EURUSD 240m 3-1-13

Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

Beware of being overly bearish the euro right here. The break lower since February 27 could be a false breakout (known in Elliott Wave as wave B of an expanded or running flat). So far, it consists of 3 waves down, and has bounced a bit from where wave b pink would be a very common 1.382 times the length wave a (pink) was. Importantly, wave A pink was also a “three”, but was probably too brief to be a complete blue 2. If the count shown above is correct, wave c pink is due, and is likely to retrace at least .382 of the length of blue wave 1. The result would be a preliminary blue 2 target of 1.328.

If we do see a rally to that level over the next week, a head and shoulders will have formed, and wave 3 down would be next, carrying the euro to the 1.22 area if wave 3 blue is 1.618 times the length of wave 1 blue.

I’ll be explaining all of my long, intermediate, and short term counts for the world’s major stock markets, commodities and currencies during my weekend “Counts” webinar. All webinar enrollees will recieve access to a recording of the webinar immediately afterwards (whether in attendance “live” or not), and will also receive access to my weekend and mid-week EWP ScreenShots for the coming week.