Quick Update on Crude Oil from Sid at ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart to enlarge.
The combination of Hurst cycle analysis and Elliott Wave is suggesting that the recent bullish period for crude oil has likely come to an end.
A Hurst analysis starting at the 2008 high suggests that oil has topped, and will move down next through September of next year (2017). If that scenario is correct, we are likely finished with primary (burgundy) wave 4, and burgundy wave 5 will take oil to new lows below the February 2016 low into next year.
A Hurst analysis (of the continuous CL futures contract) starting back in March 1983 is also bearish from current levels, but only until early December 2016. In that scenario, Oil is unlikely to make new lows below the February 2016 low, but wave 2 (black) is incomplete.
Both scenarios are bearish from about now (mid-October 2016) through at least early December 2016. Here’s the weekly chart:
So how can this be traded? That would require additional daily, 240-minute and 90-minute charts. Please join me for the next Weekly “Counts” webinar, Sunday, October 16, at 9am (CDT). During each weekly webinar, I present my current combined Hurst and Elliott analysis using multiple timeframe charts on many of the world’s major stock markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds. Additional methods of technical analysis are also considered, including sentiment extremes, trend exhaustion, multi-timeframe MACD divergence, and inter-market correlations. A recording of the webinar is made available to all subscribers immediately afterwards, whether they were able to attend the “live” session or not.
Don’t have time for a multi-hour webinar? Maybe your understanding of spoken English is not so good? Then please consider my EWP ScreenShots service. EWP ScreenShots editions are published on Sundays and Wednesdays, and include multiple timeframe analysis of SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, US$ Index, EUR/USD, and treasury bonds (TLT of ZB contract). The Sunday edition also includes many bonus screenshots, including the great majority of items I cover during the Weekly webinar. All EWP “Counts” webinar subscribers receive all editions of EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.