Investing Using Elliott Wave
Elliott Wave Plus | Weekly “counts” Webinar Text
January 10, 2021
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Good morning, good afternoon, good evening wherever you may be. This is Sid from Elliott Wave Plus And this is the January 10 of 2021 edition of my weekly counts webinar. Where I go over all of my Elliott wave counts an associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stock markets, commodities currencies and bonds, Hurst cycle analysis as well as a number of other forms of technical analysis will also be considered on virtually all items before we get started. I’d like for you to be aware of my disclaimer. It’s at my website Elliott Wave Plus and you go to any page on the site and scroll to the bottom and click on the terms of service disclaimer tab there. Um and there’s the disclaimer, please go there and read at if I were to summarize it in one sentence it would be. There’s a risk of loss in all trading. Okay. Um The most important development in my opinion, um it’s underway. I mean the very most important thing is what’s happening in the U. S. Dollar. Um And so very quickly because um been looking for the end of a five wave Down structure. Oh and I’m forgetting to turn off the video of myself as we get into the charts will do that now. So it won’t be in the way. Um Here we go. And so when the U. S. Dollar index been looking for a completed five wave Down structure, this is a monthly chart from the March High in the U. S. Dollar index. And as we move in closer uh we can see what appears to be on this weekly chart a five wave Down structure. You’ll notice that I am labeling it now as complete and that we’re due for a significant bounce in the U. S. Dollar index. I showed you last week help. Uh there would be a bounce um uh imminent and that Hurst was suggesting it would last. The bounce would last until July. And um I believe we finished um finished the Downward movement. And here’s the Daily Chart 1212 34123. This is the wave three of 3 3 4. And then a five wave Down structure, one expanded flat for two and then 12345 for three Pink three. And then a quick pink four. And then um there’s a couple of targets Down here. Um one is where wave five would be The most typical .618 times the net traveled to one through 3 on a similar log chart is critical that it is similar when you’re all your Fibonacci is if you’re drawing, Fibonacci is on linear charts. They’re no good. Must be on similar charts. And um the other um Target, which I thought I had on the chart, but I don’t see it. 472 ticks Would be where way five would be equal. So they made a slight similar adjustments. Way fire would be equal to wave one in blue and that target has been surpassed. I guess the most important thing I’m seeing on this chart, it will all need to dial it Down to some entered a charts. And that is the Downward movement from this high right here. one two than 12345 for three four and the 12345. So this looks like a completed 12345 structure. To the Downside, conceive five clear waves there. And so all the subdivisions appear to be in and then look at the upward movement on this 240 minute chart, so far, one 234, 5. So yeah, not only do we have a complete five wave Down structure? Um We have we have a complete five wave up structure, so it may retrace a little bit here at the beginning of the week, back to the way four of one listener degree and then I think it’s off a powerful uh rebound and uh the reason I think we would get a powerful rebound here is purely technical, it’s all those reasons, but uh there is one technician on CNBC, they have on fast money. Once in a while, he talked about how the U. S. Dollar was, um something I three, standard deviations away from some moving average or something. And it was about as far away from uh you don’t sort of standard deviations away from norm, I guess, than has ever he’s ever seen. So it’s historic amount of stretch to the Downside. And that’s the kind of reading you would get in in the fifth wave. And the reason especially 1/5 wave of a pretty aggressive and relentless uh move. So why is it important that the U. S. Dollar index has finished five waves Down? Well if it rebounds back to the way for one lesser degree It’s a pretty significant rebound and that rebound according to her, she is going to last till July 24. It’s going to last basically through mid year. And that equates to essentially risk off in the markets. Have been talking about this for a while um That with the dollar moving up all of the um trades that are on and they’re so there there’s a lot of them yeah that are counting on a weaker and weaker dollar and they’re benefiting from a weaker dollar trades like long copper long emerging markets. Long generally commodities like gold and silver. Um In to some degree long stock market um All of those are risk on trades, their inflationary trades and yes we would be getting inflation while the U. S. Dollar index was moving Down like that but now it looks like it’s finished the pattern and we’re going to see the first half of this coming year be somewhat deflationary. Well that’s really important. Really important as we look through all the different items this week. Um Yeah as um in almost all of them that have been trending higher. I’m looking for a pullback from January through July approximately. It’s almost universal. You want to see what I think of cryptos. I’ll just show you a quick idea. I have Charles before I moved to the uh, to the, on um, I think Bitcoin is going to crash and I think it’s about topped um, I think holding on to Bitcoin or buying more Bitcoin right now it would be a huge mistake and that it has reached and slightly overshot and several, three different important Fibonacci levels and while it overshot it went parabolic movements are unsustainable. They do stretch for a very long way. Um, example, I always hold out is, you know, look at a daily charge of the way silver acted and going up into its 2011 top. It went parabolic and then one day it just started crashing and, and that’s what I think is going to happen next. Um, and then I’ll show you real and I think that, you know, the dollar turning here is going to have um, especially devastating effect on Bitcoin. Let me turn to, let me go to Sentient a trader. It just had Bitcoin chart um, on sentiment trader up noted notice that I’m looking for an 18 month cycle peak slide overthrow of this Fibonacci. Parabolic, unsustainable move and then I moved Down through late February and a rebound through late March and then more Downward movement. So this will just take a second to show this with this, this, this is just an example of the things that have been um, benefiting from this weak dollar move. I think Bitcoin is right in there with them. Um, yeah, Bitcoin is right in there with items that have been benefitting tremendously from a week, a weak dollar since March. So here’s the Hurst cycle analysis of Bitcoin very quick and let me get rid of some of the semi circles. So there’s a prognosis. Um, you know, it’s shot up into this art cycle, peek up here And looking for Downward movement here by the way. I think this is a lot more likely 18-month cycle peak than it is a 40 week or 20 weeks Down through um late February, a rebound through late May and then more Downward movement. So there’s Bitcoin. I think Bitcoins an incredibly dangerous item to be holding right now. Um because there’s no real fundamental basis for anything that it does, it’s all just writing on an emotional wave. Uh and one of the reasons I think that this move up is a B wave. Look at a longer chart from October of 2011 which is around the start of this uh data set on Bitcoin. We have five wave up structure to December of 2017. 12 Than 12345 for 345. That’s what this is where it went. Parabolic right there so it was like a 5th way and then three waves Down for a noticed that that correction only lasted one year. That correction Down through December of 2018 only lasted one year. I think that it takes longer than one year to correct A. How many years was this? 123456 year uh move to the upside and I think that this move to the upside is a corrective abc it’s a B. Wave and that there will be a devastating sea wave. And now And if the if this correction from December 2017 and I think it’s still in a correction from December 2017, it’s just in a. b. way. Um last .618. The duration Of the rally from October 2011 through December 2017. It’ll it’ll crash Down in a five wave structure Down through October of 2021. So there’s Bitcoin ah and now on to um the usual order of things. Yeah. Yeah. Uh So so I think we have a turn in the U. S. Dollar and there’s several items especially gold and silver that reacted violently to what I believe and that uh to the potential bottom in the U. S. Dollar dollar index. I’ll call it the probable bottom in the end of end of five way structure and U. S. Dollar index and gold and silver were especially violent in their reaction to that. But there are other reactions that I think are haven’t quite occurred yet but they are going to happen before we move through the next few charts. Um two announcements to make one is um Tuesday of this Tuesday evening here in midwestern us. I’ll be holding the quarterly premium plan web in oil and I’m going to invite everyone. We’ve been working hard on the al goes, I’ve showed you some of the stuff we’ve developed on the al goes and so that is coming up Tuesday night and we’ll go over lots of things there. One of them is um that we just finished our quarterly back test and Optimize and also got some stats on how they have been doing. And this is a spreadsheet, assorted will spread excel spreadsheet that I will make available to everyone that wants it no matter whether they’re premium plan subscriber, whoever so that they can, for instance, sort on the three year return on investment gain or net profit but or winning percentage, um average winter average lives or the account size required for that item. Some discount science is required of quite small, like on the micro E-minis. So that’s coming right up on Tuesday. So be looking for an invite and an email about that. Mhm. The other thing is um I have decided based on some long term Fibonacci relationships and the expectation in the U. S. Dollar. And let me let me show you once again on the U. S. Dollar. This projection of what’s going to happen with the U. S. Dollar. It’s something that um has not changed on Sentient and trader in the entire, I don’t know 10 years I’ve been using it or however long it’s been. And I want to show you I’m going to open up dollar. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. And we’ll just go with the no re pens. I don’t think it makes any difference that the one re-pin I I’m doing it isn’t really uh affecting the analysis very much. And I want to show you kind of on a longer term cycle analysis what um is what I’m expecting and all you’ve been with me a long time. But on the U. S. Dollar based on cycles. So this is both a peak and trough analysis. There’s the recent five wave Down structure 12345. And here is the projected rebound we’re going to get from what I think is low that is already in its it’s the composer line is suggesting that low might take till January 16 to bottom. But I think it’s already finished based on the subdivisions and then a rebound up through late July. But then after that look at the projected trajectory on the U. S. Dollar Down through March of 2024 on this particular example. And that’s about where a nine year cycle nest is. Um also potentially Down the nine years that that would, that’s an 18 year cycle nest. The nine year cycle nest is more like March of 2023. So Down into 2023 2024 time frame. Um And you know, quite a plunge, quite a significant plunge in the large cycle trough. This is uh this is uh important because um that will be inflationary, that will be inflationary. So because the cycle road map, it’s suggesting that yeah, we’re going to get a normal pull back here after a five wave Down structure through about July of this year, then the U. S. Dollar is going to continue to head south. That would be inflationary. That should prop up and have commodities and stocks moving higher for the next several years. Um So um put that away and because of that expectation, I’ve decided to um that the stock market probably is going to go on up over the next year or two and hit some large degree Fibonacci, is that I showed you on this chart. One is from the supercycle wave four alone in 1932, A Fibonacci that starts here and then uh Measures up to the bottom of way 4 1974 and then expects. And in this case, a very extended, obviously we’re an extended move Or extended target for the end of the 5th wave, where it would be 1.618 times the distance from the beginning of the structure through the end of way for That’s a 41,000 on the October. And then if we Are going to call 1974, the fourth wave up from the end of the wave four within the Move up from the supercycle way for law in 1932. Then we can look at FIBA 90 targets within the structure after 1974. And there’s One that kind of points out the 2000 high as the end of just the burgundy or primary wave three, not the supercycle wave three, not the cycle Way three, but the end of just the third wave up from the 1974 low would be that that was very close to the 4.236 expansion of wave one from there And then it expanded flat for way for Down through 2009. And then looking at this as the 5th wave up. Um if and so when we look for a normal burgundy fifth wave target, that would be at about 42,000. Um Okay, let me tell ya. Thanks Ron, let me get rid of that video.
S&P-500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average:
Um, we’ll be looking for um based on this being a burgundy wave three and burgundy way for up from the 1974. Low burgundy way five would hit the normal 50.618 times and then travel to one through three target at about 42,000. That hasn’t been hit yet. And so, uh, and then there’s one more black target up here where this would be black 12 and three and four. And if black wave five was that same Fibonacci relationships To the net traveled one through 3 black, that’s even higher up at 44,000. So there’s a cluster of targets up here and this is what I’m, I decided to use as my main count. And here’s the monthly chart. It’s the existence of these three Fibonacci targets up here between, you know, 41 and 40 3000, approximately. That’s one reason why I have decided to set to the targets up higher. Another for the end of the basically secular bull market, what The end of five waves up from the 2009 loads? Well, um and it’s the it’s that projection of what’s going to happen in the U. S. Dollar index. Remember in the U. S. Dollar index, had it plunging Down through at least mid 2023. So that’s around and around in here. So I think a weaker dollar will continue to propel propel assets higher for a couple more years. So this is a big change. And so my main count is it is basically inflation inflationary. So I’m more of an inflation ist, you know, for the next couple of years while the for the dollar pukes out. Yeah. And the the um alternate count is more of the, you know. Yeah. We’ve seen this inflationary movement now. We’re going to the deflationary crash is going to start now instead of a couple of years from now. So um and that is going instead of calling this an unfinished five wave structure up from the March low Of this of 2020. Calling this Just the the end of the move instead of this being a one and a 2345. This would this would just simply be the end of it. That’s essentially tractors and I’m tracking it as the alternate. So you’ll so you’ll see it um on the charts. So you’ve got the two more years of inflation concept. That’s my main count and the more immediately deflationary. That’s my alternate. No, I did show you uh where on the U. S. Dollar index I’m looking for after a five wave structure. Five wave structure Down in the U. S. dollar index since the March low of 2020. That um looking for a pullback into July and that would be a pull back to the upside neo Stahler index. And I’m looking for that same move Down and Down here in stocks and you’re going to find that this is almost universal. Now in all the charts, I’ve redone a ton of charts that should be showing you this week. And that is yes. Looking for pull back here and then on up. Um notice that both the main and the alternate are calling for that pullback Down through July next. But if you’re a deflation ist, That would be a wave one and then you get a two and then on on Down from there so that you really only get into the difference between the two ideas later this year. Mhm. Might as well just call that october if that’s going to be a end of a wave to up. October be a perfect month for that is October is often a, a turn month and notice that in both counts. I’m expecting this move. That’s next move to the Downside to be in five ways. It’s either going to be a wave one in the alternate or it’s going to be a wave sea of an expanded flat in the main count. Now we’ve moved slightly past recently, a good target on the October jones industrial average for a B way, but I still think it’s a B way. Uh Some of the biggest reasons are the, the, the sentiment is so incredibly frothy. So, the DSE numbers across the board on, just about everything you can name currencies commodities, uh, stock, the DsC, the daily cinnamon index um levels are about as high as they ever get. And on average, they probably are as high on average across the board on virtually all assets as I’ve ever seen. And so that almost always leads to at least some sort of pull back that would last for, you know, enough time to work off some of that frank before it can, even before it can continue to move higher. Um And so you might say beyond, but it’s moved past your your boy be targets said. Uh and and that is correct. It has moved past it. However, look at, look at this count on the Down of where, um a large degree of intermediate or black degree wave three top occurred in January of 2018. The correction started with a three wave move to the Downside and then give a give a three wave move to the upside Triangle in the middle of this, up move up into February of 2020. And it also overshot the best target for a B. Wave by a little bit. And it also was exhibiting some very similar characteristics in the in the for when it comes to sentiment than what we are right now. So I don’t mind this little overshoot. Um and I’m not allowing it to deter me from sticking with this count. There’s a couple of other things that I think are important that where I’m continuing to expect this to be the end of a B wave in pink. I’ve changed the degree of labelling on this so that would uh used to be blue but notes pink. Um So looking into be wave here. Mhm. And there’s a couple of reasons why um I still think it’s a kind of an overstretched be away from and one of them sentiment and the other is this move to the upside 1234 took five and a half months. If this was all the correction there was, it really wasn’t long enough in my estimation to be the end of a wave too. It didn’t it didn’t eat up enough duration. That’s that’s what another one reason. Also another reason is the price action here. Ever since early November. It really doesn’t. Um It suggests that it’s in a wave three, it suggests it’s in some kind of final move. Um And that kind of gradual grinding chopping move really isn’t, doesn’t support any kind of account that would have this as being in a wave three to the upside already. So yes, it’s overshot the target for the end of the way be by a little bit, but there’s also another target up here. So if this was a three wave Down structure through October 30 I’m looking for a three wave structure to the upside for be way. Well, it’s pretty obvious that this was likely the way they and for a while was trying to call this a diagonal. But um, So we move into the 240 minute chart. I think that on the B wave didn’t end until over here and that we had ever so slightly up slanting correction W X, Y X. Z triple zigzag through this green B. And then at 12345 that spurt to the upside and going into the close on Friday I think was the beginning of a very small degree wave five. I wouldn’t be surprised with just gaps higher to start the week and that ends up being an exhaustion gap. There is a target up here that hasn’t been hit yet at 31 5 22 and that is the 220.382 expansion off the top of Green Wave. A so we’re definitely in the zone for a top. Um and looking generally to the Downside uh through according to Hurst, The, the, the top tick of the top peak is Jan 26 of the composer line and the expectation of the bottom tick Uh an 18 month cycle trough, it would be in early August now. So from March of 2020 through August of 2021 would approximately be six months a little shorter. We’ll see people, yeah, a little shorter. And those, those have been running short like this, this trough in March was really due in June three months earlier. So these troughs have been coming in earlier and I expect that this, this trough is going to come in earlier and that’s why I’ve drawn it in June instead of in July or august and I’m not putting a lot of faith in the composite line at this time because um it’s had a hell of a hard time Determining where the 40 months and 40 week and 20 weeks cycle troughs were. And so um I think that a top tick is relatively imminent once again. So um 12345. This could even truncate. This is so so rich in in in the sentiment. Uh huh. Um On the 240 minute chart the Y. M. Contract is definitely a nosebleed territory. Now with this brown box large brown box that means that the adx on intraday chart The Adx line is over 40. So and it started to give back a little bit. Uh So 12 yeah, 3 45. Could the top tech be in maybe, um, on the daily, on the algo chart, you can see that the money flow index and the, the uh R. S. I. Yeah, are very, very high at this juncture. And um, at the point that those um, extreme overbought levels give way the often give wave to uh a substantial Down move. Here’s the last two times we had a big blob of over overbought on the money flow index slash R. Vs. RC indicator here. And so the last two times we had it was that pink stripe here and pink stripe here. And we, we already have one pink striping. We’re probably due for another one. Um, after this thing starts to roll over and move to the Downside, which I really do think it’s going to happen imminently. Um, the commercials as a percent of open interest which is the fastest acting um indication of commercials activity. We I have um all of a sudden um shot Down to the red zone now a six month look back, it looks like commercials have been enjoying this ride to the upside, but they are not an extreme territory. Um But the most important thing I think that suggests we could be at or very near it. An important topic is what the commercials as a percent of open interest of doing on the Down jones industrial average. So in the S. And P. We have the same, I’m change to that same basic outlook on the S. And P. Hurst thinks that right now on the composite line we’re going to see a top in mid 2022. I don’t know if that’s quite enough time for it to develop this structure, but um this expectation of a move Down next into mid year is almost universal on on every item based on cycle analysis. And so moving into the daily chart, you know, on on this particular wind, I’m um decided to label this as an expanding triangle. Some some counters are still counting, this is as the end of the wave three and this is A and this is enormous B Way. So here’s another example of where Elliot wave counters are, you know, allowing a large overshoot of what I would consider to be a normal target for a way be even expanded flat. So if this were the end of the wave three and here and this were a way of A in three waves, then this would be a way Be in three waves and it overshot Where it was 1.382 times the length of wave a. By quite a bit. And yet that is what the way most Elliott wave counters are counting it. And it just goes to show that in these days of trend following al goes dominating the market. Um You see some, you see some extreme behavior um at the end of babies especially. And I think that’s what we’re seeing once again right here, his slight overshoot uh for the way be, but I don’t think it just has legs going on up. Yeah. So um from the March Low 12, another nasty thing about this move to the upside is this big bump in the middle way of three, but we just have to accept it 12345 for wave one and then three waves Down for an A. And then A. W. X. Why now there’s a couple targets up here. Um looking for the end of Pink Way B. And you can see that’s been overshot by just a little bit. And there’s also an expansion where that would actually be A. Why would be equal to .618 Expansion of W. And that also has been overshot by just a slight bit at the end of the movie notice I’m label and I’ve got a different labelling system on the S. And P. As for how to label it up from the October 30 low. And I’m going to go To the to 40 minutes to show you that. So there’s the Pink be target. There’s some other targets up here. Here’s the September too high. The end of five waves up from the March Low, in my opinion, that would be wave one three wave Down structure for wave A. And then three waves up for A. W. Three waves Down for an X. And now I want to call this entire move up A three wave structure. This would be wave A. And then on the on the futures it just looks like a nice triangle for way be. And then an expanding ending diagnose up as a as a thrust Out of this triangle that ended on November 20. So one of the of the diagonal two, three of the diagonal, four of the diagonal. And in an expanding Ending Diagonal Way five must be longer. The wave three was 3 must be longer than wave one and for Must be longer than wave two and it must overlap into the price territory way too. But it can’t move below the extreme wave to all of those things are correct. And then many times way five of an expanding diagonal is that has to get quite aggressive in the final stages um in order and often ends just before It reaches a line extending from the extremes of one and 3. It very rarely will overthrow that line. And you can see in the es contract it has basically met each and every one of those characteristics and each wave is an A. B. C. So um I think uh and then this needs to be a five wave of structure from this low 12 three, maybe 121234345 Yeah. 1212 34345. Yeah all the subdivisions are there, they’re all in. I’m gonna look Down it’s like a 60 minute even a 15 And see if we can see if there’s five waves up complete here. And I would say probably not quite yet. one, two three maybe get a little Down up To complete a 45. It would just happen overnight before likely before the even the open for the week. So there’s the S. And P. And then I’m looking for a move Down next on the S. And P. Let me get back to the daily according to Hurst Down through late february, up through mid april and then Down through late July. You’ll notice that I haven’t paid that much attention to those dates. Those dates are almost certainly going to morph um As time goes along and to simplify it though, I’ve got it moving back To the wave four of 1 lesser degree in five ways. And I’ve got a bottoming early earlier than what her thinks. Mhm. So we also in this daily chart notice we’ve reached overbought territory on the R. C. But it has diverged where this be wave is it? It reached over bomb but it’s not as high as it was at the end of uh the five wave structure up from the March low. So that’s it is it is currently in a state of bearish divergence and overbought territory. Oh see what else on the daily chart I guess we’ve reached overbought territory the last couple times that’s happened was followed by some substantial Downdrafts and pretty aggressive at the start. Um We Ended the week with an 88 reading on the sea extremely high. not quite as high as the 90 reading at the end of the 5th wave up from the March low and not quite as high as the 91 reading at the end of the wave three within the fifth five wave up structure from the March low. But it’s awfully darn close. It’s within you know it’s close enough. the according to the algo. Um Yeah in the outgoing the S. And P hardly filters out any trades at all because of the sea based on back testing. It just didn’t didn’t help it or heard it. So um everything is in the overbought or oversold uh condition right now on daily chart using R. S. I. It’s oversold if it’s A three like two times bearish E. T. F. So very stretched. Um Yeah Jacob but you know Hurst had been screwing this thing up right and left. You know I think it be real smart to just look at the Fibonacci until hers can get it crap back together on this thing. Um But yeah there’s there’s a dip in late feb on Hurst but it also you know doesn’t that doesn’t project that there will have a top until jan 20. So yeah that’s a low kind of a low ebb point in the composite line, the way it’s sitting right now. Um And this this is another thing, this is 2021 in 2020. I really kind of stuck with the Hurst dates uh with religious fervor. And I’m for 2021 New Year’s resolution. I’m not going to be if an item is not following a hearse rub met very carefully, I’ll place the dates on the chart, but I’m going to stick with internal relationships and fit and uh internal wave structures and Fibonacci is a lot more this year that I have in previous years. Um So expect that moving forward, I’m not necessarily gonna draw it so it fits perfectly with the with the hearse roadmap. Um it will be there for informational purposes and sort of a sort of guideline, but um no, no more religious uh faith in in those dates specifically. Did I? I think I think they should be used as guidelines. Mhm. Mhm. Yeah. And notice on the S. And P. I had to pin The 40 weeks cycle the same location that the on the October it puts it organically. Just another example of some of the stuff that had to do lately uh with hers. That’s been pretty frustrating to be honest. So I think it has value, but it’s verbatim value. No.
NASDAQ, Russell & SOX:
NASDAQ New chart, new chart on NASDAQ. Um from the 2000 too low one and a two in black Wave three of black and in 2018 expanded. Or a running flat for way for in black. That puts the way forward. But like way for in March of this year, at the same location as it is on this Down the S. And P. Although my Fibonacci target up here is derived by not measuring from the end of black Way for measuring from the low within that fourth wave. And I think that that is good practice. Um And then a one and looking for that, we’ve seen him and expanded flat 345 Target 23 9 for a top in the NASDAQ. Um The alternate is no, this is under wave one of uh of an eventual five way structure. This is all she wrote. Um and from a sentiment perspective, I can see where a person might want to do that labelling, but it really doesn’t take into consideration. I think some large degree Fibonacci expectations now that we see from some from some major Peaks and Troughs since 2009. So I think um that NASDAQ will move much higher. Um after this low notice on the NASDAQ, it doesn’t it thinks this next correction that’s going to start this month, it’s going to last all the way to October. I doubt it. I think that we’ve got three waves Down here for an A. Three waves up for A. B. And then we’ll get to see wave Down probably into May June time frame for moving higher Notice. Up from the March 23 low 1212 34 345. Now that is one of the cleanest, You can even see you know where the wave three of three is. That’s one of the cleanest five wave up structures we have from March 23. Low Up through September two high. Also on the NASDAQ, the target the best target for away be if this is a way of a. And this is the way be still hasn’t quite been hit yet, although it’s within an eyelash of hitting it. That target is at 13 187 in the top tick so far is 13 1 13. So about 75 more NASDAQ points and none that that target would be hit. And that targets have been overshot on the S. And P. And on the doubt but not on the NASDAQ. And it has the cleanest wave structures. So three waves Down for a. And that looks like a (512 345 waves up for Nay Call this a deep be wave and then a simple five way structure. one two and then 1234543. A triangle for four terminal thrust out of a triangle for five. Here’s an here’s a closer look at it on the NQ contract this time instead of the index. Um So one two and then 12345 for three, then a triangle A. B. See D. E. Thrust out of the triangle in 12345 waves. So that’s how close um you know, it didn’t have to exactly hit these either of these targets up here. It’s overshot slightly. Uh I had the best target for Green wave see by a little bit and the internal several subdivisions there that could easily be, you know, I’m calling it within an eyelash of a of a top for now and and and then we would have a multi month move to the Downside. Really. No other information to give their here’s here’s an important piece of information. The NASDAQ closed the week with a 92 DSC reading And it was in an 84 back here any time now based on back testing on the NASDAQ, it Anytime its above 90 on the Algo on that closing day. It refuses to take a new long. So it refused to take this one because there was a red box rented. That meant that meant that the dead sea was too high. It was above the threshold for taking new long signal and it closed the week there too. So it actually is on a long signal. But it would, the sea was so high. The daily sentiment index, that’s the percentage of retail traders that are bullish when it’s that. But when the bullishness is that extreme that often marks um at least the potential top, especially when you’re near overbought territory and on the money flow versus Rs. I indicator. So we had an extremely easy reading here. And as soon as the extreme territory ended on the money flow over versus Rs I indicator. We were, you know, we were in a Down mode. Um the biggest one and that was that was from after the September too high. The biggest Downward movement we’ve seen since um martin March low for sure. Mhm. This is super interesting. The commercials are definitely heavy duty short the NASDAQ according to this. Also the large specks are longer than the commercials. Last time we had that condition was back here And here and that, you know, admittedly they didn’t amount to much Downward movement there. But that was at the end of the wave three Within the five wave of structure from March to September. And the season knows blade territory. Okay, I just moved that threshold, hang on. Yeah. Okay So he ended the week at a 92. So yeah, awfully stretched. You know, in every measure on the NASDAQ, here’s another really interesting thing. Like here’s the two times a bullish E. T. F. Q. L. D. Notice that the R. C. Is diverging into these highs and the money flow is riding below has been writing below the RSC. That is bearish. Let’s see if that same things going on on the in Q. Contract. Yeah. See the RC. It’s really been diverging ever since this high back here. You know prices making a new high but darcy is not making lower highs and the money flow is lagging the RSC that is bearish. So I’m looking forward to the beginning of a multi month corrective move Down through approximately mid year on all these stock indices. Did I show you the Russell? No. Yeah. Um Russell knew count. So this is the Y. two K. High And this is the 2002 low and labeling that is a burgundy way for now. And uh And the move up through 2007 is a black wave 1 2009. A black wave. To notice that it didn’t make a new low below The 2002 Low. And then 12345. You notice that I’ve cleaned up these charts substantially. Very easy to read and see. And then an abc flat. And um very interestingly on the russell When we look for a black wave five target now. So uh we would start at the 2000 too low and ago black 123 So we measured this Fibonacci expansion tool up through Uh the 2018 high for black wave three. And then at the 24. Then look for a Fibonacci relationship of the net traveled of zero through 3. But for Fibonacci relationships of the 5th wave to that, to that length. And that would be a .618 lengths. So they just got a target up here of 27 27 27 on the on the Russell probably take a couple of years to get there. Um And and it would need to move to that in five waves. Well this this move to the upside and the russell has already covered Over 2/3 of the ground, it needs to cover in order to get there. And I was I got to thinking about that and um I think that we this would therefore have to be wave one of an ending contracting diagonal. We look for a wave to pull back Down through mid year and then a 345 and it would be an overlapping move right. This really I think helps make sense of the price action up from the March low through the recent high in in in the russell because the russell has a big blob right in the middle of that move. And that suggests That this is a three way of structure to the upside, even though it’s extremely long, it’s a three wave structure to the upside And that’s going to be wave one of an eventual ending contracting, diagnosed each leg of a diagonal is an abc zigzag. And that really makes it uh easier to swallow what’s happening, What’s been happening on the wrestle. So on the daily chart, one, two and once again we have to label this as a third wave even though it’s got a jag in the middle of it. I hate that. But anyway, in hindsight, that’s just what we freaking have to do. 123 45 for a wave, A and then a flat A. This definitely has the look of a B. Wave here and see there’ll be a running flat and then one two 34 fox. This couple targets up here using this count one is where wave see Would be a .618 expansion off the top of wave. So that would be using this tool right here where it draws expansions off the top Of the move so that this would be considered a unit of one. And then this will be a .382 above that. And then this would be the um .618 relatively stretched for a sea wave of a. Of zigzag. This is the if And then one more uh fabulosity. Where we would look at this as Wave one and we would look for Way five. This is a new, you might write this Down, look for wave five To be 1.618 expansion off the top of wave one. And that’s that green line right here and that there’s the target zone. It was anywhere from 2049 to 2080. The top Tik 21 13. I think the Russell has just slightly overshot those two important femininity levels. All of the necessary 12345 Unknown unnecessary subdivisions are in. I think there’s a very good chance that we’ve seen a top tick in the Russell now, admittedly that’s not a very long fifth way, but given the larger degree um targets. Um and the extreme, extreme overbought territory now on the Russell As well as a divergence now between the Green three and the Green five here recently. Um I think that uh I’ve been wanting to call a top and Russell. This is a new wave count with some new Fibonacci is it’s still suggesting top tops in. Um notice that hurst thinks that there’s not only going to be a multi month correction, but the next 18 month cycle trough, That would be 18 months forward approximately from the March low is in September I think it will come in earlier than that. But I’m just looking for a correction back essentially to kind of the way four of one lesser degree sort of concept. So essentially be back to support now be the I believe that that that this would be a good support level here. I mean get rid of that black line so we see it better. Uh there and it also, many times when you have a pretty aggressive channel to the upside, it won’t be able to make it up to the top of the channel, It’s just too aggressive. It will make it back to the mid point in the channel. And that’s what that donald line is there so that it appears to be good stopping point for the russell. Um the wrestle to end the week um didn’t shoot up to new highs like the Down the S. And P. Looked like they were trying to do it only was able to recover about half or two thirds of the Down move from the previous 240 minute candle Notice on 240 minutes sharp. The adx the brown box means the adx is extreme territory and um there’s been a couple of walter browsers so it’s very stretched. The upside. The most recent walter brassard though, that that’s that red block was followed by an end of the our money flow VS. RSC indicator. It ceased to be in overbought territory and that’s what that pink line is right there. And also what basically amounts to a cell signal Or an 80 x. Uh, actually a DME cell signal on that candle. And then only a partial retrace. So I think there’s a pretty good chance that tops in on the russell. It’s the most overbought of anything right over the last 23 months now, I’ll go actually try to get along the wrestle on thursday and it got stopped out on Friday, uh huh commercials as a percent of open interest on the rest all just shot Down too heavily short. They’re also very, very close to being heavily short on the six month. Look back notice that the positioning the commercials are are pretty bearish. The the large specks are pretty bullish. That’s that’s a bearish spread. And the retail sentiment, even though we don’t have it on the russell because we use this synthetic retail sentiments just off of extreme uh territory so that that really is on when you take everything into consideration, a kind of a perfect storm that you of sentiment positioning from all, all of these parties. The commercials, large specks in retail. That suggests we are at our very near an important top, um, semiconductor index. I’m just going to show a monthly chart on this now. But um, Notice on the semiconductor index up from the 2008 Low 1, 2, 1, 2, 3 for 34 And then I’ve drawn this to match my other ideas. And the most important thing on the chart is this Fibonacci target up here. That is where wave five black will equal the most normal .618 times the length of one Through three Black. So three black was in 2018. And notice we have the very same thing going on here as we did in the russell. We have an an extended move that has eaten up already. Probably 75 or slightly more of the of the way to the target. But in my opinion it has done it in three waves And so we could get a pullback through mid year and it would chop its way higher over the next 22 years to that target of the seven on the semiconductor index of 40 72. The alternate is that it It just it just topped You know, like a one 2345. And that’s that’s all she wrote. So that’s the kind of the protector style. You know, I think we top now. But it it fact is it really hasn’t hit the femininity target that would be looking for in the semiconductor index. I am looking for a pullback through mid mid year on this though, just like everything else.
Popular Stocks (AAPL, GOOGL, FB, AMZN, MSFT, NFLX, TSLA):
I didn’t redo any of the popular stocks um, counts in order to kind of match this more bullish idea for over the next couple of years. But I did take a hard look as Apple. So I’m just going to show you apple stock and I went back and got a monthly chart for you, an apple. And so this is the, as far as this data set, As low as Apple stock ever was. And that was in August of 1982. Um, anybody remember when the, what year the back came out? It’s a pretty easy uh, year to remember. It was 1984. Just thought you’d be curious that that’s about when the Mac first appeared that little kind of unusual looking uh, initial version of the Mac that looked like a shoebox stood up on one end and with a monitoring the top half of it. But anyway. No kidding steve. Yeah, I might I have a son in law that’s a computer programmer and he’s got just about every verse of the example computer there ever was and they all still work. Uh It’s an Apple fiend. He should start a museum anyway. Um from that low In the mid 1982, I think we started Apple started off with a leading expanding diagonal for wave one And then I got a wave to Down through 2003. Mhm. This top here was in I think 99 2000 2000 2003. And then really took off 12345 I think it finished five waves up. And uh This this would be the year 2015 and then gave away four and need a five wave up structure From the way for low in mid 2016 1 two. And this looks like a really good five wave structure up here. 12345 three. So I think the top that we saw in an apple, I think on September two was actually a large degree wave three top and we’re in a correction now ample has already made an ever so slight tick of a new high recently and we’ll look into uh um but I think we’re just in a way for And with the 5th wave yet to come Um I’m best target. I have her top on Apple is 2 74. Um And so here’s here’s the cycle degree way of low in May of 2016, one in burgundy to in burgundy and then 12 345 in Burgundy. I think it’s probably just the end of 5th way I am forgiving this ever so slight invalidation and um and then I’m looking for an expanded flat next in this move to the upside could be done hurts, doesn’t think it finishes until february, but if we’re if we’re looking at expanded flat in the NASDAQ and other items, I think this is likely to give us a sea wave Down next. What can you give us a sea wave Down? How big of a sea wave could it be? Well, if the top of Black way B. Is in in a pretty good target would be where wave see black was 1.618 on this, initially here um The length of the wave a Down Hers thinks it doesn’t bottom until September three. I think it’s likely to bottom earlier than that talked about that and and then it would have a needed fifth wave up. So I’m looking for a five way structure to the Downside. It may have already started Um Down to $86 on on Apple About mid-year and then the top target of 269. So it very well could be that we have one more magnificent um profitable leg to the upside in apple. Mhm. That would put up a 200 Plus return over about a year’s time. So um yeah, so I’m labeling this with a large degree wave three labeling labeling this Down as wave a of a expanded flat. And this is potentially the end on December 29 of it wave B of an expanded flat. And that will be getting started already with a move to the Downside. So Apple is really the only stock that I did a lot of work on um uh as far as What’s happening here is the 240 minute chart of Apple. And you can see that it got the Brown box extremely oversight with walter Brassard inside of the box. That’s Certainly a sign on these 240 minute 80 x plus charts uh that it’s best to uh take profits get out of a long position. I’m just a quick poll. We’ve been including uh for premium plan members The 80 x 240 minute, the 240 minute 80 x plus charts on the October, the S and P. The Russell and the NASDAQ. And I’m curious if any of you are finding these of any value if you’re even looking at them. So just a quick poll, if you’re a premium plan member, Ron says yes, you like some. I don’t know if there’s any other premiums in the room? Probably are. Um, I don’t know if you’re Able to use these 240 minute charts. Um yeah, that we’ve been including with the nightly reports. Well, I find them to be particularly helpful, Juca says yes. So this is something we could expand and add more. You know, I’ve just been putting men on the major US stock indices, but we could add like gold, silver bonds and you know, the U. S. Dollar index, the euro. Um, If if I get a positive enough response, Jack says, he looks at him every day. That’s great. Um Okay, well, I think we’ll probably expand that to include all four major U. S. Items. Probably uh like A. T. L. T. Bonds, silver, gold oil, U. S. Dollar index, Euro. And Uh, and end up with maybe, you know, 10 or 10 or 12 of those that will throw in a folder every night. Uh, it can definitely assist in timing. Um, but remember on the, on the 80 x On the 240 minute charts, I’m setting the threshold. Um, I’m sending the threshold at 40. So if the adx is above 40, You get the brown box on the 240 minutes intraday charts. Whereas on the regular trend charts, the daily trend charts, I’m setting that threshold at 60 at 60. The idea being if you’re buying hold guy, you want to look at the dailies. If you’re more of a traitor of this, a swing trader, for instance, You know, the the that information on 240 minute might be a value. It is interesting on Apple that, you know, this this chart goes back to um like the last brown box of any consequence that I see besides this one. Was this one right here at the low Around September 22. And so it that’s been pretty helpful frankly. Um um Yeah, I’ll have to try to rework my concept on google if I’m going to be more um and more bullish. The problem I have with google is uh I’m kind of saw this potential ending diagonal thing. Um So I haven’t reworked my counts on these yet. I spent I reworked a lot of, a lot of counts in order to incorporate this idea that we’ve got a couple more years of upside in these markets. And I had I did Apple this week and I’ll gradually start adding some of the other major stocks like google and see if I can conceptually come up with a rib account. I know thing constitutes at least 25 of S. & P. And that percentage may actually be higher now. Um There is a fang index ticker. Um But I haven’t uh if anybody knows what that is, I’m really happy to add that. Um And if you if you can figure it out, I haven’t been able to find it yet inside of my trade navigator feed. So if anybody knows the ticker said well I could look at for just just to track the fangs as a group. That might be really a good thing to add. If someone would be email me that ticker if they can find it. Um Vicks moving on Vicks is uh Down near the the lower Bollinger now. Again, it is interesting that the Vicks um actually the low pick on the on the vics for the year Was on all on November 27. So that low in the vics is still holding even though we’ve we’ve we uh are at all time highs, see if there’s anything else of value that I can show you here on this, on set of screens, Here’s one thing. So, um, the money flow versus rs I indicator did pinpoint that November. Yeah, December nine low in the Vicks. Um and um, and now the daily cinnamon index just hit Extreme Single Digit Territory & eight. That is a super duper loan number. Especially considering that, um, this isn’t the low in this for the year. I think that’s pretty meaningful then to hit a dc number that low and looking back, It just hasn’t happened very often. We got a dead sea of eight right here. And that was definitely followed by some upward movement in the Vicks. The see right here was a nine that was kind of a little early as far as, but there wasn’t much more Downward movement and then there was some upward movements in the Vicks on that off that came along pretty soon offer that too. So that’s pretty meaningful on C of eight on the vics, commercials are along the vics right now, whereas the large specks are short, the vics that is also bullish the Vicks. Um this is interesting pinpoints several all time highs and when they occur on this chart, this is a 13 day exponential moving average of the nyc advance decline ratios. So there is a on July 26- 2019. The all time high actually occurred here. And you can see that was after a divergence coming Down out of the resistance February 19, an all time high right there. And that came after a divergence moving Down out of what I call the resistance. So um September two there, there was the all time high there and that was after a divergence moving Down out of the resistance zone. And now we have it once again where we were slightly above the distance zone recently in late November. And now we have a new all time high and there’s a pretty decent sized divergence going into that hot. Uh huh. That uh those all time highs um several, you know, Really February 19 all time high. September two all time. They were followed by some plunges, Especially the February 191. Uh The put call ratio is staying quite quite low. Um This is a week. The black line here is a weekly close chart and you can see when the, when the, as the market has continued to move higher off of the March low, the number of puts being held has been coming off. There have been, you know, that means there’s less and less hedging, Less and less hedging. Um This is maybe a more interesting chart and this is the discolored line here. It’s a 10 day simple moving average of the CBO a total put to call ratio And it actually bottomed and started to turn green all the way back in December 10. But now we have another bottom and it’s starting to turn green On December 31. So really uh this this is indicating that we’re probably this is giving us an early warning that we have a potential imminent correction in my opinion. So as soon as and it did the same thing back in January February, noticed that January 20 for it turned green but is if you recall back in January February of last year, the market kind of stayed up, stayed up, stayed up and made another slight new high by the time we got into February and but this indicator made a higher low at that time and this disappears to potentially be the case here as well. We had a higher low on the indicator and this really has the look of something that’s ready to take off to the upside and kind of a wave three kind of idea similar to what we got back last February. Moving on. So as we move through uh I’d be surprised if there was anything moving forward that wasn’t expecting a correction, an imminent correction Down into mid year. Uh Let’s look at what is lit, I don’t even remember. Um Okay the transports new count. Um there’s the primary or burgundy wave three high in 1998. A Choppy Double Zigzag through March of 2003. There’s the end of berg anyway, four and then a five wave up structure through 2000 and May of 2000 and eight. For way one, A way to March of 2009. Very simplified. Look to these charts. 1 2345 wave up structure through January of 2018. An abc corrective structure, a flat might have been a combination, might have been a W X. Y as well Down through the March Low. Calling that away for low. The transports did not cross over into the price territory of Wave one at that time. and looking for five wave of structure now Um through probably late 2022. Mm. Mhm. So 12345 wave structure. To the upside is what I’m expecting in the main account. Looking for a pullback through the middle of way to notice the Fibonacci target That it’s starting in the year in March of 2003. Low. And taking the distance of one through 3 black And looking for the move up from the end of way for black to be .618 times that distance on a similar chart. 19523 is the target still. This looks like I’m Pretty long wave one Looking for a 234 up to the upside. Uh And I don’t think I yeah, Just keeping monthly on that one. Um same thing. So looking for a pullback through mid year and then more upside same thing with the October jones utilities. I think the 2002 low was the way for burgundy low and then one in black, two in black, three in black Foreign black need five waves up. There’s Fibonacci targets up here around 1170. Within the five waves up we probably have wave one complete looking for a pullback for wave 22 through mid year before we move higher Through late 2022. Now oil and in oil stocks kind of move to their own um be to their own drum. But on the, on the very short term I’m looking for an expanded flat Here on this pullback and Hurst continues to push this date out of when this low is expected this way too low. I’d look at February 23 Before moving up through April 10. I have a main end, an alternate on this. The mean is still quite bullish of this being a one in blue, two in blue and then a one in pink And then a two in pink in mid July. And then it would just keep then it would really be okay. Very aggressive to the upside in Wave three probably see the oil start moving. If that was going to be correct, we would start about mid years seeing oil really start to rally in a way three character to the upside. Um The alternate is that is still in a bearish pattern. Um From June of 2014 this is wave one of an expanding diagonal, two of an expanding dying. All three wave moved Down for three of an expanding tiger. And we’d get a way for of an expanding diagnosed and if Hurst of of any assistance at all that way forward. Top in May of 2022 approximately. And then there would be 1/5 wave Down and expanding diagonal still. Um both of those have the same road map between now and mid year. And that is that on this particular item looking for a pullback through late February. But then I think we get an upshot, this would be one of the stronger items in the stock market, Up through April 10 or so. Then the pullback into July 14. And then either the rip run major rally to the upside or something milder. That does not take out The May five high. But in the short term there’s there’s the road map, here’s a little closer look at what’s going on. Um I think there’s a good chance that oil has not stopped finished going up yet. That that this Excel may kind of bucked the trend and stay up and move a little higher while some of the other industries moved Down over the next uh week. And um right now it looks like we have a double top and excellently. But I think it’s in a B wave. I think this is a B wave to the upside. And then do we get a sea wave Down and the next um you know, rather than buying and here and looking for more upside here, I’d be taking profits and then look to buy it substantially lower in late of February. Um Most of the indicators are looking rather toppy to be honesty with you on excel, but I think it could move a little higher because I I changed the count on oil to allow for a bit more upside. The Saudis came out and announced that they were going to cut production and price responded pretty strongly to the upside. Um The of course they’re liars and the opec and and and the oil world is full of liars, Russia, Iran et cetera et cetera. And um they often make commitments on on production and rarely actually follow through with them. So in a way it was, it came at a critical moment that news release tube that assisted um oil introducing it a bit higher. But many times those things don’t have real strong legs to them. Um, there’s kind of a knee jerk response to the upside. Then everyone realizes that there remembers that they’re liars at every turn. Still. Her says Excel, they won’t stop until January 14. Uh, let’s see here, you’re. Excel has moved up And we’ve got a brown box on 240 minutes sharp, but we don’t have a Walter Brexit yet, it looks like we’re going to get one pretty soon, but we don’t have it yet. So the brown box is a warning. The walter walter brassard inside a brown box then that is trouble. That that’s where I think you want to get out now, once in a while you get one of those early and I’m like, like happened right here and and right here and unfortunately in hindsight, uh those would have missed out on some of the move there. Um And when that happens, you’re probably in a third wave, but you can see the we’re definitely in overbought territory on the indicators and I’m going to see a walter breads, her cross over here pretty soon. Um I really didn’t spend a lot of time on anything except the major, major charts here is the way I’ve um I’m going to roll with KBB banking. So banking has been very strong recently on the back of higher interest rates but From the 2009 low. Um The main count is now that we’re in an extending expanding diet. Also we’re in 1/5 wave up from a large degree way for March of 2009. And it started with the way one in A two and then the wave three top occurred in March of 2018 of an expanding Ending diet. And then we got a three wave structure to the Downside for way four. And even though this price action has been very corrective, the price action inside the diagonal can be corrective. And so we’re looking higher into the first quarter Around March of 2022 according to Hurst. And if we have five Black or to be equal to wave three black times, The net traveled one through three back black times 1.618 that targets way up here at 67. Um, but as is almost virtually always the case, uh, here, the expectation is that we’re going to get a pullback through mid year and uh, it looks like an abc for a w, an abc for an X. And then a five wave structure, 12345 That looks like that very likely completed last week as an A and looking for a way be pulled back. There’s a, a gap right here that might need to fill And then I move up into March of 2022. So I’m looking for a pullback through mid year on banking as well. Here’s a daily chart of the same thing. Um, Three waves up for a W three waves Down for an X and then one, two, three Running flat for four, Move up for five. I think that if that isn’t finished going up is very, very close. You can see how deeply overbought it is. And here’s this, here’s the thing to look at on K B E on this daily chart on this new RNC versus I’m sorry, money flow index versus RS I indicator when you get the darker colors in this case dark red. That means that the trouble light is definitely not lit brightly. Um and that means that the R. C. Is an overbought territory, but the money flow index, the blue line is lagging it substantially. So the money flow index is basically an RC that can also considers volume. So in this daily chart, the money flow index is lagging far. See that is a major trouble sign And that’s why I’m one of the reasons why I’m perfectly willing to call the top tick as being in on the banking for now. After a really, really clear five wave structure to the upside, looking for a pullback in three waves, Maybe back to this .618 Around 33 75 before it moves higher. Um I don’t have Also in the 240 minutes on the KB notice the brown box which are fairly rare in the banking. It’s rare that banking gets such a strong move that it’s uh that it pushes the ADX line into extreme territory, but it did there on Friday and that was followed by a red candle and then walter breath shirt. This also is on the very short term suggesting we may have a top in place.
I really didn’t do any major reworks on some of these. I would call them adjunct wow sectors. Yeah, no, these counts are going to be pretty darn similar to what I had before. I’ll include them in the screenshots. Um It is interesting how weak real estate has been recently, possibly because of the higher interest rates. Wouldn’t be surprised homebuilders uh Looking for the same thing I’ve been looking for. Um I did change the retail roadmap last week Down on the retailer E. T. F. Uh Want you to notice then I’m expecting the same thing here as I am on the wrestle. And that is there’s a large degree Fibonacci target that’s still higher and hasn’t been hit yet. But the move up here has been so aggressive that um it’s likely because I’m needing a five wave of structure that probably didn’t talk for a couple of years. This is very likely wave one of an unfinished contracting ending diagonal. And it counts really well that way 12345 for a. And then b. 123 Running flat for 45. And it topped exactly where we see. We’re using, that labelling would equal where they I mean to the tick. Uh So we could have a top on um retail, looking for a pullback through mid year And then for it to work its way higher and eventually top at 86 86. But it’s it’s it’s 60 eight right now, so that’s not that far away. So due to the extended nature of wave one, up from the March 2002 low 2020 low, this ending contracting diagram power could be underway in a lot of items more than just the russell and the and the XRT. These items that have had really extreme moves and are already nearing um a large degree Fibonacci target with the March Low being away, a large degree of way for low and looking for a way five target up here on those items. This in my opinion is much more likely to be away one of an ending contracting diagonal. Um Each leg, you know, I’ve got a pretty serious pullback moving Down through mid year here Because of that, because each leg of a diagonal typically retraces between 66 and 81%. I haven’t drawn it that way, but so, but he’s like you were dying all can retraced pretty deeply. Um, the shippers at least based on the ball to multi dry index um have been doing well to the upside Once again, I haven’t looked at any individual shippers this week. Don’t intend to take a bunch of time doing that, but I’ll show you the Baltic dry index, both the weekly and a daily and here’s the weekly and it really does appear that the wave to bottom is in look at this nice rally up out here. So, um, you know, this count, I think instead of being correct, I think that wave two bottoms in, we’re in a wave three now, it could go up and Down and wait one and A two. But right now it’s rallying pretty strongly. Here’s the daily chart. The black line is that if the Baltic dry index and you can see it’s been moving moving up pretty strongly although it’s getting pretty uh overbought using all of the on the short term non daily on all of the majors that I put on the chart.
Mining etfs. I think the U. S. Dollar has bottomed in, it really showed up heavy duty um In the Precious Metal Space 1st. Um And this is what I’ve been warning everyone about. It’s like I don’t have I don’t have confidence that this thing has big legs to the upside out of this low, like virtually everyone on the internet is saying they wanted to say that this low in late November was was the end of although maybe a wave to or way for and we’re gonna start screaming higher. But it it just really didn’t turn out that way. And in the G. D. X. I think there’s a really really strong clue of why that didn’t happen. And that that is there’s a little triangle that occurred in the middle of this move to the upside. Mhm. And so my main count is still intact here. And that is that we’re uh moving Down in a triple zigzag and uh that’s an A. B. C. For W. Did an abc for next wave In five ways Down for Nay. And a triangle for B. Terminal thrust for triangle over. See that’s the end of the baby. And now looking for a five wave structure to the Downside to complete actually in the in the G. D. X. A double zigzag Hurst is now projecting the bottom date is January 28. Here’s something I’d like for you to consider and that is let’s say that everything else is due to bottom let’s say in June. Okay so looking for this pullback in a lot of stocks. Matter of fact, I think the U. S. Dollar index isn’t going to finish its correction until July. So is it possible that this correction could extend that far after All right now at least in the G. D. X. It’s only um I’m only projecting a double zigzag. Could it turn into a triple zigzag? I want you to think about this because it seems to me that that would be pretty possible if the dollar is going to continue its correction until July projected. So. Mhm. That could it be that that um the miners really can’t take off substantially until then if so, You know, if this is going to move up into May 25 like this, I think it would be prudent if this count is correct To project that the move up through May 25 um might be A wave another wave one and then we get a deep pull back for the wave too. Here remember these gold stocks they have a tendency and have lately to really move with with the rest of the market that at least they are affected bye. The rest of stocks, you know when, when, when the stock market is during a selloff phase, a lot of times they are too. And so I think it’s worth considering that this is the way the miners are gonna roll, that they just won’t be able to really catch fire until mid year. But something like that does that mean that um want to wait to buy in this sector until July? You know there would be 11 way to do it. But on the chance that This wave 1 to the upside might be pretty strong. And I still think um a person could do some buying in this sector late in January but look to get out in May and look for another dip. In other words it’s it’s still it’s still a timing deal. And um I would be extremely shocked if the U. S. Dollar index didn’t push this item around. Yeah substantially. It didn’t have a major effect on it and if it isn’t going to bother them until uh if the U. S. Dollar index isn’t gonna top or finish it’s correction or its wave to correction to the upside until July. Then it just doesn’t make sense that this would just take off and rip door to the upside until then um The dollars up only initially through March with. Yeah, so I’m trying to make sense of this because I know I’ve got a lot of mining sectors, investors as subscribers and I’m doing everything possible to um come up with a roadmap. That makes sense for you and I know it’s been frustrating lately to watch the U. S. Dollar to continue to move Down and but gold topped in early august and has been scrubbing its way to the Downside. It wasn’t able to really take advantage of the weaker dollar when it had an opportunity to a major opportunity to. That’s that’s been odd in I know frustrating for the group but um so far I got to say this, this hurst road map on here, it’s been working really well. I had, I had one subscriber email me, it’s just like we did don’t you think that silver is moved up in five waves here over the last month? And and we’ll get to silver later and it does to the naked eye look like five ways, but nothing else in the sector looked like five waves up at least prices. Middle GDX certainly didn’t and gold didn’t and therefore I felt like it was probably just the end of another X wave and we still had a leg Down and the very, you know silver was an extremely high, I’d see the dollar was an extremely low dc and it just didn’t seem like the right time. And the very next very next day after I answered that email. Skulled Gold was Down like $75 and lot of carnage. Um And then uh yeah it’s my my main concern and steve I know there’s been a select bit of strength here and there, especially in copper. But my main concern was that five ways Down was going to complete the U. S. Dollar index. And it was going to be very difficult for anything in the metal sector to really be strong until the U. S. Dollar index correction was over. That’s still convinced of that and you know I know some of you might have wanted to catch some of this move up here and um um probably all pissed off about it but and I know this one subscriber well he sure sounded like he was pissed pissed that he wouldn’t and I don’t know if he’s pissed because I was yeah we’re not bullish or what but I will say this um Right now right now with the stuff that that happened at the capital and everything uh social mood is I think extremely negative. It’s as negative as I’ve can ever recall it being. And um I even see it in, you know, some of the emails I get from subscribers and as an l as alia titian, I think it’s important to keep that in mind that um the social, the negative social mood could make for some extreme emotional responses to things like the fear of missing out. You know, could cause you to get more pissed off than usual. And, you know, I’m I think it’s a person can take a lesson from that and understand that yeah, the social mood is extremely negative and I’m just not. I’m going to observe that. That’s what’s going on and try to keep it from spilling over into my own law emotions. Um, yeah, just move up in GDX obviously overlapping corrective looking uh um the daily trend following to be on. We just saw a sell signal offer the ADX on the daily chart. I didn’t do a lot of updates here, but I did do an update on uh took a look at Baruch. Mhm. Um you know, if you were a a large cap investor in the gold space, there’s really been nothing, nothing good been happening. It’s still nothing good really going on. That this attempted rally here didn’t amount to a hill of beans. And frankly, my roadmap on this thing has really been working well so far. And then same thing with Newmont. Yeah, it just, you know, this upward movement appears to have failed. And um I think we’re moving Down to finish a triple zigzag and just be aware that um you know, I just looked at the road map on Newmont um, hurst and it has a lot of data on it and I don’t know if it’s got screwed up uh phasing or what but it’s projecting The new moon kind of stays up through March 26 and then moves Down into pretty strongly into an 18 month cycle trough. Do in early august that would kind of fit with this idea that we’re going to get a pullback in stocks and virtually everything through mid year because the U. S. Dollar index is going to be moving up. So um I think it’s time to be extremely conservative about what you’re doing in this space. Um I certainly don’t think it’s time to buy right here and well I’ll let you know when I think it is going to be time to buy. And it’s it may not be to mid year, it’s my warning. You know, Although we we’ve been seeing some some ups and Downs. but boy, that Newmont chart really says it all, they haven’t amounted but too much at all.
Markets outside the U.S:
As for the dax and the european indices. Mhm. Uh This is a road map I came up with uh a week or two ago that does allow for the dax to move up and hit a large cycle. Um Are large Fibonacci target, large degree Fibonacci targeted 18 3 71 within a couple of years. And it is labeling the March Low is a way for low and it thinks it’s the protection is that it’s going to do the same thing as the U. S. Indices. And that is it’s going to move up in five ways from March Low. And so far all we have is a five wave of structure. Um I’ve got the five wave up structure ending on the dax July 24 and then a a three wave wave a and now we’re getting a three way way be and we’re definitely in the target zone for um for a top, we’re right in between the two best Fibonacci targets for a top Where Wave B would be equal to wave a times 1.236 in 1.382. So I think we are at a wave be top, We’re going to move Down next through mid year. Uh to about 11,000. Here’s a closer look at it on daily. So one 23 for actually, I’m got this a little different of this, the way flu uh the end of five waves being being in early September, so maybe I need to change this back here, we do there and there and that there we go. Fibonacci is will be the same. And we’ve got this is uh is a diagonal For a black wave five, right? And you can see it’s coming very, very close now to the top of the to a good target for away beat. So 12345 for one A B. C. For two. I’m sorry, abc for a of a flat than an A. B. C. For wave B. Of a flat. Now this one is a little easier to count. Then, for instance, October jones. I can see this as a potential running flat or basically a flat Through December 14. And then this looks like an ending contracting diagonal. Probably the top pick is in and it fell just slight slightly short of the best target for a B. Wave in black. And then looking for five wave Down structure for a sea wave to finish an expanded flat And I’ve got it as a pretty deep move all the way back to the .618 retrace of the initial five wave up structure. So that would be Down through mid-year. Hurst says that Down to July one and then on up notice that I’ve put a couple of dates on the way Down. That hearse is currently suggesting in the date for the top. But I’m paying very little attention to those. The one I’m paying a little more attention to is the 18 month cycle trough date. This do. But I’m pulling a little bit forward of that because I’ve just seen that too many times where Those 18 month cycles? Uh huh. Troughs come in early in stock market. Mm I’m gonna sip on this coffee, hang on, it’s hard. Okay. Um 40 footsies been rallying nicely but I think it’s once again a B wave. And as we move to the weekly chart we can see that the same thing going on In the footsie is that the move up? Even though it’s quite aggressive I think is a b. Wave and it’s come very close to hitting a target where it is 1.382 times the length of wave a. There’s a wave A. That looks corrective And then this be waves up in three waves. And I think it’s gonna give way to a five wave structure design. So we’re gonna have us pretty deep move to the Downside on the footsie. Next here’s a closer look at it to be honest, I’m I’m not sure how to count this. Move up A. Three as a. Five. It could be a. three. If this is a three way of move up then then this A. B. C. Expanded flat would need to come Down pretty close to the March low within it. And have to, We have to see a 90 retrace of this black wave. A. I’ve got a drawn pretty close to that. But this looks this move to the upside. It’s hard to say what it is, but it does look like an A. B. C. And now it’s closed in on this target where wait where it would be the top of the baby and prices substantially higher than it was here. But the R. S. I. Showing divergence, let’s see here on to Asia Canada and Australia. And if you are a Canadian or an Australian and you have high interest in those um stock markets. You I think hopefully appreciate that. I’ve spent a lot of extra time on those this week getting those kind of aligned with what I’m expecting in so many other items on the Hang sang haven’t changed this, this um count in over a decade really much. Uh And that is um that It’s in an ending expanding diagonal starting in 1998. 1234. And then weigh five would need to be in A. In A B. And a C. And that we likely gotta try either triangle or or Running flat for the end of way be Down here in 2016, Followed by um away one to the upside and a. two. So I think we’re in wave three to the upside on the hang saying. But it’s been very uh from that black wave too low. It’s been very choppy But it finally showed a five wave structure. It has showed us a five wave structure to the upside for the Hang saying here in the most recent move up out of the late September low. So here’s the daily chart on how I’m counting The move up from black wave to low one and then a W. Xy combination correction for wave two And then 12345 wave structure. That would be another wave one. And then I think the pullback we get through mid year will be another wave too. So this is basically allowing for the low in the mid year low to be a very important low in the hang saying where the hang seng would just take off like a rocket out of there and the way three of three at the same time as around the same time as I’m expecting a the end of the correction in the U. S. Dollar index in the beginning of a plunge in the U. S. Dollar index. So there’s the Hang Sang looking for a corrective pullback through May June time frame. That’s essentially the same thing I’m expecting on E. M. E. M. Has been very strong. But if you look at the internal wave structure up from the March low now, well there’s a one and two Down here and then a three and a four and now weigh five has tagged The best target for the end of way five where it’s .618 times Net traveled one through 3. Pink. So I think we’re at at a turning point in the E. M. And looking forward to move back to away for one lesser degree by mid year And then rally strongly in a way of three of 3 to the upside. Okay. Uh we’re definitely over uh bought here And within this 5th wave up 12345 looks looks pretty clean and clear. Mhm. Certainly has been strong to the upside but it’s extremely overbought on the short term. Yeah. Um The Algo has caught this good portion of this 5th wave to the upside and um it’s likely to stay long until it gets a crossover of the walter Brassard. It’s moving average that it’s so it let’s see how the first couple of days this week work. But as soon as we get a crossover of these two items right here it’ll exit this long trade. And you can see that the walter breast, it started sloping to the Downside now. So um this last three days of upper movement has really been against has been diverging against against the walter Brassard direction. Um shanghai composite. I’m looking for this most recent rise to be a B. Wave and for it to turn around and move Down in a sea wave through mid year um Hurst currently thinks it’s going to take longer through October, but if their bottoms, It would be an 18 month cycle trough if it bottoms three months early. Uh that was, was three months before October around July or something. Um So looking for a significant and investable trough in the chinese stock market about mid year for Wave three of three rise to the upside Nikkei. I’m just keeping a monthly chart on this now. But this shows what I think is going on in the Nikkei 123 And instead of the wave for here, a Kind of a running flat concept for a wave 4th and through the March low. Yeah. And and then looking for 1/5 wave up And the best target for the end of the 5th wave up Is 30- 150 in the Nikkei. That’s where wave five would equal The net traveled one through 3 burgundy times .618. And you can see that the Nikkei has been screaming higher recently. And so I think that we have a similar thing going on here that we had going on. And then I showed you in the russell and the retailers E. T. F. And that is that this this move to the upside has already eaten up a tremendous amount of the real estate to the target. And it’s done so in what looks like a three wave structure. And so I’m going to call this way one of an ending contracting diagonal looking for a pretty deep pull back through mid year. But for it to generally work its way higher to through uh, for the next year and a half or so, 2 30- 150. Still looking for that deep pull back Canadian stock market um on the Canadian stock market. I’ve on the long term can I’ve I’ve had something similar showing here. Two um The hank sang and that there’s I’m looking for But it’s probably in that same ending expanding diagonal starting at the 1998 low which is doesn’t even show on this chart. And I’ll have enough data on. So there is one of the diagram 23 and four. So way for the diagram was in the first quarter of 2000 and nine and everything that’s happening since then is an abc zigzag unfinished to complete a very very large expanding diagonal. So um we’ll expand this back out here. So I’m looking for a burgundy A. B. C. To finish the diagnose, so there’s burgundy A. And um at this juncture because way fives of expanding diagonals are the most aggressive of the megaphone pattern. And the wave see Within way five of an expanding diagonal is a very strong move. Then I said to target where wave see Burgundy would be a .618 expansion of wave a burgundy. That would be that initial move up from the 2009 Low. But notice that looks like a three wave structure. Doesn’t it must not have been though, must not have been, there must have been one and two Down low Down there. And that was very likely if I’ve had to be five because we’re looking at it. The six act um A burgundy A. B. See six eggs. So Up through the March of 2011 high for wave A burgundy. And and then really an amazing structure that it’s I’m calling it a. B. Wave. Uh So there would be a wave A. To the Downside in black. And then the W. X. Y. X. Z. For wave B. In black. And you might say to yourself, was was that a how big was that way be? Well it was big, it was well in excess black b of 1.382 times the length of wave a. But at this juncture I just don’t think I have any choice but to go ahead and call it that because um we have a new home. Do we know? Yeah we have a new new home. So the March Low must have been a way be burgundy low. And now looking for five waves up from the March Low to this target. And I I think that um like in so many items, the initial move up through early September was the end of five ways up for wave one in black. And they were getting an expanded flat for wave two and here’s another giant be wave overshoot. Yeah. Um of a of a typical target. Probably because um of that, you know, but surprise announcement came from out of Saudi Arabia that they’re going to cut production. Therefore prices should go up. We’ll see if that’s true. But many times it’s not. So this could either be an over beat over overshoot for a way of B and then I pull back through mid year or This could be a one two 12 I doubt that. And the reason is once again how close, how far we’ve traveled towards this target 21 400 on the Canadian stock market. We’re already, you know, well, probably passed two thirds away there of the March Low and everything else has been looking for a pullback through mid year. So in the main count, I’m still wanting to call this A. B way and a pullback for wife. See, just to just to be a pretty dang long be wave Australian stock market. Another item where I really had to do some major head scratching and kind of start from scratch on this. I am kind of thinking that the 2000 low, 2007 high in the Australian stock market was a large degree top. That’s pretty much a no brainer and and that we moved Down in three ways for wave A. So there’s there’s a five wave Down structure for A. And B. And then 12345 then really is quite a striking three wave, corrective move. And um but the reason I’m labeling that A wave A. Okay and not a way for a large degree way for is because the upper movement after that is corrective and overlapping. I got this Over major overlap here and then we had this another major dip over here. So I think the upward movement in the in this Australian stock market since 2009 has been corrective and is likely in A. B. Wave and it can it can certainly move higher in this be wave. Um Because if this is is a unit of one, then the wave be target. Uh Normal way be target, where will be will be 1.382 times the length of his way up here at 93 71 on the Canadian stock market. So it’s substantially higher. This is the inflationary. You know, this is definitely making a commitment to making a commitment toward inflation essentially at least for the next year or two. And so I’m counting up from the March 2000 and eight and 2000 and nine low A B C for a W. Black and then an X wave than an abc for a Y wave and then a very quick X wave and this would be a Z wave up and it would need to be a zigzag and a B C zigzag. And so far To the upside what it looks like to me on the Australian market is a 12 three triangle for four and then 1234 And it’s putting in it’s a small degree fifth wave within the fifth wave. Now probably not quite done going up yet, But close there there is a target of here, there’s you know, a fair amount higher at 74 33 that it could be seeking. But because I’m expecting a kind of a top in, in almost everything else and then a pull back to the way for of one lesser degree in this case, through mid year, I think we’re getting getting awfully close to the top in the ASX and I moved Down Through mid-year for way be and then, and then it’s a rip roaring in final wave c move up all the way to 93 71 inflation. So I’ve redone a lot of these counts that they all fit together a lot better I think. And um another example would be the Nifty 50 um on on the nifty, I think it has reached a Fibonacci target for the end of the, of the of a five wave up structure from the March low and slightly overshot it. Now There could be just a way one and then we get a pullback through mid year, next back to the way four of one lesser degree for it moves higher. So I think we’re going to get a sharp pullback through the mid year on virtually all these items. And then after that yes they could move substantially higher. Um brazil looking for a pullback through mid year before moving substantially higher. Um These emerging markets should really fire up my major move to the upside once the U. S. Dollar finishes this correction, a correction after you know the five wave Down structure as we I think likely completed last week has done well. You’re welcome Greg. And uh so I think those on renewed simplified cleaned up charts that I think would be beneficial and more accurate moving forward. Yeah, let’s move on, shall we too. Uh huh. You know steve I just saw your request for S. I. L. J. But I I didn’t do any updates on S. L. S. I. L. J. And I. This week. And so I’m I didn’t want to put the chart up since I didn’t touch it at all or do any new analysis on it.
Moving on to bonds. I think this move up that we’ve seen lately in junk bonds is likely to be wave um And that we’re going to move Down next through mid year and then uh junk bonds I think are are going to take off to the upside more, more bullishness. Um I’ve been counting this is ending contracting Daigle through here and then A. B. C. I know this move up looks like it’s a five way structure 12345 But I think it’s more likely A W. X. Y. X. Z. Instead of a. Five. And that would complete a. B. Wave. This slightly overshot the target and then we’re going to pull back through mid year um bonds. And I if we are going to see this pullback in stocks to mid year, I still think we’re gonna see bonds rally. Um I’m not at all convinced that there’s a much more Downside on the on the short term on bonds, bonds have moved Down enough that every talk. And same with the U. S. Dollar that every talking head is talking about how you know this, they’re just going to continue unabated lower. This is the kind of talk you get at major turns and um so it’s very possible that the Mhm. Well we see the dollar strengthened over the next six months. We also see bones moving higher. That’s Hurst is I’ll just say been there’s there’s a couple of reasons why I’ve stubbornly held on to this Wave Count one is Hurst has been really good on bonds for years. Really good. Um, I’m probably a decade back. There’s been many, many times where I was writing on bonds and for instance, Elliott Wave International was wrong many times. And uh, so I trust hurst here, hurst is generally pretty effective on choppy things like, like bonds usually is And it is calling for a rally from late January through August two. So it’s calling for bonds to move up while we see the correction in the stock market during the exact time. I don’t think that that’s, I don’t think there’s anything nonsensical about that. Uh, I’m also looking for a pullback in Excel or K. B. E. Banking sector between now and the middle of the year, just like about everything else. So if we get that pretty substantial pull back on K. B. E. Then we’re probably going to be seeing bonds moving up and yields moving Down. So that’s still my roadmap. And you know, on this weekly chart, I can kind of see it’s rough but 123 Maybe a triangle for four or 5. Let’s see if I can see that on some of the shorter term charts. So I think we could potentially be at the end of this uh end of the road to the Downside on balance for now. Uh 80 X. On the 249 chart on the really screaming. Uh And as high as we’ve seen it lately during this last few count. Uh Listen, another reason, I think there’s one more up shoot on bonds is because of the larger by larger wave count, which has served well over the years. They were getting an expanding ending diagonal, starting at the Y 2K. Low and bonds three waves up for one. The 2 three waves up for three. Three ways Down for four. And this five way structure would only be wave A. Then we get away be Down here and then to see up. Uh That’s still my account Hurst is bullish from late January through early august. That gives that the possibility of moving strongly to the upside. And I think that could easily occur in a flight to safety sort of environment. Um And looking at this weekly charred, you know, A. B. And then 123 triangle for 45 Could that could be what’s going on here? It’s harder to see a flyway structure, identify way structure to the Downside from here. To hear all on this kind of chart. Um Let’s sit here, let me change something. Yeah. Is that a five Down? 12 345. Super Rough. Super Rough Rough. Rough. Hard. Hard to call that a five. But because of all this noise and supposedly in in the third way 12 three, maybe a triangle here. I can see that right. All of this would have to fit within 1/5 wave. It’s very difficult as an L. E. A. Titian to go with that. And so what I’m doing is um and let me change these candles back. Uh huh. Is um In the main count and calling us a blue wave b. And then a one bullish wine. And then all of this are corrective with a bullish too. So there’s a pink to invalidation. It’s almost to it on the zB on the and that would be bullish. Or this could be a pink wave A. This could be a pink wave B. And this could be that five wave structure to the Downside. For pink way. See it’s unfinished yet either way hers continues to expect the bottom and move up. Let’s look very quickly at the account on the Z. In contract Xeon contract. It has made a new low below this low. And uh she had made a new low. Broken through through to a new low. Hello this low. And on this daily chart you can see that it it has broken to a new low on lagging volume. That’s that’s why I use this money flow index versus Rs. I. Indicator is that the R. S. I. Is deeply oversold. But the money flow is is has not at all followed it Down into oversold territory. It’s lagging. Uh huh. Mhm. So that’s one indication of that we’re potentially seeing um some some kind of bottom here. I would think still if we’d start getting a correction from January through mid year that we get some flight to safety in bonds, I would think so. So that’s uh that’s bonds. A real quick look at sentiment on bones. See if there’s anything there before we move forward. Mhm commercials heavily long trend following large specks heavily short. Um Let’s see what sentiment looks like on On the 10 years. Yeah, on the 10 year commercials heavily long both majors, it’s a percent of open interest and on a six month look back. And um So that’s one thing DC is only Down to 49 still. Uh and it certainly could move lower but stubbornly hanging on to mid to neutral territory. Still, the commercials position is interesting on it, moving on to commodities.
Crude Oil & Natural Gas:
Start with oil had to revise the account on oil after once again, after the Saudi news came out, um shot up on that news and uh it’s turned into a more bullish count and that is that this up from the april low we gotta find way structure for an A. And then we got it a relatively small way be and now we’re starting in waves sea to the upside and we’re not even quite done with the blue wave one to the upside yet. Still probably going to get that pull back through mid year for way too at some point. But need to see a finished five wave structure up for the blue wave one before that account happened. So uh so what’s happening on this on this? Move to the upside on the internal wave structures? Well, I can tell you that actually. Okay, just looking at the composite line, It’s saying it’s not gonna top now until February 21 And then it’s going to pull back through September nine and then move much higher over the next year. Moving into the daily, here’s the five wave up structure from the april low 12345 and then an abc for B. Wave. And now it were in a five wave structure. To the upside this move to the upside really has become too long to expect it to be a B wave. Now I could stay, could say, well maybe it’s still be wave and it’s just um overstretched its be wave target where the where the B wave would be 1.3, 8 2 times length away. They Um but when we moved into the 240 minutes chart and we look at the internal wave structures on on the way up, there’s no doubt about it at this point, it doesn’t look like a correction, It looks like an impulse. And so this is a 1-1, 2, 3, 4, 3, 4. And then looking for a way five Got a target up here. 58 55 58 55. So that’s six more dollars onto a barrel of crude before this thing tops. And even within the 5th wave one two, um we’ve already passed, we’re wave three Would be a normal 1.61, 8 Times The length of wave one. So it looks like we’re getting beautiful. A green wave three. And the next target is where way Green Wave three is 2.618 times green wave one. And that’s at 55 04. And then we look for a way for pull back and on up. You notice that it’s traveling nicely in the channel now connected the extremes of pink two and 4 Put a parallel copy of three. And um if it hits that a Fibonacci target and at that time is at the upper edge of the trend channel, then that top would occur On January 26, January 26. So hurst is saying February 21, I doubt that it it takes that long. Um I think it’s gonna top in early January, mm. So there’s the targets, there’s the road map and then then a significant pullback Down through mid year, Back maybe below $40 by the time we get to mid year. So there’s crude oil. Yeah. Um, and um, I will tell you this um, crude crude is um somewhat of its own it moves to the beat of its own drum to some degree. And it can fight against the dollar for a while successfully and has a record of doing so. It isn’t nearly as I think susceptible on the short term as gold and silver would be um with the dollar going up. Yeah. Um Not to mention there are factions um at work in the crude oil market at this time that want crude oil higher. And so far those factions are getting what they want. I will say their announcement came in. Um the Saudis at a critical juncture on crude oil, it would still within the parameter of a B. Wave when they came out with that. But the reaction impotent really pushed that out, push that count out of contention and this count seems to make more sense and they very well could be they can kind of manipulated higher job, own it higher, you know, on the short term that appears for you what they’re doing, even though the dollar may be turning probably yes. And you can see on the short term chart it was over, it was overdone on the 80 X. That gotta walter breast hurt, looked like it was probably done. And then they came in with that news and that really goosed. They really goosed that old wave count just right out of the way. Um Mhm. Commercials are still short, you’re still heavily short. But look at what what they’ve been on the very short term. So they’re still holding a lot of short positions On the DCs at 70. It could work its way higher. Uh And I think it probably will, we may get a C. Up towards you know, Upper 80s or something before this thing stops going up here. Probably. Uh That gas um Hertz has been pretty decent on that gas lately. Um Looking for a bit more upside to finish a pink wave X. Probably up to about 2 99. Mhm. And um so this would be a wave A this would be a way be and this would be a way of see it looks like within the way of C. And green. To the upside, we have 123 and it’s in a little way for consolidation. I think it moves on up 2-99 before it has a drop to finish this corrective pattern. I really don’t see how this could be the bottom of this corrective pattern, Hurst thinks the bottom comes in as early as Jan 23. I expected to kind of take a little longer than that. Um So there’s there’s a roadmap on that. Gas commercials are all of a sudden heavily long nat gas And the Dzi is only a 47. So that means it should easily be able to move on up here in this next leg. Uh huh. Uh Just a quick look at um C. C. J. The uranium stock on the solar E. T. F. Has continued higher. It probably had a real quick three and four right here and it’s moving on up to the next Fibonacci Uh for the end of black wave three so that there’s black one black too. And then blue 1234 As a little higher. To go for black wave three. Um C. C. J. Is really close to my target for the end of the 5th wave up. It might it might be done with the 5th wave up and then looking for a pullback for the wave to um I wouldn’t be surprised to see if there’s uh a decent sized pull back here um on C. G. J. After it. But it it’s a bullish count One from from that capitulation low back in March 12345 for one An ACC for two And then 123 45 for another one. It’s just looking for a bit of a pullback here for way too. Might only pull back to the way 41 lesser degree. But You can see this stock is 1431. I called this bottom on this stock almost to the day certainly to the week I did As a finished pattern when it bottomed Down here $5. It’s already at $14. And if we get a pit pull back around 12, I think the person can own this. Um Because the upside target, It’s 35 bucks Based on a normal wave three Being just 1.618 times. Wave one. It’s a ton of upside. Very interesting stock. Uh Let’s see what D. B. C. Has to offer. No. All right. Moving on to I believe metals. So we’ll look at copper. Uh Okay steve posted some charts that show how much upward potential there likely is here. Um I could have sworn I was put a you are a star uh chart somewhere that should be here. We look real quick for that. You are a. Is kind of the uranium E. T. F. Uh Uh huh. See if it’s in this group, I don’t know where it went. Yeah. So here’s a monthly chart on you are a and it’s in similar It bottomed at $6.95. It’s already at $16. It looks like a 1- 1 to potentially 1212. And it’s just on the weekly chart. Gotta buy signal not last week, but at the end of the week prior on the monthly chart. And this is the trend following system, trend following Algo. And then when we change it to a weekly chart, um It it first got its by signal Mca in mid November. At the end. As we move to the daily chart, it’s been roaring higher. Uh there was a bicycle November 10 and you can see we’ve got a brown box here in a brown box here, but we still uh where the trend is no question on the daily the we the monthly, weekly and daily trends are all up all to the upside. Uh huh. Okay. Yeah. Any kind of pull back like fiction, pulled back about a third of this most recently. Higher then, I think, I think it’s a normal the sector is a buy.
Okay. Copper is extremely overbought and this last leg up in copper, so I’m cutting it is an impulsive move 121234 And then within this leg here, 1234, 5. Can can see Potential five wave structure finished there. It overshot its target conference been amazingly, you know, resilient on the way up. But hurst is still calling for a pullback through mid year. And that makes sense with the what I showed you to start the webinar with the U. S. Dollar. Look, look at the spread between large sprigs of commercials. It’s just enormous. Largest it’s ever been going back years. So the large specks are the chasers, the trend followers. They’re hugely long copper and in commercials heavily short towards the commercials are the producers. So when they’re short, they’re hedging their hedging for a pullback copper daily chart Up from the March Low 121, 2, 34 And then within this structure going up one, two, three. Probably a triangle here for four. And then it’s a very small triangle, A. B. No it’s not a triangle, it’s just the sideways chop. I’m gonna go with that. And then 12345 maybe. And on this daily chart you can see that and look for this on the charts moving forward. If you see a an overbought zone on this indicator end, that means you’ll be able to see the R. C. And the money flow, you’ll be able to see them past the area. And that means that that that over bond area has finished. I think it’s also important to note that at this high right here R. S. I. Room got into overbought territory but the money flow index dramatically lagged it. And now that overbought territory is over. So I think we’re awfully darn close to a one of the probably the largest pullback we’ve seen in copper this year. I mean over the last since March and I’m looking for a correction to last through mid year. You know, we’ve, well, I guarantee that the absolute top tick is in. No, not quite that comment because I’m not sure I see a up from this low a finished five way structure up. However, uh huh all the signs are in place and it has overshot the best fibula cheese targets I have for it for the end of a blue wave three Definite huge brown box recently around copper on the 240 minute 80 x plus chart and walter breath shirt inside of the that box looks awfully toppy to me. Um also on copper, I tried, I always try when I’m going back and uh working with the algo my momentum and go with the different things. I even tried to apply the new system that is um, after a long signal candle, it looks for a pullback to get in to get in long. The same thing short, if the signal candle is longer than average, then it looks for a bit of a pullback after that kind of candle before it goes ahead and joins in and I was able to back test it and get some better actual monetary results of it. But I still couldn’t get a decent winning percentage along with big winning numbers out of it, Which continues to be a major mystery to me why I can’t get to go to work on copper. I just think it’s just so rip roaring noisy on a candle by candle basis that it, in order traded, it would have to use, you know, an astronomical stop, which obviously if there’s other I Tradable items that don’t have those problems in in the automated trading world, why would a person even bother with this? But you know, it did catch a big winner here recently. Mhm. But the interesting thing about it is that um this um does have a filter and when it’s the disease too too high or too low to keep you from trade and you know, going along if the the DSC sentiment is too rich And that threshold is 88 on copper. So based on back testing, if over the last three years, if retail sentiment is over 88 balls, it does not take a new long signal. It just skips it. Even if it gets enough momentum to get a signal candle, like it got right here on the fifth. It refuses to take it, it puts it puts it in a red box, which is it do not trade box at least do not trade law. Mhm. We also have the end on the daily chart of of a extreme zone on the money flow index versus Rs. I. Indicator and that it has ended. Um and on the final day so all of that, the sentiment, the money flow lagging is all suggesting that maybe finally, you know, the coppers have been, you know, riding on the coattails of a of a of a weak dollar that maybe the run is finally over for now. Yeah. Um Yeah, sentiment. Perfect storm. Pretty much retail heavily. Long commercials on a six month look back heavily short, huge spread between the large specs and the commercial, large specs are been chasing this thing longer to the upside platinum. Mhm. Soon is the US dollar. I’m literally the U. S. Dollar. The change in direction of the U. S. Dollar only occurred on Friday, but as soon as that came in then we got this big selloff candle here on plan. Um I think we’re going to get a sizable move to the Downside on platinum. Whether the U. S. Dollar bounces out of an extreme oversold condition notice the um bearish divergence on the R. S. I. And money flow. You know made a platinum, made a new high here. But we’re getting a big divergence here, right? That all looks pretty bearish here. Yeah commercials are heavily short platinum. There’s a the large specks are quite a bit longer than the commercials are and retail sentiment. It’s been flirting around with some hot super high numbers. Uh I still think that we need a substantial pull back in platinum and I think we had just started on Friday precious metals.
Gold & Silver:
Well the reaction in the gold to just one day of the dollar acting like he wanted to bounce was amazing to see that silver there. Um So here’s the weekly Chart on gold. And at one literally on thursday I was getting emails was like well yeah or maybe it was on Wednesday. Think it was on Wednesday, It’s like menu, you screwed up again, said on gold, it’s like really uh such an emotional space but you know indeed the uh it sure looks like I did not did not screw up and I haven’t been screwing up to be honest. And for months and months this this has been my robe and has been working well um and protecting this as an unfinished triple zigzag. And I believe the second wave axe ended here. It’s moving on Down. Uh uh Here’s an example, you know? Um Yes, on silver, it kind of looks like there was a five wave up structure from this low, back here in late November, but not the case in gold and certainly not the case in GDX. Both of those look like they put in a triangle across here. And so this was a thrust out of the triangle and it was about here where I was getting the emails and look what’s happened since. Um this looks like it’s not even finished with a five wave Down structure yet. 1234 five and wave fives can be really nasty in precious metals. Um So looking to the more Downside Hurst doesn’t think the bottom still February 18, which makes me wonder if, you know, I need to do something with my roadmap to get it to last that long. You know, maybe we’ll get a pink way be triangle that eats up sometime across here wouldn’t be surprised. still got a target of 1672 60. That is a .38 to retrace of the Entirety of Black Wave three. Uh so there’s there’s the road map on gold, wow, Just amazing. It’s the 240 minute um here’s the amazing thing On the 240 minutes chart on gold. It went from being overbought With the, with the Adx indicator, over 40 on the 240 minute chart. It went from overbought immediately to over soul that quick. And so it stayed in a brown box this entire time. Uh That’s crazy. But one is self signal that was right there on gold. So I think we’ll start including the gold 240 Minute 80 X Plus Charts for Premium Plan subscribers. Uh Nightly about a dozen shots including golden silver bit wow, what a great signal. And then uh now right now it’s acting It’s oversold on the 240 minute chart and we could get a pull back. But I think that what we’ve got here is 123 and then we’re going to get a four here. And then the 5th wave Down uh trend following template daily chart. The trend just changed from up to Down on Friday. It changed directly from up to Down. And if it’s going to get get that kind of reaction to really the slightest bit of up on the U. S. Dollar index makes you wonder. And so this sector is not a by at this time. You know it is if anything it’s a cell. Uh huh. And uh we need to see some confirmation. A major confirmation. Uh If this does what I think it’s going to do of a bottom before it becomes a by. So we have a trend following um with a trend change according to the trend following uh template from up to Down. And that happened on Friday. Uh let’s see here that the algo on gold gave a cell say don’t, now I’m going to turn on, I’m going to turn on the streaming and see if we can see something here um over here instead of this stupid message that my trade navigator sticks out there, click here to see the orders report. Okay. Uh huh. So here’s here’s what the algo is, the way it’s going to work very quickly on a new cell signals notice that little uh circle right there, That means that this was an unusually long candle and the signal came in on an unusually long candle and it closed right here. The close was 1849 90. Uh huh. Um And so this thing says for short entries Place a day, order 71 ticks above the opening Price 71 ticks above the opening price. So um I’m going to make a line that 71 takes long and if the bottom Is at 1849 90 so I’m gonna lower this by One animal over there. So that’s a cell signal in 1857, 18 57. Yeah so that’s then so if a printing plan member got that got there since so there was a sell signal It would look for a pullback of 71 ticks They’ll be at 1857 before and that would put in a so a limit sell order there To start the week and then it’s the stop is 1550 dollars worth. Stop $1550. Okay. Really close. So 1857 wow Does stop to be at 1872 50. Mhm. And that’s that’s the way the algo works Is you put in like if you’re in the think or swim platform you put in a limit order to sell at 1857 and then there’s a thing you can click on their conditional order that if that fills Put a stop in at 1872 50 and that that is the way one would handle. This is a very quick lesson for premium plan subscriber how one would handle getting their orders in when they see a cell signal on on an unusually long candle. Another thing you could do after that long of a candle, you know, wouldn’t be surprising to see a little bit more of a pullback than that. And so they’re always in a little bit of day in danger of beginning stopped out after entering entering after a very long candle. And so a person might go to the 240 minute 80 x chart and look for um something some kind of signal that um, you know, because it’s likely to bounce out of this oversold territory. I would say it’s a little bit more than that. And so you could use these in combination knowing that you probably want to short this thing. If you’re a trend follower and try to get in in a position that is such that you won’t get stopped out. It’s always tough. Um, yeah, Daily Cinnamon Index on Gold only got up to 68 recently. But let’s look at the commercials heavily short as a percent of open interest, heavily short. The commercials are heavily short the large specks extremely long. It’s really, it was definitely a parish bearish picture as I had showed you last. We can then on silver, the Dead Sea was even more it um, uh, even even quite a bit higher. And as silver head broken out to a slight new hi, how many, how many of you that follow silver and gold and you follow writers on the internet. We’re getting notifications are reading articles about how bullish silver was at this at this juncture right here. As soon as it made a new high above this high. Just curious, were you seeing a lot of bullish articles or have you been seeing a lot of bullish articles since this November 30 low. If you follow the sector, I think I know the answer, but I think there’s been just a tremendous amount of bullishness from this low and uh, some were wanting to call this a five wave structure to the upside there were several things wrong with it. Five wave structure to the upside that I’ll show you that indicated that it probably wasn’t a five wave structure and H. D. C. A. G. And 13. Yeah and that is um Mhm. The internal Fibonacci relationships between the waves Now it does look like a potential 12345 wave structure. But the wave three was just barely longer than one. And then the way five was quite short and you know it’s the shortest of 13 and five. That’s not what typically happens in in precious metals. You get that long. Fifth way. The other thing is that if this were wave one, You would look for a wave three. There was at least 1.618 times the length of Wave one. And it were really at 788 ticks was not that much longer than the wave one. So there was there was some problems with it. And then the other big problem with it was that it There was no corresponding five wave up structure in gold or the miners and really I think need that as some kind of confirmation. Um So anyway, let’s see that that data isn’t right anymore. We see here, That’s Jan 13 and FAB 17. Uh huh. Couple days ago that day was correct. And I was blowing it off thinking that it had to move lower than it and that ended up paying off not being married to the short term Hurst dates feb 17 way over there. So this way be, could could last a lot longer. Yeah, then well, I’m trying on this very short term chart, but pretty pretty likely to get a five wave Down structure uh for a wave A on silver first. And it’s not, it does not appear to be complete. Mhm. The the other big problem was that the DSS on silver was at a 90 back here 90 incredibly rich Dzi. Uh Just one candle prior to the top tick. That doesn’t seem like the best time to be buying. Does it really doesn’t uh let’s go to currencies now to finish up.
Currencies & Cryptos:
USD/JPY already covered. So I’m just gonna show you the short term chart here. Well, I’ll just show you the very quickly looking for a bounce through July and then a really a real meltdown and U. S. Dollar to finish an ending contracting diagnosed, started all the way back 1985 when the U. S. Dollar index was at 1 64 boy, incredible. And so really looking for an a. b. and then a 12345 Down through probably about mid 2023. Mm hmm. This looks like a solid five waved and structure to the Downside. I think it’s finished and we get to move up through and I need to put no mid jan here. Yeah. Move up through July late July. So we’ll see what kind of moving and we see to the upside. But usually, you know, you’re gonna see um A move back to the way for one lesser degree. So they’ll be back to 94 75. It could be larger, you know, uh could could get a .618 retrace, You know, the move back to the way for one lesser degree is just barely more than a .382 rate race. Which is pretty small for a wave to wave to um Most wave twos will retrace between 50 and 500.618%. Between 50 and 61.8%. That be anywhere from about 96 to 97 50 in July. So beware of um in my opinion, being long, anything that counts on a short, on a on a weak dollar and notice this initial move up. Now, I’m going to tell you um hurst It hasn’t decided. This is a 18 month cycle trough yet. So this is this date here, this March 16th take. This is liquid at this point. It’s just um honestly no, just a starting it. It’s just a date letting you know that Yeah, we’re probably going to see several weeks of rebound initially off of this low. And then once it’s moved up enough To either allow me to force spin this 18 months here or it does it organically, then we’ll start seeing the potential of getting honed in on this state. So this is the state is very liquid at this point. And that’s why I’m not necessarily, you know, drawing the lines exactly with the dates yet. This is just something I’ve learned to, you know, take hurst with a grain of salt around these large cycle troughs. The most important thing is, did you get all the subdivisions and we have, Does that mean it’s definitely, definitely bottom? No, nothing means definitely, definitely in this business. But it’s there’s a lot of signs I showed you last week this Magdi crossover and bullish divergence at this low, indicating that we’re awfully close to bottom. And while Price made a new low that Magdy lines didn’t even cross back over. Yeah. On this very short term chart, we look slightly a slight bit overbought but and then on the daily chart, You know, if you put an adaptive moving average on your daily chart said a very common tin two and 30 when you get a daily candle that close us above their moving average. That’s a bicycle. So we don’t have that yet. It came out and tagged that line and that line has flattened out. But we need a daily close above that. And that current level is 90.19. The US index Need a daily close above 90.19 in order to get a daily trend following by or even as possible. Bye. On daily trend following chart. They all go tried one last time too short. Yes. Our index. And it didn’t work. Most of the shorts though um have been working well. And um you will often get a failed trend following signal at the end of a trend. And I think that’s probably it trend following. It doesn’t care how far it goes or how stressed it is typically. Um It’ll keep, it’ll keep shorten it until one day to get stopped out and it might even try to short it a couple of times toward the end of a trend, then it gets stopped out. Um And trend following is much more um meaningful during, during a trend not around a trend change. Uh UsD Jpy have no confidence in an account here. Been scrubbing its way to the Downside. If we’re gonna get a stronger dollar though, I would expect. We’re probably gonna get a bounce on Usd Jpy multi month bounce on Usd Jpy necks and we did get a bit of a of a bounce and see if we a bit of a bounce. The price has been kind of moving in this um, narrowing channel and it moved up enough late last week that it, it tagged that channel hasn’t broken through it yet. It will probably pull back a little bit and then break on through. Probably take a few days to do that. Yeah, there’s Usd Jpy moved up, got into a brown box, gotta walter bread shirts. So that probably is about it for now and a little bit more of a pullback before it takes another run at that trend channel and tries to break out of it. I definitely have a change of trend indication, a new green box on the daily trend, following template on the USd Jpy. Um, though the spread is extremely bearish on the yen, that would be bullish on the dollar against again on the short term. So this is just the yen. It’s not, not a currency parents just again and it’s been scrubbing, chopping higher. But boy, I would say the conditions are ripe for it to break. To the Downside. The yen and we would see a move up in the dollar. That would be kind of a flight to safety into the dollar. Probably a flight to safety into bonds at the same time. Uh Here’s USd cad, you can see the five wave Down structure and even within the fifth wave 12 345 it didn’t make it all the way Down to my target. Uh Normal target .618 target. But It did make it Down to the quality target where wave five blue was equal To wave one blue And all the subdivisions do appear to be there within the 5th wave one two And in 123, 4, 5 for three, four and then 1, 2, 34 five. Bullish divergence out of deeply oversold territory. If USD cad turns and starts moving to the upside, it’s going to be hard for oil to continue Higher. They could separate from from each other for a minute, but not very long. I’ve seen it, but it generally doesn’t last. So I know I’ve got oil moving a bit higher over the next few days so I wouldn’t count it out over the realm of possibility is that usd cad hasn’t bottomed yet. But my main count is that it has um commercials are heavily short of the Canadian dollar. Lord specs are heavily long commercials, heavily short Daily Cinnamon indexes recently as high as 85 and 79 right now. Like I said last week, getting into perfect storm territory on these, on sentiment readings on currencies. Uh huh. Well, we’ll finish up with on C um euro and uh pound. We’ll take a quick look at the swiss franc, quick look at Bitcoin or I think we’re irish showed Bitcoin. It will need to show that again. I will just to put a chapter on the do any of you utilized are um we we put chapters on the recording of the web in arm and we posted about a couple of hours after we post the first recording that women are. Did I hope all of you said there’s some new subscribers. I know that you could once, once you get the email that I posted the recording of the webinar and you want to go back and look at it, you can do that. But about a couple hours or three hours after that, we post a second recording of the webinar that is indexed. So you get, you have an on screen index where you can choose which the coverage of specific items and jump on the, on the video timeline directly to the the items that you may most be interested in. And I don’t mention it off enough, but I think it’s a pretty good service that we offer and something that you if you weren’t aware of, that, that you could easily use to go back and find specific coverage items. So, on the Australian dollar, um Pretty clear five wave up structure to the upside, I think it’s probably finished here. Um have a really kind of clear 4th wave and 5th wave now looking for a corrective pullback to the way for one lesser degree at a minimum, possibly more Down through mid year, hurst is currently saying august, I don’t think it’s personally going to take that long. Um Up from the March low 1212 34 34. And in the 5th wave up 123 for five. And within their fifth wave 12345 All the subdivisions appear to be there and it’s not the longest 5th wave ever. That would have been that target would have been where wave five would be equal to the net travel to one through three Times .618. That would have been up there. But I just I don’t think it’s going to go up there. We’ve got all the subdivisions. Um Mhm. The 240 minutes 80 x plus chart kind of nailed that top. Be sure in look at the money flow vs. RC on your charts if you can. I’ve overlapped them together and done a lot of color coding when they’re in extreme territory but and you may or may not be able to pull that off on your platform. Um But. Mhm. That sure as heck nailed that top so far. We’ll see if that sticks is a top. Um Okay this line right here on the daily chart is Australian dollar on the daily chart, this is the RC. This is the money flow. Look at how much it lagged at that high. There’s and it’s in the money flow is making its way to Downside. It’s it looks like that there’s a loss of volume propelling the Australian dollar higher. Uh It’s managed to keep going up against the grain for a while and it really had that same condition back here and it found another yet another new high And that did see hit 90 right back in here and now on Friday. We gotta we gotta walter Brexit on the daily chart. That’s that’s that red block there. Mhm. And yeah. Yeah we got walter Bradford and that’s basically with the RSC and money flow in it, Extremely negative position right after 90. So that’s boy awfully toppy. Amazing. Hell how far the Australian dollar has been able to continue to generally grind higher. Um But boy, it sure looks like everything is against against it moving higher at this time. The Euro Same thing. Looking at a clean clear five wave of structure from the March low. And as we look in a little closer on the daily there’s the one there’s a March low 121234345 for three W. X. Y. For four and then 12345 A little endian diagonal here. It hasn’t quite reached The optimum target where Pink five would be equal to the net. Travel to one through three. Pink Times .618. It has. If you put the pink wade now still didn’t hit it. I didn’t have to hit it. Look at the divergence is um that are occurring now. So I think that top is probably in on on on that. Especially with the reaction in gold and silver that we got. Um The Dsi right here is at 92 on the euro. And you can see it’s um the everything’s been diverging into that recent high. Um Even even on the R. S. I. And money flow. So it’s a definite weakening as it continued higher into that top tick which is right here. 23 68. Very weak looking now coming off of that there were only two days past it got to walter pressure to end the week. And then on the pound dollar, I think we probably topped here in the pound dollar. It could sneak up, you know this this ending diagonal pattern could produce one more little slide up shot. But um it doesn’t have to, it doesn’t have to. Um and I think we’re awfully darn close to to a top here. We’ve hit a good Fibonacci target already. And I think we’ll turn in and have a multi month correction on all these, all of these uh currencies, every one of them, we’ll take just a quick quick peek. just take 30 seconds or so at the kiwi, the kiwi has been thrusting up out of the way for triangle. And I believe that that finished last week as well. So the kiwi very quickly, there’s the triangle, Here’s the thrust of the triangle and the long wick on the weekly candle uh indicating that we easily could have a top. This has been thrusting up out of a triangle. Those are thrusts out of triangles are terminal when they’re done, they’re done. And then you’re usually going to move back to the way for one lesser degree, which is basically back to the start of the triangle next. Um And I think we’ll do that over the next few months Down through mid year. And swiss frank mhm Swiss franc. I think it’s been moving Down in a leading expanding diagonal, expanding diagonals are often deeply retraced. So this bounce that we get in the usd chf I think could be very pretty sizable between now and mid year. Um See how it’s a leading expanding diagonal. And that’s what’s been so so aggressive to the Downside. It’s a megaphone pattern. I wouldn’t be surprised to see us to go back and try to tag a line extending um the top of the megaphone pattern here by the time we get to mid mid year, but often the fifth wave of a expanding dialogue will attempt but fail to tag a line extending from one and three of the dialogue. So this has been an amazing plunge. All the subdivisions are here in here as well. one 23 45, pretty sure we got a bottom here too and very quickly um just show it. So it’ll be on the recording one more time we’ve covered Bitcoin but I think Bitcoin, let me see what Bitcoin. I turn on. The streaming, Come on, what am I looking for? Okay, um I’m gonna turn on the streaming of it is on and see if Bitcoin has been find trying over the weekend to do much of anything to the for upside continuation. No, it looks like it is giving it up a little bit. Mm So that’s what the streaming on. So Bitcoin has already and you might say, well, that’s not much of a pullback. Well, so far that pullback is 11% crazy. Crazy crazy percentages coming uh, on this and boy, that, that really does look toppy right there on Bitcoin.
Um, that is everything. I can’t thank you so much for joining me. Thank you for your subscription. Um, I think we’re at a critical juncture right here on this turn in the dollar and how it’s going to affect all kinds of items, virtually every item that we trade. Um, so it’s gonna be super fascinating week uh, in the markets, um, expect the screenshots shortly. And um, and the recording of the webinar as well. We’ll see you on the email if you have any questions all as a subscriber, you can always email me So talk soon. See you later, bye.
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