Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle Analysis of Treasury Bonds – by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.
Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that virtually every Elliottician and talking head fundamental analyst was expecting bond prices to plummet and yields soar? The consensus expectation was initially that the July 2012 high in bonds was the end of the 30-year cycle, and then, when new highs occurred in January 2015, the overwhelming sentiment was that THAT high must finally be the end of the multi-decade uptrend in bond prices. For the record, I’d like to present several unaltered screenshots that were originally provided to my EWP Counts Webinar and EWP ScreenShots subscribers over the past several quarters. First, here’s my wave count on the TLT treasury bonds ETF from May 10, 2015:
Also, included in that same May 10, 2015 edition of EWP ScreenShots was the following long-term (monthly) chart of the ZB futures contract (30-yr-T-Bonds):
Moving forward a few months, on August 2, 2015 EWP ScreenShots subscribers received the following screenshot of TNX (10-yr note yield) – weekly candles. Notice the clear 3-wave rise from the early 2015 low:
All the while, Hurst Cycle Analysis was projecting ahead that the next 18-month (and potentially 4.5-year) Hurst cycle trough in stocks was due in March/April of 2016. I’ve pointed out in every “Counts” webinar in since mid-2015 that investors would likely be jumping out of stocks and into safe-haven treasuries the closer we got to the first and second quarters of 2016, and that bond prices would rise into mid-2016, and yields would fall as a result. This was the exact opposite of what the consensus expected all along.
Here’s the screenshots of TLT provided to paid subscribers on August 2, 2015:
Notice the labeling of a large 18-month cycle trough at the June 26, 2016 low.
Then, in the November 15, 2015 edition of EWP ScreenShots, I was able to confidently label the November 9 low in TLT as the 20-week cycle trough, which was likely to be followed by strong upward movement into the projected mid-2016 large-cycle top (see screenshot below):
So rather than calling for bonds to crash lower week after week, and month after month like the great majority of analysts, my paid subscribers were on the right side of the bonds trade going back many months and quarters, and still are. They were even given a pretty good idea of when the smaller moves to the upside and downside would occur, in keeping with the shorter cycles, like the 40-day and 80-day, which I show on the daily, 240-minute, and 60-minute charts each Sunday and Wednesday.
Has your current subscription service correctly forecast market direction in bonds in recent quarters? Does it combine multiple robust methodologies of technical analysis to derive a high confidence directional forecast? If not, you really should give my paid subscription services a serious look.
Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds. Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items. A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterward, whether they were able to attend “live” or not. Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week. All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus. Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable.