Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.  Click on the charts to enlarge.

There appears to be quite a debate going on these days about whether the Euro is finished going down or not.  In my opinion, a combination of Elliott Wave and Hurst cycle analysis suggests that the March low is, in fact, a major bottom in the Euro.  Here’s why . .

EURUSD weekly 5-19-15

As shown in the weekly chart above, the triangle that started in the EUR/USD currency pair back in October of 2008 lasted over five years, finally ending in May 2014.  Triangles are followed by terminal thrusts.  So far the downward thrust has carved out three waves down.  Many are still expecting a 5th wave, but I don’t think that’s going to happen for several reasons:

  • The initial drop from the July 2008 all-time high through October 2008 was a “three” (in the form of a zigzag).   This is why I’ve labeled the October 2008 low as a primary (burgundy) degree wave W.  If that interpretation is correct, the multi-year triangle that followed was an X-wave triangle, and the downward terminal thrust out of that triangle was a burgundy wave Y.  Y waves are “threes”, not “fives”.
  • Utilizing R. N. Elliott’s triangle measurement technique, the measured target for the end of the thrust from the multi-year triangle in the Euro was 1.04470.  ( I was able to finalize that target back in July 2014, when the Euro broke down out of the blue trend channel).  In March of this year, the Euro started a substantial reversal at just 15 pips shy of that target.  The thrust target has essentially already been reached.
  • Hurst cycle analysis is considering the March low a 4.5-year cycle trough.  This suggests that a multi-year uptrend in the Euro has already commenced.
  • Thrusts from triangles are generally relentless, typically racing within a narrow channel, or in parabolic fashion until abruptly ending.   The 1005 pip bounce since the March 13 low in the Euro simply does not fit well within an expectation for a downside thrust continuation from the May 2014 top.

EURUSD daily 5-19-15

Moving on to the daily chart (above), examination of the internal wave structure within Burgundy wave Y shows the completed black ABC zigzag structure.  Within both black wave A and black C, there was blue 3-5 MACD divergence.  Also, the final capitulation into the March 13 low was a terminal thrust from a blue wave 4 triangle.  Importantly, wave C black was slightly shorter than 1.382 times the length of wave A black, once again suggesting that the entire drop from May 8 2014 through March 13 2015 was an ABC, and not a 123.  (Wave 3’s are typically 1.618 times the length of wave 1’s, or longer).

EURUSD 240m 5-19-15

Finally, upon examination of the 240-minute chart (above) , if a major trend change has occurred, we would expect a 5-wave structure to the upside to support the idea.  So far, we’ve seen a blue wave 1 in the form of a contracting leading diagonal followed a characteristically deep blue wave 2.  Then, wave 3 blue ended within just 8 pips of being 1.618 times the length of wave 1, a very typical relationship of wave 3 to wave 1.  Now, it appears that blue wave 4 is underway, if not already finished.  Wave 4’s most often retrace wave 3’s by a Fibonacci .382 relationship, so a good target for the end of blue wave 4 is 1.11052, which is only 53 pips above blue 4 invalidation at 1.10519.  Wave 4 appears so far to have completed a pink ABC corrective structure to the downside, with wave C only slightly longer than wave A was.  It is also possible that blue wave 4 will carve out a longer lasting triangle, as long as the pair stays above blue 4 invalidation (1.10519).

If the Euro continues lower than blue 4 invalidation, the April low of 1.05203 would then become invalidation, as my alternate count would become the main.  That alternate would expect that a nested bullish 1-2-1-2 is underway starting from the March low.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com