EUR/USD – February 23, 2011 – weekly candles. Here’s my revised long term count for the Euro . .

Here is my slightly revised longer term count for the Euro.  The key to this new count is the re-labeling of the upward price action from June 5, 2010 through October 30, 2010 as a five wave impulse, and therefore re-labeling it as minor wave A (blue).  This new count therefore calls for current price action to continue up in 5 pink waves to complete wave C blue, thereby completing wave 4 black of a descending contracting leading diagonal.  In order for this count to be correct, price can not move up beyond the invalidation point of 1.54155, but, because I’m calling for a contracting diagonal, price really can’t be expected to move up much beyond the 1.4500 area.  This is because the 1.4500 area is approximately where price would meet the upper line of the diagonal, if it were to continue to angle in a narrowing fashion with the already nailed-down lower line.  It is worth noting that an expanding diagonal is possible, but is far less likely due to the rarity of that structure, so we’ll deal with that if the Euro moves beyond 1.45’ish. 

In the shorter term, if this count is correct, because wave 4 of a contracting leading diagonal must be a zigzag, price must keep moving up (at a minimum) beyond the extreme of wave A blue, which is 1.42834.   The eventual downward price target is still below 1.8754 because wave 5 of a leading contracting diagonal cannot truncate, and must therefore move below the extreme of wave 3 black.

If the Euro doesn’t move up aggressively from here, my (now alternate) long term count will regain Primary count status:  see  The two counts are quite similar, but one expects a little more upward movement than the other before moving down below 1.2.