Copper daily 2-21-13

BDI weekly 2-21-13

Elliott Wave Analysis of Copper (QC futures contract) and the Baltic Dry Index by Sid from Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

Here are two ominous indications that a more aggressive phase of the deflationary downturn in the global economy has just gotten underway.

Copper appears to have begun a thrust from a large triangle, with a downside thrust target of $2.70. That’s a projected drop in Copper of about 25% from here.

The Baltic Dry Index appears also to have started a downward thrust from a triangle, with a drop to below 264.84 required if the expanding ending diagonal interpretation is correct. That’s a shear drop of over 60% from the current level.

I’ve been showing these counts without revision in my weekend webinars for many months. If these interpretations are correct, the bear market rally in equities since March 2009 is very likely at or very near its end. What’s the good news? Thrusts from triangles are terminal. They typically finish a lot quicker than it took the triangle to develop, and are followed by a trend change.