s overlapping. This doesn’t look like wave three business here. It’s to chopping overlap. So um in in in the case of the C. B. Uh counting this is a five wave up structure for wave A. And in a corrective way be looking to for it to bounce and move to the upside. Um Hurst doesn’t think it doesn’t take it bottom, still January 29. But I’m just as you know this year we’re committed to using hurst is strictly a guideline. Not not a verbatim rule at all. Um And and so when you look at the ZB chart and you look at this Downward movement it does look corrective like an A. B. C. And then an abc and then an abc. They’re being basically matter of fact that from this high here it could be a triples exact a triangle for Bc. For W. An X. Wave A be expanding ending diagonal for wave C. To end wave Y. Three ways up for another ex wife and three waves Down for a wire wave. It actually didn’t move below pink to invalidation that’s looking kind of jumpy. We also have the end of a of a deeply oversold period and computer green stripe on because it’s moving up out of that, that deep oversold territory on the other side. We’ll see what kind of rally can put in. But at least for now, um bullish. Notice the commercials on the ZB contract or heavily long uh uh large specks heavily short. This looks like it might want to be kind of bottom me the day, daily cinnamon index and move up in the six month. Look back commercials long commercials as a percent of open interest long and the ZN contracts same long term count. And I think this needs to be an abc zigzag up to a target to finish. Uh And uh so far, I think we’ve got a five wave up structure here and in a corrective uh structure here. Either in the way be ending over here possibly very quickly. A lightning quick be back in March, you know, one three Ways for AW. An X. Wave more corrective movement Down if I label this is a W. And this is an X. And this is why price moves right Down to an almost tact Where Wave Y would be equal to wave W tons 1.618. And now it’s looking kind of jumping up out of here. Also the on this daily chart we can see that the oversold territory that there are the prices caused has moved up enough now to move up out of over sold territory on the sea. The last time we got we got something like that was right here And it’s in a green by box. And then the most recent signaling a 240 minutes Was an up signal back here on the 12th. Uh huh. Um on the the algo. It’s been on a cell signal since Jan six. And you can see that we on friday we gotta walter breast or crossover and an exit signal. So it’s saying get out of the short of your short trade. The short trade on the ZN contract on bonds, loss of Downward momentum. Okay let’s go to onto commodities now crude oil.
Crude Oil & Natural Gas:
So uh crude oil I think it’s in a bullish pattern after that capitulation though in april and that it’s moving up in an abc. first moved up in five ways for an a Down in corrective lee for away B. And now it’s moving up in a way one and then it’s going to give I’m pulled back multi month pull back for wave two. So here’s the move to the upside From the end of that black way be (121 234 34 12345. Yeah, it kind of looks like it might need 5th wave 1/5 wave, small degree 5th wave up before tops on this, On this blue wave one. But it’s getting awfully close to the top. You can see that it’s in a a cycle winDow for a top. And I’m looking for a corrective pullback. Hers thinks all the way to september 8 28. Uh of this year. I’m I’m putting most of these Pullbacks Down into like june time frame. This one I’ve got in july, the fsC cycle program is expecting Downward movement through mid april. Next Here’s the 240 Oh and on the daily chart, uh Fridays Downward movement was enough to end the overbought situation in the money flow index and versus RC indicator. And that’s give us a pink stripes. So that’s the reason I put a potential end of the blue one already already in place. But as we move into the 240 minutes chart, I don’t think I see enough subdivisions to call a top yet on crude oil up from this black be low on november 11212 3, 4 34 And then 123 45. So I think I’m crude oil is likely to buck the trend. You know, I think we’ve seen a top in some of the equities, Most of the equities into indices and I think oil might stay up for a bit longer to finish. The fifth wave could move as high as 58 55 although this last string of overbought territory has ended. So, but I don’t see enough subdivisions yet and it hasn’t hit the best. Fibonacci target For the end of the pink 5th wave either. So it might find a way to move higher on some sort of news or something. But I don’t think it’s quite put in top yet. There are some things that are looking a little bit more immediately bearish on crude oil. One is on the daily chart, it has reached overbought territory. In other words, the Adx is above 60 on the last four daily candles. So um it’s pretty stretch. That doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s for sure topped. But I think it means that it has at least probably hit the top For a small degree wave three within the upward movement. Also the algo uh we saw the end of overbought territory on the R. S. I. And on friday we saw an exit signal And it’s been on a long signal, six G. and six is saying get out. Um So then also is uh indicative that maybe we’re, maybe this is as high as it can go for now. The the only hit 75, so it’s the D. C. Definitely has room for some higher near the region’s than that. Um, So I’m not, I’m not willing to call a top and yet noticed that the commercials have been fading. This last move to the upside, They moved to heavily short already. Uh large speculators are heavily long commercials, heavily short on six month. Look back every short DC 75, so it’s getting pretty stretched, but I’m not willing to call top tick on it yet. Net gas. Uh nat gas I do think is going to give a surprise move to the Downside. Uh, there’s been a lot of bullish talk about nat gas lately and I think they’re going to be right. But I think in order to finish this pattern, it needs it needs to shake out all the shooting the weak hands and I think it will do it, it will move Down into late January possible, probably into february to the way four of one lesser degree. And then a potential major by right there on net gas or net gas related items. And you know, you notice on net gas, uh I do keep an algo on net gas. It doesn’t really put up good enough numbers in order to make it part of the premium plan. But I do keep it and kind of check and see what it’s saying. And it He gave a cell signal on the 14th. Now got stopped out on Friday. But I am expecting some Downward movement here on that gas and I think that that that’s a a sign that it may be trying, trying to cut loose to something to the, to the Downside you’re next. Um I’m gonna jump right to industrial metals. Just remember on C. C. J. I’m a little worried that this pullback is going to take us through mid year. Um On a lot of these items including you are a the uranium stock. So be uh if you’re hugely in profit on on C. C. J. Um I’m not considered taking profit of this juncture and looking to buy back mid year um C. C. J. B. The uranium stock. So now moving to copper.
No massive changes on copper. Um Yeah, I’m looking for to put two for a pullback through mid year. Um notice that the um our site has moved Down out of overbought territory. So so we’re bringing in a pink stripe last time a couple of times we saw pink stripes, One was here, one was here. Um so looking for that pullback on copper Next um Down through approximately June 19 according to Hurst. Uh the FSc cycle program is talking about more, more early May is all Looking for a pull back to the way for one lesser degree. So that would be a 283-45. And then at that point I think we have much some strong upward movement in copper again, but it’s looking uh week after some extreme overbought readings. Um and I’m it’s been difficult to call the top on this one has been very relentless to the upside, but um there’s definitely some evidence uh coming especially from the U. S. Dollar index, that it’s unlikely that copper’s moved about as high as it can go for now, eventually moved much higher, but probably going to get that same corrective pullback that I’ve been talking about the entire webinar Down through mid year on copper. It’s it’s flirting with moving low enough on the daily chart to move below and close below the A T R A T E R volatility stop, Which is at 3:57. So if we get a close below 3,57, probably have a change of trend from up to Down. Uh huh uh notably the last to buy signals on copper have been ignored by my album The Coppers, another one where I keep it al gore running, but I don’t make it part of the premium plan because it didn’t bring in enough profit. Waiting percentage isn’t good enough, but that it does bring in profit, you know, just the main problem with it is the winning percentage is awful on it. Um and I can’t seem to get it to improve and still retain its profitability, but It has a filtering system in it and that is that if the gets above 88 on copper that it will refuse to take in a new long signal. And twice in the last couple of weeks. Well since this one was on December 18 and this my signal was on Jan five and the Algo refused to take both of those by signals because the sea was over 88 and now it’s really looking rather weak. Um We have a pink stripe. Yeah. And so I think they all goes warning us that hey this the very little upside left at this juncture needs needs a pullback before it can get back into raging upside mode. The C recently as high as 92 on copper commercials are short. Large specks are heavily long platinum changes count on platinum a little bit and I think it makes some good sense to do this. The thing about platinum is the upward movement has been so, so choppy and overlapping in platinum. I mean it had a nice little giddy up from the, from the, from the low Down here, it’s been very choppy and overlapping. So here’s the new count on platinum on a day chart 12 34 and then an ending expanding diagonal for way 5 1 two, three 45 So I was counting the wave one top here because uh I was counting this as a triangle here but I decided to change that around. It kind of simplifies things and it also brings into light some larger Fibonacci targets that I think are interesting. So that top occurred on August seven and then we got a three wave Down structure for waving. I think a three wave up structure for way be and it has found resistance. Strong resistance right at where we’d be would be the normal 1.32 times the length of wave a blue of an expanded flat. So we would expect to see wave now To the Downside in five waves And I think we’ve already seen way one and 2 and it did friday was the beginning of a wave three to the Downside and platinum and that it’s going to move Down through late february. Probably more like March, sometimes March. That’s also where I’m expecting the U. S. Dollar to stop going up initially. You know the initial move up in the dollar. I think it’s going to end in March. But the correction in the U. S. Dollar, I think it’s going to last all the way to july. So here’s another one where um I’m thinking it it finishes this expanded flat Down here. Sure. Maybe back to 762. That would be a 50 retrace of this initial five web structure. And then we get a wave one and a two. And the wave to over here is where the U. S. Dollar stops. It’s wave two and your soul will be moving opposite. All right. And then big upside from there. Notice that on friday we have the end of overbought territory here put in. So I’m putting a pink stripe there to commemorate that. And that is on the friday candle. I think that’s the beginning of a larger Downward move. On the 240 minutes chart, there’s no doubt is it crossed over and moved below the adaptive moving average. We also have the end of uh, the overbought territory. We have an ADX cell signal on on the Friday candle. On daily chart. We have the six commercials. Six month look back heavily. Short commercials is percent of open interest heavily short Retailed traders as high as a 93 back here And still pretty high at 66. But working their way lower and I think this has got a lot lower to go before this correction is over palladium. I can’t get palladium to come in on senior trader on a ticker uh, late at night. But you know, because I’m expecting a pullback through mid year on so many items, um, I decided to get bearish on palladium here. And one of the reasons is the last time I did a Hurst on it. This was considered an 18 year cycle peak. And that was all the way back and March. Then we got the plummet in March and then this upward movement that I think looks corrective. So this could be just beginning to work into a Breakdown situation on palladium, to the Downside, precious metals, gold and silver.
Precious Metals (Gold & Silver):
So once again, the big concern here is, yeah, we’ve seen some pretty aggressive Downward movement here lately on these, how long is it going to last? And so hurst has been really great uh and it continues to not lead us astray on gold and it’s projecting it’s going to move Down through early february, the fsc cycle program Down through GM 25 and then a rebound through um april May timeframe. The big question to me is can you put in that that enormous fifth way right there? Or is it going to move up into april May in in a small way and then finish its way for in approximately july with a deeper way for before it moves higher. And that is definite potential as being the way that this works, that it may not be able to get into this screaming move to the upside yet, that it needs to finish this way for maybe in july. And then it’s possible that I’m not bullish enough on gold after july, it’s highly possible that I’m not bullish enough done gold from the mid year low because the projected plunge in U. S. Dollars. So great at that point, I mean, you know, we need some kind of ability to get some kind of serious big big rally going from there, but for now this is um and here’s another way to look at it as an end of way for here, I’m going to get rid of that. I was tempting to put a potential super bearish count on here and I just don’t think it holds water, you know, 1212 very bearish, I just don’t think it holds water. Um And and so I think and the reason is because the Downward movement since early august I think clearly corrective, it’s clearly corrected both to the upside and the Downside. So abc for W Abc for X. Abc for Y. Abc for X, finishing an A. And B. C. For A Z. And that could be the end of Wave for but here’s another idea, maybe we get a triple zigzag and all and that finishes wave A of a way forward that ends over in july. So it triples the exact for a a nice rally, not a rally to new all time highs probably, but a nice rally For way be up into May 7 to May June time frame. Then the move Down into July, this would probably be May and then then the big move up so it could be the way forward is really going to be a long wait all the way to july um doesn’t mean it can’t be treated and so I’m looking for basically the abc Down and it’s unfinished to create the end of this part of the pattern. And so that means that if we’re getting an abc Down from this high here In January, early January January six approx. Yeah come on. Mhm. Mhm. It looks like it’s unfinished Impulse 1 2 3. I’m going to call that a triangle and then thrust out of the triangle now for A 5th wave Down. So good target would be 1770. Then look for a rebound back to the way for one lesser degree in 1856. And then the c. wave Down to 1672. Mhm. And that would be the end of a triples, exact the question is is that all the way for or is that with wave A within a longer lasting sideways way for those I think are the best alternatives. Either way, there should be a nice bounce out of this low in this low, right here, should come in about the same time as we see the end of some sort of short term pattern to the upside in the U. S. Dollar. So we’ll be watching very carefully for the timing on that over the coming weeks. Um definitely bearishh the algo given new cell signal on friday. Um You know the C. Really didn’t get that rich on on the on gold at this high, It’s only a 68. However it did on silver. Got up I think around 90 on silver. Too high. Too high on silver. So I’m also looking for that pullback to continue uh in silver. And this would also be away Z of a triple zigzag Down into february. Early february. Notice that it I’ve got the potential that this way be would end more like and so over in mid year. And then we get a really big rally Challenger the 2011 High and Silver By the time we get to 2022, something like that late, late 2021. Mhm. So looking for the finish of an abc s exact now uh in silver, Down into february, it’s the 240 minutes chart 1234 Looks like we’re getting the fifth wave Down now. Good target for the end of the 5th wave would be 23 68. Don’t look for a pullback back to the way four of one lesser degree at 25 99. And then on lower With the target Down here of 1935 sometime in february. So there’s the short term, the intraday chart On silver 240 minutes. No question. We were embarrassed situation on silver at this juncture. Um, even on the daily chart looking still further looking for more Downside uh, sentiment. You know, there’s that 90 on DC on silver that that happened one day before the peak on January five. So there was a very, very high number on silver. Last time we had a number Like that was back here in 93 on 86 So some really amazing blow off. Hi did see numbers when it was screaming. They’re into that early august hi, a lot of sideways chops and saying. But um, looking more barest now, especially getting a 90 dsc without getting a new high above the early august high um, onto um, currencies to finish up. Mm hmm.
Currencies and Cryptos:
No, really big changes on the currencies from Wednesday or even sunday last week. So I think I can flash through these. I did go through and try to get a little bit more exacting on what’s going to happen over the next few months as far as what some Hurst dates are. So we’ll start with the U. S. Dollar index. The index and um, You know, in hindsight is 2020. But this move Down well, it’s been happening in five waves has basically moved back to support, very close to it, Very close to support right there. Not quite 2 88 and a quarter, but very close. Yeah. And it’s done it in five waves and it’s pretty likely Down to a bottom which got enough upward movement here that, that looks like a trend change. You know, we even have a bullish divergence on a weekly chart. Uh going into that what low that you would expect in a in 1/5 wave that you would get some divergence is and there’s divergence is showing on the daily chart as well. So I think this is bottomed, It’s very likely an 18 month cycle. Petroff, we’re gonna move up Corrective Lee in a way of two, I’ve got the way to right now drawn where it only moves back to the way four of one lesser degree could it couldn’t advance further than that easily. You know, the point said, most wave two’s retrace between 50 and 61.8%,, and of course they can move higher than that and sudden validated way to invalidate until it moves all the way to new new highs above the March high, which is unlikely uh after after a pretty clear five wave Down structure Down uh, with all the subdivisions in place. So um hurst is expecting this initial wave right now to move up through March 13 and that that’s so mid March and the FSc single program also through mid March, March 14. So I like that, that we have some agreement there on the two cycles programs for a continued move to upside, very likely corrective. But I’ve got it as a potential abc, but through mid March, so that would be the earliest this means risk off through mid March initially would be the earliest person might think about playing, playing something going the other direction. You know, more of a risk on move or gold up, silver, up, move, you know, I think it’s going to likely going to be mid March. So here we are in mid January, that’s a couple of months. Um and you can see on the 240 minutes chart that that really strong moved to new highs that finished off the week last week. Really set the tone for that, that the recent low. And um the U. S. Dollar index is probably Probably finished and probably in 18 months cycle trough. You know, we haven’t seen a green box in a while on the daily trend falling template, but we’ve got one now and it’s well above the volatility stop and it closed well above the adaptive moving average. This is bullish as far as trend following. And the sentiment spread was bullish at that bottom as well. We’ll get a dsc in the U. S. Dollar index as low as a nine on december 17 commercials all of a sudden jumping out bullish. Large specks can expecting uh further Downside. Uh They really, I think you’ve gotten caught on the wrong side of this trade that they had a major trend change. Uh I saw an article recently about hedge funds were just shorting the living p widen out of uh out of the dollar. And I think they’re going to get caught on the wrong side of the trade being. That’s and this is the problem with this is the what we’re going to see with this. U. S. Dollar rally is a lot of it is going to be short covering. Yeah. I think we’re just getting to the point of recognition that the U. S. Dollars short the huge positions short the U. S. Dollar going to have to be unwound. Did see on the U. S. Dollar index, we probably have to go all the way back to uh the last time we got a pink stripe on uh on the U. S. Dollar index Was a 93. And that was a dis high right here. So the U. S. Dollar index can can it can get up into some lofty numbers, right? And um it’s possible that it can work itself into those kind of numbers Because remember that wave 2s um by the time you get to in a wave to uh the sentiment typically has flipped. And um everyone believes that wave to is is the new trend. What’s happening in a way to is the new trend. But by the end of Wave two and you get some cinnamon streams typical at the end of Wave twos as well. Now that would be probably in a more on a deeper wave too. Maybe a deeper wave to than just to move back to the way for one lesser degree. But that is typical behavior in a way to by the end of the way to your getting into some cinnamon extremes. Um Usd Jpy. Looking for a move up on Usd Jpy. That’ll take us all the way to july and notice it’s the expectation here is the same on both the hearse and the FFC cycles. Is that this initial leg to the upside last all the way into mid March. So we have some agreement here to what I showed you on the U. S. Dollar index. Canadian dollar. Um I expect. We’ll see you move back up through july on the Canadian dollar. And hurst thinks that this initial move to the upside on the Canadian dollar is going to take us into guess what March. March. Now I have left open the possibility that this pair has one more low. And the reason is because I think the U. S. Dollar has one more little small degree fifth wave to the upside. So I’m leaving open the possibility that this hasn’t quite bottomed yet Maybe and it might not have to get Down this law but maybe it’s a 123 and now it’s in a in a triangle for way for and has one more leg Down. So um of all of the currency pairs, this would be the one that I’m the least confident that it has put in Its ultimate bottom tick on this 5th wave Down. And the reason is because I can’t I’m not able to count enough subdivisions, the upside on oil for oil to talk. We’re getting close but still need 1/5 wave, the small degree 5th wave to the upside um on the Canadian dollar whenever the DSS is above 70 for you know the uh they all go well will not chase it. And so it skipped its last by signal on thursday of last week. And that’s a good thing. It did because it immediately would have been stopped out here. So it’s the dc awfully rich. Uh I was up to an 81 on Thursday on the Canadian dollar. Um And you know the algo based on back testing suggesting that there is no use chasing this thing any higher. Even if it does find employ a little higher, it doesn’t look like the alga is going to try to chase it. Um Yeah, recently got an 81 notice the commercials are short, the Canadian dollar large specks heavily along six months. Look back commercials generally pretty short. So it’s a the spread is definitely on the bears side. Looking for a pullback on Canadian dollar, like like very likely the last few mid year now out for the Euro pound and on C Uh huh. Start with Ozzy. Um I think we’ve got a really clean find wave up structure on the on see let me see here, You notice on on this particular wave one they called the in the blue book and the book another and also going back into the are in Elliot’s writings. Wave ones were called the professionals. Wave that only the professionals really were likely to be involved Um with wave ones and that it wasn’t until the wave three that the mob gets in and really is in agreement that you have a massive trend change now this particular wave one has been pretty aggressive but notice there was no way forward to really one Lesser degree to move back to depending on how you count it. I suppose some people might be calling that to the end of a way for and it’s been reaching toward that level. But um wave ones are can be very difficult because sometimes they’re low low basing affairs and other times they’re more aggressive moves to the upside this would have to be pretty aggressive. So up from the low in March 12123434 five. You know we’re getting some big divergence is here at the end of this fifth way we have the highest of the high of the R. C. At the wave three within five and then the divergence into the five of five. This is pretty likely to be the top even though Wait five only was .382 times and that travel to one through 3. A little bit weak. Although it had a very long wave three in it. So if it’s wave three eats up a lot of the power of the move. Sometimes you don’t get as long as a wave five and that appears to be the case here. So I’m looking for a pullback on all the hurst thinks all the way to august, notice I’ve drawn it where it doesn’t take that long. I I do expect it’s probably going to be a zigzag. Um The sentiment is so rich here that I think it’s um probably get a sharp sharp, the sharpest possible pull back and there would be a zigzag in the FSC cycle program is various all the way to april 14. But notice I’ve drawn it through mid March, imagine the matches uh kind of what I think is going to happen in several other currencies. Uh So there is nausea. I’m looking for a pullback in the mid March next Probably in five waves for waving. Um and the overbought territory has ended with the divergence and I put the pink stripe it there and I think that’s pretty important. Pink stripe at the end of a fairly extended period of being overbought. You can see when, when they once again pointing out where they’re overbought areas and oversold areas end can produce some awesome signals of trend change. Mhm. Yeah, commercials as a percent of open interest, heavily short DC recently a 90. So once again, the spread is pretty bearish Euro usd. I think there’s a very good chance that we have finished five waves up from the March low in the Euro and we’re going to get a multi month pull back probably to the way four of one lesser degree, maybe a bit deeper than that. I think it will be a zigzag. And it started rather aggressively for any aggressive moves Down on the Euro so far as a matter of fact, when I get into intraday chart that looks like a 12 and it’s already in wave three to the Downside, it’s possible it tries to pull up, pull back up and give a, you know, Expanded flat for wave two. But frankly that Downward movement is a little too big to expect it to be part of an expanded flat where wave to green wouldn’t be over yet. So there’s a decent chance it’s already in Wave three Green to the Downside on this move and just goes to show when the, when the sentiment is extreme, the reversal when it finally kicks in after the cinema has remained extreme for extended period of time. Can can create some violent, you know, having to cover positions, etcetera, etcetera. But yeah, very bearish. Uh and we’re well underway, you know, on the daily trend. Sharp got a couple of Down signals here now it’s really extending now below the A tr volatility stop and the am a adaptive moving average on the daily chart on the trend following. So, uh, this looks bearish and could have Downside continuation written all over. It probably does, even though it’s already starting to be on short term charts to show a bit of oversold Dzi recently as high as the 92 here, pound dollar. I think we’ve also seen the top and the pound dollar likely seen the end of this ending diagonals, possibly in truncation. I had mentioned that last week. Um, and looking to the Downside now and it topped right in the the winDow date winDow uh, suggested by cycle analysis from two different sources. And according to Hurst Next 40 weeks, cycle trough is due in mid to late March. So looking to the Downside here into let’s say mid March, next on the pound dollar definitely don’t sell. Sitting on the 240 minutes chart will show the Shefi real quick swiss frank in Bitcoin. Um and I’m also, it does appear that the kiwi has topped and the thrust out of the triangle. The kiwi is finished and it is reversing now and I would expect the entirety of the thrust of the triangle to be reversed over the next several months, let’s say through mid year, back to the way for one lesser degree and a zigzag, there will be Down to 65 90. And we also got into overbought territory here recently and have now on, on a weekly chart, have exited overbought territory and then it’s on, on last week’s candles Weekly chart swiss franc I think has finished a five way structure to the Downside. I think it was a leading expanding diagonals, expanding diagonals are deeply retraced. And so we could get a solid bounce back here on the on the U. S. Dollar against the swiss franc all the way through mid year. And um initially this initial move to the upside according to her. So it’s going to take us up into mid March. Same thing here. Um We also had a nice little bullish divergence uh into that small degree fifth wave uh low there and I think that bottom is in and then finally moving to Cryptos and take a quick peek at Bitcoin because we’re getting a reversal in the U. S. Dollar and likely reversal in stocks. I think there’s a pretty good chance we’re going to see a reversal at this time on Bitcoin. Um Bitcoin slightly overshot a strong cluster of Fibonacci targets I had for the end of the B wave and um um the Hurst is bearish Down into late february. We wouldn’t be surprised if that gets into March. This is such been such a mania move. It’s really showing some weakness now and I’ll turn on the streaming, see what’s happened here on the weekend so far. Pretty sure it’s given us a bit of Downward movements over the weekend so far and the answer is yes. A bit of Down movement. The big picture on Bitcoin is that the entire rally since december of A. And 2020 18 is a three wave way. Be topping very near targets. Um Had for it slide over suit and looking for a five wave Down structure. Next way be of an expanded flat.
Hey, thanks for your subscriptions. Yeah, I really appreciate it. Um 2020 was a tough year. I’m looking forward to 2021 being good year. Um so far so good on the wave counts and um, I hope my work is beneficial to you uh here in the U. S. We have a holiday tomorrow, martin Luther King Day and so the NYC is closed, probably nothing shaken, but the leaves on the trees tomorrow. Um tonight and tomorrow. So expect the fireworks to start up again on Tuesday. Have a great rest of your weekend and we’ll see you soon. Bye bye.
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