Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P-500 (SPX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.
After plunging 12.48% from May 20 through August 24, the S&P-500 it has now recovered over 84% of that drop. Will the rally continue? There are several technical signs the market may be ready to roll over again:
- As you can see on the 240-minute chart, it is possible to count five blue waves down from the truncated end of a contracting ending diagonal on July 20 through August 25, with the 5th wave in blue being very slightly truncated, ending within 7/100 of an S&P point of the bottom of blue wave 3 (on Aug 24).
- The subsequent upward movement has moved so far in 3 waves, labeled on the chart as blue A, B, and C.
- Wave C blue has reached just slightly beyond 1.618 times the length of blue A (2076.43).
- Within blue C, pink wave 5 has stretched just beyond .618 times the net traveled by pink waves 1 through 3 (2083.7).
- Within pink wave 5, green wave 5 has reached .382 times the net traveled by waves 1 through 3 green.
- The MACD histogram on a 240-minute chart is showing a large divergence from the MACD line starting Monday the 26th.
- The Fibonacci relationships have created a target cluster for the end of blue wave A from 2076.43 and 2092.84. The SPX has stretched to the upper edge of that zone today, with an intraday high so far of 2093.29.
- Hurst cycle analysis is expecting a nested 80-day and 20-week cycle crest centered in the early days November, but starting tomorrow, price will reside within the topping date window for both cycles.
- Finally, Hurst cycle analysis expects that a nested 80-day and 20-week cycle trough is due in early December.
For all those reasons, the market rally that started August 24 appears to be complete, or very nearly so.
Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds. Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items. A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterward, whether they were able to attend “live” or not. Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week. All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus. Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable over the years.
Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com
P.S. – The following material was added to this post one day later, on Oct 31:
Almost immediately after I made the original post above (around noon Friday, October 30), the market, on an intraday basis, started moving to the downside quite aggressively. About that time mid-day, on a very short term chart of the ES contract, I noticed realtime that five clear waves to the downside (with proper internal Fibonacci relationships and wave subdivisons) were evident from the pre-market (Friday) high. So, after the market closed on Friday, and after a fresh Sentient Trader Hurst cycle analysis, the SPX cash index chart now looks like this:
This prompted several emails from non-subscribers ( yet . . (-: ) with questions about whether or not I had correctly predicted the big up-move in stocks from the August lows. So I went back to actual screenshots sent to EWP ScreenShots (and EWP “Counts” Webinar) subscribers in late August. Here are three of them:
