Investing Using Elliott Wave
Elliott Wave Plus | Weekly “Counts” Webinar Text
January 3, 2021
(This text was auto-transcribed by a software utility)
Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, wherever you may be. This is Sid from Elliott Wave Plus, and this is the January three of 2021 Happy new year edition of our weekly Counts webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stock markets, commodities, currencies and bonds. Hurst cycle analysis as well as a number of other forms of technical analysis will also be considered on virtually all items. Before we get started, I would like for you to be aware of my disclaimer. It’s at my website, ElliottWavePlus.com. You go there, scroll all the way to the bottom, click on this terms of service disclaimer tab that’s on the bottom of every page at the site, and there it is. Please go there and read it in full and be aware of it. If I were to summarize it in one sentence, it would be, there is risk of loss and all trading. . Okay. I’ve done quite a lot of work over the last few days on a number of things. One is I that wanted to make another examination of the long-term Elliott wave count and associated Fibonacci price targets. You will see that I’ve made a number of updates and changes. I’ve also been back testing the algos, and getting a new entry method involved with as many algos as it can help for premium plan members, and also setting up some new sets of indicators on many charts that I think will be very helpful this year moving forward. So that being said, off goes the video of self, and I’ll see you at the end.
US Stock Market Indices:
Here’s the long-term Dow Jones Industrial Average wave count. Before I start describing some new things I’ve put on this chart, let me show you a current Hurst cycle analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average using all the data that’s available to me. So it goes back to just prior to the 1928 peak of the roaring 20s in October of 1928. So it’s able to see that peak and take it into consideration as well as the major trough in 1932. After a 90 percent crash in the stock market, that lasted three years, the worst crash in the stock market history, going back 100 years. And here’s what the composite line is basically saying and I’ve taken some of the shorter cycles off the composite line to smooth it out a little bit. And I think it’s interesting that it is suggesting that the stock markets are going to stay up through about mid 2022 now, it’s not necessarily suggesting that they’re going to scream higher, but I can kind of see a little um pattern here, that might be saying. And as we go through some of the charts, this is potentially legitimate um topping pattern in the stock market that we might um be experiencing since the March Low of 2020. So there’s been quite a long move up in from the March low. Um and according to Hurst there, there’s a peak do soon and then a move down into about July and then to move up into late in the year. This year, maybe November December, And then a smaller move down through about March of 2022 and then around July Of 2020 to a top. And this kind of looks like it might be. Um and ending diagonal into this bull market, secular bull market that’s been going on for a very long time. Um Could end In mid-2022. And then the composing line is quite bearish down approximately. I’ve cut it off the chart here About 19 I’m sorry 2032 Approximately 2032. So let’s see what that what this is translates to as a possibility in the stock market. So what I’ve done here is I’ve essentially taken um peter Goodburn’s count and at um what’s it called? Wave track and applied it to this chart. So you can see and then I want to talk about the differences which between protectors count in good moods count and then discuss why I prefer Goodburn’s account. And he is more of a inflationist. Whereas Prechter is more of a deflationist. Both of them count the 1929 high as a Supercycle wave three high, 1932 loads of Supercycle wave for low both of those individuals. Um But um it gets into this topping process up here where Prechter has been wanting to call a major top ever since 2000. . We’re in really over the last 10 years. Good brain has been the more correct wave counter. Um as he thought Um as early as 2010 or so that a large cycle bottom was in In 2000 March 2009. And that the stock market was going to make it up to new all-time highs Uh even higher than the 2007. Uh Hi and um I know in the case of Prechter, he was surprised by the new high in 2007. And also surprised by the new high above the 2007 high when it came to about 2012 2013. And so um, let’s face it, Goodburn has been the more correct, uh, counter in recent times. And so I’ve taken um the Fibonacci targets that he prefers at this time. And I placed it on this chart for your consideration. And that is that um, when you, if you accept this as um Supercycle Wave three and Supercycle wave four and this is all a Supercycle Wave five and we’re going to put in a grand Supercycle Wave three top sometime in the next few years and that that is likely to be followed by a systemic crash. This is, this is Goodburn. I know he’s famous for being very bullish lately, but once this thing tops is, you know, that’s and he has some very specific targets. Someone talked to him about that. That that will be followed by a systemic crash back essentially to the way for one lesser degree I think would be more accurate to take it back to the wave to within the extended super extended fifth wave that’s been underway since 1974 and that would be back to 730 on the Dow. And um I’ve drawn it so that that occur moves down to the next expected K. Wave, which is essentially 50-year wave. So obviously the 1932 low would have been a K wave low, very likely 1982 was really the end of the sideways um Uh price action that had lasted almost two decades in the start of where it really got going to the upside. And that’s likely the 1982, the K wave load. So 2032 would be 50 years forward from that low. And so um amazingly, um on the road map I just showed you, hurst is expecting a strong move down from mid-2022, down through approximately 2032. That would be the next um I think 18 year, At least at least a nine-year cycle trough. And by the way that analysis right there is troughs only that doesn’t take into consideration peaks in any way, shape or form. So when you measure up from the 1932 low and you look for the fifth wave, an extended fifth wave to have a Fibonacci relationship Um from the bottom of way, for that would be in 1974. So in other words, it would weigh five would equal zero through 40 through four here times and very extended, but not impossible, 1.618. So that is one hell of an extended 5th way. And that target is at 41,000 on the Dow 41,020 and then, and that’s a teal or cycle degree wave five target. So salute mood. Look at the next um, Um, degree target and that would be the primary or burgundy degree target. And um, I think we have a pretty good chance of being correct on this as a 12. The burgundy Wave three tar top in 2000 and then 2009, the Burgundy way forward. So everything that’s been happening since 2009 Is Burgundy Way five Should be a five wave structure. And if you in one of the most um, um reliable Fibonacci targets we have in Elliott wave and this Goodburn, certainly degrees of this. I’ve seen it many times is where wave five in burgundy would be equal to the net traveled of one through three. Burgundy times 30.618 On a similar chart, exceedingly important must be in a similar chart. And that target is basically 42,000 on the Dow. So we have a 41,000 target and we have a 42,000 target. And then there’s one additional target that I can actually put on this um Quarterly chart and that is the black or intermediate degree target. So if we have one in a running flat for two Wave three, top in 2018, Wave four, Bottom in 20 20 March of 2020, Then um way five in black. If it were the most normal um Femininity target would be wave five Would equal the net travel to one through three times .618. And that’s at 44,000. So now we have targets at 41 42 and 44,000. So we just hit 30,000 on the dow. So good. Obviously, goodburn thinks That we have another 10,000 or so plus Dow points to go before we hit a the end of a, of a very, very large degree bull market. Now he does his own cycle analysis, he doesn’t use Hurst. He looks at the way uh, Uses several different cycles. I know uses a 94 year cycle, 50 year cycle and 80 year cycle in 100 and six month cycle. And he thinks that tom right now is going to occur. Most of his work is saying 2023 Hurst is currently suggesting 2022 as I had showed you before. I mean if and remember these legs and you know, when, when it comes to cycle analysis, These don’t suggest necessarily price, but they suggest direction. And so yeah I can see that this could be a wave 12345. Now the fact that it’s kind of weak looking and could be an ending diagonal is one idea. Another possibility is that it’s a regular, you know, five wave non-overlapping impulse up through mid-2022 as well. And so um this is bullish, this is bullish. And there’s one thing that suggests that this could be correct and that is the um and I want to run this in the background. I took a quick screenshot of the Dow Jones industrial average just before we started there. But I want to look at the U. S. Dollar index and as you know, I’ve been talking about on the U. S. Dollar index that um we would after this five way down that we’ve seen from March finishes and I think we’re within just an eyelash of finishing it that there would be a recovery through July approximately of this year and that would be a Wave two and then there would be what appeared to be a collapse in the dollar, a really strong Wave three to the downside. And that the dollar from July of please let me get this up and running from July of 2021 would be very weak for a couple of years and possibly down through In a late 2022 possibly mid 2023. Very, very weak dollar. And so that has been suggesting and that’s been in place for a very long time that um we’re going to see inflation not deflation but inflation. Um Let’s see if I can get this to roll with no repentance, get that going. Uh This that will take a few minutes to, to work out. But anyway, it definitely supports the idea that we still have a bit more inflation to go possibly to, to the year 22 Late 2022 2023. And that would see if we’re going to see a lot weaker dollar that should be supportive of stocks and commodities at least for the next couple of years. But this is, I think this roadmap has been working. But here’s the amazing thing about it to me and it’s, it’s different. It’s, it’s as bullish as it seems right now over the next couple of years, It is deadly. Bearish for a full 10-year period, For a full 10 year period, starting just two, maybe three years from now. And if they didn’t send chills up your spine, I don’t know. I don’t know what does, but that, this is Goodburn’s count. And he’s been right a lot lately. So let’s move into the monthly and see uh in look at these uh and starting right here. . I have my old count on here. Which um is not that as deadly bearish as Goodburn’s count is it seems funny to say that because he’s been bullish, you know, for a decade. . It leaves my my old main count on here. But it also puts in um that Uh alternate and and it brings that that that high target of 43,652, the highest of the three targets in in here and places it here and here. Here’s the interesting thing about that. So this is the March 2009. Low, let’s say good ones, right? And this is uh burgundy way for and we have black woman black too. And uh Black three Black 4. And we’re looking at a black wave five up here that would consist of a blue 12345. Yeah. Uh The thing that strikes me about this is that this wave one here has already eaten up ah almost two thirds of the way to the high target. It’s already traveled that far and um that’s inclusive of the last new high. Now. Goodburn. And me are in somewhat of an agreement of what would happen next. And there would be some downward movement in in in Goodburn’s case. That would be a wave too. And then we would be 345 on up according to Hurst. Um We’re going to um have a bearish first half of 2021 And there is an 18 month cycle trough due in July in some items. And they would, for instance, Australian dollar, uh that is expected in august, but as we have learned about hurst lately is the market seems to be incumbent hurry up mode. And these troughs are generally coming in early. Like the March trough was really do about June and it came in in March about three months early. So um Goodman saying May, so downward movement at least according to his shorter term cycle, work down into May and then wave three to the upside Yeah, 45. And remember this, this is the high target, you know, um I didn’t bring over to the lower targets but 41 oh two, oh 41-020 uh would be there. And that is where five would be equal to uh zero. And I’m showing this as an alternate through four. I made changes to the main count at some point. Just Simplify the chart times a very extended 1.618. So there’s the low end of the range For target for a grand Supercycle wave five. And the uh we have a Fib target of 41 981 41 981 So that the target range really isn’t that wide When you get up, when you get up over 40,000 on the Dow, I think. Yeah. So there’s the zone and the way I’ve drawn it, it would talk Toward the end of 2022. But on this chart, I’m going to put where hurst is suggesting it would top, and that would be July 2022. So, um then you and so now I’m going to talk for a second about what predator thinks. and from the 2009 low, he’s got that it’s a Supercycle way for low and he’s got this as a one two three or 4. And this would be the end of the 5th wave here and be a very short fifth wave. So um in my estimation um it doesn’t appear that you know if practice is wanting to call this, if it’s wave up. Uh the only difference between Prechter and Goodburn now is that um Prechter thinks the fifth wave up was finishing now. Whereas a Goodburn thinks that where only seen wave one of an eventual five wave structure to the upside based on Fibonacci targets. And that’s the only difference. Either this is a completed wave five or this is a wave one Within an unfinished wave five, that’s the only difference. . So um moving in a little closer, let me get that spread back out for the screenshots. My grandson, my 15-year-old genius grandson takes my screen shots for me after the webinars, he’s been doing that for months and months and months and saves a little wear and tear on my eyes. Uh huh. So um here’s the weekly and um so in the case of Goodburn, he’s counting a five wave structure up through here and then he sees three waves down here, a three wave structure to the upside here away be that’s getting kind of stretch now and then um a wave see down for a wave to so he thinks that that’s going to happen more like uh May, which is right, there’s a mid, there’s mid May right there. So there’s very little difference. Um the only the only difference in my main camp in his is that I don’t we might see another new high in the meantime. Um but at least initially I um we agree that what we’re seeing here is an expanded flat. This is an expanded flat. This will be even expanded flats gone about as far as they can go and then a sea of an expanded flight. And then um There’s an 18 month cycle trough due in August. No, I already mentioned to you that because these troughs have been coming in a little early, like this is theoretically an 18 month cycle trough here, even though that only took yeah, 15 months. So that happens really fast. now. This this 18 month cycle trough here are 18 month cycle took Slightly longer than 18 months. And then this this 18 month cycle slightly shorter. So they vary. And that’s one of the things about cycle analysis is they the cycles do vary and so we’ll be looking keenly at the wave structure that we see between now and mid year and to see, you know which one is correct. But um, in fact, I’m going to go like this for the assault and I wouldn’t be surprised if that alternate is in fact correct why? Because sentiment is so overwhelmingly one sided at this time. I think it’s time for a pretty sizable dip, you know, in order to work off some of that fraud, you know, the seasonality going through year end was bullish and I managed to basically keep the markets up, but they really haven’t gone much of anywhere since about mid-November, kind of scrubbing higher. And, and that late in the day moved to the upside in the Dow. The stock market may have been that just kind of the last push associated with that way be noticed that the way be target the best way we target up. I’ll show it to you on the daily chart is has now been slightly, ever so slightly eclipsed. That was at 30,004.60. So if if this was a three wave wave A of an eventual expanded flat, then we would expect away be about 1.382 times length. A wave a at 30 for 60 and the high on Friday was 3637. So it’s beaten it now and by 170 down points. Does that mean that that’s just going to keep going hard now? I really don’t think so. I just think that it’s, you know, with the bullish, um seasonality and toward year end, nobody was willing to sell and take profit and take profit and you have to pay taxes on it towards your end, very little selling towards your end. And that taking profit could come in right away at the beginning of the year, in my opinion, I mean right away and then looking for a five-wave structure to downside, Goodburn and I are both in agreement on that and then he thinks this that will be all there is for wave two. Um and it will move higher, but because of Hurst, I think that wave two could last uh intentionally to let’s say I’ve got this drawing way over here in September, which is where it used to be. I have an updated data on the short-term chart and now it’s august and I just think that we need to be real careful around starting May, You know, as early as May, looking for the an 18-month cycle trough and they finished um only a wave pattern to the downside for a potential major buying opportunity, potential major buying opportunity. And notice um I’m certainly expecting a good-sized bounce out of that and don’t be surprised if I gradually gravitate toward the more bullish count, depending on how things develop between now and mid-year. But I can tell you is we work through the webinar, this whole idea of this move to the upside is finished or very nearly so and we’re going to pull back through approximately mid-year, maybe it might bottom slightly earlier as early as may be made. And they were going to get a nice move to the upside is relatively universal. And don’t be surprised if I end up at this man and this main count which would have the um bullishness continue really for another at least year and a half into, into a major top. And I can tell you, um Goodburn’s had the same account for a very, very long time, Same targets pretty similar. And the same expectation that once these targets are hit, there’ll be a systemic crash. There is a K wave due about 2032. And he that that word systemic crash is um using his words, not mine. So you know, if this thing is going to turn into some like going to continue to create this this bubble and it’s going to be supported by print mega printing, which essentially brings forward demand from the future and takes it in now. And they’ve been doing that for so long. That that potential endgame of this financial engineering could come As early as mid-2022 and possibly getting into 2023. Oh, here’s the daily, here’s the very simplified um, down jones industrial average chart that I have and that is that we should move down Next in five waves and then should see a nice move to the upside out of that low, forgot to update this may never slight, there was a slight new high. So the target the for the end of wave B in pink when it comes to the futures contract Um was 35 16 and the high tech so far This high here is 34 94. This high was 35 26, 10 Dow points 10. Only 10 Dow points higher than this target when it comes to the futures market. And notice that I’m labeling this as an expanding ending Diagonal of an A. There’s all be wave in pink old be waving in downtown industrial average. So it needs to be a three A In green, that’s a 5-wave impulse B. And green hair. And then an expanding ending diagonal with a little throw over. And you might ask. And I I used to keep this on the chart and I erase it for some reason. . How long does that? Um 5th wave need to be in order to be longer than the third way because that’s a requirement of an expanding Diagonals. The 5th way must be longer than the third. Okay, now I can’t remember what the length was here. 1217. So I need to draw 12 1217. Uh tick line from this low which was 29 3 18 29 3 18. . And this needs to be 2025 shorter than it is. And so the 35 35 35 35 is the minimum third 5 35 minimum target in an expanding Daigle Wave three must be longer than five and weigh five must be longer. Or let me put that differently. Wave three must not be shorter than one and five must not be shorter than three way four must be longer than two. And it was And it must also overlap into the price territory of Wave one. So all those things. What is the definition of longer? Well, you measure wave three and it’s 1217 ticks. And you can’t have a wave three that is shorter Than 1217 ticks. So that creates a minimum of 30,000 5. 35. 30005 35. In the high tech so far Is 30005 26. So it may need a slight little gap up. It has nothing whatsoever to do a time. This is Elliott Wave and expanding, dying always. Elliott wave and Elliott wave never considers time. It only considers price. So I’m going to draw that where it needs just a few more little ticks. And why did I race when I just put up there? Uh does anybody remember what my minimum target was with five 35 26. 5 35. Thank you. Um One other thing about expanding diagonals is the fifth wave usually does not overthrow that line uh intersecting one uh extending from way one and three usually does not. So in this case it has but it can do that. It can overthrow too. Anyway. Um I need just a few more scant ticks is all in order to hit the minimum height in in the YM contract? And that is if in fact, what we’ve been saying is an expanding ending diagonal. . . You’ll notice that um on a lot of these charts, I’m incorporating um adding uh the money flow versus the RSE indicator. Um A lot of these and um just a quick explanation as to what that indicator is indicating. And that is the blue line is essentially an RC that also takes into consideration volume. The black line is just a straight our side standard settings. And the way I’ve got the color coding working on the indicator is when you get the real dark colors, the dark red or dark green, which there’s no dark green showing on this chart. That means that the money flow is lagging the RSE in extreme territory. So right here the RC was higher then the money flow and the RC did make it into extreme territory. So that theoretically from time to time can be a more powerful signal. And then a lot of times what I’m doing here is I’m putting a little pink line one bar after the there is no longer an extreme territory condition on either the sea or the or the money flow. The money flow in order to be extreme needs to be above 90 Um on the R. S. I. In order to be I think that’s right. R. S. I. has to be above 70 and money flow has to be above 80, that’s what it was. So money flow has to be above 80 to be extreme and below 20 to be extreme, Whereas the RNC has to be above 70 to be extreme and below 30 to be extreme. And um it is interesting to note How well this indicator serves us most of the time. Not 100 of the time, but most of the time. Um, so um, like for instance, as soon as the overbought territory on both indicators ended all of a sudden, instead of any pink or dark pink zones down here, there was back to white and that came in at this candle right here, which is actually one candle earlier than we got the cell signal on and it would have caught a huge move the next day. This would have been a beautiful indication of a low here. This is once again a very excellent, excellent indication of high, but notice uh during a trend you might get some false signals in there, but when it’s finally done, um, it all, once it offers up a pretty solid signal. Another really good indication here. Another very excellent indication here and now we’re back in overbought territory. Um Yeah, um on money flow, the money flow into him Is set to 14 as is the sea. So they’re set the same. Yeah, it’s just that money flow does take into consideration um volume. And you can see how, you know, this indicator was very helpful. Several, several junctures. Yes, it’s the standard setting. It’s very helpful at some important junctures as we move through this chart. And I found that it, and the only time That it really gives early signals is a lot of times during the wave three During the way three. It’ll give you indication of overbought In this case, maybe around the way three of 3 And then again during the way five. And if it’s been overbought for an extended period of time, you get quite a long length of time before it finally let’s go and we’ll see that I’m quite a bit as we move through the different charts. Uh, I’ve got to work faster now. Um, um, and then, um, one other new thing that uh, that I’ll be incorporating quite a bit will be um, and I showed this last week. I’m not going to speak a lot about it this week. And that is that uh, the algo is putting up much better back testing numbers with this new entry system that after a long a long signal candle, I was saying entry cattle last week after a long signal candle instead of getting in at market on the next candle, it looks for a pullback and the size of the pull back to look for is shown in the verbiage, probably a premium plan member. So, uh, if you have a a buy signal that comes in, that would be a signal candle. But it has one of these little circles on it. That means that it was an unusual way long Signal candle and that typically you get a decent sized pullback after that kind of candle. And in this case it looks for 100 190 tick pull back before and before it gets long sets the stop below the entry point. And what that has enabled it to do is to quit getting stopped out as much when it gets a signal that comes in on a long candle now, once and while you have one like this where you get a, this is a bicycle candle and it was a long candle and it would have put in a limit order to buy about down in here and it never felt. And if that order doesn’t fill on the daily charts on the next day, so it’s a day order and if the order doesn’t fill in the next day it is canceled and it just doesn’t do it, it doesn’t mess with it, It waits for the next signal. But these the back tests are coming in with better winning percentages and more um dollars produced um over the long haul. Um But notice how difficult the trading environment has been since mid-November loser. A winner or a loser it never filled this order. Yeah. It’s just been shopping in such a narrow fashion. Higher. Uh This is very likely some kind of ending diagonal turned out to be an expanding when I think on the Dow Jones industrial average and we’re awfully close to the top in my opinion. For now, I’m looking for a pullback and a lot of that’s going to count to be uh um Kind of contingent on the U. S. Dollar notice the U. S. Dollars moving into a very large nest. This is and it hasn’t quite hit its Fibonacci target down there yet. But this is on the U. S. Dollar because it is us dollar versus other currencies. I use both peaks and troughs. So I’m going to use put on a composite line and we’re going to see that when the U. S. Dollar bottoms sue very soon, it’s near a target could bottom at any moment, frankly. It’s so one sided. Now that data is now suggesting Jan 14 keeps moving the date. And then from the point that it bottoms to the point that the peaks and that that’s in August one right there, There’s July 20. So I’m looking for rebounding in for the entire first half based on hers of 2021. This will be a risk off environment where the dollar gains and stocks correct and commodities correct. And then after that you get what kind of looks like, You know it’s going to be very likely a wave three to the downside. And this on nothing has ever changed on the Hurst in years. It’s been expecting This collapse in the US. dollar down through there’s October of 2023 October 2023. This would be a would probably um be accompanied by obviously inflation commodities screaming higher stocks moving higher. And so this is suggesting that Goodburn has a very good chance of being correct on this count and that we haven’t seen the top yet and that the top of the stock market may not in fact come until we get to 2023 inflation but not until approximately July So this this initial wave one, it felt like it lasted forever. But look how big this is going to be on the way down. So this is probably one two, 3, 4, 5 down, something like that. This hasn’t changed in a very long time. Goodburn is looking at exactly the same cycles and that’s why I’ve decided to make a commitment at the beginning of this year to being an inflationist at least over the next couple of years and in then becoming up, you know, bearish. So I think once again, what that suggests is that Prechter is still early on wanting to call a grand Supercycle top and probably by a couple of years again. Uh This is S and P little simpler road map here on the S and P. Looking for a B. Wave top here and looking for a move to the downside. Um here’s the daily candle. So three ways down for an a. three waves up for a wave be the target for way be was 37 44. And the high tech so far is 37 56. So just barely overshot it by 12 S. And P. Points back here on Tuesday. Didn’t make quite make a new high on the cash index on Friday, like the Dow did, and then looking for a five wave down structure. Um And if the top is in on the S. And P. That would be down to 31 36. It could go lower, could move back to the way four of one lesser degree. But in my opinion, that may not happen until we get over towards mid-year. This could be a three way of structure. Take that is a corrective structure that eventually gets back to the way for one lesser degree. They’ll be around 29 65 but they may, that may not happen until august and if it happens early, which I think we need to keep an eye out for that maybe may June time frame. Um, you notice on this daily chart that I put that same money flow indicator on there and um, it really does, I’ve changed the colors where they’re much more bold because I think this is showing some important stuff, some important timing information. So it did a real good job of pinpointing the debt. I was probably in for their same thing here and back here. It was a little early on the daily, but still a nice warning that bottom was coming and we don’t really have any extremes. Since then, we’re awfully close to one right now on a daily chart, but in order to, to see the extremes, we might need to look at a 240 minute chart with an indicator, here’s the 240 minute chart. And on the E. S. Contract and I’m calling this a triangle here and the thrust of the triangle being in expanding Ending Diagonal in this case one, 23 45, each leg of it should be a three Wave five has easily met its minimum. There’s the orange five minimum. And the reason is because Orange four came down within just a couple of ticks of taking out orange too. But it didn’t. I showed this last week that this was impossible scenario, that because this didn’t take out this low back here, that could be wave four of an expanding diagonal and then looking for an abc to the upside. So A. B. and then 1 2345. So all the subdivisions are there for a top. Also noticed that um And I’ve been using this type of targeting more lately is looking for an end of wave. See in purple that is has a Fibonacci expansion relationship to the length of way of A. So um wave C in purple would equal yeah With a .618 expansion of a. At 37 56 a quarter. And on Friday we hit 37 53. . So um usually a wave. Uh This is a zigzag. A. B. C. Well usually Zigzag will stop at either a .382 expansion of waves .32 in this case 2.618 expansion. You have it on the left side, I don’t know what you’re talking about there. Um Anyway, yeah I’ve got it associated with this little dotted line right here and that that that target was established once wave A was in so it’s been established since then anyway. Um That target value is 37 56 and a quarter 37 56 a quarter. You’re welcome. Uh on the daily trend, it’s not suggesting there’s any, you know anything at issue right now at all. And here’s kind of a, even though we have What basically amounts to a new new high there and and a buy signal in the final 240 minute candle of the year notice that it was so quick to the upside that it didn’t really have time to get into overbought territory. So we’re still just out of overbought, just we’re just exiting overbought territory. To me, this candle represents is sort of a microcosm of 2020 itself. One last knife in the back with a nice twist on it. Um, I’ve taken the new entry signals that after long entry candles look for a little bit of a pullback before they get in. I’ve applied that to the S. And P. And it’s made improvements there as well. Notice the winning percentage over the last three years. A dramatic improvement. 49 winners, 35 losers. Average winner, $3,567. Average loser, 1600 dollars. So the average winners over twice the size of the average loser. These big green blocks are the winners. The red blocks are the are the dark red blocks or the losing trades. As you can see, there’s a lot more winners and losers and the size of the losers is never larger. An X. Amount, never larger than you know the size of the stop. And this uses a 39 Stop for lungs and a 33 point stop for shorts. If you don’t like the idea of using a $2,000 stop and trading one full contract at the time. These Um very same identical signals can be applied to the Micro E. Minis which have 1/10 of the value of a full-sized contract. Uh So it’s doing well very well, much improved as a matter of fact from what we had before and what we had before. It was very good. I’m going to scream forward next. Uh You know the sentiment. It’s obviously been very rich during this entire kind of upward grind that we saw. Um 87 83 back here on November 24 and 85 on December 17 and just stayed up. It’s been stayed up for a while. But notice we do have a little red block. Yes. Uh Oh and I forgot to show you. I want to show you one other thing on the on the A. M. A. Algo. This is premium plan members get these signals and can charts every night every night. So when we run this three year back test using if the current settings had been in place Over the past three years, um Here’s the results, Winning percentage, 58 average winner over twice the size, the average loser, You know how, how much of an account sizes required to run the strategy from the start. If you started it exactly three years ago, what the maximum closed out drawdown was noticed at one point, it did experience five losers in a row, but at one point had experienced six winners in the room. But because the losers are capped with the stop, there’s the equity curve. Um and shows the amount of profits brought in, starts pretty close to zero and ended up with 120 k. Of profits over three years. And that’s using all trades. If you want to, just look at the long trades, there’s the equity curve there, you just look at the short trades, there’s the equity curve. Um, if you remember that, showing the equity curve last week on the Dow Jones industrial average, it is smoother than this, it is smoother. And um long trades, There was 55 long trades short trades, there was 29, just thought I’d show that, but as a quick reminder, um, Absolutely, Jack you, these, you get these, you get screenshots every night as a premium plan member. And as I mentioned last week, if you’re sick of Elliott Wave and in um, cycles and you want to try something different, um, I’ve got it, I’ve got it for you. Um, you know, I don’t show the equity curves every night or anything like that, but I can always show the equity curves on the, on the settings easy enough. And I have to hold a quarterly webinar for premium plan subscribers where we go over all of this stuff. But um, so if I run, run this one, this is on the Dow Jones industrial average and we look at the equity curve on that. It’s pretty similar considering all the trades, but it’s still pretty smooth on the long trades and on the short trades, still pretty smooth. It took 35 long trades In 28 short trades. And the reason it trades slightly less than it did before is because, um, if, if the, you don’t get that pull back after a long entry candle, like here within one day, if the next day it doesn’t pull back then it skips it and it waits for the next signal. Yeah. I don’t hide anything from anybody on this. You know, from premium plan members. Algo do not care if you are in a bull or bear market. It’s able to establish that on its own how it does that is um this this adaptive moving average in a way acts as a trend. And it and when it is red, dark red like it was right through here. It will only take shorts when it is green, which it would started being green right here and it’s still green. It noticed that it will only take long. It hasn’t attempted any short signals as long as that thing is green. Okay. And so the requirement is that not only do the A. M. A. must be green and the Walter Bressert must be on a green cross over in order for a long signal to be considered. Notice that the M. A. Very first day the A. M. A. And the M. A. Is based on slope. So it started sloping to the upside here. At one day prior the Walter Bressert started put and put in a green cross over. And so all conditions were met for long. But when that candle was longer than ordinary, it put a little circle here and said, you know, put in us a limit. You know the nightly report that night would have said you’ve got to buy signal. You look at the chart, you see it’s got a circle and you put a limit order too 190 ticks or 190 Dow points below the open of the following candle. And you associate And ordered a stop order with that on a long position of 320 points below that. And when that fills, not only does it get long, it puts in the stop for you. That might happen while you’re in bed asleep, doesn’t matter. And then you get up and you check your email every night. You look at it and you say and you go okay we’re good, it’s continuing to move higher. The stop is still down here, doesn’t use a trailing stop, doesn’t use a trailing stop. What it uses essentially for stop. And the reason it gets these huge winners is it waits till it gets across over the Walter breast. Start with its moving average that little dot right there. And then and that says get out and that gets out at market the next candle. What causes what constitutes a long candle? Is um um buried back in here. There’s uh and I can’t spend a lot of time on this here. It’s more for the quarterly uh webinar which I’ll be showing. But I use the true range indicator and then I put a moving average on the true range. And if that day if that true range closes above the moving average which is a back tested moving average um then uh that little bar is green. And that means that like for instance right here that was a long entry candle because that little hissed a gram bar was green. Had it been gray? Like it was right here, had it been gray? Then it would and then it doesn’t look for a big pull back, it just gets in the market. And that turned out really well right there. Uh So that’s and the moving average that is used on the true range is um a parameter this back tested and optimized. So all in all um continue. I’ve been working for years on this and continuing to improvement with the approve it with the help of my son Andrew and um I really think we’ve got any strong position this year to do well. Does it lose on trades? Yeah, everybody loses on trades from time to time. But it’s the thing that’s beautiful about it is it’s relentless. It just doesn’t give up. It can continue even after five losses in a row and the draw down. Um And which does happen in automated trading. And if you can’t stand that, I had one guy, he um subscribe to the premium plan seven This last month and the NASDAQ gave a sell order. So he sold it and ended up getting stopped out. And he immediately dropped, dropped down the plant one loss, 1 one losing trade. You know, if your risk of loss is that if that’s what kind of person you are, and that’s okay, If that’s what you are, you just need to know that that’s what the way you are then, um, then here’s probably the way you trade, you decide, you know what, I’m going to get long here. And um, and even though the the Algo says to, to get out, I’m going to stick with it, I’m not going to lose, I’m not going to lose on one trade ever. And that is what makes, that is a absolute prerequisite of a bad trader. They will not accept the systematic a systematic loss based on a pre designed plan. And if you don’t take those losses when things don’t work out your in your way and your way, you end up in these massive, you can end up in a massive looting, losing trade and you lose your ability to trade the market anyway, that’s all stuff for um premium, frankly, premium plan. I got to get moving on this webinar. So I’ll expect me to move much quicker. A lot of the things that don’t, a lot of, a lot of these items I’m going to show you, um, this week haven’t changed much, you know, that last week of the year, there wasn’t a heck of a lot really happened that last week the year is pretty, pretty mild. Um And yes, Doug, that’s just it about this Algo, because it gives every trade the chance to build into, um, build into a trend. It gives every trade and equal opportunity to build into a trend. And guess what some of them do. And those are the home runs to use a base baseball. Those are the home runs. That’s the power hitting that it does in the meantime. Yeah, It’s striking out it’s grounded out sometimes. Um, but on, especially with this new system, I I think we can get the winning percentage above 50 and still do just a little above 50 on most items and still do extremely well because the average size of the average winter as compared to the average size of loser. But it’s something that, you know, you’re either acclimated that direction onto an automated trading or not. But if you had been acclimated to that direction last year, you would have done probably a hell of a lot better than hanging out trying to trade someone’s Elliott Wave camp. Sorry, sorry to say it. But there it is. And I don’t care whose Elliott Wave count it was. Goodburn has been looking for a correction after he thought five waves up was done back in June July and was looking for a normal way to corrections. Since then, um, I can tell you this the higher your winner, winning percentage, the less difference there’s going to be between the size of your average winter and your size of your average loser. That’s a fact. Yeah, please. So NASDAQ, you’ll notice that I’ve placed, um, that bullish alternate on here, that this low in March was a burgundy wave for we’ve only seen a black wave one. We’re going to see a black wave to through mid year and then 345 on up. So that’s essentially Goodburn’s count. He also has the potential of the NASDAQ moving up into the high teens But also dropping back to about 10001st Before topping in the high teens. Like just under 20,000. That’s why I’ve drawn it. Goodburn also has this is a wave one and then an expanded flat do next. He doesn’t think it’s got this thing going on in it. You know, he’s really thinking that the expanded flat the way beyond the expanded flight is very likely in and that whatever dip we take next and once it’s done that, that should be bought with both fists. Um So on the daily chart of trying to simplify it as much as possible, 83 waves down for an A. Three waves up for a be noticing the NASDAQ, we haven’t Blue B hasn’t even hit this 1.382 target yet. That’s up at 13-186. It seems to be wanting to top at a slightly lower target, where way be blue would be equal to wave a blue times 1.236. Right? So um And then as we moved to the 240 minutes chart, there’s the September too high. And just to put this into perspective, um many items showed five waves up through the September too high and they are involved in an expanded flat. Whereas some items like the Australian dollar, the Euro, they didn’t there five wave up structure from the March Low didn’t end an early September it’s ending about now. And this would be the end of the five wave up structure and then um downward movement down through uh for a wave to so if this was the end of a five wave of structure, like an Australian dollar would look for a way of to pull back to the way for of one lesser degree. And so that’s probably going to be back to, you know, this September lows. The question is, how long is that going to take? And I think it’s going to take till at least May Denis says, what kind of news will trigger sell off next week. Well, um, it could be that, um, there’s a lot of people wanted to take profit on this frothy market, but they waited that they didn’t want to do it and paid the capital gains during last year. And as soon as the year starts, they won’t take some profit here could be just profit taking. There could be one thing that would do it, trigger it. And I think that’s the most likely. As, you know, it’s pretty easy to get on the internet and find out that, um, how frothy this market is from the sentiment perspective. No, I just think it be profit taking is all. Yeah. See this the fact that $600 checks are theoretically going out right now. And I think there’s a pretty good chance that whatever additional stimulus is going to happen, it’s going to be after the new congress convenes, there’d probably be some infighting depends on, of course, a lot of it depends on what happens in Georgia. Um, but if the republicans stay in control of the Senate by taking Georgia, and I think there’s a decent possibility that that happens, um, I think they will make it difficult for Biden and the democrats to get much past, they’re going to be standing away of a lot of it. And it, and it could be that there’s bickering for months and months and maybe around mid-year, let’s say major in July, they come together with something, you know, one thing they can, I think agree on is, um, you know, some sort of infrastructure bill, but it’s, you know, the democrats are probably going to want to spend a hell of a lot more in the republicans and it’s going to take them that may take them that long. Two come to some sort of agreement and get something done. You know, that maybe that may be why we get this pullback for, you know, the, almost the entire first half of the year, it’s just one possible idea. You know, there’s, let’s face it, we don’t know, maybe this new strain of coronavirus really takes hold and, and, and the shots don’t, don’t address it. You know, any number of things are possible. Um, so Three ways down from September to through September 22 and then a three wave of structure, there’s those two Fibonacci targets I mentioned earlier and there’s another important Fibonacci target here. And that is if you measure this As the length of one, the length of wave a. And you expand that by very popular, very common .382. That’s a really common target for the end of a wave. See There would be a .382 expansion off the top of pink a. And this has been very choppy as it has gradually made its way up. I think a pretty good explanation for what’s going on is that it’s in a contracting ending diagnosed on the on the NQ three waves up for wave one wave 2, three waves up for wave three way 4, extend one in three. And it looked like it could have ended here. Um because there was a slight throw over and then we have another bit of throw over business going on and this looks like it was an A. And A. B. So need five waves up from this low right here. One, 2, 3 45. So it’s probably in the fifth wave up. It probably has a few more ticks too, you know that it needs to put in to the upside. Very, very scant. Few though, in my opinion, and it continues to diverge These 240 minutes charts will be going out to premium plan members nightly as well to assist in a little bit shorter term timing than what the daily charts have to offer. Um And they incorporate three or 4 different systems. Um But generally when we draw arrows on these 240 minute 80 X plus charts, if we get a green triangle within a green box, then we consider that, you know, a long signal. And if we get a red triangle with within a red box and we consider that a cell signal. So currently. Oh and if you get a block, if you get one of these red Walter breast or blocks inside a brown box that that says that’s saying get out because it’s running out of momentum inside of extreme territory. The brown zone above 40 on the entered a chart on the A. D. X. And then it got long hair got out here and then it’s waiting for another green or triangle or red triangle. And it didn’t get one a green triangle in a green box or red triangle in a red box that didn’t get one until here. And that produced some upward movement, then it got it wasn’t it was no longer in a green box and it got one of those blocks. So that means get out and then I got a cell signal here and now it’s no longer in the in the paint box, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the cell signal is over because it doesn’t have any kind of indicators of no green block, no upward arrow. And so we’re going to be drawing kind of the black arrows that suggests yeah, this looks good. We got a green triangle in a green box. It was and that means really suggested entry. And then the grey arrows are they suggested exit. So here’s suggested entry, suggested exit, suggested entry suggested exit. And once again this is going to go out to premium plan members every night so they get a little bit shorter term indicators that may assist in um entries. I’ve applied the same system that’s pickier about its entries and egg and uh and if it’s, if it gets an entry signal or a signal candle with a very long, it looks for a pullback before it gets in. But the amazing thing about the NASDAQ is it’s been so bullish for so long that the, the pullback on long orders, it only is only seven ticks on back testing. It says even on a long entry candle, get in there Just with expecting a 1.75 point pullback is all, whereas on short signals, it’s a lot pickier and if it gets a a signal to shortage is saying we wait for a pullback of 9.5 points before getting short. So what that actually kind of does is it calls out some of the shorts and leaves you with more longs and shorts, which obviously would have been the right move in recent years on the NASDAQ notice the new indicators that the money flow versus our aside down here, showing you the point that the overbought area ends. Nice signal. Another one here. Yeah. You know, it’s indicating that it’s running it is running out of upward scene, but you know, it’s, it’s managed to grind its way back up to slight new highs, but nothing more than that really. Um, Russell um, on the wrestle, this is important. I’ve decided to call the top end and the wrestle. I decided to call the top in and um, and I decided to change my account. I’ve been looking for a away four somewhere up in here and never got it. I think the way the way three and the way four happened down here and that it’s probably done going up Very near a target where way five would be Equal to the one through 3 Times .618. It’s overshot that law by a little bit. But now it’s a trendline resistance. This is a trendline resistance going back to the 2011 low through the March low of this year, putting a parallel copy at this high and it has now reached that. And we’re in overbought territory on a weekly chart. So looking in at the daily, the Russell has put in a little bit more of a pullback than any of the other US indices. Um, and you can see even on the RC on this daily chart, this kind of wedge formation that showed in overbought territory on the sea, I think that’s probably a pretty significant top in the Russell and that we’re going to see a pullback. I’m showing it as an ABC zig zag back to the way four of one lesser degree. Through down through, approximately July. Do beware though? I want to say, I don’t want to make the same mistake again. Is these, these Hurst? It’s uh these troughs, there’s been so many buyers that want to come into the market with all the free money, it’s been thrown at the market and thrown out there out there. Um, I’m looking, I’m going to start looking for uh these significant bottoms to come in earlier then, hurst says, and I think that would be prudent moving forward. Things seem to be kind of hurried up in these markets. Um, on the trend chart you can see on daily trend sharp, we got brown boxes indicating the 80 X. Was over 60 got the all-time high here and then we have the end of a green box. So the Russell is the first on the daily trend falling templates to end the green bis own box. And it did that starting on Wednesday of last week, and now it’s down, starting to flirt with the adaptive moving average as well as the um at volatility stop. Um So it’s seen it has definitely seen a more downward movement than any of the other items so far um notice that it was getting, it was down in oversold territory here and so on. The very, very short term, it’s uh suggesting on the 240 minutes chart that we’re in a bounce. But it’s been saying that for a little while, so look, look for the end of these overbought and oversold zones for a potential move to the downside. And then to the upside On the to not only the 240 minutes chart, but on um I’m also putting them on the algo chart charts. The Daily Algo charts notice on December 29 we have the end of a very prolonged period of overbought on the part of either the R. S. I. Or the money flow. The money flow said several times during this recent last putsch was lagging the RC. That’s why we got the dark red. And so this is, this is looking like we may have seen the top tech on the Russell. Um Same thing on the on the U. W. M. The bullish three times bullish Russell, E. T. F. It um finally has run out of being in this extended period of overbought on either the R. S. I. Or the money flow. Um Same thing on the three times Bearish Russell. So we put that line right there just to end the week, we’ve we now Have the end of extreme oversold territory on the T. W. M. two times. Bearish Russell. So the Russell. Um after really outperforming for the last two or three months got into such a screaming up move. It looks like it may give up first. Whereas you know the other items really been kind of grinding higher in diagonals not to wrestle. It was it was really kind of thrusting higher in 1/5 wave. So in the case of the Russell we’re not we’re looking for a way to pull back next. Have You know uh could be as much as a .618. Redress retrace.
I don’t really have much new to show you on the um large popular what I call the popular stocks. Apple snuck up and made it ever so slight New high by a tick or two and then closed in what looks like a reversal candle on the apple. So um if I were Goodburn, I’d say, okay, this is a wave, this this diagonal was not an ending angle, it was a lead, it was a leading diagonal. And now we’re going to get a pullback through about mid year for Wave two and Apple is going to go much higher. I’m going to show that on my uh on my charts moving forward, but there’s ample it’s still on the weekly chart, not quite out of its uh up move yet. The all-time high in Apple now is on December 29, but the land in the last couple of days of the week, pretty weak. Um and on the 240-minute chart on Apple, the um we got a brown box. The trend was overextended. We’ve got a Walter breath sir, in the brown box. So uh it’s really not suggesting being along this stock anymore. So we seem to be giving up some uh from what may have been the top tick for now until about mid-year. You know um on a lot of these other stocks um I think it’s worth looking at just the trend charts instead of the L. E. Wave. Yes, we’re still in the green box on Amazon, but September two high is still held. Um Even Boeing seems to be giving back some now, it it seems to be tired. It had a nice move up move for a while, but now it’s on cell signals. Disney’s had a spectacular move to the upside, but it’s in a brown box being that the uptrend is quite overextended Facebook and the all-time highs still standing since August 26, it’s just been grinding sideways and if anything, it looks weak to me. Uh it’s in no man’s land really google. Um I saw an ending diagonal pattern Moving up into the December three high. It has pulled back substantially from that high uh since then and it’s still and ended and kind of in no man’s lands, neither in a green box or red box, but I think there’s a decent chance google is put in a high for now. Um potentially diagonal up from Um the December 2018. Yeah. Once again, if I was Goodburn just label that as another. Yet another way one. It may be in blue A diagonal for wave one and it would look for a pullback through let’s say may before it started gaining strength moving higher. So you know, looking for down through mid-year. Yeah. . Microsoft December yeah. Microsoft The all-time high is still standing from September two. So this one is really lagging Netflix. The all-time minds still standing from December three, just sideways junk. Ever since Tesla is still making all-time highs. But in the case of Tesla on my Elliott wave chart where we’re nearing sume Fibonacci targets up here for potential highs on Tesla. I’ll be looking on a weekly chart for Tesla to for no longer to be in this um, zone, this dark zone, red zone on the RC versus money flow indicator, which I’m going to be putting on all of the, all of these and Walmart, there’s a decent chance that tops in on Walmart for now and it’s been moving down ever since its all-time high on December one.
VIX, Put-Call Ratio, and Advance-Decline Ratio:
Okay. Got speed up. Kind of speed up. Just got the last week of football season here. . No. Huh? All kidding aside. I think um I’ve got a feeling this is going to be a great year for trading. I really do you know um if the market’s going to roll over here, VIX would need to start moving back up in another spike. The low for the year on the VIX was November 27. And um the advance decline line, you can see that we ended the year at an all-time high. And yet the advance decline uh has been um obviously um diverging from price since late November. So the last really the last uh six weeks or so of the year, terrible trading environment. There was there was very little movements in the stock market. Yeah, it uh you know, moves slightly higher in a probably a diagonal in many items. And diagonals are often deeply for retrace doesn’t matter if they are leading or ending diagnosed, they are typically deeply retraced. And the reason is because yes the volatility is low during a diagonal. It chops its way grinds its way in a direction very mildly very corrective lee even though it’s trending ever so slightly and that sort of thing doesn’t last long and it usually cuts loose, breaks loose into some more aggressive movement. So I’m looking for a correction back to the wave of one lesser degree on the S&P. And that means that the put call ratio which is showing a little bit of divergence here. Um I think moves to the upside. It’s still quite historic. Um one sidedness where the hell of a lot more um calls are being held. Yeah then puts, amazingly we had the 10 day simple moving average of the total book called ratio. Um start moving to the upside on December 10 but it didn’t seem to affect stocks.
Sectors and ETF’s:
Much stocks continue to kind of grind in that um in the diagonal but um I think there’s a decent chance that we kind of get a wave three type of thing to the upside uh in the total protocol. And that will be the kickoff to um the correction that will last I think until at least may at least may on many of these things. Um I’m going to glance through very quickly. Um But on some of them I’ve tried to acknowledge the possibility that after I a pullback through, let’s say at least May, you know, mid-year they were going to get away three to the upside in in stocks and many sectors start with XLE. So in XLE, I I think there’s some additional pullback for wave two and um I think that when we get to the middle of the year XLE would have already given us a one and a two. So right now I think there’s a small degree one to need to I think move lower in the wave to next. Um This would be wave A. This would be way be. I don’t think it’s moved quite low enough. I’m looking for it to move back to the way four of one lesser degree. That’s at 34 81 on X. L. E. Before we start getting a bounce there. Yeah could be the large cap oil might be uh something that has a bit more lift than other items because it’s still deeply over sold. Um Historically nowhere near nowhere near all-time highs there. Um uh On transports. Um I think there’s a decent chance we have topped in the transports and we’re going to move down through mid-year. Um And but then we have new all-time highs after that. Here’s a closer look at the transfer through importation average. No big change there. But looking for generally a pullback down through early July there on utilities have changed. I’ve added the possibility that there’s a Still a 5th wave up to go in utilities. But if even if that’s the case I’m looking for a pullback through mid-year for that gets going to the upside on K. B. E. Um Yeah. Generally looking for a pullback through late May There will be an a. In the next 18-month cycle trough. Um The movement up from the march load is corrective on on K. B. But looking for that pullback there as well. Um Very well it could be a very noisy pull back with the new high in it. So we will have to see. But at this juncture um we’ve been diverted. This item has been diverging all year. I’m sorry diverging since um mid-November and it’s due for a larger pullback. Um Trying to move fast here. Um Next major by point on the marijuana stocks. Midyear I. B. B. I might get one more push up to hit a Fibonacci target At 162 50 From this level. If this is a triangle right here in IBB 12345, it needs 1/5 wave ups. Could be we see a bit of resilience in biotech real estate. You notice on many of these, I’m putting that pink or green stripe shortly after the new in uh combined money flow and R. C. Indicator suggests a top or a bottom. And here’s an example of one that didn’t work very well because it just continued to grind higher even after moving out of abroad. So it isn’t foolproof. You could get divergence but a lot of times I would say three out of four times that I went through and marked a lot of charts with these. There was no divergence. There was no to for instance, there was here where it continued higher even though it moved out of overbought territory. Um Homebuilders. This is a change in homebuilders, but the fact is that a change in real estate? Yeah. Uh down really through mid-year there may be a new high and involved in the middle of it. Home builders down through into the maybe the third quarter and then moving up. And remember here’s an item, remember the Hurst analysis on the Dow Jones industrial average that it would Voters put in an ending diagonal through mid-2022. Well this is Mid 2022 is about right here. So this is kind of that idea That it’s possible that this move to the upside was not a five, it was a three and ended with a little diagonal to finish the wave see and now we get a bunch of threes and then up and down diagonal Pattern the topping. Maybe in late 2022. Something like that. Same idea on XRT. Retail. This is a new count on retail and accounts the entire upward movement from the March low as a corrective ABC and that being wave one of an ending contracting diagonal. So when I said a similar Fibonacci target for 1/5 wave that I showed you on the very long term charts on the Dow Jones industrial average at the beginning. Uh we got a target of 86 86 on the XRT. And look how close, how far this has traveled toward that goal. So this could easily be in a wave one of an ending contracting diagram where wave one is the longest, three is shorter than one and then five ends up being shorter than three. But um, I got to tell you the subdivisions work out pretty well. And so did the Fibonacci targets got a couple of right in the middle of a zone of Fibonacci targets up here. So this is an idea that may play out in a number of items that this rocket ship move up. Uh, from the March Low is wave one of what will eventually be in a contracting, ending diagonal. And the reason is because the eventual target is too close for it to be a non-overlapping impulse to that target From the March low.
Baltic Dry Index & Shippers:
I’m only going to show the Baltic dry index very quickly. Uh huh. And the Baltic dry index has been bouncing out of that way too low. You know, it never did hit my target, but it has been bouncing nicely out of that and below. The only thing is it’s looking overbought on the daily chart, 80 x is above 40 and retail sentiment seems to be overbought. Everything seems to be overbought and it seems to be losing some upward momentum right here
And right now if you believe that stocks in the stock market are going to move down through mid-year and your long some of these stocks and you wanted to start taking some profit here. I don’t think it would hurt anything because um I don’t know if that how well Baltic dry index is going to be able to buck the trend of what we’re going to see in the U. S. Dollar and that is bottom very soon. And then to move up through in the dollar through July. So it could be that the better if a person is up real big on a few screamers here might take some off the table and then look to buy again in July maybe as early as may gold and gold miners. Looking for a way to um to finish after this five-wave up structure. And I think we’ll need another leg down on GDX in order to finish a double zigzag to the downside. Here’s the daily chart and after a five wave up structure from the March Low ending in early august ABC for W. Than an ABC for X. Than an A. An A. B. C. For B. And I just think it needs to finish um Downside move Targeting way for the way for one lesser degree. These have kind of lost favor over the last little bit and I think they’re going to lose favor a little bit more before the next um Solid buying opportunity target is 31 22 on G. D. X. I was able to improve the GDX Algo with the new entry system um whenever it produces a buy signal um Look for a pullback from the open of the following candle, uh 72 cents and place a limit buy there. It’s the way this out goes working as far as sell orders after it produces a cell signal candle. If it is a long candle that’s shown by the circle, then it looks to get short after a pullback of 28 since from the opening price of the following candle. Um I will say this. Um, This did improve things substantially, got the winning percentage real close to 50 and improve the profitability of it. These signals could be used on nugget or dust depending on whether it’s a buy or a sell signal. But um, right now you’ll notice the AMA Is generally sloping to the downside. That means we’re in a downtrend and until that Amma turns back green, which means price probably needs to close above it like it did for one candle here. That would be the earliest we would see a buy signal on, on GDX would, we would need a green. Um, I am a one notice that this has been such a gradual choppy mess that none of the winners or losers are very big. It’s a corrective, difficult to trade period and um, if we did get kind of a watch out move To back down to the wave four of 1 lesser degree. Um I think we would see we would get some um a green block in in the money flow index. And then as soon as that green block is finished and it’s, it exits, the green blog should produce a nice bicycle, which he did um a really good job on that candle right there uh suggesting that did stop moving down for now. I’m probably going to move up for a while, which it did for months. So it be nice to see that produce a buying opportunity. Uh huh. You know these um you know when we look at the my, oh my account ah You know, looking for upward movement to 74 22. If we do get a pull back to $30, that is about 2.5 times, you know, From $30 a share to $75 a share. Be a spectacular move, especially if you could catch it in. Uh Either some of the underpriced mid-tier miners at the time or with NUGT or JNUG. . So be looking for that um After some more of a pullback, the thing that’s a little worrisome to me as if the pullback in the U. S. Dollar. I mean if the dollar is going to gain starting within a few days up through July, you know, hell with this rally that much during that period. Um But this the Hurst roadmap has been working well here. Um maintain says last week, s a show to bottom of February 3rd. Yeah, and notice the FSS is showing February 16, so it could take a little while for this last leg to develop. Um And this will be something will have to work out this year. I didn’t really prepare that much, work this week on it. I don’t think it’s the time to buy these yet, but I think that’s coming because I think this is impulsive and I think this is corrective. I don’t see a way really to count this as anything but a corrective move to the downside just very quickly. Uh No changes on silver miners. Looking for that last leg down. Uh Copper miners looking for a leg down next. Um Barrick and AG has been pretty strong looking for a pullback though. Um Barrack has hardly done it, the thing to the upside, very weak look what look, it’s hardly doing a thing. Uh so I’m looking for Barrick back down slightly under $20 Before considering buying that one. And then Newmont, kind of the same thing. I’d like to see a move back below $52 or in the $52 range to finish a corrective W. X. Y. X. Z move. And it very well could be that you know once the dollar gets going off the floor we see, oh just during the first few weeks of the dollar, you know making a knee jerk bounce off of this deeply oversold dollar. . Yes we is when we see these stocks dropped down and the bars just swoop in. Um been looking for an opportunity to buy these lower. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the way it rolls. But yeah not it’s not my time yet, I don’t think on these. Not yet.
Stock Indices Around the Globe:
You’ll be shocked when you see my new count on the Dax. Um It’s you know, I’ve taken inspiration from that idea on the Dow Jones industrial average where you know, we’re going to get this kind of blow off move on. The dollar is going to be, you know, weakening all the way to 2023 and the Dax, you’ll notice that I’m putting a large degree way for would be a cycle degree way for at the 2020 low And I’m counting five waves up through the early September high three wave down structure, a three wave up structure probably finished and looking for a five wave down structure and the Dax. So on the short term it’s bearish on the Dax and I’m looking for as much as a 0.618 pull back and then away three to the upside on the Dax. There’s a, here’s a closer look at the bullish potential on the Dax all the way into. In the mid-2022. A five wave up for one and and then an expanded flat then into let’s say may June July time frame and then on up Eventual target 18 3 71 major top at that time. . I’ve also done the same thing on the entries on the Dax. You know, here’s the thing about the Dax. It takes a big account to trade the Dax. Each ticket is worth a bunch and so, but I was super impressed at how much profit over three years trading one contract at a time this alga was able to put up On the data is almost $300,000. So but these um each contract is worth a ton on this thing. A full-sized contract. Um notice though on the Dax, on on the daily chart we have the end of a of a red zone using the money flow slash our side indicator. And that was on the last day of the year. We have the end of the money flow. Uh, the end of one of these zones. So these have provided some pretty good bye signals and exit signals in this case was only really an exit. I, but I think we’re due for a cell signal on the Dax and I think that we like the decks is likely topped for now. Can we get a pullback through mid-year, potentially fairly deep and then then it’s strong move up. Um, 40 changes count a bit on the footsie and it’s, it’s more immediately bearish on the footsie. I’m looking for the footsie to possibly put in an ending diagonal up into March, but I don’t think that’s going to happen now. I’m, I think that this is very likely a B wave to the upside on the footsie either complete or very nearly. So, you know, there was a giant um reversal candle on the weekly chart last week, You can see that long wick right there, That’s a big reversal count. So there’s a decent chance that the B wave is done uh and that the footsie is going to be weak through mid-year and um so some bears in the footsie through mid-year and then looking for um a very bullish year after that, there’s a closer look at it and it shows this is an ABC, you know, the only, the only thing is I don’t know if I see, you know, enough proper subdivisions to call this have finished move up yet, but um it looks awfully weak to me. . And now we have this uh divergence here and yet another divergence after that where the RC was unable to get back into overbought territory. So that that is actually the price high that happened so far. So that’s the FTSE looks very weak here and I’m not expecting much in the way of upside at all. I’m leaving open the opportunity that it just is going to stubbornly try to hit these fib targets I’ve got for a B wave up here. But the our side is suggesting that it can’t make it. On the Hang Seng I’m just going to just jettison right to the you know hank saying ended uh the last few days with a rally. But I just think it’s a B wave rally. I think it turns right around heads down and the hang saying won’t be a buy until about May, late May according to Hurst. And at that point it is it’s a screaming buy. So this, so this would indicate that we’re we are going to get a stronger dollar between now and approximately mid-year. And it’s going to create a major emerging markets buying opportunity around midyear when we look at E. M. Same thing. Except it’s projecting that that buying opportunity might not occur until all the way to august. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that come in a little earlier than that though. Um And uh and then uh that could be the end of blue too and it can move much higher after that. So then that’s the more bullish roadmap. Look at how we’re in overbought territory on this weekly chart on E. M. And it’s kind of flirting now with dropping out of overbought territory. And uh this does look like a five wave of structure and this looks like a 1234 five. The question is, is the 5th wave finished right now? It’s at an exact double top with the high that occurred back in January. Um I’m going to move those over just a little bit and leave open the possibility that it has just a slight little . A bit more upside. Um The Nikkei is exceedingly over. Uh But at this juncture, looking for a pullback through mid-year. Um the Canadian stock market um generally looking for a pullback through mid-year. Next, that could be a major buying opportunity for a huge move up. And that is if this low here was not a wave one low, but it was a way below. And then we got a one and then an expanded flat For wave two down through August and mid-year is going to create a major buying opportunity. . Australian stock market looking for a pullback through mid-year and then potentially an explosive wave three to the upside at that time, pull back through midyear and nifty and on brazil pull back through mid-year bonds.
Bonds. I’m looking for pull back through mid-year before moving much higher and there would be junk bonds while we get our pull back in the stock market. Uh I think that um bonds will be bid and move up through mid-year. The downward movement in bonds has been very choppy and hesitant to move down. Uh um Yeah, we’ve seen some sideways and downward movement in the Z. B. Contract for instance on this daily chart, but the downward movement is not impulsive. And um we were seeing a bullish divergence down at this low, right here. And if like I say if we see some risk off, I think we’ll see the bonds go up. Same thing in the ZN contract. I think the downward movement has been corrective. We have a bullish divergence showing on the RSI It recently and I think the tendency will be for bonds to move up and yields down.
Now moving to energy oil and gas. I’m going to because these counts haven’t changed much from last week. Really. I’m going to primarily stick with the shorter-term charts and but you’ll get the longer term charts in the screenshots. So I think we’ve been in a B. Wave to the upside on crude oil. I think it’s going to turn right around and head to the downside. So um from the April low 12345 for web that three waves down for wave Hey of an expanded flat and then wave even expanded flat. Um I think topped back on December 18, The target was 48 42. That’s where blue B. Would be equal to blue eight times 1.382 And it overshot that by just a little bit and the high was 49 43. So it overshot it by a buck and I’m looking for it to give way to the downside notice on this daily chart. The money flow indicator, the blue indicator um lagged the RSI. Indicator as the R. S. I. Indicator was in extreme territory. That gave us a dark red stripe for the first time in a long time. Last time we got a dark red stripe, it’s right here. That was on April 25 of 2019. When uh and you can see definitely had embarrassed move after that. So then that already took place. It’s just that I think the bullish seasonality kind of kept things from dropping. It really didn’t cause it to go up that much with it. It kept things from dropping uh much and so we’ve had this to end of the end of the year in crude oil. Um and it really went to sleep ah after the latin, you know, the last few days of the year. I think this is going to break to the downside and uh . Well, we’ll finish um an expanded flat, in which case we would need to see Oil probably get back down toward $33. . Um I’m in the process of back testing and optimizing a lot of everything and I’m done with a lot of things, but I don’t, I still need to apply the new entry system to crude oil and get it optimized. We’ve got to optimize with the old system right now. And so it’s quite a bit more time consuming to optimize using the new system. There’s a lot more parameters to optimize and so I don’t have it completely done but I can tell you this Um on December 21 we saw the exit of a of a RC extreme overbought territory while money flow lagged and that is a bearish signs that usually lasts longer than just a few days. We also have commercials as a percent of open interest now, heavily short on crude oil. Bad sign for the oil bulls right now. Um Natural gas um I think is going to bounce in a five wave structure all the way through the end of January. It is the winter time. We’ve got a we have a regular uh winter wonderland here. Uh huh. In my neck of the woods and you know I’m kind of in the middle of the U. S. Ah I don’t do this very often but I’ll show you something so there’s me and I don’t know if this can think can adjust but yeah I don’t know if I can adjust to that or not. Yes snow lots of snow on the and you know in recent years we haven’t been getting much snow, we haven’t been getting very much snow at all. So we’ve got some snow and ice here recently. Uh So just a little fun little picture out the window. I don’t know if you can see that or not, it’s probably going to melt off pretty quick. Um It usually does but um it’s we’ve seen more snow in the last week, more snowflakes that didn’t really accumulate a whole lot than do we have and it seems like years. . So um with webinar but it’s and so then I think the cold weather that’s um sweeping through is probably going to be beneficial for natural gas prices. Looking for upper moving through late January. Um Let’s see what else here. Look at sentiment. Yeah. . Notice commercials on natural gas are moving up. They’re getting more bullets here. Yeah. Yeah. And you know the commercials as a percent of open interest has really been suggesting for a little while that we were going to get this and you can see the commercials are generally wanting to get longer on natural gas at this time. Uh One of subscribers Greg, he lives way up way up and Edmonton area. He sent me a picture One time I’ll have to dig it out and see if I can find it of a he had taken a plate of spaghetti and set it outside on his patio and taking the spaghetti and wrapped it around the fork and picked up the fork where the spaghetti was draping down off the fork onto the plate, but it was up about a foot off the plate and held it there for a few seconds until it froze. And then he just took his hand off of the, off of the fork and there was frozen. Flash froze just that quick. I’ll never forget that picture. It’s just amazing. So I can’t, I’ve learned my lesson about complaining about cold temperatures When I saw that picture. Let’s see what else we have here. Yeah. You’re the winner when it comes to low temperatures and, and can up and uh, Edmonton, it’s too bad. Too bad. The oil is uh, you have to move to the far edges of the weather. The excitement of Survivable weather sort of be where the oil is not. Edmonton Calgary, yes, sorry about that. So copper, here we go, metals. So copper is showing signs of topping. No. Uh and the um, the spread between the large specs and commercials is as wide as I’ve ever seen it after this uh straight up shot since the March Low. And you’ll notice that when I use the new money flow slash arm, I’ll call it money flow versus R. C. That comprehends exited the heart. So, And it did so back on December 21 and it’s been kind of working its way to the downside. It looks rather bearish at this time. So it very well could be the Coppers finally uh finished its five wave up structure. I think the um it’s either find wave up structure finished here or it’s the end of a wave three here looking for a correction through midyear notice. I’m on my count now, I’m only counted. Is that as the end of the third way when 2, 1, 2, 3 for three and then four over here through mid-year and then on up. Um so I’ve placed Um one of those lines manually. I wish I could find a way to get it to do that automatically and I’ve tried, I can’t figure it out yet. one as soon as those overbought periods end and so this could be a strong signal down. This one did signal some downward activity. So did this one, this one did a little not much, but then, you know, we were in interest in a wave three at that point, this was an outstanding by signal and this was too early. This was a really good cell signal here. So you see, not every one of them is perfect, but a lot of them are. And uh so I think this new um, indicator that’s visually, I think pretty appealing and easy to see um is going to be very helpful on all timeframes of charts moving forward. And it’s kind of simple. You can see the copper ended the, on the daily trend following template ended the year with a sell signal on the 80 x. And, and it’s not in a pink box yet, but if we get any kind of clothes and we did, we got to close below the adaptive moving average. And so we’re within an eyelash of of the pink box, a pink cell zone box to appear on copper. So I think copper has topped Also in the 240 minutes chart, you can see on December 30 that we’ve got our very first cell signal, a DXL signal inside a pink I am a cell zone box. We got there for the first time on December 30, I’ve been trying very hard to come up with an algo, the Kanata trade. Uh, copper successfully. I still can’t, can’t, Can’t get it to do it not over the long haul. It’s that I can only achieve winning percentages about of about 35%. No matter how hard I try. Um, and I think that’s what I ended up here. These green boxes do represent. Um, so I was, I was trying this real hard last night. Yeah, 33 winning percentage Just front in 26,000 over three years. It just goes to show that not every item moves smoothly enough and trends smoothly enough to be auto traded successfully and I just haven’t found a way to get this, get it done. That’s the reason I don’t have copper on the nightly report for a premium plan members. Although these, I need to do some more work on this, but these green, based on current settings, these big green boxes would have been winners. Ah yeah, so I’m still working on that. Um, commercials are still heavily short on copper. They’re selling all, sell all, sell all the copper at these prices that they can dig out of the ground. Um and Daily Cinnamon Index was as high as 93 back here and starting to back off a little bit. So, um, I think we may have topped for now on copper plant them on the other hand, continues to wound to try to stay up, but I just don’t think it’s going to be able to, and I think it’s going to turn to the downside and give a pretty strong leg to the downside. Next on platinum noticed that uh it moved out of um of a pink zone on the money flow, well slash are assigned um a while back and it’s come back and kind of kind of made a double top here and I think it’s going to turn around head south. We also on Thursday of last week, no, on Friday of last week we have and an overbought zone using money flow and RC on a 240 minute chart that quit, they gave up. Um And it’s over for now, and that’s a sign that we may have seen the top there and platinum as well as far as the daily chart. Um Nothing is suggesting on top there yet, Only on the 2 40. This is what the 240 minutes I think would be helpful to premium plan subscribers. Um Okay, how about gold, Silver next? Yeah. . Gold. I still don’t think the correction is finished on gold. I think it needs to finish a double zigzag uh W. X. Y. X. And I need to see wave down. It has managed to stay up, but the reason I think it’s kind of staying up, it’s not really shooting higher and it’s just staying up is because the dollar hadn’t bombed yet. You know, looking for a bottom to the dollar. Uh notice really the all of this movement starting back um Around December 21 to the upside looks choppy and overlapping and corrective to me. Um So I’m still still bearish on gold. Um And I think it needs to finish a pink ABC to the downside actually to finish a triple zigzag W. X. Y. X. Z. . You know if it does manage to barely eke out a slightly high and do that and take out green to invalidation. I’m still not going to be bearish. I mean I’m still not going to be bullish on gold. Not yet. I’ll come up with a different count. And the reason is because of this and that is that the expectation of a stronger dollar to start very soon and last all the way through July stronger dollar. And it’s not only just hurst that’s Elliot wave. So 121234345. This we’re closing in on the end of 1/5 wave down in U. S. Dollar would look for at least a pull back to the wave four of one lesser degree. Which is actually exactly what um what the composite line is suggesting to the composer line says it’s not quite done going down yet and when we get to currencies you’ll see that it still has a little way to go to hit The best Fibonacci target for the end of their 5th way. And so that’s why I’m letting you know that even if this takes out green to invalidation um you know I’m not I’m still not bullish, still not bullish gold yet. Uh huh. The sideways choppiness, a gradual downward movement has been really difficult period for any kind of auto automated momentum trading. Well. . Uh My dad my dad just sent me a text because uh copper can come back strong from a downturn if the dems take Georgia and the huge infrastructure pass as well. Um Let me remind you father of my larger wave count on copper and then and then on many items and that is that this isn’t that, it’s not done going up yet just looking for a correction and then to move higher and um it doesn’t have to stop going up right here. It could move higher than that for the end of this be wave to the upside. As a matter of fact, this um could be a blue wave one in a blue way too. As a matter of fact, I’m going to put that on here. This could be a blue wave one here and this coming correction could be a blue wave too, in which case um much higher and that would work well. So I’m not quite done working on deeds. Um oh on this kind of more bullish, this kind of uh inflation siding with inflation, I’m not through working that into every count yet. It’s going to take a little while to get these to get that notated on every chart. But yeah that’s definitely possible. It’s well My father is 88 years old and still trades the markets. It listens to uh these webinars on Sundays. Yeah and he was Still building houses until he was 80 and on site working and running the Bobcat and all kinds of stuff. So it’s a commercial for staying active. Um . It’s silver as you can see silver I think it’s going to be moved much higher after a pullback. Uh huh. Uh Into the first quarter, possibly a second quarter. And I’ve got this as an unfinished triple the zigzag as well. Abc for W. Abc for X. Abc for Y. Abc for X. And 12345 a. b. c. so I think silver’s heading down here too. Um Silver has been a little stronger than gold recently but it’s still in the sideways um still in this sideways business. The thing that’s kind of hard to figure out is why did silver and gold stop going up in early august while we’ve seen the dollar continues strongly to the downside. That’s it’s one of those mysteries. Um It’s hard to explain but um here’s another important aspect of what you’re seeing on this chart. And that is that we recently saw the end of another one of those overbought zones and this this pullback I think is destined to give way in head lower when these zones end. It’s usually followed by pretty solid period of downward movement. Not so much here in the only green stripe on the chart right here and That was a powerful one. So if anything, we’re just coming up off of overbought territory on silver. Yeah. And we really ended the week in a relatively weak position. Yeah. So I’m thinking downside on silver. Look at the daily cinnamon index and the eight-period simple moving average of the sea. So the C was as high as 81 Back Here. Pretty rich considering that we’re really just in a sideways move. So this is probably too rich at this juncture two. I figured there’s going to be a tremendous amount of continued upside. I think a lot of bulls, lot of bulls came in and thought that this low was the low and it’s all over the internet that this is going to work into a big new bright up phase in the precious metals. But it really has just moved up in an ABC so far. And uh And the DSI has gotten all the way to 81 awfully rich for just a simple ABC. Especially considering that that the dollar is nearing that. Fibonacci target for the end of the 5th wave down commercials on a six-month lookback heavily short Commercials as a percent of open interest, heavily short DSI in 81. This is very near very nearly a perfect storm of bearishness in silver. Um You look at the L. Go and anything any time. It’s well it doesn’t a filtration of the DSC on that silver doesn’t mean anything apparently. So Uh it can get all the way to 98 before. Uh In other words, I don’t even need to apply a DSI filter to silver. If it’s if it’s running a hot trend it can it can hit a 98 on the DSI and in the algo would still take a buy signal. Same thing on the downside. It just um the S. I. Apparently does not seem to necessarily indicate all by itself Major tops, although 93 back here was pretty meaningful. Yeah. Still probably too rich for where it resides in in the Elliott wave pattern of just an ABC up so far.
Now moving to currencies. So I’ve already showed you how the U. S. Dollar index expecting a bottom down here anytime soon. So I’ve been working a lot of other a lot of other aspects back testing the algos, getting the new money flow indicator on the charts. And so a lot of these, I haven’t necessarily updated the dates for the projected bottom. Um It is amazing. How often do you get a major turn in a currency at a year-end juncture? Look at this turn right here every one of these dotted lines right here is a year end. So this is right, a year end 2016 And this was just slightly past year in 2017. So um it’s amazing how often um currencies Do and this goes back much further than this 10-year chart. Uh You get it, get a trend change around um around the end of the year. And so as we move into the daily chart on the D. X. You can see um it’s it has a little bit further to go Jan 14, July 20. Yes, we have um I make the crossover and a massive divergence showing from the blue three low to the potential blue five low that suggests that we, you know, this bottom could come in at any point. We also have the synthetic retail sentiment showing um an extreme reading very recently down here as well. We actually ended the week on the 240 minutes chart with a buy signal in a green box On the 240 minutes. However, on the daily we’re still in a red cell box. The algo. We’re seeing a little bit of divergence on the daily cinnamon index down here. And we see that the eight-period moving average of the sea is green. We’re also seeing a potential double divergence on the Walter breast cert. And so this is why I say, uh this thing could bottom at any time at any time. Um even despite the fact that it hasn’t quite hit The best target for the end of the 5th wave, which is would be 88 44. The low tick so far Is 89 52. So it’s a dollar 10. The bottom tickets, the dollar 10 higher than that low. There All the subdivisions are really close to being in. If we’re going to get five ways down from here, 12345 might need a little fifth wave down. That’s about it. Um Usd Jpy, which is um yeah, I’m looking for upward movement here on Usd Jpy, Canadian dollar because I’m looking for oil to turn to move down. Looking for Canadian the U. S. Dollar to move higher against the Canadian dollar for a period of time. And you can see that we have um exited a period of deep, deeply oversold R. S. I. Back at this low right here and it hasn’t made a new low. So I think it’s possible if oil turns and starts headed down here that that this turns and starts heading up the same time. Um We also on the daily chart on the daily trend chart recently had a brown box at that most recent candle meaning the ADX was in extreme territory. You can see the last time that happened, the low did occur. Low of the swing did occur inside of that brown box. I still need to work on back testing on this algo notice that the DSI ended the, the Week it is 75 and anything above 74, it refuses to take a new buy signal. So the DNC is rather high uh comparatively on the Canadian dollar. Almost done. Almost done. Happy new Year. Once again to everyone. Um I’m pretty excited about the New Year. Hope you are too on the Australian dollar. Yeah. Um rather than this be a b wave of an expanded flat. I think it’s become apparent now in the Australian dollar. And I showed this on the on the screen shots, the last set of screenshots I sent you That we have a one 2345 wave of structure. . And um that is very near completion. If not completed, there’s a kind of a low Fibonacci target for the end of the fifth wave where the freeway 5.382 times a net travel to 123 and then it was struck last late last week. We also have uh some divergence showing on the R. S. I. Inside overbought territory. And here’s what I’m now counting at 1212, what this is doing in the middle of a wave three, I don’t know with 343 four. And then looking for 1/5 wave up 12 34 and then 12345 May need a little fifth wave up to finish that. So I wouldn’t be surprised if this can sneak up to 78 .78 or so um to slightly overshoot this femininity target. And then I would look for an ABC pull back through mid-year. Once again, don’t be surprised if the um midyear trough comes in early and On the 240 minute 80 x. Plus chart, We just exited on the last 240 minute candle of the year. Extreme overbought territory that lasted longer than any overbought territory going back a couple months. We don’t have a cell signal yet, but we’re in a pink box and that was in a brown box. So uh it certainly was an exit signal. As far as this is concerned, there were the beginning of the green box would have been a buy. It got into the brown box continue to hire despite being in the brown box of brown boxes when the 80 X. On the intraday chart is over 40 and it got the 80 X. Got all the way up to 70. And then we got a Walter Bressert to cross over here. And that’s that red block. And that is like an exit signal anytime you get a Walter breads are in a brown box, it’s a it’s an exit signal uh at all time frames. Um so it’s looking rather toppy um from it, from an Elliott Wave standpoint, I could see where it might try to make Um one more slight new high uh in a small degree 5th way uh ended the daily Algo ended up with a buy signal on Thursday. Or actually that was Wednesday last week. DSI is 87, that’s the same as the DSI was right there. Here’s the last time, here’s what happened the last time Did see was in 87. And on to the Euro on the Euro rather than this be a B wave just like on the Australian dollar. And looking for at it being 1/5 wave now 12 And then 12345 for three for a 5th wave up. Look at it on daily chart. Need five waves up from this low right here. One, two and then 12345 for 34 And I don’t know what’s going on here. If that’s a 12345 And it’s putting in maybe an ending diagonal or something. and you notice on the Australian dollar, the way of five target was that had just been hit Is where wave five was 0.382 times the net travel to one through three. But on the Euro it’s been uh stronger And it isn’t closing in. On where way five pink would be equal 2.6. Very normal .618 times. And that travel to one through three so it could work its way a bit higher. Um And that I think is a very good target for the end of the road on the Euro. And then I think we get an ABC through mid-year back to the wave four of 1 lesser degree. It also closed rather weakly. So up from the low on 1221 we need a five-wave structure to the upside 12 21 was right here. And you can see the potential and notice the little brown box right there oversold on the short term of an ending diagonal where it needs a 5th wave up still. So maybe one more slight new high um on the Euro still to go on the daily algo. Last by signal was December 28. And on the final day of the year it says get out of that. And we also have an exit of the extreme territory. So even if there is one more high left to go the algo, probably not going to mess with it. Uh as far as trying to grab anything out of it. British pound. Um I’ve changed this count to where I’m going ahead and calling this the final wave structure to the upside one, two, 3 45. You’ll notice that wave four did not Penetrate Wave one Territory and um if I were to establish normal fifth wave targets, it would be a bit higher. And but the price action is indicating that it may have a hard time getting there. So I’m going to put a couple targets up here. One is where way five would be equal to um with 382 Times the net travel to one through 3. Same target I’ve got on the Australian dollar for the end of the fifth wave up and that has already been passed. So we’re going to delete that line. So There is a target a bit higher where wave five would equal. . The net traveled to 123 Times .618. I just don’t know if I can get there. Um I was counting this upward movement as corrective before but if I’m got to accept it as 1/5 wave, then down here would be a one and a two and a three in a four, but once again no overlap. And so if I were to establish a green target, Green way of five target, it might be slightly lower. Yes, So the Green five target is basically the price that just was struck late in the week. Um Still, when I try to find all the subdivisions in the fifth wave, 12345, I think it’s probably an ending diagonal and it’s got one more ever. So slight new high lift uh in the tank And I’m going to say five equals one through three times .618. That would be a normal way three target. Yes, So very, very close to I think a finished structure in the pound and then looking for that corrective structure that would take us, you know, down through mid-year, probably take us back to the way for one lesser degree, maybe even a bit deeper. The way I’ve got drawn is all the way through into September but I doubt it takes that long. And then very quickly the Cheffy . On the Kiwi um it’s continued to thrust up on the triangle. I think it’s very close to finishing this thrust out of this. Pretty obvious struggle right here. So that and then what should give an ABC back through approximately mid-year? Uh Swiss Franc on swiss frank, I think it’s been giving a different pattern that’s an expanding Leading diagonal to the downside. That started all the way back in April 2019 1 234 And um I would have to say that that looks like an A. B. See anyway, this could be a double zigzag on the on the downside. A. B. C. X. A. B. C. Still need five waves down I think from this high 12345. All of subdivisions are in. The only question is, has it moved is this last fifth wave finished? You notice that the R. S. I. Is uh has moved out of oversold territory starting right here itself. Uh And even made one more slight new low after that. So within an absolute eyelash of finish finishing this structure to the downside. Uh notice we ended the week with a buy signal on the in a green box would be these several different things suggesting the bottom is in on usd/chf pair. So it just goes to show how close I think we are to the bottom of this on this dollar thing. And then finally on Bitcoin. I showed last week my long term count had some targets for the end of burgundy wave B. Um Here is the weekly count starting from October of 2011 of a five wave up structure followed by three waves down for a now three waves up for B. Um and it’s awfully close.
Cryptos & BitCoin:
So let me turn on the streaming and it’s really close to the end are to the target up here for burgundy wave be and that is where burgundy Wave B would be equal to burgundy wave A Times 1.38 to that target is at um 35, 5 24. And look what Bitcoin did over the weekend. So then is super interesting. It came awfully close to that target as a matter of fact, it hit a couple of other targets. Uh and so that could be, we could have seen the top tick In Bitcoin and likely an 18-month cycle peak in Bitcoin. And you know, I’ll say, I said this last week, I’ll say it again. I think Bitcoin is going to crash. The fact that you’re seeing commercials about it on television is a real problem. I think for Bitcoin it is caught. There’s been a frenzy to get into this, this last move by all the chasers and there’s two other large degree Fibonacci uh, targets. Right? Derek with it. One is where um Black Wave C. is a .618 expansion of black wave a so going back here, there’s black wave a there’s the expansion target and then and then the other is for wave five in blue To hit an extended wave five target. Um So that’s 1234 here. And they’re looking for an extended fifth wave Where the 5th wave is equal to The net traveled of zero through the end of four Times a very extended 1.618. And that target all those targets right together. Yes. The way too short Bitcoin, you, you have to have a big account to do it in the margin requirements are hefty. But it’s the BTC futures contract on the CME Exchange. BTC futures contract on the CME exchange. Okay. And um, these um, this is figuring trading one contract at a time. Yeah. So even if all it did was retrace back to this low. So the 12345 even if all it did is retrace back to that low right now, that would be one contract, A $63,000 Winner. So Good Luck.. Uh you can see that it’s, you know, this is, this is a big contract. It’s not for Weenies. Um, it’s, it’s the only people playing in this, in this playground have had the big accounts and would use enormous stops. Be careful. Um, there are options available on this item. There are options available on this item. So if we’re seeing the end of the road on the move up and we’re going to see a correction on on all of these items that have been moving kind of together down through, let’s say may, I could see getting a maybe a July expiration, you know, spending a little bit on, on a putsch, July expiration you add or near the money. I don’t know how much, you know, you wouldn’t have to buy but very many, maybe one and could make a fortune on that I had. So we’ll have to see. Um the only problem with buying a put at this exact juncture is the implied volatility would probably be very, very high.
So that is everything. Then I count happy New year. Um like I say, I’m excited about the new year and kind of starting with a fresh, some fresh ideas, so fresh indicators and some fresh approaches on the algos, and plan on working hard this year and making a lot of money trading to be totally honest with you, as I think that some of the pictures have been then looking at as far as long term structures seem to be clearing up, I’m definitely decided decided to side with the inflationists. Um and starting about midyear looking for an inflationary move to the upside, is it starting as early as made? So have a great week in the markets. Don’t slip and fall out there. If you got snow and ice, say a little prayer for my sister. My older sister has esophagus cancer doesn’t look good frankly, but um anyway, if you believe that prayers work, then I would appreciate some for my sister, Teresa, who’s prognosis is not good currently. Um, and that may be something that pops up on my schedule, um, on the short term, we’ll keep you posted. Thanks everybody. We’ll talk soon. Bye-bye.
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