Elliott Wave Analysis of the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.
Today’s slight new low in the GDX below the June 26 low is a big deal. Essentially it sends a message that the GDX has further down to go over the next few months and quarters. The new wave count shown in this post indicates that wave 3 black is incomplete to the downside, with additional new lows due mid-2014.
That being said, Hurst cycle analysis, as I pointed out in the last post about Gold/GDX, is projecting a significant nest of cycle lows on or near November 29. Based on the internal wave structure since the June low, GDX is therefore nearly finished with pink wave B within what will eventually be an Elliott Wave FLAT for blue wave 4. If that interpretation is correct, despite today’s slight new low for the year, the gold miners ETF should rally next in a 5-wave impulse to complete blue (minor) wave 4.
Please note that a running triangle for blue wave 4 is also possible, in which case the upcoming rally would carve out a green ABC to the upside instead of a green 12345, and would end before reaching the level of the August 27 (wave A pink) high.
This is a great example of how Hurst cycle analysis kept subscribers from getting long the GDX too early. Conservative traders will now wait for confirmation of the predicted up-move in the form of a small-degree upward impulse for green wave 1 followed by a .5-.618 retracement for green wave 2 before getting in.
For more information about Hurst cycle analysis, click on the Sentient Trader logo on the right hand side of my website. (-: