Investing Using Elliott Wave
Elliott Wave Plus | Weekly “counts” Webinar Text
January 31, 2021
(This text was auto-transcribed by a software utility)
Welcome to Investing Using Elliott Wave Theory. Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, wherever you may be. This is Sid from Elliott Wave Plus. And this is the January 31 of 2021 edition of my weekly counts webinar. Where I go over all my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stock markets, commodities currencies and bonds, Hurst cycle analysis, as well as a number of other forms of technical analysis will also be considered on virtually all items before we get started. I’d like for you to be aware of my disclaimer. It’s at my website Elliott Wave Plus dot com. It’s just scroll to the bottom of any page on the site and click on terms of service disclaimer right there and there it is. Is there all the time? Please go there and read that in full. If I were to summarize it in one sentence, it would be, there is risk of loss in all trading. Well, we certainly had an interesting week this week. Most of the daily trend charts have turned to the downside now. So the long awaited peak I believe is in on a lot of items. And the stock market was down about three last week. I think this is just the start of a highly likely 20 correction. Um And so we’ll get into some of the short term charts and look at a whole bunch of stuff. I’m going to turn off the video of self until the end of a long term count.
Stocks (S&P-500 ES, Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA YM):
Um Obviously still the same Still awaiting the end of five waves up from the 2009 low. And that should complete The end of 1/5 wave up from the 1974 low. And also the end of away five from the 1932 low. So this would be a grand Supercycle Wave three top that is expected In the stock market within a couple of years, two or three years from now, but tops not in and there’s some pretty a sizable percentage is yet to go. I know I showed last week about tom change this to instead of ticks 2%. Um and um from that most recent peak here in January, Looking for, you know, something along the lines of a 22 correction. But then looking for a move to the upside, there would be about a 75 gain. So there’s some big percentages left on to the upside. Um I believe that this dip that we’re going to see and then we just started is going to take us through mid year this year. And then um hurst is calling for a peak in mid to late July and just about everything, I just wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if it takes a bit longer and it moves, it takes all the way into 22 23 is very likely going to be a lot of money printing that’s going to boost things up that long. Um And all of that printing stimulus et cetera et cetera is, in my opinion, going to create a pretty serious bout of inflation starting about mid year this year. And we’ll see a dramatic weakening of the daughter dollar starting about mid year this year and reaching into uh at least on the on the U. S. Dollar. On the Hurst analysis there uh dramatically weakening dollar. Um Maybe down into the US. dollar index, down into the 60’s by late 2023. That should um have commodities and stocks screaming to the upside, but not until this correction is over through about mid year. And that that general road map that I just described to you is really a kind of universal on the charts throughout. I’ll pull back through mid year this year and then a screaming inflationary move that would last as long as a couple of years, something like that. Um So it looks like the long awaited correction is finished. Uh here, you know, we had a throw over on this weekly chart on down jones industrial average. The way beak stubbornly stayed up, stayed up, stayed up over slightly overshot the best Fibonacci target for way be even expanded flan. It’s very similar to what happened in January and February of 2020 where they overshot that target there. So my main count has has not changed that. We in the down we’ve seen five waves up, complete through the early september hive of 2020. Then a three wave pull back for a wave A Now a corrective move to the upside for wave B should see a five wave structure to the downside, I’ve got a target on the dow jones industrial average 25,000 oh six to uh by the time we get to approximately mid year hurst on the down jones, industrial average is saying that bottom may not occur until august. Um Other items Are suggesting that the July would be that day that uh 18-month cycle trough and others are saying june june july august time frame is the expected low. Um The reason it’s so universal is because from this nine year cycle trough um in March and almost all items whose in april in oil, but almost everything else in March, You move forward approximately 18 months. And uh you get august maybe september But these cycles have been running short. This the last 18 months cycle ran only 15 months. So if you move forward 15 months from March of 2020, you get june and so don’t be surprised with that. Um uh trough comes in early um because that’s the way almost all these troughs have been coming in early um lately and they’ve been spikes down into the trough typically. Uh And then they get bought up very thoroughly very quickly and very often there’s some sort of um money printing scheme that is associated with with the those bottoms. Um And so I don’t expect this next one is going to be that much different. Looking at daily candles, looking for a five wave structure down into the way I’ve drawn. It is down into late june To complete an expanded flats. Starting at the September early September high three waves down for a pink a. three waves up for a pink b. Identify wave structure down. uh there’s that target of 25,062 which was created with by expanding the wave A and pink by .382. That’s also fairly close to a .38 to retrace of the entirety. Oh, blue way one, that target is slightly lower at 24-382. So um when I looked very carefully at the Hurst analysis, It’s saying we’re generally going to be moving to the downside through about March 10 And then a rally through about April seven and then on down from there. So I’m thinking that the move down through March 10 is going to be a wave one in five waves. And possibly considering the aggressiveness of the move so far to the downside, the actual bottom would be way be of an expanded flat within the wave too. That might actually be the what Hurst is pointing to for a bottom there, but still looking for a five wave structure to the downside. And I think it’s very likely that we in the dow jones industrial average and this this brings up a really good point if you are trading the Y. M. Futures contract or the Y R M, Y M micro e mini futures contracts, um, you really, really need to keep a chart um intraday of the regular cash index because the overnight price action can be very deceptive as to where, where things are in the in the wave count on the way down, on the way down. Mhm. And so in the Dow jones industrial average, I’ve got this as a complete orange wave one. Um as of friday’s price action and that it was a leading expanding diagonal. There was some pretty big up shoots and a couple of them in the middle of the move down so far from that all time high, which is still standing on the dow From January 21. So I think that’s a leading expanding diagonal. I can zoom in to like a 15 minute chart for a second home and show you how that looks. Okay. 12345 And you might say, well what these look like five wave structures both of these do. Is that okay as being um or do we, are we looking at something other than a diagonal? Something more aggressive to the downside. And uh yeah, it is possible to count this as a one, two and then another one in a two. And if that’s the case, I want to show you a possible scenario. So this is a 1-1, 2, the downward movement on friday, it really just moved down and kind of found support where it could be a B wave of an expanded flat or possibly running flat. And we get a fairly sizable move back up to the upside Hurst is suggesting feb two. And so hurst is suggesting that we could get a couple of days of up on the very short term. This, this ended very much over soul. And so I’m looking for some upward movement over the next couple of days and I’ll be looking on short term charts at the internal wave structures on the way up to try to determine what’s going on. But so far, late in the day on uh friday, we may have seen an expanding leading diagonal for something to the upside, I’ve noticed that um, for the oldest Elliott Wave forecasting organization on planet Earth is counting this as a 1 to 1, 2, 1, 2 and immediately deadly bearish. Maybe a gap down a point of recognition gap. So if it, if we do get a large gap down to open the week that can’t fill then um, that that may be correct, but I find it to be, personally, I find it to be unlikely. I think it’s more likely out of after the most bearish week in, uh, since late october, but A three down week, we’re going to get another pullback here. Um, for way too. And, and so my, my preference is to call this a leading expanding diagonal. And the thing about leading diagnosed as they are often deeply retraced. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of days of pretty strong up numbers to start the week that that’s my forecast. Um I am leaving open the possibility of a much more bearish situation Um and if this is a 1-1-1 To I certainly wouldn’t put the two here. I’d look for at least the pull back to the way 41 last third degree. So that would be back around 30,500 and that would be the minimum pull back I would expect in the down before continues lower. Yeah, so there’s the Dell. Mhm. And this but I just showed you where can dig into some of the tight intraday, very short term charges benefit of being a we are a pro plan member as opposed to screenshots member. Um I got to be worth that extra $30 a month uh to to get the perspective some additional perspective from the webinar. Um So yeah, looking for pull back probably lasting a couple of days and possibly fairly deep um um retrace before uh downside continuation and then, and then I think the next wave after pulled uh you know, a retrace will be the wave three and there won’t be any big Up moves inside of the wave three. It’ll be an aggressive move that just keeps going down and if it is in fact a wave three, but so far just to wave one and a two, remember that I’m only looking for a pullback, You know, of 20%. I’m not looking for a crashed a biblical crash at this time. Uh You know, whereas if I, you know, my main camp was that this was A supercycle wave three top. Yeah. You know, I might be more prone to um putting out the most bearish possible accounts, but that’s not my perspective. What I’ve, what I’ve got, what I’m really expecting, you’ll notice on the weekly chart is a nice even spread, a typical spread of a five wave structure debt to the downside. And if, if that’s the case, I don’t think green wave one is likely finished yet, we probably only seen orange wave one within the green wave would and that’s the reason I’ve labeled it the way, the way I have and and that’s the also the reason why I’m expecting that we might get a couple of days of upward movement here next. Um see if I can, I’d say 240 minute, make sure I’ve got this. Here we go. Yeah, you’ll find as we move through the webinar that we have had a trend change. There was a long time in coming on the daily trip insurance that everybody that’s a paints of subscriber and no matter which level get these every night. Mhm. And we’ve really been in an uptrend since early november, but now, as far as trend following goes, the trend has, has changed to the downside. And then on the dow jones, industrial average on daily charts occurred on thursday of last week. Okay. And um, let’s move on to, oh, and by the way, as, as we get into bear market for a few months, just be aware of your premium plan subscriber that the size of the stops that were being suggested by the Algo is based on the average over the last three years. And of course during downdrafts, there are um, the volatility goes up and you might consider training with smaller positions and larger stops than even the Algo is suggesting by a little bit. And, you know, the way I trade is, I will certainly take these daily signals and under advisement and enough of them uh you know, trend in order to put in a nice winning trades that it these algo is generally on, on balance come out with some really excellent results. But just be aware like right here there was a cell signal, a limit cell signal and the algo waited till they pulled back 200 down points got in and then put in about a 320 down point stop and it managed to rip up there and yeah and stop that trade out before moving lower. Um in the way I personally traded that on the Y. M. Contract Is I was dialed it down to like five minute charts, looked at the price action, saw how aggressive the price action was, the upside and didn’t take the sell signal there. I took this cell signal up much closer to where the actual stop was. And that’s because I was counting waves on the way up on a five minutes chart and looking for the proper opportunity to short this without getting stopped out. That worked out really well, had a great trading week last week and um right now I’m flat and looking for a pullback probably blasting a couple of days and I want to look at the price action to see young for gaps down. Uh I think it would at least attempt to to fill that gap gap. And I’ll be looking at the price action on that on five minutes chart. Nor too look for the, the wave structures and the proper Fibonacci relationships for doing those wave structures. And the reason you have to dial it down to five minutes chart is because, you know, you have to do that in a super fast moving market. But if you aren’t trading off of these signals, just be aware Uh that um that cell signal was a good one and uh it didn’t get, but it did get stopped out by just a little bit. And if volatility is going to spike, like we’ve seen the last few days, um smaller positions and larger and larger than usual stops. Probably a good idea as far as shorting the market. Um Let’s see um on cinnamon, on the, on the Y. M. Contract, you notice that it looks like the commercials are buying the dow and um it very well could be that what the commercials are doing is they’re they’re getting there portfolios, window dressed. Uh so that if we do have a bad downturn here, they want to be in blue chips that very well could be what, what’s going on there might be kind of an attempted rotation into blue chips. But to be honest, this rotation business that they’ve been, that many of the hedge funds have been doing, for instance, the rotation into the russell that powered the wrestle, um, continuously higher for several months, um, during this downturn over the next few months, I don’t think any sort of rotation like that is going to be affected, um, if they’re long only, I think they probably should rotate into cash, but, um, and, uh, I know a lot of you probably wanted to know, um, what I think about the current situation with the Reddit and, and the raids. Yeah, ready to put in and I’ll speak to that a little later in the webinar. Um, but yes, I do intend to talk about what’s going on, um, with these, uh, raids on, uh, relatively low volume stocks that have a high degree of short interest. That’s that’s the what the Red Cross has been attacking and it’s extremely short term strategy. And yeah, it worked for a little bit, but now everybody in the world knows what they’re doing. So I’ll talk about that here in a bit. Yeah, we’ll get done with these. Uh, but I can tell you this During this correction that I think has just started this 20 correction, Wall Street just found there just found their whipping boy and they’ll blame it all on the Reddit thing. That will be their continual excuse for why the market would correct down through mid year. So they just found their excuse. Uh huh. But that’s not certainly not all of the reason that, that we would be seeing this correction. I’ll wait until we get to uh, probably talk about it when we get to the gold miners because there was a couple of mining stocks, the egg and monks that they attacked and uh, and also SLV the silver ETF. And so I’m thoroughly discussed at that at that time on the S. And P. Looking for this move down here. I think it’s just begun. We’re done with that way. Be into the downside through mid year in five ways. You notice that I don’t think green wave one, it’ll be five green waves down in my opinion and the green wave one, It’s not finished yet. We’re very likely on the S&P. Only done with orange wave one now on the short term count. And notice that on the were generally looking for a bearish february, bearish february and then a bounce during most of March and then on down into june july. So that’s the general road map on Hurst, Hurst is nail with no re pens. considering the late October low as the 40 weeks cycle trough, I had been pinning it there for quite some time and now it has decided. Yeah, that’s it. Um and one side started pinning it there. I would have to say that it’s been, Hurst has been pretty good. It just wasn’t that that once again, this 40 weeks cycle trough came in early, This 20 week cycle trough Had to be in late June even though it didn’t make a new low there and it really didn’t move down very far into that 20 weeks cycle trough at that time. It was looking for Pullbacks into the 20 week in the 40 weak trough and they just weren’t very big. And um they both came in early and so we’re probably going to get this one early notice that Hurst currently thinks it’s in late july so, but the Fsc cycle program is thinking early to mid june, so that might be more likely that it comes in early here. Anyway. Uh as far as France actions so far, we’re looking at the ES contract and um you’ll notice that I’m counting that initial blast of the downside As Orange Wave one. And then on this chart I’m showing orange wave to being finished pretty quickly and they’re after after a big up shoot And then a purple wave one. And now I’m getting expanded flat for purple wave too. Don’t be surprised if we we get some upward movement here retracing possibly half of the entire downward movement so far. I’ve got to move it back to 37 95 on the S. Contract take a day or two and then I think it’s going to continue on lower. You notice that it on the R. S. I. On the 240 minute chart, it got extremely oversold and now is moved up out of oversold territory despite making that new load in the week. And so I think we get a little bit more up here before we have downside continuation. So that’s why I’m killing accounting it on the E. S. Contract. You know, on on the If I zoom in to an intraday maybe a 15 minute on the on the cash index 123 Probably a triangle here. 45 So there’s that could be wave one and this could be the end of wave to but notice this might be an abc to the downside. So we kind of have the same thing here where the low that occurred late in the day, late in a week on friday stop going down where it was exactly 1.382 times this move to the upside. So it’s actually possible that we could get a move all the way back up in here and and it being expanded flat. A. I’m an expanded flat and then abc for B. Of an expanded flat And then 12345. I just saw a news story come across on my phone that they there’s some scuttlebutt of the republicans offering um you know, compromise uh and some kind of lower dollar stimulus. And so that probably will be the news for the next couple of days that might push the markets actually back up. Uh maybe even challenging Uh the the all time high that occurred in the es contract on Tuesday of last week, the 26. So beware of being, I think it’s important to be aware of being to immediately bearish. Yeah, let’s see. This needs to be daily. Yeah, there we go. Yes. And look for um bit of a move back up. I did. I just don’t think the market is going to make it easy to make, you know, to make easy money on this downdraft. Just think they’re going to it’s going to make it as hard as possible. Um But I do think we have a trend change. So there’s the S and P notice the daily trend following template agrees that we’ve had a trend change. The debt trend change came in on Wednesday of last week and it’s been the trend has been up since early november. So we had really three full months of uptrend, but it is, we got a pink box here and a red triangle. And that looks like a trend change to me then according to this, that’s this system. You know, you wait for one of these big triangles, whether it’s hollow or whether it’s uh solid doesn’t make any difference. Inside a red are a pink cell zone box according to the amazon system or perry Kaufman’s original am A system. And we got both of those on Wednesday of last week. So I believe the trend has turned down. Yeah. Well according to the indicators, there’s the current all time high on the E. S. Contract. So this this could be one and then A. B. C. And expanded flat or possibly running flat. But I think it’ll we’ve got another up shoot for a couple of days here. Uh the algo on the S. And P. Just just give a cell signal right there on friday on the on the down jones. It gave the sell signal on Wednesday, but on the S. And P. Waited and gave it on friday and saying, you know, wait for a pullback and then short it. I’m just letting you know that we could get a a sizeable enough pull back right here in order to stop that signal out, in my opinion. Um But but I think it’s a good signal, but I just think that it’s likely to get stopped out and moved. Retrace high enough to stop it out before it moves into very strong move to the downside. So just that’s that’s the way I think it’s going to go. Yeah. Um the on friday, you know, on Wednesday, the S. D. S. This is for premium plan subscribers gave a buy signal that would be two times bearish S. And P. E. T. F. It immediately got stopped out. And on friday, it’s given another by signal. So Mr Mark, it’s not going to make it easy to short make money shorting here, but it can be done. Yeah, I had a really great week last week. But you know, these staying hyper aware of potential wave counts on the short term charts. Um, All right. Notice the S. And P. Finally has kind of turned down and it broke broke a trend channel last week. Don’t be surprised if it makes one more trip up to try to tag that trend channel. But the only thing really that’s uh looking like it wants to stay up right now. It’s the U. S. Dollar. I’ve been talking about that for a long time. That the U. S. Dollar while while the dollar, you know, it’s moving up. And these are Line chart of daily closes the dollar bottomed back on January six. And if we continue getting stronger dollar, these, you know, other assets, stocks, gold, probably going to go down the thing that is kind of the odd man out right here is bonds and we’ll see. I think bonds are going to turn and move to the upside as a safe haven as well during the and should generally moved to the upside. And that means yields to the downside over the next several months. Generally, uh, as the flight safety alongside the dollar, we’ll see if that works out. No one seems to agree with that scenario of my fellow wave Catterson.
Stocks (NASDAQ NQ, Russell 2000 RTY, Semiconductor Index SOX):
NASDAQ. So I think we have an interim top in the NASDAQ, we’re going to get a pullback through mid year and then it’s gonna scream much higher. Um, as far as, You know, on the NASDAQ, if we get a 20 pullback, Um, that the gains to the to the to my target on the nas in DX, which is around 24,000 are more substantial. The potential games are more substantial here than they are on the S. And P. Or on the um down. So there’s a giant opportunity to grab another giant move up, starting, you know, around mid year. This year, we’ll be able to hone that in a little more. After we see some, you know, price action on the way down, we start setting some targets. But I think we’re going to get to the five ways down structure, which if we do get a five wave down structure should be able to set some pretty solid targets for that. Fifth way 1 1 target. So there will be down in five green waves, five green waves to the down to the next major buying opportunity in stock market. And you know the way the stock market has been going? Yeah. Um, and the way everything’s been going is the way Fives have been outsized in a lot of things and everything. This is turning into a mania and uh, I don’t, is as much of Romania as we’ve seen lately. I think it’s going to be just absolutely off the scale. Um, by the time we get a couple of years Down the road, maybe into early 2023. But, but um, As far as measuring for targets for the end of way five, the earliest, well, um, 1 1 target we can set right now is a Fibonacci expansion target. So we take the, the way they him, I I think it’s more likely based on the oversized wave. Be too need a fairly substantial wave sea to the downside, but there’s the zone for the body for the bottom on the NASDAQ 100 or 10, 10,000 oh 72 to 9700. So 90 700 to 10,100 somewhere there. And as support, that would be a .382 In a .618 expansion of wave a in pink. Uh Really kind of switched into using these expansion targets on a lot of things. I think they’ve been more accurate then for instance, um looking for a way of C. There was 1.618 times the length of way of a. And pink. That and if that’s the case we would it would only come back to this support level here Around 10,600. I don’t think that’s sufficient. Everything is being blown out and uh Fibonacci targets have really need to be a little bit longer I think in these extreme markets um for top sand bottoms. Um But she hurst is expecting late july. I’ve drawn it more like in june on this pullback, another good Fibonacci target uh that I would sit on the NASDAQ would be once Green one is finished. Look for Way five and green to be a 1.618 expansion of greenway one. Yeah. And then another target. I would look for once, once wave three is finished and four is finished and green Look for weigh 5 to be .61, 8 times the net traveled of one through three. So right now, these are these the only Fibonacci targets I can send and we can set more feminine she targets on the way down as we see the the waves progress. Um So on On the daily chart notice I’m showing the way four of one lesser degree as a potential retrace target as well as the .618 expansion of the length of wave a and there. And we’ve got a target zone down here from 97 25 to 10 300. Mhm. And uh I’m looking for I don’t think Green Wave One is finished yet, hurst thinks this moves down into early to mid March. And so looking at the internal wave structures so far in the wave down, I think we have an orange one in place and potentially in Orange two and then a purple one and then it expanded flat over underway, looking for that sizable pull back back to maybe 13-50, something like that before downside continuation. So there’s the NASDAQ. But yes, I think the top is in on on Pink Way be we’ve already seen orange one. Orange to maybe finished. It’s even possible that orange two is unfolding as an expanded flat. Okay so a couple of days of up I think is is a pretty solid expectation. And then and then more downside we don’t quite have an official trend change on Indie X. To the downside yet. I need a pink box but I think we’re awfully close to getting one. We also got a cell signal on the NASDAQ on friday on the N. Q. Contract. And uh this was according to the system, not an unusually long candle friday’s candle. Which is a little surprising. And so is saying it gets sell at market. I’m gonna I’m just saying right now I don’t think at the open of the next candle so that would be today at like five p.m. central time. Mhm. I don’t think that’s a good idea. I don’t think it’s a good idea to sell at market on this next candle. I think it’s a much better idea to wait and see if we get a substantial pull back And get it down to a five minute chart. See if you can determine how it’s how it’s moving up In a wave count on a five minute chart and then try to pinpoint that cell. Now, in the case of the sentiment on the, on the NASDAQ much more bearish and it looks like at least for now they’re the rotation has been away from the NASDAQ and it was probably into the Russell and that probably is over as well. So, what, what those guys intend to rotate into next? I don’t know what it be, but maybe maybe uh maybe Gamestop. Uh hard to say. But anyway, the commercials are positioned in a bearish position on the NASDAQ notice who is chasing the NASDAQ higher. It’s the large specks who’s getting shorter on the NASDAQ. The commercials, We’re just off of a 90 on the sea and the NASDAQ. So I think this is just, we’re only 2 3 days into this thing and it’s going to be a multi month in my opinion correction. And if if my wave can is right, it’s it would be a simple five wave down structure. Um Let’s see what else. We don’t have a buy signal on Q. I. D. The two times barrish queues yet where we’re getting awfully close to, you know, is that where the walter president is on a green positive crossover? And but we need this uh I am a line to start sloping to the upside. So I think we get a daily clothes on Q. I. D. Above. Yeah, 28 28 28.28. That’s the current position of the Obama. We’d get a daily clothes on Q. I. D. Above that. And I think we’ll have a buy signal on cue ID. Which is essentially a signal to short the NASDAQ uh wrestle um have pretty strong pull back there. Um These are monthly candles and now you can see that it’s pulled back quite a bit from that top. And we have a giant divergence in place between this high and this high on the RC. On a monthly chart. Yes. And that is a bearish engulfing candle on on a weekly chart. So I think we have to start of of our move to the downside. And the Russell as well. We also have um an exit from overbought territory on the russell, just like we had an exit from oversold territory right here. Um And moving into the daily chart, Yeah, it started to the downside and I got to tell you on the And so yeah, looking for generally a bearish february and then some upward movement in March. And in this case it thinks that it could move up um into april and then bottom uh you know, Dylan june july time frame. It reminds me I’m currently projecting that this correction For and this would be a wave to in all these stock relied on was a wave two and blue is going to be a zigzag angle, but there’s no guarantee at all that it will be a zigzag. It could be a flat, it cannot be a triangle or it could be a combination correction and we won’t know for a while and um different and if we do get a solid five wave down structure uh for wave then yes, we’re very likely getting his Exactly. Wave, a pink, but there’s no guarantee that that’s what it’s gonna be. It’s just usually after a really strong Wave one, you would get a deeper wave to pull back and that would, and um especially with cinnamon conditions, the way they are a sharper pullback. And so I think zigzag is most likely. That’s why I’m showing it on the charts. The downward movement on the russell is pretty choppy as well. Um And I think it it’s likely a finished leading diagonal. It’s very rough, very rough to the downside, and then I’m looking for a pullback before it it moves on lower. Uh So just beware diagonals are typically deeply retraced. So don’t be surprised if we get a pretty here raising uh move to the upside. Um enough to scare a lot of people out of shorting. Um That’s what I I really would expect mr market to give us right here. As you know, attempt to scare people out of shorting. I think that what we’ve seen is Ciampi enough and overlapping enough I think is a very rough leading diagonal finished on the russell. Okay. Um definitely have a pink box. We don’t have a big triangle quite yet, but you know, very likely we’re going to get an official trend change on the daily chart on the Russell as well. Um here’s once again, the russell gave a cell signal, a limit cell signal waited for a pullback got in and it got stopped out. This this was on the 27 that got stopped out the next day, but then it continued lower and just beware. These back tested retrace in stop sizes are kind of an average taken over the last three years. And with the volatility spike that we just saw, uh, we’re, we may be in a, seeing some elevated volatilities and so training with smaller positions and larger stops once again might be advisable. It does look like commercials are all of a sudden, you know, interested in the wrestle. Uh, and yet they’re disinterested in the NASDAQ, really conflicting views on the, on the commercials positioning. If I were the commercials, I and I was, if commercials are pretty much long, only larger institutional money, I’d be confused on where to rotate to as well. Um, T. W. M. This is a way to short the russell with two times leverage. We added this back to the premium plan for premium plan subscribers to spreadsheet a couple weeks ago based on um, one of the premium plan subscribers thought it might be a good timing too, but that in there was expecting a signal soon. We did get that signal on thursday and a little bit of upward follow through. Uh that position on that by signal that the algo produced on tw M, which is a way to short with leverage. The russell came in at 1725. So if we do get that pull back, I’m looking for, Uh, it’s at 1797. Now, if we get pulled back down to 1725, it’s possible you could get into this at the same uh level as the premium plan subscribers that are taking these signals um verbatim uh, semiconductors definite pull back here in semiconductor index looking, I think it’s just the beginning of the move down through mid year. And we have a trend change in the semiconductors from from up to down, so many conductors generally been in an extremely strong up trend for a long time. But yet on Wednesday of last week, the trend has turned down on the daily charts on the semiconductors. According to this system, Moving on to popular stocks.
Popular Stocks & VIX (Facebook FB, Amazon AMZN, Apple AAPL, Microsoft MSFT, Google GOOGL, Tesla TSLA):
Uh huh, apple put out earnings. That was just blow out huge earnings. Yes. And immediately started selling off and that some of his continued in apple and it just goes to show um as far as trading the markets. Um right now it appears that earnings are relatively meaningless. Um There’s these shifts in uh social mood that um I think are are driving this train and so we have a basically a bearish engulfing candle on a weekly chart on Apple. I think that’s probably the end of that be wave looking for move down an Apple 2 86 11 By the time we get to mid year, if if ample gets back to 86 It is absolutely screaming by because I think it’s going to go to to 69. I think that’s the best target for the top. So the kind of percentage gained, there’s a huge potential percentage gange coming in Apple if he gets down To my target or anywhere close to it around 86 and then I think this is going to be a huge winner for the next year, a huge up move. So these are very long term Fibonacci targets and I’ve got three of them up there that are all clustered together using different methodologies. So I think I do think Apple is going to move to to 70. But if it drops 86, I think this one’s got to be in the portfolio, you know, as a really nice core holding. Um, uh, amazon looking for a pullback through mid year. I think it will be away for and then amazon will continue away up higher. I think amazon could, could experience a substantial percentage pull back here. Looking to the downside. Um, all of these um, charts, very few of them have changed because I just frankly didn’t need to, I was embarrassed last week on Boeing, we got, got a pretty sizable move down. It could this be maybe the end of a five wave leading diagonal to the downside and it and maybe has a little bit of a up shoot before continuing lower. Yeah, that looks like possible AH 12345 C. That’s, This could be the way of one and pink and we could be getting an expanded flat for two in pink here. And you know, here’s the stock that um if it gets down to my target of 1 23 uh, there’s really strong potential for a move up 2338 on Boeing. And here’s, here’s another stock that I think is going to present a major um opportunity Moving from 1 23 to 3 82. But so it just needs this pullback in five waves down through mid year. Disney uh, looking for a pullback back to support the last support levels right there. Um, 1 17. If we have Disney gets back to 1 17, I think the best target for a top on Disney Is to 87. Uh, facebook looking for pull back to the way 41 lesser degree so far the pullback is corrective and I think it will continue to be corrective and kind of difficult to deal with, Um, difficult necessarily to trade. But if Facebook gets back down about 207, I think it’s got huge upside potential google. Um, looking for a substantial pull back through mid year and that could we, they actually, and probably is that this is likely a wave one here and the two, the only thing that might happen to google is if, if they’re forced to split up um, and that, that may cause this to be a very major top in google, there’s been some talk about that Microsoft actually shot up and made a new high on earnings, excellent, tremendous earnings, but it wasn’t able to hold behind and it reversed and then we have this large weekly pin candle. I think that’s a reversal candle, I think that’s the end of the way be and we get this big old pull back the mid year and then Microsoft is definitely a by netflix I think has begun its descent through mid year. And then when it gets, if it, If this wave count is correct, it’s going to drop back below 231 next before moving substantially higher. Tesla is looking a bit weak right here. I would look for an initial move down through mid year, back to the way for one lesser degree And that’s a 3 96. So Tesla recently hit 900 and I think it’s going to drop back to 400 through mid year Wal Mart. I’m looking for a move back to the way for one lesser degree through mid year. So back down to about 102. It’s currently at 140 and that’s about the extent, you know, even jp morgan on a daily trend chart, that that trend has changed to down. And Pfizer what an incredibly weak chart for, for a company that’s supposedly going to be one of the handful of companies that’s going to save everybody. Uh Really odd. Can’t figure that one out. No. Uh other than, you know, when, when Pfizer got this spike to the upside right back there. Um, the ceo so so cashed in a whole bunch of his shares. Yes. Maybe he knows something about these uh, uh huh vaccines. Yeah. So the vics a huge spike on Wednesday of last week and then it kind of floundered around for a couple days. Um, Yeah, I think we get a bit of a pullback in the vics, but the cycle analysis on the vics, I’m using the psychoanalysis on the, the FSC website, The Foundation for the study of cycles is still considering general that we’re going to see upside on the vics, through mid february. And then it pulled back through mid april and then on my tire into May. So that’s what the cycle says. I’ll have to say the cycles hasn’t been particularly accurate on the vics. Uh But uh so maybe a pull back on the vics for a couple of days and then ripping higher as after the stock market you know moves up in the next couple of days and it moves into a position where it can be shorted again. Um So there’s the big spike on the vics on Wednesday. And it spiked enough on an intraday chart that the adx uh got well above 40. In fact he got up to 66 67 very quickly and kind of floundering. So uh you know I think what the VIX does is it pulls back for a couple of days and then rips higher. Yeah the VIX on this daily chart, the V. X. Contract got over Bond very quickly and then um now it is it exited the RSI exited overbought territory very quickly on thursday. And in previous times that that occurred we’ve seen some downward movement after an exit from overbought conditions. So um that’s also feeding into the possibility that we get this stock market moving to the upside for a couple days before um it moves on down the N. Y. S. E. 13 day exponential moving average of the N. Y. S. E. Advance decline ratio is below the zero line. There’s more decliners and advancers on average over the last couple weeks and we might get pulled back back to the zero line before it moves lower. Amazingly the 10 day simple moving average of the put to call the C. B. O. E. Total put to call ratio as soon as very little upward movement yet although it has kind of flattened out, it has kind of flattened out down here. And so uh you can see we’ve got the initial move down in the S. And P. But to tend the day simple moving average of the put put call ratio still kind of acting kind of bottle me so we’ll keep an eye on that for potential move to the upside. You can see when you look at the actual daily clo close chart. There was a spike down on the total put call ratio and made a low on monday last week, monday. And then it’s been shooting to the upside I think Because this is a 10 day simple moving average. It’s likely to turn To the upside here pretty soon within the next 2 3 days. And that could mark a pretty important Signal. Their fairy is very similar. It’s this this is looking very similar to what we saw in January and February of 2020 where the all time high actually occurred here in the stock market at the time. Yeah. Um But the the 10 day simple moving average of the protocol ratio made a secondary low, the lowest low was at the peak in january, which that was the all time high at the time. Then the market took a little bit of a dip down, starting at that January high of 2020 and then found its way back up to some final all time highs in february. And that’s when basically all hell broke loose and you know, might see something similar here. But we don’t have the signal yet to have the signal yet, which is pretty interesting. You know, we can see that we’ve got to pop off of an extremely low low start starting on monday of last week. So we’re only five trading days into this. This is a 10 day moving average. So it’s there is bound to change direction here pretty soon. That should be a a sign of the that the market is going to move, going to go through a period of moving to the downside. So when this turns up, oh, let’s see here, moving on. Mhm. Going to sectors now.
All of these roadmaps that I’m in showing in recent weeks have really been working pretty well. Um uh with the exception of XRT, I didn’t realize that XRT, the retail E. T. F. Was overweight on a whole bunch of these crappy retailers. But it turns out they are that the largest holding. I think I saw this on the news, the largest holding this game stop now and and these stocks that ran it has been uh has been rating essentially what these guys on Reddit. What they figured out that they could do is use the, the mob power of, of social media to, to pull this off because normally in order to um, take a stock that it has an extremely high heavy short interest in it. And it’s expensive to short stocks, it takes a lot of buying power to short a stock. Yeah. And about the only outfits normally that can directly short stocks are the big hedge funds. This is, and so they had picked a number of these stocks that were basically crap stocks like Gamestop and some other retailers and been piling in short on them because they’re probably going under. And um, and these guys are bred had realized this like if we could get enough people since, since we have this platform, this social media platform, if we can get enough people convinced that we could just basically create a mob and just mob, you know, go in and buy game stock where the heaviest, heaviest short stocks and there are there are others that they’ve been attacking in the mining sector, mucks mugs, mugs has turned into a complete crap stock. And that’s why everybody, you know, there was a very heavily shorted A G by all indications, which is extremely overpriced, and that’s the reason there was such high, high short interest in it. Notice that none of these, these guys on Reddit, they realized that they would never be able to attack a stock like Apple or, you know, a big stock like that with huge amount of volume. They’re they’re tanking relatively low volume stocks. And so what the hedge funds I think of learned is social media has brought about a change, and since the hedge funds have to uh publish, make public which stocks they’re shorting and how much that’s, this was kind of an easy thing for them to do. Um, So, uh, this is something that has generally been reserved for hedge funds and big accounts. And because of social media, they were able to scoop up enough of a mob that they were able to act essentially as a huge hedge fund and do this. Um, you can bet your sweet dippy that, that the, this is going to not be allowed somehow they’ll stop it. They have to stop it. And it’s 11 way to stop. It would be to discontinue the requirements that, that the hedge funds have on which stocks they are shorting and by how much that would end it right there. But in the interim, until there’s um some legislation of some kind that comes out um there, what I saw, I got an email from one of the subscribers that stays up on this steve And the Roman Hood has chosen a list of 50 stocks and there’s even some etfs in there that were on there were being raided, that they’re, they’re just going to limit trading on it. I don’t know how, what kind of, um, the limiters they have on, you know, how much they’re gonna LTD. Um, and uh, yes, and so they, they essentially, um, are pulling the plug, Robin Hood is and very likely the other brokerages will do do so as well. So they’re going to pull the plug on this and they’re just going to stop training on these heavily shorted stocks for a while unless you want to sell and then you’ll be selling into a vacuum. I think all of these heavily shorted stocks are after the big spike to the upside we’ve seen, and I think egg and and monks are two of them and SLV they’re all going to crater because of this. People will be looking for the exits and and they’re the exits are locked. Um, so, um, yeah, it was, it was a neat idea, but you can, I just think they’re, they’re going to find a way to stop and here is the biggest reason why the brokerages are going to find a way to stop, have to find a way to stop it because these brokerages take the other side of your trade. And so, uh, Robin Hood just had to go out and borrow a billion dollars in order to stay solvent if if brokerage, the size of Robin Hood goes under that, that is a Lehman or Bear stearns sort of event and I just don’t think Wall Street’s gonna let that happen Greg. I can forward you and anybody else that one would like, I can forward you an email I got from steve about this uh, on that is a fairly inclusive list. But this is, this is why I’m just saying they’re going to, they have to put a stop to this, the brokerages because it is threatening the solvency of the brokerages. Send me an email if people want to, um, and I’ll afford it too. But, um, and or maybe a link afford you a link to the article. Yeah. But yeah, Robin Hood, and you can probably google it and find it, you know, Got Robin Hood, Um, is going limiting the trade trading on 50 items, something like this. Yeah. Oh, yeah, you can bet that, you can bet that this is the politicians are going to get involved here. There’s gonna be a lot of bickering about it. In the meantime, some of these uh smaller brokerages like roman hood I I would say are you know they they’re in trouble. Uh huh. You know who knows? They may try to pass along where you can’t on social media uh makes mention of specific stocks or something without a license or something. Who knows who’s R. H. O. Robin Hood. Yeah. Yeah. It’s it’s a hell of a amazing thing and you know, I’m uh it will be interesting to see what the net effect will be, but I think that um this correction that I’m expecting through mid year uh they’re they’re gonna blame blame it all on that and and it’ll be part of it. I think part of the correction will be partly associated with it, the correction that I’m expecting through mid year. Uh So um but XRT I don’t know this is just absolutely ridiculous that uh that in the amazing thing they’ve done it with the worst, the crappiest stocks out there And and they made a fortune pushing I think Gamestop didn’t game stop for a minute hit, maybe 500 or something. I mean that’s That’s a $10 stock if that yes. Uh Silver SLV is one of the tickers that Reddit is going to limit trading on. And the only other two in the mining um business were mugs and A. G. So I just think that um any stocks that are specifically mentioned on that list I think are have become taboo to right now as far as holding them, they’re too dangerous. I mean they are, for me it’s an amazing thing is these millennials that are doing this fearless and the reason is I they don’t think they’ve ever been wiped out before, but just fearless in their resolve to um be involved with things like this. And it really isn’t an amazing, amazing new development. And it will be fascinating to see what all that is done to put a stop to it. But I think the broker just have to stop it. They have to, you know, otherwise they’re in peril. I totally agree. Then this I I have my son Andrew who works extensively on this website and on services and provides you stuff. He’s in his early 30’s and he’s always felt like the by the time he got old enough and she had a good enough job to start saving some money and that then all of the vitality will have been raped out of the system and that there was very little future left. And I think that’s the reason why um they they’ll take part in something like this, because it’s like they don’t feel like there’s much more time left before they and they’re probably right. But for them to uh make money in the stock market the traditional way. So they’re really, really fascinating new development in the markets. I think the markets will quiet down the talk about it. The financial propaganda tv will probably be asked to make a much look not to make a big deal about it, not to be talking about it constantly. There was the brokerages will make some moves in the meantime to protect themselves and it’ll all blow over. That’s that’s what I think. But we’ll see. Uh All right, moving on. I think I’ve covered that well enough, but I I just think that it’s anything on on the list of of raided items. Um is it has to be an avoid unless you are unless you um I want to take this kind of risk but I I think it’s best to avoid it. It’s my my personal feeling about it avoid those areas for now. Those specific stocks. And if it’s an ADF avoid those two. Okay. Um The transports I’ve been showing my account on the transports looking for a pull back into the middle of the year before who’s higher over the next couple of years. Same thing with utilities. This is just a universal expectation. May they found found a website says Crone for dot com. I don’t know what that website what is that a website that shows the specific stocks maintained that they that Robin Hood is going to limit. Um Anyway. X. L. E. Large cap oil. Um It’s it’s definitely moving in the way that I thought um Ron says the list is also on zero hedge. Good. So yeah, if you sent me an email looking for those, look please look on zero hedge, you might check out Cron for dot com but I can tell you as far as specific stocks that I have ever mentioned in my webinars. The only ones are mugs, A G and SLV that the silver mimicking E T F. Mhm. Um So I think we’re moving down through late february. So here’s another example that february is going to be a bearish month in the stock markets. Mhm. And um and then March is likely going to be an up month in in the case of large cap oil. I think it’s possible that large cap oil will be an outperformer in the months of March and april but eventually pulls back into july and that becomes the buy and hold spot for over the next year or two for some pretty massive gains. So on excel lee on the move down so far, I can see 12345 through here. And then then here’s another one where I think that late uh in the friday selloff is just a B wave within a small degree wave to, so I’m looking for Excel to bounce back over the next couple days before it continues lower. Yeah. Um so, but generally looking lower, you know, through the rest of the month. So looking for a little bit of a bounce here for a couple days and then more downside all the way through the end of the month on X. L. E. Um The trend has changed the downside on the daily charts on excel and did so on Wednesday of last week Short term 1- 240 minutes chart. It’s oversold oversold 1 2345 for one A. B. C. Expanded flat. Looking for a couple days of up. You know when you look through all the large cap oil stocks, they’ve all turned over, they’ve all turned over here and I think that they got further down to go. Now I’m for the rest of the month. K. B. E. Banking also very bearish candle last week. Um Looking in at the daily chart, uh can see 12345 down through probably here maybe at the bottom me then expanded flat for wave two. I think it’s the KB is going to move up over the next couple of days and Phil that gap right there before moving lower. Mhm. Um So K. B. E. Is currently on a cell signal and it’s still on a cell signal, you can see where the stomp is. Um But it is all it is recommending on K. B. E. To start trailing the stop. That’s what that little arrow is right there. So 1 29 definitely have a trend change on the daily chart on K. B. E. From up to down On the short term. We got a brown box stands on the very short term on 240 minutes chart. It’s oversold looking for a bounce for a couple days before downside continuation. Um The cannabis stocks that we use uh here at L. A. To a place where you see G. C. In order to as a proxy for the sector. And it reached up and tagged Good Fibonacci target for the end of blue wave. Y. I think these stocks are going to turn and head south here now down through mid year. Pretty big plunge. So I think this upper movement is is corrective. I don’t think it’s impulsive. I think it started with three waves up for a W. Three waves down for an A. X. And now three waves up. Or a way of why I think that’s done. Um I. B. B. Um It looks like it is put in a bearish engulfing weekly candle that looks like a reversal candle. I think this was a terminal thrust out of the triangle. The terminal third side of the triangle has five clear waves in it. One 2345. I think this moves down through mid year. Next V. NQ. Real estate. Um I’m looking lower through mid year on on this item. X. H. B. Homebuilders. Been amazingly resilient up here lately but closed. Um I can’t see it there. We had a reversal candle there see um a bearish engulfing candle on the last weeks um candle on home builders. Uh So I think that we’ve seen a top there and then X. R. T. You can see the big pull back from that mega often you know up shoot I think XRT this is a pretty good chance of crashing now but probably wouldn’t mess with it because um just too dangerous, too dangerous. And you know I’m yeah they made the authorities may actually get into looking what to see what specific traders were doing around these that this hot Hot list of 50 stocks start limiting accounts. I you know I don’t know but um I’d just rather not participate in that. I’d rather be uh more mainstream in trading right now. And that way they got no reason to come after me on my training. Uh and I think we have to keep the big picture in mind looking for a 20 correction in most items down through the middle of the year and then more upside. And that’s the general general idea. Last week I showed how many of the miners are, many of the shippers had put in, you know, looked like they wanted to reverse. And after a nice move to the upside over the last several weeks, I also was able to get trade navigator to bring Baltic dry index feedback alive. I don’t know why this disappear, but it’s back alive. So last week the Baltic dry index was about right there. Well, it was right there. It was that these are weekly candles. That was, that was the weekly candle. And I was saying this because I’m expecting a pullback through mid year. This would be a good time. I I recommended at least ringing the register at least some on some of the gains. And then look look at what the Baltic dry index did and now that he now that it’s uh streaming get on my platform. We also and also kind of took some of the junk off the charts and just showed some simple or easy divergence at that high. Um so it looks like to me that the shippers are going to participate in this downward movement and through mid year, I I think that it’s a pretty good bet that they will participate in the downside that I’m expecting in in the stock market, most related items through mid year. Um and so I can just flash through, taking too much time here, but you’ll notice these are weekly candles, the big reversal looking candle. And the notice that the by zone box has ended on this item with green by zone box, not so much there, definitely a red kind of a bearish engulfing candle there and that appeared inside of round box that looks like the beginning of a bigger reversal. Uh definitely a negative candle on this one. Big red look reversal looking candle here and so uh there as well yes a a big pin candle in a brown box so this hopefully you did what I recommended last last week if you’re in some of these shippers and decided to ring the register uh because these look like they’re they’re moving down G. M. L. P. Is an exception, it’s kind of staying up but gnk big red candle, big red candle gap down in a red candle, big two big weekly red candles and row in a brown box oversold condition. So this this looks like the reversal is underway and because I’m expecting almost everything to generally be week except for the U. S. Dollar through mid year, I I no longer can recommend hanging around here. Just wanted to make sure that you’ve that I reiterated what I said last week. Uh There’s one exception indian reversal looking candle week. I mentioned that salt was week last week and it really got weaker so um looks like a reversal on many of these uh still quite weak here. There almost all of them. There’s only two or three exceptions that were able to stay up. So I think we’re reversal to the downside on shipping. Um Moving on. Mhm. I think next is uh GDX.
Mining Stocks (GDX):
Yeah. Well sir uh this is the mining section. Take a look at uranium um generally expecting uranium to correct back through mid year. Um I’m still counting this as a 1 to 1 and then the second wave two is underway through mid year and then should get a nice blast to the upside. But it looks like um we’re going to get that pulled back according to Hurst through uh mid july initially down that looks like the month of february is going to be bearish here. GDX. I’ve kind of changed this account slightly. Um But let me just give you the overall perspective that I do think GDX is going to correct is still in a correction to the downside. When when you look at the GDX start, the proof is from this low right here. This move up here is a three, it’s not a five. Some have pointed out that it looked like it was a five on silver But but it was not a five up in gold and it was not a five up in G. D. X. So we still haven’t taken out that low from back in um november yet but I think we will um But I I just think it’s we’re in a correction corrections are difficult and I think person, the takeaway on G. D. X. Is this, I think that this correction lasts through mid year. I don’t think that there’s going to be really really strong upside movement in GDX until we get to mid year possibly according to Hurst all the way to august. Now I have done one repin here now that I wasn’t doing before and that caused me to look at this as more of a sideways move which is what it’s been doing sideways. So here’s the daily chart. Can anyone tell me why one of the reasons why I haven’t given it yet, why I would expect GDX to stay sideways and down until mid year anybody just as a larger perspective because you know you bet Jacob it’s the U. S. Dollar, that’s the that’s the big reason why and nick and and and and therefore this these stocks I think are going to move up and down. I don’t think they have a lot of downside. I think that um with gold and silver prices where they are right now, as long as gold and silver don’t puke out too hard. And I don’t think they will, I do think they’ll move lower. But these companies are making money generally across the board especially the better ones. And so they’re they’re profitable but I don’t think they’re going to really get up and go until the end of the U. S. Dollar correction and that I’ve been talking about july on that. Um But that has recently changed to june june. And so um this would be the projected end of the U. S. Uh dollar index upside wave two. So and and that would be june uh huh. So we may only get the the I just don’t think it’s going to be able to really push strongly higher until we get to june. That would be the earliest that we would get strong strong upside. Now they can be traded in the meantime and I don’t think they’re gonna get smashed too bad. Lot of them already have come down enough where they really are looking interesting and I’ll show you some of those. Um So The FFC cycle program is expecting a low February 24. That might be correct as the beginning of or the end of wave too february 24 But now that I’ve done this 40 week repin it’s changed things just a little bit And that may have been the incorrect thing to do, but I didn’t like where it was putting. It was putting it. It was still thinking that that we’re waiting for a 40 week cycle Trump. Well this item bottomed in March, just like everything else. Well and and the S. And P. That 40 weeks cycle trough was in late october. I think it was about right here, it’s here. Mhm. And I think that is It was maybe putting a 20 week here, so it was close. But because of this low in this item so much lower than that, I think the 40 week parolee belongs there. I don’t have to worry about that repent on the fsc cycle program and it still bears through february 24 I think the stock market is going to bear be bearish through pretty much late february. So if you’re I don’t think it’s time necessarily to buy this item with leverage or anything. I think that that that time is coming mid year, mid year, maybe this late, maybe not. Maybe here, invariably when there’s any kind of upward movement, I get emails from subscribers and I get it. I understand, but as you can see, I can withstand some This account can withstand even a potential wave one between now and the end of the year to the upside and um but I think ultimately the next buy and hold opportunity probably gonna be june july time for right here. Is there is there a chance to get in early on? Some items, like some of the better stocks? Yeah, I think so. We’ll look at that in a second. But as you can see, main count Expecting the wave to April three, Alternate count, we’re expecting the black wave to February 24. So we’re getting close we’re getting close. So I want to look at a few stocks the We’re not are not included on the red at 50 list here in just a second. But you know right now this it seems to be kind of chopping and working its way lower. I don’t see any reason to call a bottom yet on G. D. X. Um Now that’s not 25 cell. That would be a 29 exit exit. Mhm. Um G. D. XJ. Here’s another way of kind of looking what might happen here on the miners. We’ve got three waves in for a. W. Three waves up for X. Then an A. And we might get this big sideways triangle for B. In A. C. Down into let’s say june july back to the way four of one lesser degree. So I expect GDX J. Nicks real buy and hold expected to come in Real simple at the way 4 1 lesser degree. That’s at 41 93. Whereas on G. D. X. The way for one last year degree is right here. 31 22. You know if a person loaded up with at 31 20 to do I think they’re making a terrible horrible mistake. No because Even my low side target is just you know around 30 You know I’m a good burden right now is projecting 29 and some change as an investable bottom on GDX and admits that it is possible that it Might go down to 27 and change. So Would you be absolutely going to go bankrupt because you decided to buy a 31? No because you can easily Deal with a pull back to 27 some change from there. So so um bullish. I am bullish this group, but I don’t think we’ll get get into that screaming screaming higher stage until mid year and then, you know, you’re probably going to want to be in a bunch of these, including possibly Nugget and J nug, you know, and to catch some tremendous profits uh, over the next year or so. So that’s coming. So I’m not, I’m not a gold bear like E wi is, I’m a gold and silver bull, but I’m just trying to tone in on where these by points are and no, I don’t think they are quite yet. And I think the miners are going to do much, much better than the medals. And I think you can own large cap, small, you know, small cap, mid cap, as long as you do your diligence, due diligence on what you own once you’re getting. So here’s G D XJ and shows the potential the G D XJ could start moving to the upside if it does, mark my words, I’m gonna get emails. Is this the Big 1? no, This isn’t the beginning of the Big one. I’m not I’m not going to say that until we Get at least two late february, Late february. I’m expecting the stock market to be weak through the end of february. So this would be the earliest I would be likely to say. Yeah, yeah, you might, you might jump in and and start buying here, you know, just don’t leave plenty of dry powder, you know, don’t don’t go all in look for opportunities a bit later. But no, it’s the nature of the beast. And the fact is once these things move higher into 2022, possibly 2023, I think that that’s If we get the deflationary crash in late 2022, something like that, or 2023, you’re not going to be wanting to hold on to any, any of this. U Yeah. The thing that’s going to be hard to get ahold of then is going to be us dollars and the demand for dollars gonna be huge and it’s going to be the big winner after it pukes out to about 60 in the mid-60s on the on the on the U. S. Dollar index. Um So here’s the S. I. S. I. L. Chart. This is the because in E. T. F. Of the silver miners. And and you can see that that on this weekly chart there’s a lot of excitement. Not the emails coming in about a boy. The silver miners are doing awesome, aren’t they? You know, boy isn’t this the beginning of the big move? Does that look like they’re doing awesome to you? The the up move in. Silver miners is very, very select recently. A. G. Was the biggest and there were two, you know, a few handful of other ones that put up some kind of amazing little spikes that were probably um spikes that were kind of pain action along with the A. G. Move. But you can see on this chart right here, that doesn’t look like an impressive necessarily an impressive you know thing. Yeah, we could we could move sideways all the way into May according to this. And then do we get if we do put in a triangle here, it’s going to be a beautiful thing. Would be wonderful if you put in triangle because then we can set a target for the end of the thrust of the triangle and pick a spot to load in. But that that time is not now. I don’t think copper miners really took it on the chin hard last week. And so this appears to be the beginning of the move down and compromisers. As a matter of fact, I think it’s possible without the A. G. Without read it. This road map would be more immediately. You know, we wouldn’t have this kind of up spike here. It might it might have been more immediately embarrassed. So I’ll just be careful. I wouldn’t buy any silver miners necessarily to try to catch this light little move up inside of a triangle or anything. Um A G. There’s the spike in A. G. I think it’s basically created a baby wave sort of a sort of a spike. And I’m I would think A G would be extremely bearish now uh that there are many of these brokerages are going to be limiting trading except for selling On this one. And looking for to move back to 788. I wouldn’t want to be a long of a G here. I don’t think this is a breakout move. It’s too isolated, it’s too isolated. It’s just read it. Here’s another Reddit. The other Reddit stock marks. Yes, mug spiked from 90 cents to a buck 50, Thanks to reddit. And and but it closed all the way back at about 21. So I think monks is headed lower. I think Marx is headed back to 70 cents about mid year and then, you know, kid catch and move up. But this is all just read it, that’s all it is. This is a short squeeze. And I think that the short squeeze, the, the brokerages, they’re just going to put a stop to that that that method basically. Now barrick gold obviously too big of a stock. Too much volume. There were no nobody, nobody read it suggesting rating a stock like reading the short squeezes, there might be out there on barrack. Uh huh. So there’s absolutely no positive price action at all on barrett, same thing with Newmont, you know, it last week was the day of the week. And so notice all of these really looking at midyear, midyear, you know, uh now in the case of Baruch might be able to find a spot to buy it around 20 bucks. And I think that would be I don’t think that would be particularly dangerous at all. could get a nice move back to 25 and then a pull back to 22 before it moved higher. But I don’t see a whole ton of downside on these either. But here’s an example. A. U. Y. And I don’t have any only wave counts on this but A. U. I. There’s the March low. This stock was $2.23 at the March low and it shot all the way up to 702 in early August. And if I were to count this initial wave up, I would count as a five wave structure 12 345. Well there’s the way 41 lesser degree. And we’ve hit it aue has come back to its way for one lesser degree. This is a good stock. So anything around 450 I could see possibly buying and holding their. But because I don’t think the downward movement is done yet, I think it’s probably going to go. It’s going to give us a full .618. Retrospect 46 before for moving moving higher. Could a person by it right now and maybe look for a bit of upside out of an extremely oversold condition? Yeah I think so. I think they could. But do I think the bottom is in. No I doubt it. I doubt it. And you know it’s possible that this Reddit junk because it did enter into the sector on S. L. V. A. G. N. Marks. That that could be that could cause a more downward movement without too much up. But still this one is definitely from a technical standpoint it is currently sitting pretty much right at the way for one lesser degree and is therefore interesting. Uh huh. C. D. E. Too much of a darling. The thing that wants to stay up. I don’t think it’s capitulated near as much as what it needs to um E. Q. X. Now here’s here’s an item that is getting pretty close. Two. You know the way 41 lesser degree needs to move down to about 8:16. So it’s it’s not too far away from it. If sam this one has stayed up too much it’s still it’s too lofty. Go row. This one really turned into a stinker. It’s like mucks now it’s and it’s it’s really got very little respect anymore heckle has been doing well. But I think planting is going to pull back and I’d look through move back to the wind way for one lesser degree that we can see this stock drop in half before it becomes a by new gold. Probably need some more downward movement. Now this one sand is a royalty company and um as you can see and it probably gave a five wave of structure is moved down below the way four of one listed degree. And now it’s flirting down into the Fibonacci levels. And I just think this one is likely Going to with the sectors, it’s not going to take off yet. And you know, it probably give us a .618 retrace of the move up of the initial move up from March through august and so 5 18 would be the by its at 6 82. So it’s still a little high S. V. M. Silver mines. This is, this is uh the kind of what I’m talking about. This is a stock that showed a little bit of pin action because of a. G. But I just don’t think it’s it’s going to stick. I think we’re probably going to move down 2.618 retrace of the original five waves up back down to 4 33. So I just don’t think this is the time quite yet. Uh wheaton love this stock. I think it’s a great stop. But look at this potential head and shoulders had left shoulder, right shoulder. Um You know it got down to the way four of one lesser degree on Wednesday. But if the rest of the sector is going to move down through the end of february, I wouldn’t be surprised to see had to move on down to 32 and some change before we was higher. But this one this one’s down a lot. It’s interesting no doubt it’s down quite a bit. It was, it was up at 56 And it got as low as 37 recently. It’s pulled back quite a bit. A. B. C. X. A. B C X A. B. See triple zigzag. I think it makes them within like 32. Last week I surmised that lithium. My the L. I. T. Will probably have gone about as high as it can go. And look at the reversal candle. We’ve got the very next week looking for a pullback through middle of the year before it moves higher um tax.
Markets outside the U.S (DAX, FTSE, Heng Seng):
And then we’re going into some of the stock markets around the globe on the Dax last week I was looking for when I was calling the saying that I thought it had topped and would move down and it appears that it is starting to the downside looking for a move down to Approximately 10,008 77. Next I think it will move down below The late October low and it will do it in five blue waves and I think it has just started to the downside On the Daily Chart I can see 1212. Mhm. Or maybe a one Of a Diagonal 2, 3. I think this is probably just a wave one and a two three little four pull back and five. I don’t think we’ve seen five waves down yet. So I think we get a day or two of up a little way forward, not that strong. And then on down to finish an an initial five way structure to the downside. Then I think we get an expanded flat, it doesnt bottom, the B within the expanded flat doesn’t bottom until early March. So, a in three waves Be in three ways. See that would explain why they would allow it to continue lower into early March before they pulled back dax. The daily trend falling template that we have a trend change to the downside. On thursday of last week on the daily chart, we have a new sales signal on the dax. Uh I’ll go, uh huh, I would look for probably a complete retrace of friday’s price action before attempting a short there. Um fatigue could see uh huh very bearish recently. And on this monthly chart you can see a huge huge reversal candle on the footsie. And uh this looks like it’s not done with five waves down yet. 1, 2, 3 Getaway four bounds here now, five, then the expanded flat, same concept as the um as the dax. But instead of early March low looking late february low, but you can see the roadmap is rather choppy on the way down. And so it’s it’s this may require um a lot of patients and notice that this road map the way I’m drawing it in mid March, the dance will actually be higher than it is right now. Yeah, so I I’m not thinking this is just going to melt down straight away, you know? And I’m not counting it as a 121212 count like um the world’s largest Elliott wave counting organization is on the down, that’s where they’re counting the dow um trend change from up to down. Yeah, and moving on to, and that occurred on thursday of last week, a trend change on daily chart now, moving on to um stock markets around the world to start with the hang saying, I think by the time we get, you know, into well into next year, the hang seng is going to be much higher than it is now, much higher than it is now. But um we definitely have a substantial reversal candle, bearish engulfing candle on a weekly chart that is formed on the Hang saying, and I’m looking for a pull back to the way four of one lesser degree. Through mid year. So the aggressiveness of the start of this move to the downside, it if that’s it’s already made it about a third of the way, Damn. Uh So it’s not going to move down in a straight line. Mhm. Um it looks like 123 maybe need a away four pull back, There’s a big gap in the middle of the way three and then it should finish, Might pull back for a couple days and she finished the 5th way down through February 10, Given expanded flat through March 22. Then on down to the target into june of uh You know the way for one lesser degree and possibly all the way down to a .618. Uh huh. Retrace of the, of the Really clean clear five wave up structure. We just saw from the low In late September 12345. So looking forward to eventually create a mega buying opportunity here for a wave three of three. So one, 21 two. And matter of fact away three of 3 of three. So starting, you know, mid year looking for a tremendous rally on E. M. And hang sang uh a screaming rally huge and very well could be on the hang saying, you know, we start here. Yeah, a nice percentage higher. But to get them frankly can get higher percentages on Apple I think. And uh, some miners, even the large caps, wow, Newmont barrack, GDX I think that there’s going to be some percentage possibilities. NASDAQ for, you know, well in excess of, of a double or a triple even uh, from them low we see midyear coming this year. Yeah. So I think it’s going to be exciting here. Very exciting. And so far it’s exciting. I’m not sure the good way, but it’s stuff is happening. So we have a trend change to the downside. The E. M. As well. Are the shanghai looking at this as an expanded flat? I think we’ve started down into the middle of the year. Nikkei, I think we get a strong pull back down through mid year and the Nikkei but not looking for top until the middle of next year, or late next year. I think we finished Wave one of a contracting ending diagonal TsX Canadian stock market, big bearish candle last week. I think we have a the overshoot of the Wave B. I think I’ve got this label correctly. It’s just an overshoot way. Be looking for five ways down. Mhm. Back to maybe 14,400 on Tsx by the time we get to mid year ASX got a reversal candle last week, here’s a little closer look at it, bearish. Engulfing candle. That’s probably the top From the end of this triangle 123 open here for five, that’s probably the top on this. What? I’ll get it back into position so I can take a screenshot of it here. So looking for pullback through mid year, back to the way four of one lesser degree. That sound of 59 70 on A. S. X. And I think that has started nifty 50. I think we have definitely started in the into the move down on the nifty 50. I’m counting as a five wave of structure, complete From the March low for wave one through the the high we just saw looking for a pull back to the way for one lesser degree in july, then on up Uh to a major top, all the way up there at 21-30 very bullish. But right now, bearish on everything through mid year bones. So to be real interesting, you know, if there’s no place for to hide over the next few months on the long side in stock market, you know, I suppose it’s possible we could see some big, big money flows moving into bonds.
Um and not junk bonds, junk bonds looking for junk bonds to move down through mid year, right alongside uh All of the other things that are highly correlated with stock market and TLT, but on regular bonds, If we’re going to see any kind of flight to safety moving bonds, I think we’re gonna start to see it, you know, this week. Um You know, pawns, a lot of people don’t realize that bonds actually bottomed several weeks ago I think. Well jan 12 two weeks ago, little more than two weeks ago, Almost three weeks ago. And they’ve been acting like they kind of want to move up. It’s kind of similar to the U. S. Dollar. Kind of acting like he wants to build to the upside and I think that’s what it’s going to do. Uh um ZB contract. I still think we need a wave see in blue to the upside one last new high before the a very very large pattern and ending expanding diagonal is finished from the December of 1999 low for a very long term wave count. Mhm. Yeah. Um So Hurst is is bullish from late january up into july on bonds. Now the very there’s a pit stop along the way and when I look at the composite line on ZB it is The next it’s bullish from Jan 30. Let’s now all the way to March 23, Jan 30 All the way to March 23. Let’s see how that compares with us dollar index. Put a little comparison signal symbol in here. Okay so the U. S. Dollar index from back in March put down a five and put in a five wave down structure 12 three for five through this low. And you know on the US index on counting that is the end. If I waves down complete from the March low now it’s not so clean here, it isn’t really a five at all. And so I think almost everyone in the only way of community thinks that we’re going to get a move up in the dollar back to the extreme away four of one lesser degree. It’s pretty sizable balance in the U. S. Dollar After a five way of structure. And so the thing I’ve got to ask is because these items are pretty highly correlated. Why wouldn’t why wouldn’t there be an expectation of a rally in the C. B. Contract? All the way to june. Not just smart but all the way to june. They’re correlated. They’ve been correlated lately. Look at the helm nicely. The correlation that there is a dip down here. Move to the upside and a little bit of a neutron bomb went off in the markets right there but generally moved down here Now the dollar continued lower while the bonds held up here. But then they kind of connect back together. They’re moving moving together, moving together and bottoming about the same time here. And so I think if someone is expecting a balance in the U. S. Dollar until mid year then I think that it would make sense. We would get a bounce in bonds. Yeah the the the correlation isn’t absolutely perfect but it’s close is it possible for bones to go down for a day or two with a two day rally in the market? Yeah I even am showing that as a possible, you know alternate but I don’t think there’s I just don’t think there’s much more downward moving. Some Alia Titian’s think that this needs to like this is wave one then an A. And A. B. And the dollar needs to move just slightly lower before to finish. Like basically a wave too for moving higher. So. Yeah that’s possible. But I think the general trajectory in the dollar it’s going to be up. I think the low is in, I just wanted to overlay that because um you know I’m seeing some wave counters that are bullish the dollar and they’re and they’re bears on bonds and I uh that doesn’t seem to make sense as far as the way the correlations have been working lately. Also look on the ZB contract, there was a big oversold period of oversold as it moved into this low right here and then that oversee them did everything is climbing up out of there. Could this be a 1-1, 2? Yeah, that’s why I’ve got the main count as a possibility that was just move on up. Um um On a 240 minute chart ZB contract, it’s currently oversold according to ADX indicator. But on the daily chart there was a trend change on the daily chart from down to up and it’s been a long time since we hadn’t up up trend the last up term until we had in the Z. B. Contract was back in june that lasted a couple months. So we have a new uptrend according to this started Jan 25. It’s kind of chopping around a little bit here. Would it be wise to take a look at financials for a short term rally? No no not at all. Not not unless you if you’re if you’re a day trader if you’re a day trader and you you would only hold the position for one or two days then. Yeah I mean you can look at honestly anything. Uh huh. But would it be wise? No I don’t think so. I think I think the the optimal direction of the stock market has changed to the downside in the very next wave that I’m expecting is away. A major wave that would last for a while would be a wave three. So it depends on how comfortable you are trading to the upside and what would be a very short term wave too. For me I would never touch it that ever you know I’m gonna get I’m gonna get in line for this for this next wave three to the downside in stocks and I think lots of things are going to go down the same time In a wave three data and you know if you’re a day trader and you’re in and out in just mere minutes or whatever. Yeah do anything. Um So z is he in contract really looking the same thing here? Same thing. Uh you can see there’s a window where Hurst and the FSc cycle program agree that there’s a cycle trough do here. We’ll likely see some upward movement notice I’ve over laid the U. S. Dollar on this one as well. Uh You know on the 240 minute chart. This move to the upside that we’ve seen from the low on the Zeon contract, the tenure looks more substantial, doesn’t it? There there’s the glow That occurred on Jan 12 and 12 maybe 12 345. And now this is just a wave to to the downside and the over the downside is oversold. No I don’t think this is a short at all. Could have moved lower yell. But that would just make the buying just that much more easy the buying of the item in my opinion. Yeah. I will say this bonds has a tendency to trend but when it trends it can be choppy it there’s all it’s pretty noisy and we definitely have the potential of a trend change here. Notice on this, on this daily chart, that’s the only overbought or oversold uh thing that’s even happened lately, was that latest kind of plunge down in here. Um, so I would I, my preference even though the algo tried to get long and it’s currently in Los, but it stops is down here and it’s still a long and you can see there was a fairly long tail to end the week fainting. This looks bullish. Uh, commercials generally pretty long on the 10 year. Uh, and, uh, same thing on the ZB commercials, definitely more long than they are short, although not extreme at this time. And here’s the commercials positioning and here’s the large specks position. That would be the trend followers. So that is a bullish spread. So I think that’s, I think bonds have some upside in the tank over the next few months, that they some upside that they can, that they can show. Um, I don’t think I have much of anything to show you on this set here. Let me move on right now, Moving to commodities oil and gas. Well, oh, start with the crude oil.
Crude Oil & Natural Gas:
Yeah, crude oil. I don’t think crude oil has finished A full five wave up structure yet from mhm, the early november lows. So I think crude oil is one item that is going to uh and it has been, it’s been very stubborn on on any kind of downward movement really recently. It’s really been moving sign ways for the last few days. Ever since. Well, mid january for the last couple of weeks. It’s just been moving sideways. I don’t think that’s the big beginning of of a collapse. Um and from an Elliott wave standpoint, I was considering the possibility the top might be in, but it just hasn’t Shown any kind of price section where it wants to go down. This looks like a one two 34. This might be a kind of a triangle idea. And so we could get a final and I think we will get a final 5th wave up in crude oil. And in the form of five Greenways 1 two three, you know, that could have been the end away for way for might have, you know, might might form over here. But I think before Crude oil can take out green for invalidation of 48 96, it’s going to have 1/5 wave up in green and I still have a target up there around 58 a half run 58 a half 58 50. It’s currently at 52 14. Some kind of spike in oil. You know, what would cause that? I I have no idea maybe this. Some saber rattling over in the Middle East, that would cause a temporary spike, but I think it needs a The 5th wave up. Mhm. A relatively small degree. It’s not acting like it wants to go down impulsively at all. I mean, it’s been really staying up since um January 13, so I think it’s still got 1/5 wave up coming. I don’t know many items that I’m willing to say that of right now, but crude oil, I might even be the only one where I think there’s there’s another wave up and you can see, we haven’t seen a trend change, We’ve seen a train change on the daily charts, on these trend following templates. We’ve seen train change in just about everything so far, but not not this one, it’s just so far refusing to go down um Still in its still officially in an uptrend one. Troubling sign, is that the money flow, uh, index, It has now fallen down below the RSE. And so you can see these things are trending down, but price just isn’t, it’s just staying up, You know, until we get a daily close below 51 49. Then I think there’s still 1/5 wave up to go notice commercials short term are, are long commercials as a percent of open interest. They’re heavily long. So that suggestion we might get one more, one more fifth wave spike up natural gas. I think there’s kind of a puke out to coming on natural gas to be a pretty quick move down through mid february. Now, according to hers, mid february, 40 weeks cycle trough. And that’s a potential by, on, on natural gas. So we could have a potential by, on natural gas coming mid month february. So it’s just a couple of weeks away. Um It could be quite a, quite a plunge the way if it’s going to make it all the way back to the way 41 lesser degree. I don’t know if I can get there, but um it looks like it started to the downside and I’m gonna draw it more like this where wave see in in green Is 1.618 times the length of wave A in green. So um natural gas can be very, very volatile. And so if it gets one of those mega plunges like it sometimes gives could create, you know, a buying buying hold opportunity on natural gas that would last theoretically for months and months. If this wave count is correct, it looks like it wants to put in a capitulation move before it before it survived. Okay, moving to, I’m gonna show you the CRB index really quick. Yeah. Been updating some of these larger charts, showed you the DB. Agricultural fund last week. Looking for a pullback through mid year and then a screaming move to the upside um on the solar E. T. F. I’m looking for a pullback through mid year and then more upside D. B. C. The commodity index. We’re looking for a pullback through mid year. Uh huh. And then um a breakout move to the upside last year and a half two years uh hardly showed you on uranium. I don’t think that this pullback that we see just through the end of february is going to be the end of the pull back on C. C. J. Or uranium. It’s just going to be wavy of of a larger pull back structure. So um. Uh huh. Probably going to get something more like this on C. C. J. A pullback through late february, continued to move to the downside to leave february, uh move up through late March and then the final move down through mid year and then up up and away some more on on C. C. J. Mhm. A uranium stock CRB index. I think it’s completed a five wave up structure. I think the fifth wave up is likely done. Although if oil gives us that last 5th wave up, the oil is a pretty important participant in the Our portion of the CRB index might have one slight new high there and then pull back to way forward one lesser degree in mid year. And then than a big up move. So that’s that’s the general roadmaps on commodities as a group. Now moving to medals. Rocket. Yeah. We’ll start with copper.
Industrial Metals (Copper):
I think it’s likely that copper is the top is in and we’re going to move down in his exact through mid year. Back to the way for one lesser degree. No change here. This has been a little hesitant to get going. It kind of depends on the dollar breaking higher this I think will break lower. Pretty much the same time the dollar breaks, breaks higher out of this kind of mild little beginning. Move to the upside that the dollars put in. But overall there’s the road map generally um think copper is going to be involved with the correction now through uh mid year before moving higher, we did finally see a trend change from up to down on copper on the daily charts on on the trend following template. Daily chart that changed on Wednesday of last week to the downside is almost universal with the exception of crude oil. Mhm. Uh the algo is trying to deal with this chop. Look how long this is the problem. Copper look how long all these weeks and candles are every day. There’s so much noise in copper. It’s a really, really difficult trading environment. I can see a long term trader deciding to position trade on it with. But boy, for short term trading, the algo has a real tough time putting up decent numbers on copper. It’s just so noisy. Um and so I don’t even publish that, I’ll go what on copper because it’s just not good enough to put out there as far as part of a of a service. Uh things are looking for the uh for the most part quite bearish on copper. Of the large specks are positioned extremely long commercials or heavily hedged Daily Sentiment Index was recently as high as the 92 kind of working its way down now. So I think the Thompson on copper platinum, I’m not so absolutely positive that the top is in on platinum. I’m going to allow to allow it to make one more slightly behind the reason I I am doing that is because of Elliott wave. So from this low, right here in platinum A. b. and then 123 four. I want to make sure that didn’t move into the price territory of way one. It didn’t And this needs to be a 5 to the upside And I don’t see how it could be a five ending here. So I still, I think it’s got to I think it’s an ending contracting, diagnosed the subject divisions look correct for it to be an indian contracting diet unfinished. Now could that spike that we saw right there be a trunk case, truncated blue B. I guess so. Maybe because fifth waves of contracting diagnose can truncate. Yeah, well that doesn’t smell right. So it’s possible that that that is the truncated fifth wave. That would be very bearish. And boy, there was a mega reversal off of that that happened at the same time as silver, you know that that’s big spike candle, right? There might be rid it related and that could be a truncated top from planet. Is it worth hanging out for this fifth wave up and planting here with a long position? Absolutely not. No, not in my opinion, no. You know, we we’ve already hit the larger degree Fibonacci target and overshot it by a little bit. And I think this has a pretty serious pull back that it’s going to put in at the same time as we see a us dollar rally over the next few months. Um, palladium all of a sudden broke down this week. This looks bearish on palladium and the thing about palladium is why I can already see a finished five wave up structure. I think palladium has been, was leading all of this time. Leading, leading leading people were winning trading championships, year long trading championships by just like, like this year by just getting along palladium And just sitting on it all year one trade and then winning training championships because very mysterious aggressiveness to the move up and palladium. But now this looks this looks like trouble when palladium now moving to gold and silver. Yeah. Start with gold.
Precious Metals (Gold & Silver):
On the short term, I’m still, I’m still bearish on gold and I think it needs to finish this downward choppy correction that I think is unfinished triple zigzag Down through June 2021. The reason is because that’s when I’m currently expecting. It. Used to be july and hurts this change a little bit now sanctions that would be the end of the upward wave To that I’m expected has already started in the U. S. Dollar. And so I think the gold and silver in the miners are going to generally stay down until then and then I think they’re going to rally big. Really big because that is when I’m expecting the mega move to the downside and the U. S. Dollar index. So I think starting in mid year you’re you’re gonna want to be long gold silver, the miners, platinum oil stocks, you want to be short the dollar short bonds and that’s coming, that’s coming. So we’re over halfway there as far as on gold, it actually topped in early august. But right now this this looks pretty bears to me. Um The Hurst is bearish from feb one through feb 21. So this is, this is why this real graham right here is why I still don’t think it’s time to buy these miners. Not yet. Not yet. They wrote some of them already made their way back to the way for one lesser degree. It looks to me like they, they’re probably going to move lower. Uh huh. So looking to the downside on gold, hurst thinks down from feb one through feb 21. So I’ve already said, I thought february was going to be a bearish month in the stock market and I think it’s also going to be bearish income in medals and uh bullish on the dollar. There’s a little closer look, there’s, there’s, there’s multiple ways to count this. You know, I can count it as maybe finishing maybe finishing this correction that started in early august is as early as late february now late february and then it’s going to be important that this move up. If that’s correct, This would not need to be a three wave move up. It would need to be a five And then there would need to be a three wave pull back and that becomes the major, the major bind hold spot right there. Probably june the way I’m looking at it right now. So if this is a five up then that’s a really strong clue. Is there any reason to buy to this right now? I just don’t see why but I think it’s and this this move to the upside. Yeah, there’s a couple of what it looks like an abc to the upside but it also potentially is a leading expanding diag in five waves and in which case this might not be the top, it could it could go up here, So February, February one is still that’s that’s tomorrow. But is it worth trying to catch this step side? No, It’s worth trying to decide if wave two is finished or not and if it is, we probably get a hello five minutes chart, 10 15 minute chart visible, five way down structure here In a three way pull back. Um But as you can see Hurst is barest down through, you know, let’s say mid to late february, I must say late february. Um And that might be, you know an early spot to pick, pick a few winners in the mining category. The ones that are still down low, like a ui sand Newmont. Barrick gold in others. Um At some point Barrick and Newmont are going to start getting institutional interest again and that point might be later in february. Yeah. Yeah. Gold. The Algo tried to get long. Didn’t work, trying to get short. Didn’t work. It’s just such a choppy environment. I don’t like um trading using autumn momentum’s trades in a choppy environment 1 25. What? And then there’s really guys because a lot of stops to be hit in a lot of things, lot of stops to be hit and it’s kind of kind of a disruptive activity in the markets for sure. Mhm. You know the Dse was recently as high as the 69. Not exactly nosebleed territory on on on the on the sentiment on gold But easily could break down has plenty of potential downside from a 69 reading compare. And contrast that to the cinnamon on silver. We recently had a 90 here And then we had an 87 here And then the final day of the week we had an 83. So we’re getting some divergence on D. C. where the retail isn’t sure where they want to chase. And I think it’s I don’t think it’s a good idea to chase here. And I think the Reddit people may have basically created a situation where you know, this item was was going to go down anyway. I think according to all of my work, but they’re going to get blamed for it. So here’s the daily chart of silver generally looking to the downside into March. Um If this wave count is correct of an abc for a W. Abc for X. Abc for Y. Abc for X. And abc for Z. Then the next thing would happen in silver will be a five wave down structure. Uh huh. That might be a viable low. We got that large pin candle on Friday. And then on the 240 minute chart, the last two waves that have occurred have subdivided as followers. 12345 waves down followed by an A. B. C. Admittedly a deep Correction. But that last wave c 123 probably a triangle here for five. No invalidation. I actually um on Wednesday I had this as a B. Here and then I had over here I had the possibility that way be wasn’t finished yet. I had a big question mark over here. So basically I think that the alternate on the short term Chartist one that happened. And I think that it’s time for to move to the downside. Yeah in five waves down through late february. So right late february. That’s his March 26. Late February is what it was saying. Last last Wednesday. We’ll just I don’t think I had updated that one anyway. Barris silver dang it. And you can see um in silver on this 240 minute 80 X. Plus chart became extremely overbought there for a second. But look look at the money flow index versus the R. C. It was the RSC that became overbought. The money flow index lagged in other words of volume was lagging. So the the only thing really pushing silver higher, there was the short squeeze, it was the short squeeze it and it doesn’t appear that many new buyers were coming in. The buyers were people just simply exiting the people that were short of silver that we’re getting stopped out basically. So there wasn’t um there wasn’t a lot of buying volume behind that move and then also is a bearish typically or what they usually a bearish condition that you see when you see the RSC overbought, but the money flow index below it. While while the RSC’s overbought, there’s no, that means there’s not very much volume to really propelling it higher right there. Uh, and shows an underlying weakness on the move instead. You know, if there had been a tremendous amount of volume there, then it might be considered a strong move that would have upside continuation. I don’t think that’s what we’re going to get. Yeah. Uh, six months. Look back commercials are, are pretty much heavily short on silver. They’re fully hedged DC was recently as high as in 87 and then in a 90, not too long before that very high high retail numbers. This is not, this is not a condition you would see at, at, at the beginning of a giant move up. Typically on this at all, you have the large specks, heavily long commercials, heavily short. It’s just not it’s not a bullish spread. No. Have I seen it take off to the upside um When the spread was somewhat similar before. Yeah that was right back here In mid June. There was a 5th wave up and you can see that but here’s the big difference. The the retail was already extremely long but there wasn’t nearly as wide of a spread at that point between the large specs and the commercials. And the commercials were actually quite long. We’re closer to heavily long here then they were heavily short. Not at all the same here. Mhm. They’re moving to uh currencies to finish up.
Currencies & Cryptos (US dollar index, EUR/USD, Canadian dollar, AUD/USD, Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, Ripple):
Us dollar index. Yeah. Yes. So um I think we have completed five wave down structure in the U. S. Dollar index and looking for a three way of corrective pullback next into june and then looking for the dollar to plummet in wave, see burgundy To end wave five teal Cycle degree Way 5 to end a massive. Uh huh. Okay, Ending contracting diagonal that started back at the 1985. Top Back when at 1 64 72 which occurred back in 1985. So this would be, you know, the wave see within the abc Within the 5th wave of a diagonal can often be a crash like move. And that’s what I think we’re going to see in the U. S. Dollar. It’s going to create an opportunity to be along a lot of assets and and pick up some uh some appreciation. But once it gets down here and in november 2020 23 is what Hurst is saying Mid 2023 is so the bottom expected bottom of the next 15.6 year cycle. That’s not a her cycle, That’s just a known cycle. Um Then I think um the rebound will be a multi decade rebound in the U. S. Dollar and that will be a deflationary period, deflationary period. That’s where the deflationary crash occurs. And last possibly To 2032. Which is when the next K. Way 50 Year K. Wave low is expected in the stock market. The last key wave low. I know Based on my analysis that was in 1982 and prior to that was in 1932. Uh huh. So there’s your big deflationary thing, that’s what’s coming. But between now and then inflation, anyone holding assets is probably going to be in pretty good shape, hard assets, people that aren’t holding stocks, commodities um things are going to get awfully expensive for them crushing inflation. Um So looking for this abc rebound off of this 18 months. I called trough load that I believe occurred on January six in the U. S. Dollar next. It could be deep. Yeah it could be, you know maybe we get a .618 retrace out of this thing. But the minimum retrace would be back to the way forward. Unless the degree That would be back to 94 68 On the US index is currently at 90 53. So more than four points higher or four higher I guess you could say pretty rounding uh to the upside of the U. S. Dollar Dick. So is this A. And B. Finished here and it’s going to take off the upside? I think it is. I think it’s done. But um I’m leaving open the possibility of a couple of days of down on the U. S. Dollar index to finish a more complex pattern before moves higher. You can see that there is a cycle window up here for the peak That’s coming anywhere from feb 18 through March three. So late february. This is why I’m thinking stocks will be weak during february. That’s between these dotted lines that there’s the end of february and here is the beginning of february. So stocks week during february, stronger during March and then weaker on down through mid year. Well that’s what the dollar strengthens, right? Can pink. See Be almost 94.6 up. No, I don’t think so. Too long for a sea wave. Now. I don’t know what this how this is going to unfold. You know? And as you can see I’ve got this as a potential zigzag for a wave too. It’s usually the way drawing. But on the daily chart on dollar index, I’m projecting it is more of a complex something. But I don’t know what it’s going to be. I really don’t know. I mean hurst can help a little bit. Up through late february, down through the mid to late March next. And then we’ll see if this is a five. If this is a five, the neck could be an A. Then we’re gonna be Mhm. Down here. Yeah, somewhere. And these states, they’re going to morph between now and then. The trend is very likely changed On the on the daily chart, on the trend following template. We don’t officially have a green triangle inside of a green box. And we have a couple of green triangles, but they weren’t inside of a green box. And that’s generally what we used to to say for sure that the trend has changed. We don’t have those have that quite yet on the U. S. Dollar index. Yeah, There was actually a cell signal on the Algo on December 20 and it closed that That trade on December 26 in profit. In order to for the algo to start suggesting long signals this very smooth. I am a line is going to have to flatten down and start shouldn’t sloping to the upside and at that point will turn green and at that point only long signals will be will be possible. So it hasn’t gotten to that quite yet. It’s still looking for shorts and the last short worked, you know, for small gainer. Um Mhm. We really had a bullish, fully bullish. Perfect storm in sentiment back here. And uh mid to late december where the commercials were heavily long. Both measures, commercials along here retail large specks heavily short and the retail super heaven super Bearish. And at a nine. And since that condition we’ve seen, you know, one more slight new low but generally trying to work its way up out of that hole. Not very convincing yet. Usd jpy no real change here. Looking for a balance this year through mid year. Um The big change though is that this um narrowing wedge, this bullish wedge, it broke out of there and and is starting to move the upside. This is last over the last few days been one of the stronger items where the U. S. Dollar is definitely showing its strength against the yen to the upside. So that’s a breakout. There’s no question about it. Um Canadian dollar. Mhm. I think the Canadian dollar the bottom is. And just but beware if the oil has one more slight new hi maybe I’ll draw this on the daily chart. If oil has one more slight new high, it could try to, you know, maybe make all of this uh kind of a triangle or a running flat and have one more puke down. That’s that’s possible here. And the reason is because I don’t see a finished structure to the upside and crude oil. So, I’m not real sure on this one. If the bottoms in yet said that really hasn’t changed from last week, it’s the same thing I said last week. Uh huh. See if the daily trend has changed. Yeah, it’s acting like it wants to change. But once again, we don’t have on the daily trend following template. If we send these out to you every night, don’t have a green triangle inside of a green box. That’s not definitive yet, that the trend has changed. Mhm. We’ll get to the Euro pound Aussie Shefi and Bitcoin and we’ll be we’ll be out of here, man would be a done deal. Um Let’s see here, Ozzy, no big change in Nosy and Ozzy had started to break down. It’s a little choppy so far. I’m not sure exactly what kind of pattern is putting into into the outside. Could be 1212 might be a potential diagonal. But anyway, I’m still think that the top is very likely. And on the, on the Aussie, you see the big divergence on daily chart up here. I think it’s headed lower. Uh Once again, I want to remind you that just because they’ve drawn all of these Pullbacks into mid year, almost all of them as a zigzag doesn’t mean they have to be a zigzag. It could be a flat and in a flat you could have new high inside of there. Yeah, it shouldn’t be a triangle. It might be a combination W, X, Y or W. X, Y. Z. And those also could make potentially a new high insight. So right now I’m sticking with the yeah, with the idea of that, this entire first half of the year is going to be a zigzag in most onerous, but just please bear in mind no guarantee that that’s what it is. Could be a flat. Uh I need to see if this move down creates a five wave structure, that’s going to be the determinant. We had a trend change to the downside of the Aussie dollar on a daily trend following chart and that occurred on friday. So most, almost all items, you know, we have a trend change. Yeah. Um as long as this line is green, it will only try long signals. They’ll go and try to get along back here. That got stopped out pretty quick. This is awfully choppy. This initial movement. So we just need to see some more price action in order to know what it’s, what the policy is really trying to do here. Seems uh, down in the Euro. It’s, it’s been a bit cleaner I think on the way down so far. Also projecting a zig zak, potentially a flat. If we get a new high here and if it’s going to be a flat, this move down and have to be just a three wave structure. So we still don’t know whether it’s going to be a flat or zigzag On this one. I think we have a pretty clean one and 2 and looking on down. But I’m leaving open the possibility that wave to isn’t done yet. Maybe way too is a flat. So I think we’re going to learn a lot this week that this week’s and then give us some um, clarity and uh, notice there is room for that. We’ve to to interest in there, moved down in a wave three for five and end up landing. Uh Where Hurst has the next 20 weeks cycle trough nest. So this could easily, you know, mets around here and that’s the way to correction lasts a little longer and there’s still room for to give a five wave down structure down through late March easily. Um, So I’ll just leave a drawn like that. Um The daily trend actually turned down all the way back on November 11 on the, on the euro. Is that right? No january 11, Chin 11, yeah, gen 11. And then there’s been nothing but sell signals ever since. So it’s been a little uh had a little easier time moving to the downside. In the R. C. A pound dollar pound dollar. Just been putting in a herculean effort to try to stay up. And I think it’s in this diagonal and at some point it is going to break down. We’re going to get a really long candle out of this. And I think that’s relatively imminent. We will see the pound move aggressively lower after this slow grinding, basically narrowing wedge that surely is done or within an eyelash of being finished. And then I think it uh then we get this this move down uh through mid year, probably a zigzag back to the way four of one lesser degree. Yeah. Yeah. We’ll take a quick look at the swiss frank, what swiss frank, It looks a little more jumpy up out of here On the daily chart as one and then abc for two in the beginning of way three to the upside. Look at that. RSC that looks pretty, the swiss frank has a more bullish look to me. Yeah, so this would be the U. S. Dollar moving higher. More immediate bullish. Look then then what I’m seeing on on some other items, I am gonna leave open The possibilities weighed two is still underway but the way it closed last week, it looks like it’s ready to come break higher. Um Just a quick look at a couple of others that I’m in tracking. Um Yeah I think we’re going to get are pretty big bounce in the U. S. Dollar against the chinese yuan. Next um The bounce that I’ve been expecting in the U. S. Dollar against the mexican peso is underway and I think it’s very early and it’s kind of quite a ways to go and the bounce in the U. S. Dollar against this south African rand also I think has started and has uh substantially further to go on that weekly chart and then we’ve run to the crypto here. Mhm. The Kryptos also had a big spike on friday that I think probably had a little bit to do with um the Reddit crowd but then it gave it all up. Real real bad. So that that’s the way it closed the week right there. Let’s see what kind of price action we have since then. Yeah there see um these last two candles are this saturday and sunday candles. Uh I think that Bitcoin is putting in a leading diagonal to the downside and it’s going to move on down. Uh Probably going to try to tag. Uh huh that line of the diagonals or down here. So that would uh But have Bitcoin moving down next through approximately 26 826 8. Then a way to then on down I think Bitcoin is going to crash, it’s going to crash in this initial wave one of the crash down this is the latest hurst down through late april and they’ll just be wave one of a larger five wave down structure. So this uh this count is definitely working that the entire up move we saw in Bitcoin was a B. Wave stopped going up with a slight overshoot of the best target for the be waving of an expanded flat and they’ll I’ve got it moving Bitcoin moving all the way back From I think it it peaked around 41,000 and had Bitcoin moving this year All the way back to 1800 1800. Just a massive crash and burn So we’ll see if that works. I’m really only setting Fibonacci targets on this, starting into December 2007 high. So the way Be Target was established based on the length of this wave A and then the Wave C target was based also on the length away. They expanded by point 382. So I think Bitcoin there’s gonna be a rush to the exits on Bitcoin. So let’s see if I can turn my camera back on, figure out how to do that. There we go. Thank you so much for joining me and stopped screen share too. Hope you have a great week in the markets. Be careful out there. Uh Last week was fun um being a bear for the first time in many weeks and maybe maybe months. And um just I think that we’ve entered into a new trend change to the downside, but want to be careful over the next couple of days of potential bounds. There’s lots of other stuff that can be treated besides the stock market. Uh, so it’s exciting times. It’s gonna be really exciting to see what happens to the Reddit, this Reddit business, what they try to do to stop that and really fascinating times in the market have a great week, see you on the email if you need to contact me and we’ll talk to him right.
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