How I Correctly Forecasted Market Direction Both Before and After the Brexit Vote:
Many traders have been surprised by two events recently. First, the surprise Brexit vote on Friday, June 22 (overnight, before the US markets opened), and second, the surprise stock market bounce starting on Tuesday, June 26. Here are the EXACT communications I sent out to paid subscribers just prior to the two events:
From the mid-week (June 20, 2016) edition of EWP Screenshots:
First, here’s my short-term wave count and projected market direction prior to the June 23 Brexit vote. The following screenshot was included in the Wednesday, June 20 edition of EWP ScreenShots. Notice that based on the Sentient Trader (Hurst) “composite line” (CL), I was projecting that price would move down through late Monday, June 25 and then bounce from there.
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Supplementary email to EWP ScreenShots subscribers sent Monday, June 27, at about 5PM (CDT):
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“Dear EWP ScreenShots subscriber,
During the weekend {June 26} “Counts” webinar, I stated that I was expecting a relief bounce soon in the SPX, but was unsure whether a short-term bottom was “in” yet or not. In my labeling, I left room for additional downside. We got the answer today, as further downward movement ensued. (See the attached 90-minute updated chart).
I’m still not quite sure if the knee-jerk downdraft associated with the surprise Brexit vote result is finished yet, but a tight cluster of Fibonacci targets was hit today (1999.2 – 1999.8), and at least so far, is being respected.
Hurst widened its 20-week cycle trough window a bit today to accommodate for the lower prices, but as you can see on the chart, the composite line is still showing June 24 as the projected bottoming day. Based on the Hurst analysis, I’m still expecting a bounce quite soon, and IF wave 1 green is finished, the expected corrective green wave 2 should rebound to the 2049-2067 area next, through mid-July.
IF price continues strongly to the downside, the next lower Fib target is 1929.6, where pink wave 3 would equal pink wave 1 times 2.618.” {The following screenshot was attached}:
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Supplementary Email to EWP ScreenShots subscribers sent Thursday, June 28, at about 5PM (CDT):
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“Dear EWP ScreenShots subscribers,
The SPX has continued ripping higher for a third day, and has now retraced over .786 of the “Brexit drop”. I’m very happy to have predicted this bounce (in the Monday night email to subscribers), and am also happy to have surmised (in the June 26 “Counts” webinar) that the coming green wave 2 retracement would likely be deep. As a reminder, I expected the bounce to be deep because of the degree (20-week) of the trough expected in late June (June 24 (CL).
The composite line projected retracement top of July 15 has hopefully prevented early entry into short positions. Please note that the suggested composite line peak on July 15 is still in place, but the subsequent downward movement is not projected to be strong (initially) from that date. As a matter of fact, the composite line is giving the appearance of a “double top” now, on July 15 and on August 4. (See the attached screenshot of the short-term Sentient Trader analysis).
So considering the size of the bounce so far, and the fact that it has occurred very quickly, and very much in a straight line, I’ve had to move the alternate black X? label back into the future.
As I mentioned in a quick update email a couple of weeks back as a caveat to calling a top , the pink wave 5? never hit a known Fibonacci target, and was inordinately shorter than a normal 5th wave. If the Brexit drop actually ended pink wave 4?, then we now have a target for the end of pink wave 5? (and therefore black X?) at 2177.87. (See the attached updated SPX 240-minute chart, with the projected main and alternate counts.)
Admittedly, this last three-day up-burst is large enough now to suggest that the alternate is easily as likely as the main, if not more likely at this point.” {The following screenshots were attached}:
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While some forecasting services send out a lot of marketing material bragging about their “calls”, did they really “call” the drop ahead of the Brexit, AND the strong bounce that followed two trading days later? We’re their calls specific enough to be tradeable? Were they correct regarding forecasted direction from a specific date and/or Fibonacci target?
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The bottom line: My unique system of utilizing a combination of Elliott Wave and Hurst cycle analysis did a fantastic job of forecasting market direction in the days surrounding the Brexit vote. Did your current forecasting service catch both the down and up moves recently in such a way that could be traded profitably?
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Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds. Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items. A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterward, whether they were able to attend “live” or not. Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week. All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus. Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable.
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Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepredictions.com
http://elliottwavepredictions.com
