U.S Dollar Index – Algo Trade Signals and Sentiment Positioning 2020

U.S Dollar Index – Algo Trade Signals and Sentiment Positioning 2020

It’s been another profitable month for our Nightly Algo Report for Premium Plan subscribers here at ElliottWavePlus.com. In this post. we’ll provide an in-depth look at the U.S Dollar Index, and the trade signals that our proprietary momentum algorithm has been producing. Remember, this is just one of twenty popularly traded items covered for our Premium Plan subscribers, who receive screenshots every evening (M-F), along with a summary “check list” PDF.  Click here for a  complete list of items covered.

Who Could Have Predicted This Huge Down Move In The Market?

On November 15, 2019, the S&P-500 reached 3120 for the first time ever. For the next 63 trading days, the S&P continued relentlessly higher, topping on Feb 19 at 3393. Just four days later, the S&P was back down to 3120, almost instantly erasing three full months of gains! Nobody could have seen that coming ahead of time, could they? We know of at least one person who did.

Have We Reached An Unsustainable Situation?

Gold & Bonds are typically correlated. As of this writing, that historic relationship appears to be intact.  Compare that to Gold & the U.S dollar. Those two items typically move opposite (inverse) of each other. However, since mid-July 2019, they have generally been moving up and down together.
Bonds, which are the most popular alternative to stock ownership in the investment world, typically move opposite of the stock market. However, ever since the start of the new year (2020), stocks, bonds, gold and the US Dollar have all been rallying together.  Is this a distortion that has developed because of mid-October 2019 Fed announcement of QE?  Many think so.  If so however, there was a delayed reaction of 2.5 months.

The Current State of the US Stock Market, the US Dollar, and Gold. A free blog post by Sid Norris of ElliottWavePlus.com

The S&P-500: The January rise in the US stock market went parabolic before topping on January 26. The 11.84% drop over the next 2 weeks (thru February 9) carved out a clear 5-wave impulse to the downside. The recovery so far appears to be choppy, overlapping, and corrective. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the aggressive move down thru Feb 9 is therefore very likely to be a wave 1 of a new downtrend, or a wave A within a 4th wave zigzag. Therefore, another 5-wave wave structure to the downside, taking out the Feb 9 low of 2532.69 would be a high probability expectation. Also possible within Elliott Wave theory is that the drop from Jan 26 thru Feb 9 was wave A within a wave 4 triangle. Only 4 of the 5 legs of a triangle are required to be a zigzag or zigzag combination. One of the legs can be something else, including a 5-wave impulse.

What’s Next for the US Dollar? (by Sid Norris of ElliottWavePlus.com)

The US Dollar has been quite weak since the beginning of last year. Will it continue to weaken? The monthly chart below shows my long-time main Elliott Wave count for the US Index, an unfinished ending contracting diagonal starting at the 1985 high. This wave count correctly expected the US Dollar to top near a .618 retacement of the downward wave from July 2001 through March 2008. That top came in early January 2017, and the Dollar has surprised many by moving strongly lower ever since. Hurst cycle analysis also correctly projected that top, and from a long-term perspective is quite bearish the Dollar moving forward, potentially all the way to the year 2027.

Thoughts on the Current State of the Stock Market (and other stuff) – A blog post by Sid Norris from ElliottWavePlus.com

Without further ado, here are the current combined Hurst projections on several items of interest:
1) US Stock Market: a major top in late 2017 is expected, to be followed by an ABC correction through the year 2024. (And no, I haven’t called the top yet like those super blogging, email blasting, google search manipulators! (-:) From an Elliott Wave perspective, the 5-wave impulse up from the March 2009 low is likely to end soon, though. That bull market will have lasted about 8.5 years, so even if the 2009-2017 bull was a very bullish cycle-degree wave 1 (my main count), a multi-year (cycle-degree) correction would be next.