EURUSD 240m 6-6-13

Elliott Wave analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

The Euro count shown in the last post was invalidated by today’s upward blast, so here is my revised main count. As you can see, I’m still thinking that the 4-year long triangle in the Euro ended at 1.37122 on February 1, and am counting the downward movement from there through the March 27 low of 1.27518 as a 5-wave impulse labeled black 1. Wave 2 black appears to be continuing as a “flat”. Wave A blue ended at 1.32438, and was most likely a corrective WXYXZ structure. Wave B blue followed in the form of a zigzag through the May 17 low at 1.27976, (and could not have been an impulse, as I had thought before, unless it was wave C of an expanded flat for wave B blue). Importantly, if counted as shown on the chart, wave B blue retraced just barely more than 90% of wave A blue, therefore meeting a requirement of wave B’s within “flats”.

This revised count now requires wave C blue to be a 5-wave impulse, and therefore must have started with a series of nested 1-2’s. Diabolically, both wave 2 pink and wave 2 green were rare running flats. Fr?!ick! Wave 3 of 3 occurred today in the form of a 250 pip blast. If this wave count is correct, price should continue to chop higher until a series of 3-4’s are complete. The most likely target zone for the end of black wave 2 is between 1.33453 (the .618 retracement of wave 1 black) and 1.35067 (the upper .786 fib retracement of black 1). Within that zone is a common Minor degree (blue) target, where wave C blue (of the flat) will equal wave A blue times 1.382. That target resides in the upper portion of the target zone at 1.34775. Based on the size of today’s wave 3 of 3, the upper portion of the target zone is preferred anyway.

Sid
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com