Silver weekly 7-31-13

Silver 100 years 7-30-13

Revised Long-Term Elliott Wave Count on Silver (XY futures contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

Upon re-examination of a 100-year (admittedly inflation-adjusted) chart of Silver (shown courtesy of a screenshot of a chart found at Macrotrends.net), it seems most likely that the century-long upward move through 1980 was a Supercycle wave 1. Two reasons this conclusion makes sense are because A) subsequent downward movement (from 1980 though 2001) is corrective, and B) price (though 2001) overlapped peaks from the early 20th century, preventing the 2001 low from being labeled a supercycle wave 4. So, if Supercycle wave 2 ended in 2001 (as shown in the attached chart), Supercycle wave 3 is initially getting underway with a leading expanding diagonal. This would explain why both the upward and downward waves since 2001 count nicely as corrective.

If this new long-term count is correct, Burgundy wave 4 is likely incomplete, needing just a final completion to pink wave 4 and then a pink wave 5 to finish.

Typically, waves 2 and 4 of diagonals retrace between .66 and .81 of the preceding wave 1 or 3. This produces a typical target zone for a burgundy wave 4 bottom in silver at 13.3 to 17. However, Gold may have already put in its low with a longer-term downward wave count that can be interpreted as complete, so Silver may not be able to reach as low as 17. Actually, after the highly extended pink wave 3 (from Nov 29 thru June 28), pink wave 5 has a better chance than usual to truncate. (Please note that truncations are rare though, so when I say that there is an increased chance of a truncation, that means that the chances are now a bit better than “rare”.

One last note, this change to my very long-term count in Silver does not change any of the Fibonacci targets or wave counts I’ve been showing in my webinars all year. It only changes the degree of trend (color) of the labels since the 2011 high.

Sid
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com