DJIA 60m 2-10-13

Quick Update on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by Sid from  Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

For those who’ve been tracking my main count for the SPX, DJIA and Russell, you know I’ve been looking for a completed blue wave C of a zigzag up from the November 16 low. The herky-jerky up and downs over the past week count slightly different in the three indices, but this count for the Dow has the cleanest look to it in my opinion. I have pink wave 3 ending at 13969.99 on Jan 29, followed by a green w-x-y, with the middle x section forming a triangle. The downward thrust from the triangle was on Feb 7, completing pink wave 4.

If the recurring fractal I discussed in the last post holds true to form, wave 5 pink will be short. There is a target at 14048.56 where the net traveled by waves 3 though 5 pink equal 1.382 times the lenth that wave 1 pink was. There is another target at 14120.42 where wave C blue equals the lenth of wave A blue times 1.382. If the Dow is up about 55 points at some point on Monday, it’ll hit the trend-channel mid-line, which has marked the end of short 5th waves in earlier versions of the fractal described on the chart.

Bonds and the US Dollar look to be rallying in a new trend, and the DAX and EuroStoxx 50 have already shown 5 waves down from their tops in late January. With sentiment at extreme bullishness, volume continuing to shrink, and mutual funds at a historic low percentage in cash, the chances of a top in US equities early this coming week are high in my opinion.