Quick SPX Elliott Wave update from Sid @ ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.
As my regular paid subscribers know, the main count for several months in the SPX (S&P-500) has been that a black wave 5 ending contracting diagonal has been underway ever since the mid-October black wave 4 low. Today’s price action indicates that the (black wave 5) ending diagonal may have completed earlier this week, on April 27. If that’s the case, here’s the wave count of the internal wave structure since early December.
If this wave count is correct, the 5th wave (blue) of this diagonal was particularly weak because it was unable to slightly “throw-over” a line extending from the extremes of wave 1 and 3 (blue). (Commonly, a “throw-over” followed by a quick reversal is a strong clue that an ending contracting diagonal has concluded.)
There are other wave count interpretations. For instance, pink wave B may still be underway as a running triangle. (That is actually my main short-term count). All main and alternate counts on all timeframes are shown each week in my weekend “Counts” webinar, as well as in my Sunday and Wednesday editions of EWP ScreenShots.
It should be noted that Hurst cycle analysis is suggesting that the top isn’t quite “in” yet. If my interpretation of Sentient Trader’s Hurst cycle analysis is correct, the S&P won’t put in its 40-week cycle crest until late May/early June. This suggests that either pink wave B is incomplete as a running triangle, or we may even see a “blow off” top over the next few weeks.
Its been a while since I showed my top two long-term SPX wave counts at the free blog. Here they are, on a single monthly (semi-log) chart:
The most important aspect to know about these two longer-term wave counts is that the next 4.5-year Hurst cycle trough is due in March/April of 2016. Whether the 2015 top is “in” or not, we should see substantial downward movement into March 2016 starting in approximately mid-2015. When we get closer to March 2016, if the downward movement has been corrective and fairly shallow, the primary (burgundy) wave 4 labeling will be preferred. If the downward movement through that time has been more impulsive and aggressive, and has carved out a 5-wave structure, the burgundy wave A interpretation (my main long-term count), will be the more likely.
For a much more complete picture of the quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily, 240-minute and 60-minute time-frames on the S&P-500, and many other pertinent and trade-able items, please check out one of my paid subscription services. You can try one of them for just one week, with no further commitment or obligation if you wish. Many traders, investors, and money managers have found my services quite informative, helpful, and ultimately profitable.