Elliott Wave Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.
Since the summer of 2011, I’ve been showing a main count in the US stock indices sporting a 5-wave impulse up from the March 2009 low through July 7, 2011, followed by a Primary wave A lasting 3 months through October 4 2011. However, the Primary wave B that followed has lasted 16 months. Because of the outsized burgundy B in relation to Burgundy A, I’ve decided to discard that count in favor of the alternate count shown in this post. Both have had a similar expectation, supported by a significant characteristic of upward large-degree B waves: overlapping price action on diminishing volume.
This new main count expects that all of the upward movement since March 2009 is a wave B, but at one degree larger in trend: Cycle degree. This wave count expects that cycle degree (teal) B either ended on February 19, or has one more slight high (or truncated 5th wave) left to go. Either way, a new substantial downtrend would be confirmed with movement below 13350.96.
Meanwhile, the dollar is rallying as expected, and commodities are falling, in keeping with the wave counts shown in recent weekend “Counts” webinars and EWP ScreenShots.