Here is my current Elliott Wave Analysis for the S&P 500 Index (symbol SPX). While my previous expectation for a wave 4 black running triangle or expanded flat has not been invalidated, because the upward movement in the Nasdaq COMPQ index from March 16 through April 6 counts as clearly impulsive (1-2-1-2-3-4-3-4-5), and is confirmed by the MACD, I believe it is most likely now that wave 4 black did, in fact, end without fullfilling the guideline of alternation on March 16 in all of the major US Stock Market Indices. Since then, I am counting a wave blue 1 and 2 complete and am expecting that we are currently in a wave 3 blue to the upside. When 5 blue waves complete, wave 5 black (intermediate) and therefore wave 3 burgundy (primary) will also be complete. Because wave 3 black was shorter than wave 1 black, wave 5 black cannot be longer than wave 3 black was, so the ceiling for wave 3 burgundy is therefore at 1420.
Then, I am expecting a wave 4 burgundy (at primary degree) correction, which cannot move below 1128.75 before a 5th wave at primary (burgundy) degree likely takes us to new highs. The most likely target for the eventual end of wave 5 burgundy, and therefore cycle (teal) wave C, and therefore supercycle (olive) wave X is where wave C teal will equal the length of wave A teal, and that is at 1562. There is also a fibonacci zone of targets at 1432-1444, so the internal wave structure, using daily and 4-hour charts will be required to hone in on the final target zone moving forward. Additional fibonacci targets for the end of this bull market will be possible after wave 4 burgundy completes. It is important to note here that if the SPX eventually moves above its 2007 all-time high of 1576, this count will not be invalidated. I believe we are in a Supercycle Wave X here, so it need not have a relationship (within reason) to the extremes created during the completed expanded flat that I have labeled as supercycle (olive) wave W on the chart, which lasted from March 2000 through October 2007. See the March 6 post for my long term outlook for the US Stock Market.
I’ll be going over my thought process in developing this count, as well as my Elliott Wave counts for Gold, Silver, EUR/USD, US Dollar, and more in tomorrow’s webinar. There are still plenty of seats available, so please join me! Thanks, and see you soon . . Sid from http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com