Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P-500 (SPX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

As shown in my last post regarding the S&P-500 (June 6), my target for the end of wave 2 black has been 1345. The week ended with a rally to 1343.32, but the upward wave structure doesn’t appear complete yet, so I think it most likely that the SPX is seeking a higher target, the .618 retracement of wave 1 black at 1369.94. There are two additional fibonacci targets at virtually the same level. The first is at 1367.03, where wave C blue will equal wave A blue times 2.618, a very common relationship. Also, at 1369.98, wave 5 pink, which appears to be extending, will equal the net traveled by waves 1 through 3 pink, also a very common target ratio for an extended 5th wave. This very tight target zone (1367-1370) looks likely to be reached about mid-week, which happens to correspond with the Fed rate decision and growth forecast announcement on Wednesday. I’ll be looking for a breakout below the trendline extending from the the extremes of waves 2 and 4 pink, as well as a small degree 5-wave structure to the downside (visable on a 5 minute chart) as strong clues that wave 2 black is complete. Movement below 1320.75 indicates that wave 3 black is underway if this wave count is correct.

The top in the SPX will likely be preceeded a bit earlier in the week by the end of a terminal upward thrust out of a “x” wave triangle in the GBP/USD currency pair. The thrust target in the Pound, using the R.N. Elliott triangle measuring techniqe is at 1.578, just 4 pips shy of a 50% retracement of the April 30 through June 1 Wave 1 (blue). Cable ended the week about 80 pips shy of that target. Once wave 3 blue commenses to the downside, it should be quite aggressive to say the least, if my wave count is correct. Check my May 9 post for the larger picture, and eventual downside target.

For updated wave counts and targets for the other major world stock markets, commodities, and currencies, please join me for my live weekend webinar. Here’s more info, including how to enroll . .

Have a great weekend . .

Sid
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com