Updated Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis of 30-year Treasury Bonds (ZB futures contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.
It’s been a few weeks since I last posted, and as I pondered potential topics to cover, an updated analysis of Treasury Bonds once again presented itself as a logical option. Treasuries appear to be nearing a very important large-degree trend change. So here’s an updated analysis, based on the unique combination of Elliott Wave (and its associated Fibonacci price targets), and Hurst Cycle analysis, as computed by the amazing Sentient Trader software.
First, the monthly chart (below) shows the ZB continuous futures contract from 1978 to present. If my long-term Elliott Wave labeling is correct, and it hasn’t changed substantially for a very long time, burgundy wave 5 will equal the net traveled by burgundy wave 1 through 3 at 174.^19, and black wave 5 will equal the net traveled of black waves 1 through 3 at 175^02. That very tight cluster of targets hasn’t been hit yet, but the ZB contract came pretty close when it peaked at 169^15 on February 11. Is the top in? Maybe. Let’s take a closer look . .
Moving on to the weekly chart (below), the narrowing price action from the January 2015 high through the December 30, 2015 low appears to have carved out a textbook Elliott Wave triangle. That interpretation is supported by the ensuing strong up-blast from the December 30, 2015 low through the recent peak on February 11. Thrusts from triangles are terminal, which means that when they are finished, the pattern is complete and a strong reversal is likely. As a matter of fact, many terminal thrusts from triangles are completely retraced almost as quickly as they unfolded.
Finally, the daily chart (below) shows the blue wave 4 triangle very clearly, followed by the up-thrust. The thrust from the triangle should subdivide internally into 5 (pink) waves. So far, it appears to me that 5 pink waves have yet to unfold. I can see pink waves 1, 2, 3 and 4, but a 5th wave up is required to complete the pattern, in my opinion. Also, today’s fairly strong upward movement is creating what appears to be a completed (green) ABC zigzag for pink wave 4. The Sentient Trader “composite line”, which takes all cycles into consideration and projects general market direction was expecting an 80-day cycle low on about March 5. While that still may occur, it seems more likely at this juncture that the 80-day cycle bottomed yesterday (Wed, March 2).
The “composite line” is expecting upward movement in the ZB contract initially through March 29. That might be the top, although the composite line (CL) is expecting an almost-as-high peak on about April 29. Based on the projected topping zones for the coming 20-week, 40-week, and 18-month cycles, I’m currently projecting that April 29 date to be the end of the so-called “30-yr cycle” in treasuries.
As we near major (large-degree) cycle peaks or troughs, it will important to monitor any adjustments in the Hurst cycle analysis, as the projected “turn dates” can and do “morph” slightly from day to day, based on the development of shorter-term cycles. Also, truncated 5th waves are not uncommon at large degree tops and bottoms. What’s the best way to stay on top of developments? Subscribe to one of my paid services! Has your current subscription service correctly forecasted market direction in bonds in recent quarters? Does it combine multiple robust methodologies of technical analysis to derive a high confidence directional forecast? If not, you really should give my paid subscription services a serious look.
Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds. Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items. A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterward, whether they were able to attend “live” or not. Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week. All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus. Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable.