Investing Using Elliott Wave
Elliott Wave Plus | Weekly “counts” Webinar Text
January 24, 2021
(This text was auto-transcribed by a software utility)
Good morning, good afternoon, good evening wherever you may be. This is Sid from Elliott Wave Plus and this is the January 24 of 2021 edition of my weekly counts webinar. Where you go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stock markets, commodities currencies and bonds, Hurst cycle analysis as well as the number of other forms of technical analysis will also be considered before we get started. Like for you to be aware of my disclaimer, it is at my website Elliott Wave Plus dot com. So you go there scroll down to any page, the bottom of any page and click on terms of service disclaimer and there it is there all the time. Please read it and fall. Uh if I would summarize it in one sentence it would be, there is risk of loss and all trading.
S&P-500 (SPX ES) & Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA YM):
Let’s get straight away to the wave counting, I will mention um just last week I made a guest appearance at the Elliott wave hub and uh Mhm The recording of my portion, that’s about 45 minutes, is that my YouTube channel? So please, if you haven’t seen yet, please go there and view that. Uh huh And uh that one was particularly well liked, so it’s uh already in just one day, two days now, 420 views. 21 likes, not bad. Um so there was some stuff I talked about in there and turn on the nick says Sid with odd fire. Yeah, I guess I did get a little animated maybe, but it was fun and the whole idea, I’m gonna turn off the video itself here. The whole idea was two compare and contrast the wave counts right now and in the past from two famous wave counters. One is uh robert Prechter and the other the other one is um um peter good burn of wave track and uh went over some long term um charts and some history on that. And I was looking at there was a lot of people like to poo poo all over Prechter because he’s remain bearish for some extended period of time. But I I continued to look into um why he made some calls that he made. And I’m and I think it’s kind of make a really interesting discussion right here at the beginning before we start counting waves. But I did mention in the webinar 1997, I believe it was he wrote a book called at the Crest of the Tidal Wave. Okay. and uh I drew this channel around the extremes of two and 4 And one in 3 put a parallel copy through one and 3. And at that time the market was throwing over was giving the appearance if you didn’t know what was going to happen in the future of throwing over that channel, which it often will do and extended fifth way. And I also, I had this target already on my charts. Um, and that is uh, 41,020 that I showed in, in that, um, uh, women are in the presentation. And that is that, um, where, where the stock market would um, add An extension of 1.618 off the top of the wave are off at the bottom of the wave four in 1974. So from 1932 1234. So I measured from this point To this point and expand that by 1.6.8, which would be just an a kind of a ridiculous and extremely unusual target for for an extended fifth way. And I got to thinking what would be a a more normal target for an extended fifth wave. So I just took that femininity that already had and look for where way five would be equal to then that traveled of zero through four. And I just simply click that box and there’s that that target 8000 on the Dow. And that’s about what the dow was when he wrote that book. So that would have been a normal um target form an extended 5th wave in teal. Uh And so yeah, I get it. I get why he wrote the book the and you can even see maybe a 1234 maybe not a complete fifth wave up here, but it looked like he was probably about finished. So um yeah, but that’s not what was happening, you know? And once that target was overshot by a fair amount, it was good burn. Who said, well, we’ve basically, we’ve overshot this extended target. Um, We’re going to have to look at the next target and the next target, you know, when the downs at 8000 and the next target is 41,000, it takes a lot of guts To say, it looks like we’re going to go to the next target, which is 41 k on the dow. But um, that sure looks like that was the proper call at the time and in, in retrospect. So I will take that off now because it really doesn’t mean much of anything except for that discussion for that particular discussion. But, um, takes a lot of guts to call for, uh, this kind of extended target. But that sure looks like what we’re going for here. And so up from the 1970 for low 12 three in Burgundy is primary degree away for here. And then a good way of five target would be where Burgundy Wave five was equal to the net travel to 123 1974. Low Times .618. That’s from about 42 K. See, so that I think there’s a bunch of several targets right up there that are clustered together, even a Black Wave five target. Uh and when we’re looking at the black or intermediate degree targets up from the 2009, low 12 three in January 2018 4 through March of last year. And then a good target, there would be 43, 6 52. So there’s a bunch of targets up higher between Basically 41,043,600. There’s a cluster of three targets of each one of the cycle degree, primary degree and intermediate degree. Pretty strong cluster there. So that seems like that’s probably where we’re headed. Um And as we move into the daily chart um we have continued to, you know, the market really isn’t gaining much ground the last three weeks, but it isn’t giving up much either. And so this count is still alive and well of of five waves up from the March low having ended in early September and and then a three wave down for wave A and a fairly and extended way be of of an eventual expanded flat down through mid year and then it’s up up and away in the inflation scenario. Um Wouldn’t be surprised if we it takes that long for them to come up with some kind of infrastructure uh agreement, There’s a lot of fighting right now and whether or not they can afford to spend that money but I think what’s going to happen is Mhm. They’re not they’re not going to be able to agree on infrastructure deal right now it’s going to take several months and um by the time we get a 20 correction, they’ll all get real busy on this infrastructure bill and get something passed, but it’s probably going to take that kind of move in order to get them to come together and come to come up with something and when they do they’re going to be printing many trillions of dollars and uh that will light the inflationary fire for the rest of this Granted to finish this grand supercycle wave three Up in probably 2023 hurst is saying on almost everything her says That it’s gonna be your mid to late 20-22. I just wouldn’t be surprised it takes a bit longer than that. Mhm. So um and then and that’s good burns count. Um And Predators County is know that this isn’t um this is all of the 5th wave the black 5th wave now. Uh And his main reason for calling that I think is that the sentiment is extremely extremely Bullish. one sided bullish right now. Mhm. That’s one reason. And then he’s got been working with some long term Fibonacci um numbers that are pointing to a 2021 as the likely the top and those are based on Fibonacci time. And I got to tell you this Fibonacci time is uh is a duration is a tough one. I’ve seen a lot of people spend a lot of time and energy on on Fibonacci time and it’s uh I’ve rarely seen at work. And so um uh my main count is that we’ve got this one, they’re gonna go ahead and and print, I mean we’re already bankrupt. What’s going to stop them from printing I guess to try to keep this thing propped up for a bit longer? It’s incredible how much they have printed And they did friend in the year 2020. uh What percentage is something like uh see if I still have that slide, I don’t Um something like 20 of the US. dollars that are currently in circulation were printed in the year 2020 and they were printed as a result of this plunge. So it just goes to show that it doesn’t matter which party is in there. Uh If if if there’s a big enough dip they’re going to print and they’re probably going to do it again. As if there’s no backlash to doing it, but and that probably is going to propel us on up to these super blow off top Levels up above 40,000 on the Dow. So I’m still looking for a sea wave down next work off some of this froth, that is still highly extreme in many measures. Um Not each and every measure is uh as frothy as what many of the um bears want to want to throw out there, but it is, it is super rich in a number of measures enough to expect to pull back. So on the dow jones, industrial average is thinking pull back through august. Um there’s, there’s a range of dates down here between june in august For this 18 month cycle trough. And the reason there’s so much agreement in all the items is because of this low in March, very large cycle trough. You move approximately 18 months forward from March And you get to april September. But um these these um 18-month troughs have generally been coming in early when the when the price starts puking down into the trough, there’s there’s the Fed or the treasury ready with trains of dollars to prop this thing up some more. They’re probably gonna do it once or twice more. Um And um and so these these troughs have been forming early so you can see this one here was in december Of 2018 and this was just in March. Uh That’d be what 16 months between these two. And so if you move forward 16 months from March you get july and I’m saying I’m getting a lot of agreement on Hurst that you know that that that trough is gonna occur probably in july. But I wouldn’t be surprised, would not be surprised if they get back into panic printing mode. And it and it forms more like in june here. Mhm. So um we still dealing with how to you know a lot of Allah petitions I think are struggling with. Um um Yeah Greg I have looked at that count. Greg of blue one peaking now that the biggest problem I have with the account is counting five waves up from this low Um on on October 30. And so I think this price sanction is Is an ending pattern. It’s probably a diagonal. It’s a very very rough one and it’s kind of hard to figure using traditional diagonal but it’s hard to apply any other labelling. There was one gentleman presenter that was trying to call this a one two in three and man that’s a stretch, that’s a big stretching three here and then. I don’t I don’t know how maybe Up to here, 3, 2 here, four here, 5. He was also expecting, you know that even if this, even if this was the end of five waves up for wave one, they’re still going to be a way of two. So honestly it doesn’t make a lot of difference, but it’s this price action right here. That is the reason why I’m sticking with this count, even though it’s slightly overshot Where Pink B is equal to Pink eight times 1.3 82. And um, you know, we had these wave bees lately have been pretty extreme. We got to overthrow back here in January and February of 2020 where the way be was stubbornly trying to stay up and and continue higher past the most normal target for webby. And I think that’s probably what we’re getting right here now. And so there’s the window based on Hurst and based on the fsc cycle program, the window for a top, We’re right in the middle of that window now and then there’s a pretty wide window down here for a bottom. Notice that it stretches all the way from made to august, so just kind of taking the middle ground, they’re looking for a bottom and probably in june maybe late june here looking for a five wave structure down. Now, if this was the end of five waves up from the March Low, then this would not be a five wave structure down. It would be a corrective abc. So we’ll see how that works out. Still would look for a move back even if that count was correct. Would look for move back to the way for one lesser degree at a very minimum, that’d be 26,001 43. But my account um I’m looking for, you know, a modest .8.38 to retrace of of of wave One blue. That would be through the September early September high and also a .382 expansion off of the bottom of pink a to finish pink c and 25. and So that gets us down, you know, between 24, 3 24 4 And 25,000 on the Dale. And so that’s still my preferred count. No big change there. Um You’ll notice that Hurst is I’ve added a couple of extra additional dates. That hurts his projecting on the way down. Um before warned though on Hurst, Hurst generally divides all the cycles in 2s. And so it almost in almost every five wave structure that ever happens, it Hurst starts out with it projecting it as being, you know, a zigzag. And so I’m taking these with a grain of salt. Um and just figuring on, I’m looking at a five wave structure down and I noticed I’m labeling that the top tick is likely in, Here’s the 240 minute chart, there’s the super choppy overlapping price action. I can count it one other way besides the diagonal still is an abc to the upside. So in A. And then it W. X, Y X. Z. For the end of a B. Wave here and then five wave of structure 12345 And this structure up from the January 15 low on an Intraday chart also counts as a five way structure complete. And now last week, late in the week, especially on thursday and on at the close on friday saw some weakness there. And so I think that’s the beginning of the move down. Um here’s some additional her states that I’ve taken from some smaller squid lease on the on the on the composite line. Uh down through february seven, Rebound through February 17 and then continue on down in a five wave structure Notice on labeling that that is the Green one in green too. So there’s uh the dale. Um We did end the week with a um 80 x. Cell signal in the final candle. But we’ve gotten several of those recently as prices found a way to grind higher in this, what I believe is a diagonal. Um and then on the 240 minute chart, we’re gonna a nice exit signal On the 21st on Thursday of this long. That on using trend following technique. And I was also in a brown box there. Yeah. And and then two candles later, A cell signal still in a pink box. So this, this does have the look. This could could be the beginning of the 20% correction. Um, the algo unfortunately took a buy signal on thursday And any movement below 30,007 38. It’s gonna get stopped out. And here’s the interesting thing about about the Argo is when, when the, but now when the computer the am A line is green. It will only take longs, it will only take long signals. So I’ve got a real nice winter back here. But then there was a loser small winter, small lizard. It refused and it never filled this order because it didn’t pull back enough and then a really small winter here. So it’s going as it has been shopping higher in this diagonal. It’s going through a series kind of alternating between small winters and small losers as you would expect. And uh I predicted this one is going to be a loser, right? Um Don’t forget to look on as many charts as I can show when you have a some sort of dark pink or red color in this uh indicator, the money flow index versus are as high the windows long lasting zones of overbought end. I put in a pink stripe and same thing on the on the green stripe for the bullishness and um those typically work really well. The only thing is if you’re in a trending move, you you might get several um it might stay in overbought terry in in and out of overbought territory until it’s finally done. Still very handy, very handy um um indicator that is on many of the charts that I’m showing moving forward. Um So as we move into the S and P. Kind of same thing and for those of you that don’t want to believe that we could possibly see some a super big correction of the Like a 90 Sort of correction after the grand supercycle wave three top. You know remember that I um have been considering calling this um for a long time in my main count just teal way one within a supercycle wave five continue higher. Uh And so um I’ll you know, we get a couple of years where I can maybe work that count back into not being so deadly, bearish after the next 23 years. Uh Would so keep that in mind that that was my account before but uh and I may return to it at some point given depending on how things work out here. So the same thing on the S. And P. Say I’m counting five ways up, complete in early September and in the case of the S. And P. Three waves down from an A. Here And then a three wave up for W. Three way down for X. And I still think this counts best is a three wave structure. It had the initial blast up that’s up from the October 30 low the initial blast and then a little bit of sideways that in the S. P. I’m calling a triangle. Then in this in this case I’m calling this an expanding ending diagonal that has just continued to find a way two and chop just a little bit higher. Um The high now is on thursday on the S. And P. I think the high on the dow was actually on, yeah it’s also on thursday. So uh Yes, grand supercycle wave three. Um here’s the reason the grand supercycle wave three has got my primary account right now and that and that is that uh that counts been working. It’s been working, it’s been working well and um so we’ve got couple of years for that rise. But yes it’s still my main count. You know there’s there’s one thing about about it that makes a lot of sense to me and and that is um I’ve always felt like there was going to be a day of reckoning on all of this printing and all this debt that would eventually uh be extremely destructive. And so this um council kind of shows the importance of maybe getting prepared just in case for for that to be the case. Um In probably 2023. Okay. Uh might have to dust off your old, conquered the crash books and revisit them. But on the es contract, here’s a closer look at this, this view to the upside, you know counting this is an expanding diagonal. Uh This last new high is awfully hard to explain but anyone 234 that’s all the same and I’m counting this as an A. But I’m counting all of this as a running flat now for way be. And then this does look like a five wave structure up on the ES two that high on Thursday. And then uh the movement down on a let’s let’s move into like a 30 minute chart. Um 12 12345 for 34 five. I mean they can they can be counted as a five wave structure I believe. Uh the 345 has kind of been hurry up mode and this can count I think pretty well this um looks like a five wave of structure 12345 through this time. So this could be there could be in A. And A. B. And A. C. So that could be all all she wrote on that on that. Uh And it was certainly a deep enough pull back um to figure that that might be all for way too. Yeah it was more than a .618 certainly deep enough. So uh I’m counting this as a one and a two short term cow. Yeah. Um I think you know this this chop it would be hard to explain. You know I suppose it could make one more slight new high as a 12345. One more slight new high is possible but I think it’s starting to get its growing growingly unlikely. Let’s see what else I have here for you. Yeah we see the brown box, the exit signal that came in on thursday sell signal just a couple days later in a pink box. Um Yeah on the S. And P. Very interesting. It did get a bicycle on Jan 20. However this new system looks for a pullback of Certain amount five points from the opening price of the following candle in order to enter on a long signal if the candle was in order unusually long or above average length. This signal candle and that’s designated by this little circle here and it pulled back to the to within the bid and the ask of taking the long signal it didn’t take it and therefore that that by signal is void on the on the S. And P. It has to fill during the next daily candle. So it has the has to pull back enough in the very next candle in order to take to go long on that kind of bicycle. And it didn’t came within one tick pulling back enough, but it didn’t and so it is flat and it’s so that by signal is void. Mhm. Look at the the DSC here kind of working its way lower. You know, the C stayed elevated state elevated during this entire grinding move up. But it finally has kind of a breakdown. Look to it. So we’ll see that could be the beginning of this. Just a correction, but 20% correction. Next in the stock market. Uh Moving on.
NASDAQ (NDX NQ), Russell 2000 (RTY), and Semiconductor Index (SOX):
Yeah, move to the NASDAQ next. Um Really no change uh looking for and notice the composite line is bearish from about now down into july. And I’ve so I’ve drawn it Bottoming in that 18 minutes cycle trough in more like June got a couple of big divergence is here showing up at this high and here’s the daily chart. Now. In the case of the NASDAQ, it had been falling short of reaching where way be pink would be equal to wave a pink times a normal 1.382. But it finally got there, got there on Wednesday last week, thursday was high and uh it has reached both of my Fibonacci targets now, the best Fibonacci targets for for an interim high 18 month cycle peak. And, and then it moved down into the next 18 month cycle trough somewhere in june july time frame in five waves. Got a target zone around 9800 there for the NASDAQ. So here’s that, here’s that Pink be target. I had it finally got up there and hit it and notice on this 240 minute chart, we spent some time in overbought territory on this money flow versus Rs I Indicator. But um on friday you can see it ended and uh and and the indicators dropped out of overbought territory. So that might be a real early sign here of the top on the NASDAQ as well. So looking for downward movement, The 240 minute 80 X. Plus chart that premiums plants subscribers get every night. Uh We got the brown box. That means the trend is overextended. Then we gotta walter prasert inside the brand box. So he was a real nice by signal in a real nice egg. This signal. Mhm. And we have we have the end of the overbought zone right there. Um The NASDAQ is currently on a buy and it’s it’s got enough um altitude on this last move up that I think it’s likely to be able to close out in profit. Uh And the algoma recommend doing so when the walter breast ordinates moving average crossover and you can see that there could be just a day away depending on how much downward movement we get. Um intel core, how big it is. Um And how quick uh sentiment on the NASDAQ. Pretty pretty bearish. The the commercials is uh six month look back heavily short. Um and the sea was recently in 94 and then in 92. So that which would there was conditions are in place for deeper pull back. Uh Let’s see here, Russell, by the way, there was 3 3-1 reverse split I believe on well, some of the um labored CTF. So we show for premium plan subscribers every night, but now that the charts trade navigator, it takes them a day to get those Baptists are, get the back pricing adjusted. And so we have a normal looking chart again on those uh no by signals yet on any of these E. T. F. S. That for going short. But you know we keep those on the nightly report on on the NASDAQ and on the S. And P. And we’ve added the russell in. Um So now we have E. T. F. S. On ways to short the market with automated signals for premium plan members on the S. And P. The NASDAQ and the russell. Yeah. Um On the wrestle the council little different. This really looks like a it’s a three way of structure this there’s blob in the middle of the move up from March Low. Um And uh I think the best count on this is that the entire move up from March Low is a wave one but it’s it’s in three waves. And so it’s going to be wave one of an ending contracting diagonal In an ending contracting Diagonal Wave one is the longest of one, three and five, And then two has to be longer than four and then four has to move down into the price territory of wave one. And so whenever you get a really long three wave structure like that, it’s definitely something to look for. And I kind of like the idea that that might be what’s going on here. Um Yeah, so we’re in the in the cycle window depending on where they use Hurst or the FsC program, looking for an abc back to basically support. Um and you know, if you were going to count this as a regular five wave structure instead of three wave structure, you probably have a one and a two and a three and a four here. So I’m looking for a move back to the way four of one lesser degree. And even if that is the correct And then it’s back to 1432 on the Russell. By the time we get into june july junji lock. Yeah. Here’s the 60 minute Chart on the wrestle. Uh is that right? Yeah, 60 minutes. And um the reason I put it on 60 minutes so we could examine what’s going on in this last five wave structure And it looks like 12123434. And this looks like a perfectly good uh ending of away five here. But then after that we got one slight new or high, higher high. And so I think what’s going on is an ending diagonal within Wait five. Such a stubborn stubborn topping process. 12345 fifth waves of ending diagnose can truncate this hasn’t quite made it up as high as this. High did back here. There’s still a couple of fibonacci is up here that haven’t been hit yet on the Russells. I’m leaving open the possibility that the russell has a few more chicks. Um to absolutely complete um The five wave of structure right now. The hide all time behind the russell is back on Wednesday and so on. Most other items all time high occurred on thursday said the wrestle was lagging right there, but then late in the week on friday it gave one of the stronger pushes to the upside. Um The algo isn’t missing with this. It um you can see even though we’re at or very near all time highs, the algo is on a negative crossover on the walter. Brassard. And I, I think that the algo won’t give a cell signal on the wrestle until it closes on a daily basis below 21 09.3. That is when the Aga is likely to fire off sell signal. Yeah. The cinnamon on the wrestle all of a sudden jump back up. Just some kind of love affair with the small caps going on here. Uh It’s hard to figure. Um I’m just curious what the pE ratio is on the wrestle right now. Just curious someone look it up. Uh huh. Wall Street Journal I think puts those up. Uh That’s interesting. So here’s the Wall Street Journal um The russell, the pE ratio on the russell is negative. It’s negative on balance. Um All the all the companies in the russell are losing money. Yeah and the pE ratio in the NASDAQ and S. And P. R. 41 wow wow. That is just amazing. Not quite as rich on the on the dow jones but certainly rich historically. Uh huh. But the man that’s some blowout numbers but the russell pd gracious negative. Yes I think that the U. S. Dollars bottom tank um not against every it’s possible it hasn’t quite bottom against the the Canadian dollar but as far as the on most of my counts. Yeah with the five ways done that’s five ways down from the 2000 or the March of 2020. Hi I think are complete on the U. S. Dollar index and against the euro as well. Thank you. I think it’s pretty likely if it did you know I can see the possibility on the pattern of one slight lower lobes just slight on the on the Canadian dollar. And I also can see the possibility that the oil um or where the dollar, it hasn’t quite bottom against the Canadian dollar. And I’m still looking at the possibility the oil has one more new high to put in. And so it’s more about oil on that one. Mm. Yeah. And so that’s that, that is a long time thing. Uh huh. You did many don’t, I didn’t have many followers at the time, but I used before I had Elliott Wave predictions. I had a site called SIDS Charts. They it was that was the beginning of of it all. But that was my first blog. Mm Yeah. More more than 10 years ago. Yeah. Anyway, uh, let’s see showed the Russell. And so we on the nightly report, we’ve started adding the U. W. M. The two times Mellish Russell And the and the T. W. and the two times the Barrish Russell. And if you’re looking at shorting the russell, I think several of you are, you’ll be able to see this chart every night. I would look for the end of the dark green for one thing and then um probably not going to get a buy signal until um price closes above this. Am a it is currently at 17 46. So if we get a daily close above 17 46 on T. W. M, then it’s probably going to fire off a buy signal on T. W. M. And that would be a way to short the russell With two times leverage. They’re moving to popular stocks. Uh, no very few updates here. I do think the apple is now in a in a B. Wave. Apples in a B. Wave so ample is at an all time high and hers thinks it may not top until February 24. So, um, but you can see the way things are right now. If it were to top pretty quickly. We have double divergence here on the weekly chart on the Mac D. And so I think this is in a B. Wave to the upside. Um Not sure what kind of pattern we’re seeing to the upside on apple. Uh amazon. As long as long as the amazon doesn’t make anymore and highs above last week’s high. Last week’s high, it’s possible. It just finished the tribe Aris triangle in in the next move would be a thrust down out of that triangle. So we’ll see. But we can’t have any highs above 33 50.65. 33 50.65. Close the weeks, It closed the week at 32 92. Yeah Boeing I think is starting into a descent through mid year now. Disney um I think he’s topped and is going to give a fairly substantial descent into mid year. Disney is very much like the russell. I think it gave an abc to the upside here. Uh This this big wad in the middle of the move up from The march low kind of indicates that this could be wave one of an ending diagonal, same concept as the russell and each leg of a diagonal typically will retrace. Yes, anybody remember anybody remember the range that each leg of a diagonal? Well typical typically retrace according to the blue book. I know I’m you’d have to get even if you knew the answer. I’m not giving you very much time to type it in But it would be 66 2, 81 66- 81%. And so why did that that would be way down here? It’s possible but seems unlikely that it would go that deep given all of the emergency um printing that’s probably headed our way um Mid year. Mhm Facebook I think we’ll find a way to move down into mid year as well. Uh So far. Yeah it’s hard to say what’s going on and be tempting to label that as a triangle but with with more new highs ahead but we’ll just leave it like that really expecting to pull back through mid year on virtually everything. Google snuck up and made a new high but it’s still within parameter. All right. Of away five to end A diagonal that started all the way back on December 2018. Abc for one two of the diagonal, three of the diagonal, four of the diagonal. And actually we kind of needed an abc to finish the pattern and we got impossible throw over there so we’ll see. You know there’s not going to be much more upward movement than it would be allowable here on google if that wave count is going to stay good. Um Microsoft flirted last week with putting in a new high, didn’t do it and then pull back, wait. And so I’m calling, this is one and a. Two. I think we’re going to get a pretty good sized pull back through mid year on Microsoft, netflix shot up to new high and then left a fairly long wick there last week. So I’m calling this the triangle and the thrust of the triangle. I’m going to say I’m going to call it complete because I think this is all A B. Wave to the upside on netflix. So On Netflix, uh there was I think a very large degree high in mid 2018 followed by three waves down for an a. And then three waves up, Zigzag her way be that is now overshot but still hovering around the best target for B. Wave. And so there’s an A. And A. B. And then 12 three 45 Mhm. Tesla, I still think it’s flirting with a major very major top and we’ll get a pullback through mid year on Tesla, back to the way 41 lesser degree likely. So I think Tesla moves from 8 46 to 3 96 over the next several months. You see the size of the divergence on the RC down here. Yeah wal mart. I think the top is in it’s going to work its way lower through mid year, back to the way four of one lesser degree likely. And J. P. Morgan looks like it’s wanting to give up the ghost here after a kind of a blow off top move. Mhm. And Pfizer is amazingly weak. The daily chart, considering how busy they must be putting, putting out, you know, the emergency, huge amounts of of the shots and yet been pretty weak. Okay, let’s move on to the VIX.
Popular Stocks & VIX (FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL, TSLA, MSFT):
VIX um, is in the, toward the lower Bollinger band on daily chart. VIX, uh the low over the last few months actually, on the VIX was back still back on November 27 At 1951. And so the VIX is on definitely writing higher than it was um When it was flirting with, you know, 11, 10, 11, 12, um at the January and February highs of 2020. And so it’s, it’s kind of amazing that the VIX, here we are at all time highs. And so that’s a divergence. That is definitely a divergence where the VIX refuses to move down to the same kind of basing levels that it was been seeing frankly for years and years, You know, down around 10, 11, 12 is where he was, it would bottom and kind of hover around there while the market moved higher. But no, no, no, the base, it’s basing with a low of of around 20 and that kind of indicates that there there is some worry in the markets. Um Yeah, and I think this thing could take off at any time. You can look at the divergence on the R. S. E. Where we we’ve been getting new all time highs here recently. But the VIX is diverging, which it often will do uh like look at this low, right here, this was the mid January low of 2020. And then right here was the mid february low of 2020. And so we were getting a divergence right there. I’m at that lasted about a month, going into that february high. And this divergence has been going on for a couple of months. Yeah, coil that this could be a coiled spring. Mhm. The sea was recently as low as an eight on the VIX. On January eight. Notice where the commercials are positioned on the VIX, they’re long. The the large specks, which is the trend followers. Our short, heavily short that is about as wide As you’ll ever see that spread. It’s wider than it was in January or February of 2020, exceedingly widespread. Um This is bearish. Also the only six month look back commercials are heavily along the VIX and with the with the retail extremely short. So this this really is in perfect kind of perfect storm condition as far as the and has been for a little while. You know, the, the sentiment extremes are not good timing issues, but their warnings and the longer they last then the close yard to to hold situation finally capsizing. This is the 13 day exponential moving average of the advance decline ratio in the N. Y. S. E. And you can see that the I don’t think I’m not sure that January eight all time highest. Now, correct? I think we had all time high in the S. And P. On thursday. So that would be Jan 21. So there’s there’s it’s a divergence that we’ve seen many times at the all time high on this indicator where the peak was up inside this resistance zone and at the all time high, this indicator was below the resistance zone. It was unable to peek up in in this resistance zone and that’s happened over and over again. There’s the july Of 2019 All Time High. There’s the february of 2020 All Time High. Here’s the September two all time high. Each one of these is subsequently a new all time high. Uh huh. And looks like we’re getting again, once again a bearish setup. Um And then this this one is uh still pretty interesting to look at, look at how the 89 week simple moving average of the advanced cloning line on the S. And P. Has been uh falling and diverging hugely ever since that early September high. So this last push the upside really showing a huge divergence. Now of course this is a lagging indicator but still very interesting to see that much divergence on the indicator. Yeah. Which we should run a betting pool on how much, how much the next time you come up with a stimulus, how many trillions it is, Maybe I can come up with a small prize of some kind. Uh huh um, so here’s the, a lot of these counts. I’ve just gone to long term counts just to show you the general idea.
But on transports, this is now in transports. I’m counting a complete five wave up structure occurring here in January from the March Low. Look for that mid year, you know, wave to pull back and then on up and they And then we’ve got a really good femininity target up here where black wave five. So from the March 2003 low, there’s a black one. Black too black three. Black four. Really good target is 19 5 23. So it’s substantially higher than the 12 8 we’re at right now, but I think we’re gonna pull back all the way to 10,000 um, on, on the transports over the next few months. And it’s going to create a massive, you know, last year, you know, last chance buying opportunity, looking for a double, even even on the, the stodgy transports From the middle of this year. On through, let’s say late 2022, early 2023. Same thing with the dow jones, dow jones utilities, looking for a way to pull back through mid year and then the target is substantially higher. I’m going to say up around 1180. Mhm. And this is another Fibonacci That I’ve been using lately, lemon 88 that I that it’s pretty effective and you might start using it on your sim along charts if you can. Mhm. And that is up from the extreme of wave one. Look for wave and this was obviously a very long wave one up out of the 2000 too low. Can you imagine How many people had the 2000 and you know, the 2007 top in utilities or in this case kept going up through Early 2008 as a Wave one. Amazing. Um but anyway, 1, 2, 3 four down into March looking for that way of five, But in this case, because of the extreme distance away of one, looking for way five To be a .61.618 expansion Off the top of Wave one. So this would be a unit of one from here to hear. Take that times .618 and add that to the top of it. That’s the way you do that. X L E. So X L E. Um pretty toppy on the short term I think is going to pull back through late february next according to Hurst and I think actually is going to be one of the stronger items uh in the um for the next few months, I do expect that it will, After finishing a five wave of structure through mid april, it’ll pull back through mid july and then move on up for the next year and possibly two big big new highs. But um looking for that pullback next, this is mainly due to cycle analysis. Both the fsc cycle program and the hers are expecting a pullback down here and uh this seems to stop going up right at a pretty much a perfect Way be level. So after a 9th 5 wave up structure three waves down for an A. I’m gonna have to call this the way be even kind of looks like a five. It also looks like a potential double zigzag, A B C X A B C. Um and I think it’s the beginning of a pretty sizable pull back. I’ve got to pull him back all the way to the .618 retrace um of the original five wave up structure that started on october 29, October 30, october 29 notice the red zone has completed. That’s why I put this pink stripe there. So we’re, we’ve moved out of overbought territory. Okay On in this case the uh money flow in both the money flow and the arts. I were in overbought territory. Wave two is February 14. No february. Well I’m not always drawing everything to work perfectly with these with these date targets these day maintain so Yeah, hurt says down through February 27 it kind of looks better to me and you know, at that kind of angle right there. Read too read to you. Oh oh No that is that July 14 thank you maintain. Thank you for dad. Yeah, there’s your big by point. It’s in july in my opinion. Until then it might be a little hairy. Um No, on the algo we just just got a cell signal on thursday on Excel and uh I noticed that we have the ending end of of its overbought zone that just occurred 240 minute charts on these 240 minutes, 80 X charts and expose charts. We’re including in the for premium plan subscribers every night and we’re putting about a dozen of those out on the most popular items every night to assist in kind of timing these things. Um, No moving to KB I think A B. Has stopped going up for now is going to drop back through mid May according to Hurst. That’s the weekly count and then, and then it’s going to top More than 2022. So looking for a pretty sizable pull back on banking yet. And that probably means that yields have probably top for now. And um the as yields were moving higher on bonds, well, that was uh supposedly very beneficial to the bottom line of banking. And and we got a real pretty for five wave up structure, very likely finished. Very nice looking five wave up structure. Probably finished. And looking for a pullback. I’m showing a pretty deep pull back through May late May. Um maybe a .618 pullback of the entire five wave up structure here. So there’s a K. B. E. See if there’s any other Yeah, the algo just put in a cell signal on K. B. E. On thursday. We just ended overbought territory back on friday of last week. Mhm. Um On the daily trend chart, it’s coming down and flirting with the theoretical recommended stop loss on daily chart. That would be the at volatility stop indicator on daily chart. And on friday we got a ADX cell signal where the DMI minus crossed over above the DMI plus. And we also have price flirting with The adaptive moving average. So it has a general bearish look to it. I believe on the 240 minutes chart, we have a new pink zone. These pink pink zone would be and I am a system cell zone. The green boxes where an um a system by zone. Just those zones alone often can create some excellent trades. No change much on the marijuana stocks looking for that pullback. But really Looking for a 40 weeks. I called peaks. You know, her says in late february. Uh huh. Matter of fact, I’m gonna do this. Yeah, I think we’re nearing, you know about as high as, as the marijuana stocks are gonna go right now and they’ll get that deep pull back after. That could be very deep on these lot of speculators in these, in this group. See if I can set another fibonacci target here. This fibonacci expansion to move. Um, it’s pretty fun and a lot of times in a corrective Structure, you’re looking for either a .382 expansion off the top of the initial leg of the correction. But in this case that was over shot. So we’ll look at the .618 And there it is at 38 76. It’s almost there mm, anybody in the room use um, what’s it called? Um, it’s something brokers. Um, I’ve been flirting with the idea of uh looking at their platform, came back, I’m brain farting right now. It’s something brokers like international brokers or dog gone it what’s the name of it? It’s a it’s a big firm, it’s got that Germanic sounding owner that’s been onto T. V. A lot. Um Interactive interactive brokers, anybody use their uh their main charting platform, their top top of the line charting platform, anybody. I’m wondering if it has um uh similar log charts and drawing tools because to think or swim does not. And so I’m I’m gonna put this on my list of things to do. I’ve been meaning to do this but I want to see if they have that because uh they they’ve got really good commission rates and margin rates and everything. And it used to be I thought there mean charting platform was really strange and I couldn’t get used to it. It’s been years though since I looked at it. And so I’m going to um demo uh interactive brokers platform and see if it’s got the Sima log uh tools. Because if it does, I might be able to recommend that is something that you might want to look at instead of think or swim. Uh so you can get these start using these similar drawing tools um and it’s free, as long as you have a funded account, they’re pretty sure, and I’m not sure you even have to pay for the pay for the date. I’ll have to look at it. Who do? Right, okay. I’m kind of surprised nobody’s on that. Yeah, I did download a demo. I just forgot to look at it. Some hard drive. I really need to take a hard look at that. Um Real estate, big Picture on real estate is looking for a pullback through mid year, but it might have a spike inside of it. So we’ll see if that stays correct. This is um At this juncture because that’s a January 13 projected high. I think I better change this abc for W. A. B. See for ex A. Yeah A. B. See for why. And I think I’m gonna go with this for now. Um I think on this one it’s awfully difficult to call that plunge down into March a wave for because it overlaps every every potential wave one top. So real estate while it might stay up over the next few years, a couple of years, I’m not, it may have topped in february, so I’m gonna change the real estate count to that right now because it makes more sense. Um um with the Hurst for now and this upward movement does look Ciampi and corrective. So we’ll see if this breaks down here. Home builders you shot up last week. So the Song Brothers did kind of the same thing that are not last week, but the last couple of weeks. Yeah. I think I’m referring to call this a wave one of an ending contracting dying on. Surely that’s gone about as far as I can go right now. That’s uh, that’s an overshoot of uh pretty good tribunals targeting. And the reason I’m concerned about how far this has gone right now Is the best target for the end of the 5th wave. It’s just not very far away At $72 on, on home billers. Sure. I guess it could be screaming into, into that price right now and we’ll top, If it does get up to 72-09 in fairly short order, then I’m going to have changed this count and call that the top, That’s because from the March 2009. Low one two three four. And that would be the best target for Or Wait five Top. Yeah. Yeah. And retail. Uh X. R. T. Uh Moving higher. Um And over shooting when I felt like was the best target. Um I have a pretty solid five wave absolute here. And then a B. Wave and then 123 Possible. The four is here now. 12345. Very very toppy here. Once again the target for the top. Uh huh. Best target for the top. Large degrees 86 86. If it just kept going up then I’d have to be where you know looking at possibly calling the top on this now and not later. Okay. Uh huh. Excuse me onto mining. I don’t really have much of anything to offer on the shippers this week. although um Greg I think you own a bunch of shippers think they had a damn week didn’t he? Shippers across the board pretty much and I was surmising last week that they have been screaming higher lately but they but the shippers might be just about done moving up. Um I guess it depends on which ones you’re in then because I I scanned through them, it looks like most of them had a down week. Let me look here Here in 30 of them. Um Okay that one had enough week. They won’t hear the day and week, I haven’t had it down they were kind of flat day and week here. Very top you got a brown box on the NDS X. And these are weekly weekly overbought levels. If you get a brown box Down on this one Up on that one big reversal candle here on my blog. Glop was down this one was up sideways up a little sideways up just a hair. Big reversal looking candle on G. S. L. Down on H. M. L. P. Little Down on this one. Damn then I would say as a general so now we got two damn weeks in a row on L. P. G. And kind of sideways on the M. M. L. P. Nance keeps heading south sideways on the nm in mm sideways um sideways danish. That was uh salt salt. It should be okay looking a little toppy man looking a little toppy on across the board down this year on sfl down on T. G. P. Most of these look like they tried to roundly maybe put in a slight new intra week high and then gave a lot of it back. So you know what I’m seeing on at least on the ones I’m tracking and I’m, that’s probably 20 From the 25 of them. That then is starting to show a little *** in our armor right here. I’m just be awful careful here because if we get this pullback in stocks through mid year, I I doubt that these things keep screaming higher if you’re way way into profit. I think I mentioned this last week, I want to ring the register a little bit and then, and then uh, Let me see if I’m getting the feed on BT. I don’t know. I don’t think I just looked at, no, I haven’t gotten anything since January eight on Baltic drive. Nothing. Uh huh And I’m gonna put that on my calendar to call trade Navigator. Mhm Good. What happened? Yeah. To what’s that? Ticker be? Dollar beady eye putting it in my calendar, call them. Uh huh. Okay. They’ve had a nice run. Really nice run. But you know, uh I’m kind of universally on most stock items looking for that pullback through mid year. I’d be awfully surprised if they could buck that trend or about that idea. You know, stand alone is the only thing that continues to be strong. I am looking for X led to be strong through april. But after after a pullback and maybe, you know, maybe these shippers are kind of in the same boat. Uh they were so beat down, you know, uh so last week I was calling for a pullback in uranium and that’s exactly what we’re getting. So this roadmap so far is working pretty well. I think we get a corrective abc pullback through mid year. And then um I think uranium is no different than a lot of things. I think it’s gonna rip roar to the upside and you know starting about mid year. Uh huh. Yeah and but it did pull back some list last week quite and it it really starting to give some up here proof GDX so I’ve been working on a roadmap that it would allow the miners to stay down through approximately mid year and give the U. S. Dollar index a chance to you know, bounce you know after a five way down a very large five way down structure that started back in March. So I’m looking for the US. dollar next to bounce back to the way four of Western one lesser degree. And you know we’re still debating you know whether the bottom is For sure in or not on that. So it’s still very early in that in that proceeding. But I do expect that to happen through July of 2021. So if the dollar is bouncing to the upside then I just think that’s going to be a major headwind for the miners until we get to mid year. And so um then I’m I’m looking at the Hurst roadmap which has been excellent and trying to figure out, you know, how is that going to proceed? And um so I’ve updated all the Hurst on this, the comm puzzle lined the nest, the fsc cycle program everything. And I still think, I think GDX is headed lower down into, I’m gonna say early to mid, early to mid february. And then I, and and that might be the end of the first leg up in the U. S. Dollar. After all, I am looking at a corrective rebound in the U. S. Dollar. So baby, you know, somewhere in mid february, we get the kind of the end of the first leg up in the U. S. Dollar. And that if GDX would make it down to about 30, you know the low target here. Well the extreme away four of one lesser degree, which should should be a pretty good target is 31 22, 31 22. And I think, yeah, if GDX gets back to their and I am expected it will over the next few weeks. Yes, then I think it’s a bind. I’m just gonna go ahead and say it. I think it’s a buy here for a move to the upside. Um So I think we’re getting close. Mhm. You notice them but we’re not there. This looks like a five way down structure here for one In a two and and then on down. And I can tell you that the compose a line is bearish only through December or January 30, but there’s a 40 week cycle trough nest Centered on about feb 11 and then the fsc cycle program. Thanks. Um GDX stays down all the way to feb 21. So I think there’s enough time for it to finish a five wave down structure from, from the January five high one, 2, 3 45. And then you know, I think it’s worth getting in there now. You can get into individual stocks are at that point or you could get in and GDX or you get in with nugget or j nug and I think look for a bounce. I don’t know how big that bounce is going to be after all. This is this is another wave wine. So that one weakness. And Elliott wave is you really prior to, If you’re expecting a wave one, unless you have a real clear way for one lesser degree to look for in which we really don’t have here, then it’s hard to set a target For for the end of one ahead of time. So um I am looking for a bounce there based on the cycles and and the cycles. Both cycles programs think that G. D. S gonna bounce all the way from the same mid february, all the way to late May and then pull and then I think they pull back. And about the time the U. S. Dollar is done with its wave two and and start and getting ready for wave three to the downside. Then lo there’s I really think there’s going to be a strong by point over here mid year as well. So I mean a person could wait until then. Yes. So I’m trying to put it kind of fit this picture together with with the U. S. Dollar roadmap and this is a this is the best job I can do, so right right at the moment. But I think there’s some exciting times coming for GDX. I might get a national initial balance here um starting in february, the last multi month bounds, but but if a person missed that, I think their last opportunity to really get on board fairly early on this, it’s going to be june july time frame. The notice the wave camp Um from the March Low one 212 Very very bullish, very bullish. If we do get that screaming inflation and we get the big infrastructure comes out somewhere june july time frame bill, they’re going to print many trillions that’s going to be super super positive for this group. So very exciting times coming. Um and you know, it could be that in february they get about as low as they’re gonna get during this pullback. So I’m starting starting to get a bit excited about this group because if we do get an inflationary move, this is these are the kind of stocks and it can put up some some big multiples right? Right now they’re in a correction and I think they’re still in correction to the downside. Yeah, still looking pretty weak. Uh that count really isn’t right. I need to rework this too. So it matches the GDX count just as a reminder and a weekly chart on GDX. Yeah, I am expecting a low here but let’s not forget this 12 here and this this was second in the way of two could be pretty deep wave too. As a matter of fact, I suppose as possible that we don’t get the black wave to until over here as well. But I don’t if we get back to the way four of one lesser degree here, I don’t think there’s much more downside for this group And that once again that stand around 31 22 on GDX. Uh huh. Mhm. Let’s see here, Silver, same kind of concept on silver. You know, I think we’re moving down into in this case late January but I wouldn’t be surprised that works its way into early of february and then an up move and and then the ultimate new york do not miss being long, it’s going to come mid year. I don’t think I updated that chart this week or this one a copper looking for a pullback through mid year now in copper this this kind of looks like an extended fifth wave, so I’m not sure it can retrace all of this. Move down maybe most of it. Uh And then Uh huh once again Very bullish. So from this early 2016 low black A. And a black be very deep and now blue one Blue 2. I’m sorry black B. That should be a blue one. I’ve got the wrong colors on these charts. Mm There’ll be a blue wine and a blue too. What is your problem? So if it moved back to the extreme of way to within the extended Fifth wave it would be back to 21:01. Pretty pretty deep pull back we see what else I can figure on this, Make sure it’s similar log. No here we go. So now I’m going to look for Fibonacci Target for the 5th wave and see ooh well don’t you love it. Here’s here’s the difference. So the top tick we’ve seen so far or just ever so slight overshoot was um where wave five in pink was very normal um .618 Times the net travel to 123. And that is that line right there and that appears to be where to stop going up. This is the value of the similar log charts. Yeah. Uh for some reason it had flipped out of semi log mode. I thought I had put every dog gone chart I had in semi log mode but apparently not. Uh huh. Mhm. And so look at that that target there and then I’m going to take it down to simple log mode and that target that same target is here when it’s when it’s in regular. So that this is a really good example of what how how extremely important it is when you’re drawing your Fibonacci is especially on weekly charts. The daily charts, even Even 240 minutes starts now when you get into, if you’re trading five minute charts, it’s not going to make a huge difference at all there, But boy, it really does make a difference all the way to 240 minute charts. So we’re going to change this back to similar and and that puts the target right there. So there’s uh topics, copper miners, the very bullish count. But looking for that pullback, looking for that pullback, uh huh some silver socks have been acting real jumpy, but I I just don’t think they’re going to take off and go right here now, I think they’re gonna pull back um in the case of first majestic down into early april Yeah, um I suppose it’s possible that even makes a slight new high here, but I’m still not going to call that a breakout move. Uh Barrack gold has been doing all of about nothing and still in position to pull back down to Slightly under $20 at which point I think barrack um it’s going to be looking good for a wave to bottom and then but then don’t be surprised if we get a very good Um one in a two through june july down here, but as goes Barrick, Sogo’s GDX to some degree, there’s a very large component of GDX, another large component of GDX is Numa. So um and so I’m looking for a finish of this double zigzag to the downside. And then don’t be surprised if we get a You know one and a two next down through mid year, a little bit more, a little further towards the middle of the year before it takes off the upside. So here’s another one that um is a very big influencer on G. D. X. When you put Barrick and Newmont together It’s pretty solid percentage maybe 20 or something of G. d. x. What? Yeah. Um So looking for a pullback here on New man Newmont, I don’t have any Updated two counts across the rest of the board on all of the other miners. Um And I honestly I think when we get into early to mid february um I will say some of some of them, some of the miners have been very strong and others have been on the weak side. So C. D. E. I don’t think it’s given up enough yet in order to become abide still too. I whereas a Ui Yamana, it has been following GDX pretty well and if we get any kind of pull back down to you know under five bucks, 459 is the way four of one lesser degree for you know, we’re getting we’re getting closer 2459. And I think you wanna might might want to start accumulating If it gets down to 459, it’s not that far away. Uh E. Q. X. Uh I think it needs to get down to the way four of one less agreed, which is probably down around 8:16 F. Sm. Yeah, probably has quite a bit further down to go. So let’s see some of these have stayed up go row on the other hand, found a new low below its November low, there’s a definite laggard. Uh It used to be real strong but just not looking so great these days. Um mucks I think needs to drop back to probably 70 cents before even considering it and it is a terrible laggard now and it used to be really strong favored stock and it’s just completely lost that kind of status. Um Hecla I think has further down to go I think what we see on some of the other metals like platinum and things like that have an effect here on Heclam. But you know the way forward one lesser degree and heckle is It’s way down here at 2 73. You know if vehicle gets anywhere near three bucks then it’s a screaming buy screaming by you know maybe even higher than that. uh but this looks like a 12345 and kind of a B. Need that sea wave down In order to get anywhere near that. That way. four of one lesser degree which is uh Slightly below three box. Um Well if it gets down there I think this would be a group. Really great one. But it’s gonna give up quite a bit before it gets down to $3. It’s just 5:39. Uh huh. Gold. It’s been has been coming down. So I think what if new goal can get down to a buck and a half then then I think it’s when you get a might want to pick up some shares. Sand. This is a royalty company 1234. It’s already down to the way for one. That’s great. So so now I’m looking for you know It’s already retraced .382. If Sam gets down to 50 retraced down to around six bucks then I think it’s probably worth buying and holding their for the next couple of years. And just knowing that if it does a full .618 retrace it might make it all the way down to 5:18. Yeah but this is my opinion on this stock. This is a gift. This drop it was a 1063 back in late July And now it’s down to 6 64. So this is starting to get priced right. In my opinion S. V. M. This is another one. This is the lowest cost silver producer and producing my mind in the world. 12 probably 345 So it’s bit shopping corrective lee lower And it was up at 8:91 and now it’s at 5:99. If it gets down to five and a quarter that’s probably low enough to you know start nibbling back in here. In my opinion. This this downward movement i this is not this is not impulsive, its corrective A. B. C. X A. B. And then 12345 You know I think it’s possible that S. V. M. Might get all the way down to 4 33 and talk about a stock that’s probably going to scream higher during this next inflationary phase. This one’s got a lot of potential. So starting to pull back on some of these enough. That’s getting really exciting. I showed uh wheaton last week and just did a real rough Idea on it. But this looks like a 12345. Well there’s the extreme away for one lesser degree. It hasn’t quite hit that yet At 36. This is another great stock and in the sector but this looks like a head and shoulders pattern And I think it’s gonna dump back to 50 retrace if we can get down around $33. I think. I think it looks pretty good. They’re really good. So I think it’s worth taking a quick peek through those to see that some of them have been real stubborn and sank higher. They probably have a lot of institutional support and other ones it needs have been pulling back in their good stocks and and after the U. S. Dollar especially gets done with its pullback correction. Uh For wave two I really ought to draw it more like this. Then. I think these stocks are going to be real good. But we could get the dropped below the neckline next on this kind of head and shoulders pattern. Uh mate. A And I think you were mentioning L. I. T. Last week and um L. Let you probably get a kick out of this. But I did Hurst on it and um I did do one reap in order to get this right. But um. Mhm Hurst thinks that light has putting in an 18 month cycle peak right now and that it’s gonna pull back into this next 18 month cycle trough, which is, it’s kind of staggered, it might be due as late as november, but probably down through about the low point in the composite line is around july and that makes sense. And then it’s up into the mid 2022. So I’m looking for that pullback next into July and then on up into July 22 could be a screaming move. So this is this is a hell of a, of a move up so far. And boy talk about overbought. It’s on the short term, quiet overbought. It could quick, you know, sneak just a little bit higher to the next. Fibonacci targets 78 22 but I I think it’s more likely, awfully toppy here and look for a pullback through mid year for the next uh move up. You’re welcome. Now moving on to European stocks, use their stock indices.
Markets outside the U.S:
The Dax, I think is due for a way to pull back and then it’s gonna move on higher. Eventually have uh upside target on the backs of 18,371, so substantially higher than it is now and same thing on the deck. So I think the initial move up through early September was the five waves up. And then we got a three wave down structure for a and this is a B wave and the B wave has moved him, you know, right into the typical zone for the end of a B wave of an expanded flat. Looks like a pretty toppy right here. And I’m going to move down into early july according to her. It’s probably bottom a little before. that could be a fairly substantial pull back All the way down to maybe 1087 daily daily chart. So this would be a five wave up structure through early September than a three wave down And a three wave up. And this is a little cleaner looking three wave up structure from the Halloween low, there’s the rocket ship up for A and then a little running flat for B and then an ending contracting dialogue for see where it really came close to tagging. Yeah, A really good Fibonacci target for the end of black wave B and I think it’s going to work its way lower Next, admittedly it looks like Like a 1-1, 2 or something. You know, it’s, it hasn’t giving given a strong in a kind of fire wave looking structure really to the downside yet, but uh, I still think that’s, that’s what’s next, we’re going to move down in five waves. Um potentially all the way back to 0.6 point eight retrace maybe not that deep, but still uh could get a fairly substantial pull back through mid year on the Dax and then very bullish on the decks from there. Right. Mhm. The last tax by signals back in late december got stopped out and it really hasn’t had enough of a directional move ever since that they would attempt another long position. But here’s, here’s what’s troubling on this on the algo on the dax is this adaptive moving average needs to be sloping to the upside in order for the trend to be considered up. And you can see it in the last few days, it has flattened straight out. So as soon as that um turns red like I did like right here, then the trend will officially be down on the deck. So that could happen with one more. As early as one more bearish candle, it would probably need to move down below these most recent knows in order to get that a trend change signal. Uh as far as the Dead Sea, We recently a 91 on the Dax. Very rich on the footsie, embarrassed through mid year. I think that um this big move up here was a B. Wave and that it’s already looking weak and should see a move to the downside next. And the footsie down according to hers. Down through early july could be a solid five wave structure moving down below the the way they low, which is back on the rent Halloween. Then then a strong up shoot move into the middle of 20-2022 after that. So A. And now A. B. C. Expanded flatter I think maybe of the expanded flight is finished. Came really close to a perfect target for it. And now it’s gonna think it’s going to work its way lower down into early july. Uh So there’s footsie. Yeah yeah now into the hang saying Nikkei Australian and Canadian stock markets shanghai few few more markets around the globe on the hang sang a very very strong move to the upside recently. Um That I think was the final up shoot associated with the weaker dollar for now. And that you can see on that weekly candle that it closed well off its high. And I’m looking for a move down according to Hurst through about May 29 next it’s very bullish after that. Just like everything else. Very bullish to all time highs. Very very big move coming on the chinese Stock markets. And so I’ve got this as a blue one in this wacky blue wave to here and then a really clean clear five wave structure with an extended fifth wave came awfully close to a target where the green wave file will be equal to the net travel that went through three very extended. And now I think it’s time for that pullback. And I see that June 13 is now the date june 13. These dates will kind of wash around and more for a little bit. Um Yeah so so looking for a pretty deep a .618 pull back of this entire five wave structure to the upside over the next few months. And then I think you’ve got to be long emerging markets. E. M. Did I show that? E. M. Yeah looking for the pullback through mid year before moving much much much higher. Mhm. Yeah, shanghai, Looking for a pullback through mid year before moving much, much, much higher. Mhm. Nikkei looking for a pullback through mid year before moving up. Not much much much higher in this case, but up to 1 32,050 is I think the best target for the end of the fifth wave, up from The 2009, 12 1 two, three and then figuring this it’s kind of a running flat sort of concept. Although it’s a I think it w W X, Y, you know, double zigzag and then this has moved up in the three wave structure. I think so, I think this is a this rocket ship to the upside recently, wave one of eventual ending contracting diagram. And it’s made it awfully close, you know, it’s traveled a lot of that distance so far to that target. Uh um best target for it. So I think we’re going to get Contracting Daigle on that one. Similar to the russell, several other things. Canadian stock market. We have the same thing here that I think we have in the U. S. Stock market, we have a. B. Way. But I think it is and it has overshot the best target, but I still think it counts best as up from the March low is the initial five wave up structure ending in early September. Excuse me. Yeah. And they were getting an expanded flat and looking for, it’s a pretty solid pull back Down into mid-year before it moves higher. The eventual target for the top of the Canadian stock markets 21,400. So it’s substantially higher. And you think it’s substantially higher than now if we get this pullback down through 14,400, huge, huge move coming to the upside to get to that fib target Australian stock market. Um, I was saying last week that I felt like it needed a little, you know, end of this fifth wave out of this possible triangle pattern that appears to be what it’s giving. I can’t say if it’s for sure done yet or not, but then I think we gotta pull back to the way four of one lesser degree. All of this movement up from october I think is a, is a thrust out of a triangle. So I think it’s going to return back To the way forward one lesser degree. That’s a 59 70 before moving substantially higher. Eventual target 93 71. Uh, There is a higher Fibonacci target that this could hit. It would be a normal Fibonacci target. If my labeling for 12 three and 4 is correct And then it’s 74 33. It hasn’t gone up there yet. And so this this uh This move up on this thrust out of the struggle 1 2, three, a little blob here for four now to breaking out, could move a little higher. Yeah, I’ve reworked these counts. Uh Rework these counts entering the comment in the chat, but mhm. I think you’ll find that across the board. These counts are are fit a much more fitting together with the overall picture. This is uh last year I was zoned in a lot on Hurst and um I didn’t have, I think a comprehensive overall global look at what commodities and currencies were going to do. And I really this year have taking a hard look at that and I think um that I’ve got these counts into a much better position now that I ever had before. Uh because they’re they really should work together. And sometimes the Hurst can be deceptive oil or a person can give too much weight to it. And so kind of have a change of the way I go about things Here for 2021, I think it’s going to be beneficial. Um And so there’s the Australian stock market um nifty 50. It’s a very good chance that the alternate here. I haven’t changed the alternate to the main, but it’s pretty good chance that the alternative is gonna play out here in the nifty. Um But in fact, I’ll make a note here uh Mhm. That the the alternate is preferred. But next week I’ll probably um get this, get this switched around where this entire move up from the March low is a wave one. Yeah. And um start looking at some some longer Fibonacci targets. Let’s see if I can set one real quick just based on the end of this. So this is the 2008 Low. And so if we expand the wave one and look at some Fibonacci expansions off of that top And they had 1.618 I guess they’re on there too on their way higher, way, way higher. Uh so that really isn’t helping much. So I’m going to use one other target way of doing a target And that is and look for way five at Burgundy on some log chart To be a .618. This would look for burgundy. We have five To be .618 times that the net travel to 123. Uh huh. And that really is up here. Okay, mm. On the nifty. So I think that up from this, that really the main, it’s now going to be Way up at the target is going to be 21-30 on the nifty, Probably late in 2022, possibly getting into 2023. And this is going to, it’s mean that I’m going to go ahead and update this short nails. So looking for a pull back to the way for one last degree before just moves strongly higher on the nifty, make sure I’m in similar. Yes, So I’ve got the burgundy wave three top up up from the 2008 low Occurring in the in mid 2019. This target here now is the blue target. Just take a second. It’s hard to get around to getting absolutely everything On all these charts the way you want them. But yeah, this is a one two, three, four, 1 2 345. So that very good chance that we have interim top in the nifty and that we’re gonna get a solid pull back For wave two down into approximately July. Um and then on a eventual target Way up there at 21- 30 on the Nifty. I’ve been needing to do this for a while. So it’s done now and then there would be a significant and very major top almost done. And that would have the march love of last year being away for almost coming down to the Extreme of the way four of 1 lesser degree. And then 123 wacky wave 4 to 5 through here, A B. C. A basically a flat. It looks good. So that’s gonna be the nifty. Uh and and then this would be a major top matt mushu major top there. So there’s nifty and that’s something I’ve been needing to do for a while. Thank for you for your patients when I got that worked out. Okay. Uh and then brazil also looking for a pullback through the middle of the area in brazil got that new strain of uh coronavirus, that is probably the one that’s I think worrying the experts the most. Um, so it could get a pretty solid pull back here on brazil through mid year before, before it moves higher. Yeah, on the bonds.
So if we’re going to see a period of risk off through mid year, I’m expecting bonds to rally and I believe that they have begun started to rally. The question is going to be um How big of a rally will we get? We’ll start on junk bonds. So, uh, I think this is just an overblown be wave and we’re going to get a pullback through midyear and junk bonds and then move much higher leading diagonal for one and then an A. B. See expanded to fly through mid year. Mhm. TLT. Yeah. I’m gonna show you an alternate account here in a minute. That’s different. That’s not showing on this count. But um if we’re going to see risk off through mid year, I think. Well, I think we’ll see a rally in bonds, possibly a big one that would shock everyone. Um with one more new all time high and bonds. I’ll show you how that would work. Look um On the short term known as 240 minutes chart. Well, um looking rather bonomy here bonds after that, that one plunge. And and I think we could see a lot more upside than what we’re seeing now. And we’re seeing that TLT has created a new green box the end of the week on a 240 minute chart. And and it’s flirting with breaking nicely above its adaptive moving average. That would be an uptrend A Z. B. Contract. This shows the long term count on the bonds And from this 2000 low looking for a five wave up structure that would be an ending expanding diagonal abc for one two, abc for three, abc for four. Everything is moving in A. B. C. S. And then a fine wave of structure here and then a pretty choppy, corrective pullback. And there could be one more blast the upside uh to new to new highs above the high we just saw. And the reason is because that’s what this wave count calls for. If this is an ending diagonal, each leg of a diagonal is an A. B. C zigzag, right? So if this five wave up structure was just wave A and this is always be, yeah. You know, I’ve had this count for a very long time. I thought I’m sticking with it. Uh, I’m sure no one believes it, but it still works well from a, uh, from an Elliott wave standpoint when you start with a long term charts with the account. And then the other thing that works well with it is hurst and that is looking for these to move up through mid year. So that would be a risk off. And if we’re going to get that kind of move in bonds to the upside and this pullback in stocks is going to be pretty scary. And I am calling for a 20 pullback in stocks. So there’s the short term count on the ZB contract. ZB contract still hasn’t moved below. It’s March low right here. That that plunge first. And so if you’re going to have a bullish count here, it’s one and then an abc for W. And X. Wave and then an abc for why. And then the next wave and then an abc for Z. That’d be the end of way too. And it came within an eyelash of invalidating that count. And even if it did move below pink to unveil a validation, There is an 80 day cycle trough do here in late January that it should bounce out of. Um I’ve got even more. And then when we get to the Z in contract, there’s the monthly chart that shows the very same expectation of needing a finished five wave expanding diagonal up from the uh 1999 low. And it’s not done yet, if it is going to finish, they will need to move up and make new all time highs. Uh Yeah. And who knows, maybe negative interest rates by then could be that’s the first thing that the Fed tries, you know, if if the stock market starts to put in a correction here, they already disease zero interest rates, maybe they actually experiment with going negative for a minute. Seems like that’s what they would have to do if this right wave count ends up being correct. But a lot of people are counting this sideways junk. We’ve been seeing differently. Lot of people are considering that that top in March, that high, that peak high, that spike I was as high as bonds are ever going to get. And then they’re counting this as a way one to the downside And then a two. And then they’re counting this is another one and now they’re looking for a wave too. Well if that’s the correct hit then bones. Uh And and if cycle analysis is of any help the earliest peek out of this trough right here is due uh mid april. And so we would have to rally but still stay within this very narrow sideways price range In a wave two. And then in its wave three or 3 to the downside after that. So there’s so I have placed the other guys webs uh wave count on on my Xeon contract. So you can see you know my count has been very bullish. You can see what the most likely bearish uh Count would look like. And if the bearish count is correct, then the Zeon contract can’t move above the peak it made in early august. So there’s there’s the difference between the two, there’s the main and there’s the alternate, there’s the line in the sand. Mm notice uh the commercials on a six month look back or have moved into heavily bullish position on bonds right now. Okay, Okay. Next is uh commodities crude oil.
Crude Oil & Natural Gas:
So um hurst is very bullish on crude oil all the way into let’s say late September 2022. And I’m counting it as an A. And A B. Already complete. We’re only in the way of sea to the upside and we’re putting the finishing touches on wave one blue within black wave. See it’s a very bullish. Why would I be this bullish on crude oil? Well, it’s because uh I think the dollar is gonna get smashed, starting about mid year All the way through probably 2023. So that should prop up commodities and we’ll get this inflationary, you know. Yeah. Kind of giant giant inflationary move that starts about mid year on lot of commodities and I think oil is going to be one of them. I think it bottoms before we get to September it’s probably more and more mid year. So looking for an abc pull back. The question in my mind is do we have a finish to this blue 2-5 wave up structure from this? Black be low yet? And um it’s possible there’s a similar chart, there’s the black way below. So looking for the end of a five pink waves up to call a top on blue wave one and then I think we get a blue wave too. Over through mid year that blue wave to might be an expanded flat. Could could have a new high end. Yeah. Yeah. Um noticed that the if a C. Cycle program is bearish from early January down into late february. Whereas the hurst thinks that crude oil might manage to stay up all the way into mid february so there’s a window for potential top and when we get to the 240 minutes charming, start looking at How to how to count the five pink waves up. So one two in pink and then 12345 for three in pink, foreign pink and five and pink underway one two I think three here and I think maybe way for here and I think crude oil has still is most likely to need a move up Through um 58 in some change 58, 55, something like that. Yeah. Oh yeah, that’s interesting shale and franking ban or reduction under the administration. That’s probably been boosting oil prices. You know the new administration come in certainly be one of the things along with the Saudis coming in, I can hear somewhere and saying they were going to cut production and so all of these things I think are bullish on oil And my count is extremely bullish in oil so long term. But I don’t think we’ve seen a five wave up structure finished from this low. Get if if we have it’s a wine two, 345 and that would be the top. That’s possible. It’s been having trouble. Yeah, moving higher or lower ever since that top. And this looks to me unless it has a further breakdown, like more of a way forward to me than anything else. It has dropped out of this channel. But sometimes wave files will do that before they finally finished the wave five. So my main count Is that the, the top is an end. They’ve got a target up here 58 in some change. My alternate count is that yes, five waves up is finished and we’re going to start into a corrective period. Um uh and that corrective period will be a multi month, multi month corrective period. Mhm. Um I don’t expect oil to drop below the low That occurred on November two during the corrective period and as part of my main count, So um 33 64 is invalidation. Uh huh. So it could be that oil just kind of moves in a silent waste channel through mid year and before it really catches fire in that inflationary move to the upside. Um Mhm. See what else I have for you here on crude oil? Not a lot. You know the on the daily trend chart? Yes, crude oil is has moved up enough on a daily chart where the 80 exit reached above 60 that normally is um creates pretty strong resistance at that level. So at the, the uptrend has reached a fairly stretched level as far as the daily chart in the 80 X being over 60. So that kind of supports possibility. Maybe, maybe we do have five waves up from this low uh in place, we’ll see um that’s one strike against uh huh. that potential my main count idea to move up to 59 before correcting back in the wave too. Um You know, crude oil only hit a 75 on the dead sea as it was putting in its most recent peak in mid mid January. So that’s not exactly, you know, super high. Uh there’s more room, there’s more room for higher DSE numbers than that. But yeah, definite loss of momentum starting last week. You know, the six month look back commercials are all of a sudden starting to hedge pretty strongly. 6-month look back commercials pretty pretty heavily short, not completely heavily short, but it looks like they’re starting to hedge against the potential drop back in prices. Natural gas, natural gas um, had a very bearish week last week. And I don’t think it’s done with a pattern that I think it’s going to take it back to its way for of one lesser degree. And that would be quite an additional plunge to the downside, back down to around $2 bucks and then bullish, bullish. So, um, if natural gas can, can move down to this way, four of one lesser degree tonight, I think that’s as low as we’re going to see natural gas for the next few years. And then it’s very bullish from there. Um, we, we would get a pullback through mid year. So, uh, mid year is kind of the bottom, I think on a lot of items. But we might get the bottom earlier on natural gas than we do. And there could be a secondary low by the time we get to mid year. Okay. Um Yeah I think it might puke out here on F. C. G. Uh Yeah I am expecting natural gas lower. But on F. C. G. You know we may only get a pull back to the way four of one lesser degree. This looks like 12345 So we might get a pull back down to 8 62. And that might be and you know about as low as F. C. G. Gets for nail. Makes sense to me. Um But you know the the move to the upside from there. We might get another wave one In a two like that. But and that would take us closer to mid year. Then we get the massive move up. Uh huh. Um Sarah. I already showed you uranium. I don’t think I really I did work on updating my count on C. R. B. And Xo by the way on egg egg. It’s been screaming to the upside grains and things. I would look for a pullback through mid year and then more strong upside on on Ag. Uh And then it’s the CRB index. I look for a pull back to the way for one lesser degree through mid year. Maybe three about their before more strong upside on the CRB index. I’ve been updating some of these commodities charts. Ah Same thing with the solar E. T. F. Looking for a pullback through mid year and then more more upside on that. I already showed you uranium. I don’t think DBC has been screaming higher. But yeah I really think we’re gonna when we see as we see the U. S. Dollar put in a wave to after a big wave, wind Started back in March of 2020. And and just now finished or is very close within an eyelash of finishing big five wave structure town in the U. S. Dollar index. Looking for them move back to at least the way for one lesser degree between now and mid year. And so that means um down on most commodities during that period. And then that’s where the big inflationary, you know, either way three and many items in this case a wave sea to the upside gets, gets started as the dollar gets into a wave three. Big Wave 3 to the downside. They may not bottom until Late 2023. They’ll be very inflationary on commodities. Probably stocks as well. Uh Maybe not quite everything.
Industrial Metals (Palladium & Copper):
Uh palladium will just show you real quick um Looking for that pullback through mid year and then, I don’t know if palladium can rip roar to new all time highs or not. It looks like to me it is finished a five wave structure to the upside already 12 And then 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 3 for there’s your blowout waiting, you know, commodity style wave five right to a Fibonacci target her says it’s an 18 year cycle peak. The the big drop that I’m calling as a wave one. And then I think this is a pretty choppy corrective move up. So I’m going to call this a wave too. So, uh let’s pull back on, on palladium, down through mid year, another away from one and then a And then a wave to up through mid 2022. Um So I’m not so sure palladium, it seems to me on the long term kind account to palladium that has already worked its way through a completed structure to the upside. I also have a new composite line. I’ve been working real hard on her cycle analysis on copper and trying to get something to make sense. And I think I have no there’s no re pens, but I’m exclude excluding the signal l uh um cycle that’s Sentient trader sometimes puts in their call economy phantom cycle, but this move to the upside in copper hurts just now with no repent. Is labeling that as having finished a topped in an 18-month cycle peak I’ve seen before where it was a little premature in that, but it’s seen enough loss of momentum here now that it’s going ahead and calling the recent high in Coppers 18-month cycle peak. Now the composite line, it doesn’t represent price, it only represents direction and it it also is projecting a pullback probably down through about May june That’s when the next 40 weeks cycle trough is due. And that’s probably also going to be the 18-month cycle straw and then lots more upside up In a way three into late 2021 and then a wave four into early 2022 and then around Mid 20 2022. That’s probably about April 2022 topping there in that finishing a one two 345 wave structured upside. Could it talk later than that? Yao And it might if the U. S. Dollar It’s going to be weak and the first thing is going to be weak all the way to November 2023. That would put this no top way over here. This 5th wave up continuing higher And copper. So I think we’ve likely finished a wave one to the upside and copper and then we’re going to get a wave to before we get away three up, that’s kind of the cleanest most. The best I’ve been able to get the composite line to look using different starting points and possible re pens and stuff. And amazingly, it was just a matter of getting back to the DTM data feed and Selecting a proper a starting point and I’ve got my starting point on this is December 1994 peaks and troughs. No repens case for those of you that have senior trader. So I’m looking for a pullback through mid year. Uh huh. Now we know that we can we can see this is likely complete five wage structure to the upside and looking for Corrective pullback back to the way four of 1 lesser degree. Does that pull back have to be as exact no, it could be, it could be a flat, it could make heaven new high inside of it. But still by the time it gets done back to the way four of one lesser degree is um, it’s the best prediction I think I can make right now. Uh huh. So I think conference likely finished. We also have exited the extreme territory and the RSC, the spread between the commercials and large specks was extremely, extremely wide at this top. I’m looking for the corrective pullback here in copper through mid year, Back to 283 and then screaming higher In a way of three. So here’s the abc pull back on a daily chart. Also noticed that the overbought territory ended here and I put a pink stripe there that was on the top tech candle. And even though this, the sideways movement kind of looks like a triangle so far, I think it’s more likely to be kind of a 1-1, 2 and then it then it goes ahead then and moves on down through late May through mid june time frame. Her says the next 20 weeks cycle trough is due in early to mid february. Said that this way I’ve got a drum. So there’s copper, uh huh. The last attempt to go long on the algo was immediately stopped out. It’s uh, And the Dse was as high as an 88 at the top. We have end to an overbought territory here. So there’s the top tick so far in copper. We’ll see if that holds its pretty sideways. Since then it would need to break down out of that um, sideways consolidation in order for my wave count to be correct on the short term. Um all in all sentiment is um, it’s projecting that we’re awfully close to a major top there on copper. So platinum did sneak up to yet another new slight new high above the high that had occurred a couple of weeks prior but I couldn’t hold it and it fell back quite a bit last week. This is platinum and on platinum, I’m also very bullish in a way of one and then I think we’re getting expanded flat for way too, down through mid year and then very, very bullish after that. Up through at least the middle of 2022. Here’s the way I’m counting it up from the March low 123 45 and then three waves down for an A. Three waves up for A B. And then looking for a sea wave down to finish and expanded flat. And I’ve just drawn it into May bottoming in May because it has a good look to hurt us. Fsc cycle programs is april her says august, I don’t think it’s going to be this late. So somewhere in here going to be a bottom and and this I’m looking at from an Elliott wave standpoint at this move to the upside. So I think it needed to finish an A. BC and this needs to be a five to the upside 12 three for And then this five may not be um This five way may not be finished as an ending diagonal one two 345. It may sneak in one more slight new high although wave fives of ending contracting diagnose can truncate so it doesn’t have to make a new high. But I’ve done it that way just because it I really need a five up from here. I need a five up from here in order to really call this thing finished. Uh huh. Last year I would have just put put that be there and said well it looks like we’re not gonna get five this year. I’m looking at these internal subdivisions a lot better this part of the new leaf. I’ve turned over this year to get a little bit more granular into the internal wave structures in the fibonacci and make sure Elliott Wave is my number one method and that all the other methods are just guidelines are just guidelines. They’re not I’m not keying off them and keep enough internal wave structures. Wave counts feb a nazi targets and um Trying to draw on a drop the different to waive accounts that they make sense together from one From one item to the next. So there’s something different this year. Excuse me. Have trouble clearing my throat all day. So within an eyelash of of an 18 months top on platinum um and Greg says the platinum miners reverse down while Pl was speaking out. So it looks like they see the writing on the wall to excuse me.
Precious Metals (Gold & Silver):
So next up is gold and silver and then and then we’ll finish up with commodities. I mean currencies almost done. Let me just throw out there that time. I want the Chiefs to win today. Mhm. I know they want it all last year but big Patrick Mahomes fan looking forward to the games, but it’s gonna be tough to get some bad injuries. Yeah. So looking forward to watching some football today a little later. I love my homes. Who is hard not to like uh let’s see, let’s see what we have here. So in gold I have worked out a way on gold of expecting this correction to last a little further. So uh the U. S. Dollar index. And by the way I wrote up all these charts, I wrote up all these charts. And the last time I had done Hurst on on the U. S. Dollar is projecting a low in july and then I need a new Hurst on on on the U. S. Dollar nicks. And now it’s saying may may for low, I’m sorry for a for an end of the wave to correction to the upside in the dollar. And so things are morphing a little bit a little closer to us. Um Then then what some of these charts say, but this looks like an abc for a W. Abc for next. and then we’re in an A. B. See for a wine. I think it’s gonna keep going, we’ll get another X wave and a Z way we’re gonna get a triple zigzag on gold to the downside. And then looking for strong upside starting, you know, approximately mid year, maybe as early as May. And that’s really the way I’ve got a drawn here in May. Yeah. And I’ve got a target for a top on gold of 24 22 In early 2022, I’ll have to think about it. But it seems like that could be more of a blowout move than that to the upside than, you know, we’ll keep you posted on that. It’s time moves along right now. Trying to do the very difficult job of calling where the end of this correction is going to occur. And so far, I think we have an A triangle for B. C. For a. W. And then an abc for an X. and then three waves down for an a corrective wave B. It’s got a triangle in the middle of it. Oh, let’s see, come on. So be wave. And then looking for a five wave structure to the downside to complete a flat and um the minimum target. I mean I think it’s going to move down to 16 96 60. Yeah. And there would be a .382 expansion off the bottom of wave A of this flat. I tried to clean up these charts and get a bunch of old lines and crap on them and they were getting so busy. So you see equal .382 expansion of a. Yeah, so that is a 6 1916 96 50. I think that’s where it’s headed next and I think we got to get another strong head fake, you know, to the upside and then we finished the Z wave to the downside. I am going to go ahead and put this as as an alternate end of way for uh this uh huh is The beginning of the move up as a wave one and then over here maybe a deep wave to something like that, so that’s possible. So I know last time I was real busy warning that you know, be careful, don’t you know, if you want to buy and hold this is not necessarily the spot to do it. Yeah. Um but this but on this next load that I’m expecting and late later february here, I’m gonna say yeah, you might want to start adding on into if you want to build a position. Exactly, exactly. So you might want to start building a position here and that way, you know, in case it can’t make a new low over here in mid year. So just so I’m trying to get these things to match up at least, you know, give an alternate two matches up pretty well. So there’s gold. Um I can tell you the proposal line is immediately bearish on gold is immediately bearish on gold. Um and as if this is a one and a two, there’s a comm puzzle line suggesting a peek down, it’s suggesting gold’s gonna move down all the way to February 21. And they that kind of suggests that the dollar is going to go ahead and within a couple of days it’s going to get started getting a little more aggressive to the upside. Uh huh. Yeah, so there’s gold. Um Yeah, yeah, yeah, there’s no cell there. Well that is a just stopped out. Yeah, I’ll tell you this sideways choppy business, awfully tough, awfully tough trading environment, you know the best way to I think handle you know these kind of environments is to relax and wait until you uh see things make sense from a from the combined to Elliott wave Amherst standpoint and then start um and if and then start building position and so I you know, I think that point may maybe coming up here in mid to late February and to not over trade during a very choppy, you know, sideways super choppy market. Um Let’s see what gold sentiment is. So we just recently got a 69 on the dead sea on gold. It’s amazing. It’s as rich as it is to be to be honest, after this much sideways chop that’s pretty high number. It seems like there’s some more room easily to the downside. Um and they’re moving to silver on silver. I also think we might catch an opportunity for silver to bottom in February, but in the hearse is suggesting early February here. Now in this one there’s no re pins at all. And I think we’re in a triples, exact A B C for W. Abc for X. Abc for why? Abc for X. And then A B. C for Z. And that could be the end of the correction. Then we get a nice wave one up into early May and then a wave to into down into the same June July time frame. And then on up, the other possibility is that this triple zigzag only finishes wave A and then we get a B. Wave and the C. Wave that barely, that comes down and takes out whatever low this puts in here by a little bit. Not that much. I mean there is a way for retrace target Way down here at 1701. So those are the two possibilities that I’m spelling out for you on the way things are going to role and you know sometime in February I think there’s going to be a bottom and at least enough of a rally to trade but right at this exact moment on silver bearish in a wave sea to the downside. And I think that’s it’s possible tradable move maybe in um by being buying dust, you know shorting the miners, you know for this last leg down as possible. But um only into no later in early February I think. Uh huh. Let’s see what else we have here. Uh huh. Pretty bearish looking pattern like a one and then an abc for wave two. Can could be some strong downward movement here. Especially if the U. S. Dollar uh sprout some legs which I expected to do stronger than what it has. Yes, There was a buy signal on Jan 20 on the silver algo but the order did not fill the next day. I didn’t pull back enough and therefore it is void. So my new system of weight of back testing for how big of a backup should are, how big of a retrace can one expect after an inordinately long signal candle. And that has saved several trades now. That would have been losers from filling. And so that new system I think has done a good job of staying out of these choppy waters. And then I don’t see that was trying to take a long symptoms because the A. M. A. Was turned green for like two bars. But now it’s back red again. So it won’t be looking for a more long signals here and start looking for short signals. Probably going to be a good signal. Uh huh. Uh Then we’ll finish up with currencies start with the U. S. Dollar index.
Currencies & Cryptos (U.S Dollar Index, USD/JPY/Canadian Dollar, EUR/USD, AUD/USD):
So I just mentioned to you that the all of a sudden hurts says uh that did is suggesting at least the composite line that the U. S. Dollar index isn’t gonna be able to stay up until july. It’s only going to be able to stay up until May. Uh huh. Um But I think we’re still going to get a corrective pattern, corrective pullback pattern At least to the way 4, 1 lesser degree. And that’s that’s that’s right here. At least the way four of 1 lesser degree. Mm Quite potentially more than that. So here’s the daily chart. So here’s the new zone. It’s a may june zone. The commodity line says May 10. But the nest before and heavier cycle nest isn’t until mid june. So there’s the window for the end of a wave to uh correction In the US index after a five wave down structure. Yeah. That I think is probably finished. And this movement to the upside we’re saying right here, Let me flip to a 30 minutes sharp me. Yeah, Maybe It’s 60 Minutes Chart. Here we go. Uh huh. So this has a slight overlap in it. And so it’s it’s a little difficult to on a short term chart count it uh very difficult as a matter of fact because of the size of this initial move up. But I think it’s probably wise to count this as a one two 345 wave structure. To the upside. Yeah, it’s got an overlap but uh we’re just leave it alone for now. Same career. It may be, yeah, here’s the possibility 12 1, 2, 3, 4 three. And this could have been a running flat through here. and the way four actually ended here, then you get to five waves up from there. So yeah, this could have been a running flat through this little low here and so maybe it didn’t overlap. So find waves up there and then three waves down for an A. Three waves up for a B. And then normally you look for a five wave structure to the downside and you look for it to move back to the way four of one lesser degree. So we could start the week With a little 5th way 123 45 could start the week with just maybe one day worth of finishing a five way down structure from this high. So we have one here and then in A. B. C. Here’s another possibility this is wave one here and this is three waves down for a W. three waves up for an X. and three waves down for why. And they’re not gonna be any more new loves. And that’s the bottoms in and it’s going to take off to the upside. So it either does that or does that in my opinion it either is done going down here and it goes ahead and takes off the upside. And what we end up seeing was the W. X. Y. Structure for wave two or be actually be or two and then on up or it has one little drop left in. It could go either way either way. I don’t think, I don’t think it’s uh um well embarrassed, gold dug, you know, this is only one day, this is only one day that it needs a little fifth wave up. So I’m embarrassed gold now. And that would mean I’m bullish the dollar now. And I gave you a way that the that it could keep going up. Yeah. Yeah, but you know, it could sneak down, you know, maybe an overnight session or something. Yeah, for one little fifth wave down before moving up. But then, you know, I think the dollar’s going up from there, It’s either bottomed here, it’s going to bottom just slightly lowered, maybe 89 92 and then up on the dollar. And that would mean down on gold and down on most commodities, the one commodity that seems to be running Mhm. To its own drummer right now as oil an oil does have a tendency at major turns to kind of linger and at tops I’ve noticed over the years. Uh huh. And kind of do what it’s gonna do. So there’s there’s the U. S. Dollar index. Um I’ll take these extra lines off of there. But you can see on the daily chart how subtle The egg one slats left slight move lower really would be. It’s the amount to much. Yeah. And then Hurst says up through Feb three, Then down through March 19 and you know, I’ve got all these dates on here but um Suffice it to say I’m expected to be a corrective pattern and move at least to the way four of one lesser degree. By the time we get to, let’s say, you know the way I’ve drawn it is the end may early june somewhere in there and then this is going to be such a critical juncture for everything really. Everything. This is the linchpin, This is the reason everything has been going up. You know the fact that this has been going down and with his going up, this is going to, it’s going to create this massive buying opportunity on stocks and commodities. I think around mid year timeframe for a massive wave three to the downside in the dollar, where all assets will be prompt. Almost all assets will be propped up pretty strongly. It’s the dollar significantly significantly weakens. Um I’ve got a target down in the 60’s On the US. dollar index by the time I guess that, you know, near the end of 2023 in the U. S. Dollar index. Oh, let’s see here. Mhm sentiment. The six month look back commercials are still pretty long the dollar. Also, the commercials are longer the dollar right now. In comparison with the positioning of the large specks. That that is also very bullish. I’m gonna look at the last time we had that, where the commercials were substantially longer. That would be the green line above the red line. Um, I’m all the way back to 2015 and, and it hasn’t happened in the last five years. It hasn’t happened. The spread we have right now between the commercials and large specks has not happened Since 2015. A matter of fact, III went back that far. I stopped going back and it never has happened. And at any point during the last five years where the the commercials, the green line were positioned along in the large specs were positioned. Short boy, if that isn’t, that’s a really rare signal. And we were just off at nine on the dead sea. So we we could see a move. And also all of the wild talk on propaganda, financial tv has been about how the dollar this week, it’s just going to keep getting weaker. You know, uh, bond yields are going up, they’re just gonna keep going up. And it’s like, it’s super easy to predict. Uh, trend continuation, isn’t it? Seems like what everyone wants to do. Um, Usd Jpy, looking for a bounce in this pair through mid year. There’s the way and you’ll get these screenshots, but I’m definitely bullish on Usd Jpy. And it’s just about flirting with breaking out of this, um, narrowing wedge pattern that’s been going on since March in this pair. So we’ve had this narrowing wedge moving to the outside. This is a bullish formation. No, I think you can see we’re within an eyelash of breaking out of that should be a pretty strong breakout. Uh an interest in moving faster. You’ll get all the screenshots on this, on the Canadian dollar. I’m still flirting with the idea that maybe the bottom isn’t quite in on this one. Um I’m sorry, the U. S. Dollar, cad currency paris. I’m not sure the dollar is quite finished bottoming against the Canadian dollar that would allow the oil to move higher. And so we move into the daily. And we got a real similar looking pattern here to the U. S. Dollar index of 12123434 And then 12 three for. And the question is, is this is this a done deal to the downside? It did you? No way five blew it did reach. We’re way five blues equal to wave wave one blue. But the best target is usually the the way five is equal to the net travel to one through three times .618 that hasn’t been hit yet. So you know, this looks like it might be trying to put in a little ending diagonal here. Not sure. So this is the only one that I’m, I think I’m, I’m saying, yeah, I’m actually putting my main count that it needs to make one more slight new low and then a corrective pulled back all the way and on this one into july and this one into july according to her june according to the Fc. Cycle program. And I’m going to scoot through these others Australian dollar. Yeah. And all of these dates and the FFC cycle program. All these dates. Um and in the Hurst are completely updated. Um And so I think we on the Australian dollar, we finished a clean clear five wave up structure. We’re going to get a three wave corrective pullback through mid year. It is very simple on the daily chart, even though it’s been shopping sideways. I think that it goes ahead and breaks to the downside. Out of this narrow, gradual yeah, move on. Can count completed five wave structure to the upside. It did not hit my favorite target for 1/5 wave, but we got divergence, lot of things leading me to believe that this is including hers. There’s a window up here, we’re out out of that window now and the Hurst and the FFC cycle program that that window is done and uh, should move lower in a corrective pattern through mid year. Uh looking to eventually to move back to the way four of lesser degree. Possibly it could do more than that. But for now we’ll just say it back to the way four of one lesser degree by the time it gets to mid year. And then uh Euro. I also think the Euro has finished five ways up from the March low and that we’ve begun a corrective period, There’s all the dates on the chart looking for june now for the end of the correction and back to the way four of one lesser degree. We’ve got a nice uh Our side divergence at that top and that did see was 92 at that top. It’s very likely at 18-month cycle peak, Hurst hasn’t named it that yet, but I think it will. And um I’m counting this as a 12 and we’re going to get into 345 on down here. And when did the year old go go down all the way to early March, pull back into mid april and then over here in june finish. Uh I corrected pattern back to the way four of one lesser degree. It’s the way I’ve got it And then up through July 2022 pound on. Yeah. Looking for an abc correction back to the way of four of one lancer degree by the time we get to mid year and specifically in this case through late May and uh I do believe we’ve probably seen the top tick here. Uh I think this put in an ending diagonal and the way five of the diagonal gave to the an abc up, you know, looks good. Um There’s the window for a top the her state as well as the fsc cycle day On down into this 18 month cycle trough window down in here. Looking for a move back to the way four of one lesser degree. So 1.2676. Pretty simple. Um real quick so show the swiss frank and the Bitcoin and we’ll we’ll be out of here. Yeah uh Swiss frank, you’ll get the longer term charts, but I think the swiss franc has been in a leading expanding diagonal that finally bottomed leading diagonals are often deeply retrace. So we could get a pretty deep retrace. I’ve got to move him back all the way to the wave To the .618 retrace of the entire move down. There’s all the dates and stuff on the chart, you’ll get this screen shot. You know, we we we have some divergence at this bottom, We have a really pretty clean clear one two 345 wave structure. The downside, I think that we probably have a bottom there in place and looking for possibly the wave, you know, this being a 12345. So we’d be getting into like a short term From Green Wave 3 to the upside uh imminently, something like there. And um same thing with the new Zealand no change here. I think this was a triangle, we gotta thrust of the triangle, it’s finished and we’re going to move back in a abc pattern down through mid year and then very quickly. Bitcoin. Yeah. Bitcoin. Mhm. Yeah. Um I’ve been talking about Bitcoin on this long term char but after a six year long five very clear five wave uh impulse to the upside. I don’t think of one year is enough of a correction to correct that. And for it to just move on up. So I’ve got this is three waves down for an a of an eventual expanded flat and three waves up for a be complete. Um And it slightly overshot a really good Fibonacci target for it on a similar chart As they would be waived into way be of an expanded flat. And then looking for a move down where we see of the expanded flat would be a .382 expansion off the bottom of a. So yeah, I think Bitcoin remain counters. Bitcoin’s gonna drop down below The December of 2018 Low will move all the way back to 1600. So it’s it’s currently 32,000 and I think for a second it was 41 k. And I think Bitcoin is going to drop back to 1600. Mhm. Mhm. This is this is the folly if this is correct and I think I can defend everything I just said as being perfectly normal, a normal expectation next. And also this would allow it to pull back down into mid year or slightly later um in a very normal fashion. But these moves are so huge this couldn’t possibly possibly be considered a safe haven by anyone With the brain, not with these kind of percentage moves that it can make to the upside and a downside. I mean we’ve already seen it I think a 20 move off the top. How can that be a safe haven moving that recklessly. It just can’t be safe in Bitcoin. Do not belong in the same sentence at all. C. equals a .382 expansion of A. And the swings are just too wild. So there’s the weekly and then on the daily yeah from from peak to trough so far. 31%. So we’ve actually within a few days here’s from the top those that I coined owned Bitcoin at the top tick have at least through the bottom tick so far, seen a one third draw down of all the, all of the value in Bitcoin so far. And I think it’s just scratching the surface is of what kind of downside we can see here. I think this is 1212 Mhm. And uh I haven’t updated the Hurst in in a little while on this, but it’s you know, looking for move down probably into late tributary early March snacks and it’s not done.
So that is everything I can’t thank you so much for joining me. Ah have great weekend markets. I’ve been very much appreciate your subscriptions and turned over a new leaf in a number of ways this year. And I always trying to improve myself in the way I go about my business. Um and looking forward to um seeing how this works out this year, the turning over the new leaf business. Uh I’m very hopeful that everything is going to uh really be valuable, that the work is going to show high value as we move through the year. And I do think there’s a chance coming up mid year, making a lot of money and I think that the there’s a limited opportunities to the long side over the next few years to do that. Um So it’s time to get busy. So thanks a lot for your subscriptions and uh we’ll talk to you soon. Bye bye.
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