Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P500 SPX – the “bullish ’til June” scenario – by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. As always . . please click on the chart twice to enlarge.
The push off yesterday’s mid-day low followed through aggressively today, and looks to have legs. So . . (trumpet blast) . . enter my new alternate count, which I’ll call the “Bullish ’til June” scenario. And what better way to put the final nail in the coffin of this smoke-and-mirrors bull market than a diabolical ending expanding diagonal? They’re rare enough that nobody looks for them until their face has been ripped off trying to get short, or long for that matter.
If this count plays out, it’ll buy the market the time it so desperately needs to overreact some more to what the Fed may or may not do with QE3! Also, since I’m looking for a continued corrective rebound in commodities, and since the Dollar has a ton of room to retrace for while, it all has a pretty reasonable fit.
I know, I know . . in an expanding ending diagonal, wave 3 cannot be shorter than wave 1. And it is shorter. To that I say, Mr. Prechter, it’s time for a new edition. There are too many times when wave 3 of a contracting diagonal is longer than one, and wave 3 of an expanding diagonal is shorter than one. The rules regarding the associations between the waves inside diagonals should be changed from “always” to “almost always”. Also, let me say that according to R.N. Elliott himself, the wave principle is best applied to large “free” markets, where mass psychology can reveal its ties to nature. I ask you, are our markets today completely free from intervention? What is the Fed’s mandate? Answer: TO INTERVENE. So forgive me if I take a slight liberty with the “rules” and apply a structure label because it appears to make decent sense, at least as an alternative at this juncture.
If the scenario depicted on the chart plays out, after the Grand Supercycle X-wave we’re in is made whole, we’ll get that last “push over the cliff” (homage Nigel Tufnel) that’ll destroy buy-and-hold for decades, not just months. So if you think a lot of people missed this bull market, only a very select few will get in on the real “greatest buying opportunity of all time”, the bottom of Supercycle Wave Y within the Grand Supercycle Wave 4.
Psssst . . Keep this quiet, but there’s an even more bullish alternate count, and one that doesn’t break any rules. It involves a 1-2-1-2 kick-off to start wave 5 burgundy. Very bullish. I’m not gonna show it yet . . . uh, waiter, . . more wine, please . .