It’s been a while since I posted to the free blog, so here’s an update on the current Hurst Cycle analysis of the S&P-500. I’m basically tracking two different analyses. One starting at the year 1980 high, which I showed in my last post, and the one I’ll be showing in this post, which starts at the year 1966 high.
1966 is widely considered the year of the wave 3 top within a 5-wave impulse up from the 1932 low. The sideways whipsaw action from 1966 though 1974 is interpreted by many Elliotticians as a cycle-degree 4th wave expanding triangle. This Hurst (Sentient Trader) analysis places an 18-year cycle trough at that 1974 low, and moves forward from there:
Here’s a closer up view of that same analysis, starting at the 18-year cycle trough in March 2009. This default (no-re-pinning of troughs was done) Sentient Trader software analysis places the last 4.5-year cycle trough at the June 2013 low, and expects the next 4.5-year (and 9-year) cycle trough in about August of 2017. Notice that the Sentient Trader composite line is generally expecting downward movement in stocks from about now (late May/early June 2016) through August 2017.
The following screenshot shows the price action from the June 2013 4.5-year cycle trough through the next projected 4.5-year cycle trough due in August 2017, including the “composite line”. Within each 4.5-year Hurst cycle, there are three 18-month cycles. The first 18-month cycle of the three is typically bullish, the middle 18-month cycle of the group of three is typically neutral, and the last of the three 18-month cycles is typically bearish. This analysis has labeled the recent February 2016 low as the beginning of the 3rd 18-month cycle.
Finally, zooming in even closer, the composite line is projecting that the next swing high top (currently due between May 27 and May 31) should be followed by general downward movement through mid-2017. Why would the composite line suggest such an early top within the current 18-month cycle? Because, according to this unaltered Hurst cycle analysis starting in the year 1966, the S&P is inside the final 18-month cycle within a 4.5-year cycle, AND a 9-year cycle. So, the 9-year and 4.5-year cycles are already pushing down on price, and the downward pressure being exerted on price by those two cycles will theoretically continue to gradually increase, until the cycle is over in about August 2017, if the starting point of this analysis is correct.
So how does the expectation of coming Hurst cycles peaks and troughs (including shorter term cycles like the 80-day and 40-day) fit into my long, intermediate, and short-term Elliott Wave counts, and associated Fibonacci price targets? Please subscribe to one of my services to get the whole picture.
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