The Current State of the US Stock Market, the US Dollar, and Gold. A free blog post by Sid Norris of ElliottWavePlus.com

The S&P-500: The January rise in the US stock market went parabolic before topping on January 26. The 11.84% drop over the next 2 weeks (thru February 9) carved out a clear 5-wave impulse to the downside. The recovery so far appears to be choppy, overlapping, and corrective. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the aggressive move down thru Feb 9 is therefore very likely to be a wave 1 of a new downtrend, or a wave A within a 4th wave zigzag. Therefore, another 5-wave wave structure to the downside, taking out the Feb 9 low of 2532.69 would be a high probability expectation. Also possible within Elliott Wave theory is that the drop from Jan 26 thru Feb 9 was wave A within a wave 4 triangle. Only 4 of the 5 legs of a triangle are required to be a zigzag or zigzag combination. One of the legs can be something else, including a 5-wave impulse.

What’s Next for the US Dollar? (by Sid Norris of ElliottWavePlus.com)

The US Dollar has been quite weak since the beginning of last year. Will it continue to weaken? The monthly chart below shows my long-time main Elliott Wave count for the US Index, an unfinished ending contracting diagonal starting at the 1985 high. This wave count correctly expected the US Dollar to top near a .618 retacement of the downward wave from July 2001 through March 2008. That top came in early January 2017, and the Dollar has surprised many by moving strongly lower ever since. Hurst cycle analysis also correctly projected that top, and from a long-term perspective is quite bearish the Dollar moving forward, potentially all the way to the year 2027.

An Important Large-Cap Gold-Mining Stock (ABX) is Still Searching for a Bottom

Gold, Silver and Platinum were up big again on a “Fed” day yesterday, a recurring motif in recent quarters. Yesterday’s bounce was fairly large, especially in many of the large and mid-cap precious metals mining stocks. I’ve been projecting for a long time that a large cycle trough was due near year-end 2017, so is the bottom in on precious metals or not? Let’s take a look.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks Were Up Big Yesterday. Is the Bottom “In”?

Gold, Silver and Platinum were up big again on a “Fed” day yesterday, a recurring motif in recent quarters. Yesterday’s bounce was fairly large, especially in many of the large and mid-cap precious metals mining stocks. I’ve been projecting for a long time that a large cycle trough was due near year-end 2017, so is the bottom in on precious metals or not? Let’s take a look.