Are Interest Rates Topping? Has Inflation Peaked?
The following video clip from our April 10, 2022 Weekly Counts Webinar provide timely food for thought on those two questions. Possible conclusions are based on Elliott wave theory and its associated Fibonacci price targets, multi-decades trendlines (on semilog charts), and current sentiment conditions.
Rising Interest Rates and Inflation are all over the news. Conventional expectations of the directional market reactions to news have been consistently wrong. Investors are confused and worried. It’s time to get technical.
Technical analysis eliminates the worry and confusion. It ignores mainstream financial media, and their ridiculous, news-based explanations of why the market moves up and down. Elliott Wave theory, Cycle analysis and Sentiment Conditions are more important to traders and investors now than ever before.
The attached video clip was recorded on Sunday, April 12, and was a small portion of Sid’s Weekly Counts Webinar for ElliottWavePlus.com subscribers (Pro Plan and up).
In the video, Sid Norris examines TNX (bond yields), and TIP (Treasury Inflation Protection bonds). Are rates going to continue to skyrocket unabated? Is the aggressive inflationary period over?
Additional evidence of Sentiment extremes in bonds were presented later in the webinar. Here are current screenshots of current Sentiment Conditions in the ZB contract (30yr bonds), the ZN contract (10yr bonds), and the Japanese Yen, which is historically highly correlated with bonds. These screenshots show that Commercials are expecting rates to top about now (and bonds bottom), while retail traders, who are almost always wrongly positioned at major trend changes, think that rates will continue to aggressively rise. Premium Plan subscribers receive Sentiment Conditions screenshots on many tradable items nightly.
Every Wednesday and Sunday, we provide EWP Screenshots to subscribers (Basic Plan and up) on over two dozen popular trading instruments. The following are the last nine of those for the S&P-500, starting Feb 23, 2022, the day before the first shots were fired in the Russia – Ukraine war:
How Accurate has Elliott Wave Plus been on the S&P-500 recently?
How accurate has Elliot Wave Plus been on the S&P-500 Recently?
Here are our nine most recent EWP Screenshots of Sid’s predictive roadmaps for the S&P-500
Every Wednesday and Sunday, we provide EWP Screenshots to subscribers (Basic Plan and up) on over two dozen popular trading instruments. The following are the last nine of those for the S&P-500, starting Feb 23, 2022, the day before the first shots were fired in the Russia – Ukraine war:
Sid’s Recent Call on GDX (Gold Miners ETF)
The following screenshot was provided to all Elliott Wave Plus paying subscribers on Wednesday night, May 29, 2019:
Combining Elliott Wave, Fibonacci and Hurst Cycle Analysis to Predict the Future Direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
The following charts include my main and alternate wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, starting with the quarterly, then monthly, weekly and daily charts. Hurst cycle analysis is also utilized at all time frames.
Technical Analysis of the CRB Index (the Commodities Complex) by Sid Norris from ElliottWavePlus.com
The weekly chart (below) of the CRB Index (cash) shows my main Elliott wave count and associated Fibonacci price targets, as well as Cycle analysis, utilizing both the Hurst system and a custom 3.5-year model. (Click on the chart to enlarge).
My Current Analysis of the S&P-500 by Sid Norris from ElliottWavePlus.com
From an Elliott Wave perspective, my top two wave counts are shown. The main count is that an incomplete expanding leading diagonal to the downside is underway starting at the September 21 all-time high. The alternate (shown with question marks) is that an intermediate degree (black) wave 5 to the upside commenced at the December 24 low.
Sid’s Elliott Wave Analysis of McEwen Mining Inc. (ticker symbol MUX)
After my recent post on First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG), I’ve received a number of requests for my current wave count on McEwen Mining Inc. (MUX), another highly regarded stock in the precious metals mining sector.
Sid’s Elliott Wave Analysis of First Majestic Silver Corp (ticker symbol AG)
Since AG’s August 2011 high of $26.88, the company’s stock price tumbled all the way down to $2.40 per share in January 2016. Let’s look at the price action in AG starting at that January 2016 low from an Elliott Wave perspective. (Click on the chart to enlarge)
How To Spot Fake Financial News
Wouldn’t it be nice to see a financial news report that simply reported the facts? For instance, the following would be an example of accurate reporting: “The stock market was down X percent today.” But the following is how financial media always reports the news: “The stock market was down X points today on {insert a rationale here}.” Stating ANY REASON for movements in the stock market is more than suspect. It is the perfect example of fake news.
A Chartist’s View of New Gold Inc. (ticker NGD)
New Gold Incorporated is a mid-tier gold mining company with mining operations in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. NGD stock made its all-time low of 74 cents per share in December 2008, and its all-time high of $14.15 per share in September 2011. New Gold is one of the holdings in the two most popular gold mining ETF’s, GDX and GDXJ. Its annual revenue is currently about $725 million. Let’s examine a chart of NGD starting at the 2011 high from a technical point of view.